Excessive Analysis

[socantra]

I just spent a half hour over on PA reading a thread analysing every second of the Belmont Stakes, including how wide each horse went, when each jockey asked the horse, the relative competence of the jockeys and endless other factors that may have affected the running of the Belmont last Saturday.

After a while, I just wanted to scream; " Hey guys; its just a horse race. One horse goes to the front and the others try to catch him." and "The jockeys are standing up on the back of 1000 pound animals running 35 mph, and have very little control anyway".

Its good to be back home. Thanks for the sanity of Jimmy Bradshaw, Richie, Bill, Ted and too many other people to mention on Pace and Cap. Its a very crazy world out there.

Dick

[shoeless]

Dick,I hate to sound like one of those PA guys but Rags was lucky to have Johnny V on her back.After that stumble from the gate a lot of jocks wouldnt have won that race.While it's true the horse runs the race that person who is on the horses back should get some of the credit.Jeff

[socantra]

Of course Rags to Riches was lucky to have John Velazquez in the saddle when she stumbled, just as Curlin was lucky to have Robby Albarado in the saddle when he stumbled at the start of the Preakness. These guys are all top notch athletes and deserve enormous amounts of credit.

Every jockey in the race was a Grade 1 professional. They all routinely make the difficult look easy and occasionally perform the impossible. They are the tops of their profession. That doesn't mean they control the running of the race.

I suspect that if Velazquez had complete control, he would have preferred that Rags to Riches not stumble.

Dick

[shoeless]

How about when a jockey gets out on the front end and is able to slow the fractions down so the horse is able to wire the field.Is the jockey controlling the race then?

[admin]

Hi Jeff
yes but how can we know that the jockey is going to
or can???

I think there might be a bit of a danger to
my handicapping if I had to wonder about that
before the race,

I agree with socantra
and do best with those words
a horse either sets the pace or is over taken by another horse

and I like another one from Jim Bradshaw
"Some horses are in the race just to get beat"
Have a great day
GS
Bill

[Fast4522]

If the race was run again, the filly would win again, in this crop of 3 year olds there were no stars but the filly.

[socantra]

How about when a jockey gets out on the front end and is able to slow the fractions down so the horse is able to wire the field.Is the jockey controlling the race then?

Absolutely not. The jockey is not going to get out in front unless he has a fast front running horse and is not going to be able to set slow fractions unless there is no horse willing to pass him.

The horse runs the race and the pace depends mostly upon the matchup of the horses in the race. Obviously, some jockeys are much better than others, but even they can't make a slow horse go fast and very rarely have any success trying to change the running style of the horse.

Dick

[socantra]

If the race was run again, the filly would win again, in this crop of 3 year olds there were no stars but the filly.

Who knows. Any number of things can happen in a horse race and that particular race will never be run again.

It was a great race though and a very good performance by Rags to Riches.

Dick

[shoeless]

I have to disagee jockeys can slow the pace down so there will be some gas in the tank left at the end.There was a jock who rode the Philly,NJ and MD circuit named Rick Wilson.This guy was a master at controlling the race with early speed types matchup or not,it was like he had a clock in his head.Nobody is saying to worry about it but it does happen.

[admin]

Hello Jeff

I remember the name, Mom was always making exacta boxes
Bravo Wilson and Julie Krone
at Monmouth

Was RW a top jockey down in MD?

[socantra]

I have to disagee jockeys can slow the pace down so there will be some gas in the tank left at the end.There was a jock who rode the Philly,NJ and MD circuit named Rick Wilson.This guy was a master at controlling the race with early speed types matchup or not,it was like he had a clock in his head.Nobody is saying to worry about it but it does happen.

What did he do when another early horse passrd him? Reset his clock.

Dick

[shoeless]

Dick,HAHAHA He also had trouble when they moved the time back or up an hour.

[xtb]

What's to stop a jockey from wearing a gps speedometer? I just looked at some and they can be worn like a wristwatch and show the current speed. Seems that if a jockey could just concentrate on keeping his horse at an optimal speed (if possible), he wouldn't have to worry about what the other horses are doing.

[socantra]

Dick,HAHAHA He also had trouble when they moved the time back or up an hour.

I don't mean to demean Rick Wilson in any way. Obviously a fine jock. Still #24 in lifetime wins, with almost 5000. He also was in the money better than 50% of the time. The only jockeys I can find who dominated their circuits as strongly are Pat Day and Russell Baze.

Still, he lost 80% of his races and that's much better than most. I have no doubt that a talented jock can make a difference and possibly even be the deciding factor under certain circumstances, but he still has to have the horse under him and in most situations exercises very limited control over the race.

Dick

[socantra]

What's to stop a jockey from wearing a gps speedometer? I just looked at some and they can be worn like a wristwatch and show the current speed. Seems that if a jockey could just concentrate on keeping his horse at an optimal speed (if possible), he wouldn't have to worry about what the other horses are doing.

Just what is the optimal speed of a horse race and exactly where is the knob on the horse where you set it?

[chris]

Lucky, unlucky, smart jockey, fair pace, false pace, who knows before the running of the race. And how do you handle the stumble factor?

The only question of concern is Did you cash a ticket?

My analysis waltzed around the numbers and was based upon a characterization of the Preakness. It was a war, or would "cage match" be more to your taste; there would be casualties and there were. I made this judgement right after Curlin outnodded Street sense for the Black-eyed Susans - and then I trusted and acted on that judgement.

Preparing for the Belmon was one of those few occasions where I had an opinion before I saw the past performances. I knew what I was looking for;
something different, something fresh, something with an up-side, the filly of course. Ran her numbers through the perceptor in RDSS, hid Curlin, and we know who came out on top. All I was looking for was confirmation and I got it.

If only it was always this clear!

Regards,
Chris

[xtb]

Just what is the optimal speed of a horse race and exactly where is the knob on the horse where you set it?

I don't think I have to say that if you go too fast or slow early, your final time will suffer. Many people think that jockeys have the ability to slow a horse during a race, to varying degrees. I would think that with a little trial and error, with a particular horse, at a given distance, an optimal speed (or range) through each fraction could be determined that would produce a horse's fastest final time (over a series of races or workouts). I do realize there are many other factors that will affect a horse's performance but when the subject came up about jockeys controlling the horses' speed, it made me think how I would try to do it instead of guessing about whether I was going too fast or not.

Anyway, I was just wondering out loud, that's all.