Saratoga Turf Beware

[shoeless]

I know quite a few of you wont notice this or probably wont care but so far at races 1 mile or more post positions 8 on out are 4 out of 93.Food for thought. Shoeless

[alydar_ David]

Thanks for the heads up, shoeless.

:>)

[Phase III Lives]

that's good info ... the one other thing you need to know though is how many of those 93 actually had 8 or more. I haven't even looked at Saratoga this year but it's another variable. If 85 of those races only had 7 runners or less then posts 8 on up would be 4 outta 8... just another perspective.

[shoeless]

That's 4 winners out of 93 horses that have started out of post position 8 or higher.I dont know if that will make a difference on what you posted or not.But do what you like I wont playing those posts until they show me something.Jeff

[Phase III Lives]

Well I took a different take on this kind of thing back when I calculated my own impact values for PP's back in the 80's - it was quite informative and at times profitable - but it just got to be one of those things that I said - enuff !

What I am saying is this .... just saying 4 out of all 93 races could be misleading IF IF IF ...

say 85 of those races had 7 horses. What are the odds of any horse from the 8 hole winning? 0 %.... no chance at all. So in the remaining races - say they all had only 8 horses. Of those 8 races (93-85=8), 4 were won by the 8 horse.

Now should I look at it as 4 out of 93 (4%)? or 4 out of 8(50%) ? A huge difference.

[shoeless]

I think there is a little confusion here.It is NOT 4 out of 93 races, it's 4 out of the 93 HORSES that have started OUT of those post positions.There is a big difference.

[Phase III Lives]

Well that is significant ... and very valid. If there are 8 horses per race you'd expect the 8 to win about 16%, 10 horses 10 % but they are winning less than 5%,

[shoeless]

To take this discussion a little further post 6 has only won 1 out of 36 starts and post 7 has done the best 6 out of 36 starts.I guess the main thing Im trying to get across is that due to TODAY'S RACING I believe you cant use any of the Sartin Programs 100% of what is written the follow ups.Maybe you have to use some of what was written in the white paper even though it was written way back when. Shoeless

[cryptic1]

I'm also guessing that your numbers make no distinction between the
inner and outer turf courses. In the past when I collected such data, there
was a significant difference between the two in relationship to the outside
post positions.

cryptic1