Comparable / BL3 / Energy

[RichieP]

Here is the $ 7.40 winner of yesterday's 5th Race at Dmr.

Let me start by entering ALL sprint lines showing in his pp's ( I do NOT consider 7.5 a sprint even though it is 1 turn)

Here is the bl/bl screen
Please note the "SCBL" readouts

pay attention to line 4 if u can the SA 7f line

[RichieP]

here is the e/l graph of the same races

again please focus on line 4

[RichieP]

one more screen please

here is the energy generator screen

look over to the right side under the "energy" header

4 of the 5 lines showing have a very tight "f3" range between 30.67 and 31.07. This is EXTREMELY small range.

Which line is "outa whack"?
Again look at line 4

[RichieP]

My reasons for this post?

1) That xtreme late line 4 is the ONLY usable line that projects him using Val 3 and it's blf<7.5 guidelines. If line one is used instead he does not project using same lines for others.

2) This line is obviously NOT comparable to how he distributes his energy. The race WAS on an off track granted but in following paceline selection methods u land on this line unless going to "way back" land.

3) Modeling implications: If one is modeling the meet like I am this line is totally out of whack with what is winning at THIS distance.

A lot of thought has to go into modeling a track in my opinion. It is not a matter of punching in lines real quick and expecting magic.

This race is a bitch in my opinion thats why I post


NONE of the above matters if:
1) different program is used not limiting blf
2) different criteria for line selection is used
3) You are NOT using modeling of races that have run before to aid in decisions today.


safe weekend

Rich

[Phase III Lives]

good post ... just don't throw the baby out with the bath water