Proper pace line selection

[froggy]

Someone please correct me if I don't have this right.

As I understand it the basic rule for pace line selection is to use the best of the last three at the same distance (sprint/route) and surface.
If the any of the last three are an off track or wrong distance then go down to the next one untill you have found good three lines to select from and then throw out those that have 8 of more final beaten lengths.

I didn't bet this race but now wish I had.
Using those rules this is the first at Belmont today.
Notice how far down I went for a pace line.

[froggy]

This I what the payoffs were.
A straight $1 tri looks pretty good.

[jms62]

I had the 5 :(

[froggy]

JMS,

I hope you backed it up.

Froggy

[admin]

Hello Froggy

Nice work I would have used line 4 if the APV and CR were better
so I woulld have lost this race sincee i went to line 1 instead
your very close in your thinking and there are no rules
only guidelines about the best of the last 3 comparable
and move to line 4 if there is a non usable line
I sure soulda woulda coulda used line 4 but I'm trying to stay consistant
with my apv crs Nice work to you

[admin]

Hello again

Here is a screen of the BLBL using both lines for horse 2

Line 4 is on top line 2 is way down

[mufasa]

Froggy:

I had the 2 and also hit the 25 exacta in race 1 at Belmont. I believe Pizzolla has said that when it comes to turf racing all pace lines should be considered. The 4th race back for Stashed Away was a very good race and the Perceptor ranked it 1. I personally never limit myself to the last three races but do require that if I do go back past the last three it must be for such a race. When Sartin talked about pace line selection he mentioned pluses and zeros as well as last three races. The fourth race back was definitely a plus race. Additionally, the last race for #2 is what sent him home for a rest and therefore going back to the fourth race back seemed like a reasonable consideration especially because of the ranking.

Pace line selection is always an interesting subject and I am thinking no absolutely best single method. This is why I can not wait to hear how the “Hat” employs the power line.

Robert

[jms62]

JMS,

I hope you backed it up.

Froggy

Of course not Froggy... And Mufsa, I also consider all lines for Turf Routes... I only consider contenders that have finished 5th or better in the last race... I only have a sample size of around 60 or so races at Belmont since I have been tracking but the winner has finished in the top 5 in his most recent start 82% of the time (Non Madien)

[admin]

Very nice post Robert :)

[Ted Craven]

While I didn't play this race (just got back from the bush), what's important to me is a consistently applied method, so on one hand I can respect Bill's approach for not going back beyond 3 because the horse was a lower 'class' animal (even though that 4th line was still its 3rd turf line back).

On the other hand, one could construct a consistent approach which also included that if there were no recent lines (i.e. layoff), then it's rather splitting hairs to say you'll use a line from 262 days ago but not 345 days ago. I'd be interested in knowing what the horse was capable of when fit. We don't really know how fit she is today (though regular 5f and 4f workouts). Maybe this dovetails with Pizzola saying use all the turf lines (open the window wide), but it does also seem to work into a consistent approach which emphacises recent over ancient performance.

If a horse had been running this season (i.e. all the other horses in the race), I personally would be less likely to go back beyond 3 comparable lines even if I could, because the recent 3 lines are giving probably the best read on current condition.

That's using just one method of paceline selection (best of last 3 comparable). Picking power lines from the entire performance record may be another, different but entirely consistent method. Consistent, methodological.

.02 cents...

Ted

[froggy]

Going back very far eats away at my stomach when I bet on it, but has so far been profitable.
Old habits die hard.

Froggy

[admin]

Thanks Ted

your points make me feel better
I really enjoy post like this were we (I)
can learn from a race that happens over and over
My pace line selection is what it is ..
I feel I get a better feel when I stay consistant