practice race

[simon]

sprinters and routers

Hello Rich and Jim

May I show you the steps as I have been seeing in the thread
How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances?

I did this race that Mr Cochran posted in the selections area
but I was busy with the family to do it then

The race is race 6 from Calder

here is what I see \\

Running styles

1 Sus
2.NF
3.Sus
4.EP
5.EP sprinter
6.Early
7.sus
8.sus

Power lines

1 Line 2 8.3 23.6 48.5 114.8 147.9 7 5 5 3
3.Line 6 8.5 24.3 49.0 114.4 148.9 6 5 4 1
4.Line 2 8.3 23.6 48.5 114.8 147.9 3 3 3 2
line 6 6.0 22.6 46.6 59.6 113.4 1 1 1 1
5.Line 1 5.5 22.8 47.0 100.2 107.0 3 2 1 1
Line 4 6.5 22.7 47.0 113.7 120.7 1 1 1 1
6.Line 3 8.0 23.8 47.8 113.3 142.6 1 1 1 1
7.Line 1 8.0 23.8 47.8 113.3 142.6 6 5 5 3
Line 3 7.0 22.6 46.1 113.0 127.6 5 7 3 1
8.Line 1 8.0 24.2 47.9 113.9 141.6 16 7 2 2


projected pace
from horse 4 and 5 i would say like 46.8 113.6

I thought that the 4 and 5 would bother the 6 and My first bet was the 7
I thought the 6 -7 tandem would reverse again and the 7 would win

my second win bet would hav been the fasted route horse the 6

the 5 won and paid 16.00
Pace of race was 24.33 48.36 114.19 141.14 2 2 1 1

Thanks
Ragin

[RichieP]

Ok let me post the regular pdf past performances for the field. Then I will ask Jim to look at the race and comment ok?

Please be a bit patient as this is the holidays and one of the last things on his mind right now is racing. Having said that Ragin I will definitley show him the race and I'm sure he will comment in a way that will help you.

A very Merry Christmas to you and the "Ragin" clan :)

[RichieP]

Here is the field

[RichieP]

The rest of the field

[simon]

Hello Jim

I used the steps again and had a nice winner at Fair Ground on Thursday
the 27th I bet races 8 and 9 I rushed with race 8 and got shut out but I would have lost
But race 9 was better.
The race was taken off the turf I worked it this way
Here are my lines

Horse 1 NF No line
Horse 2 EP Line 3 8.5 24.6 49.4 113.6 144.4 3 1 1 1
Horse 3 EP Line 1 8.0 22.7 46.0 111.4 136.7 3 2 6 7
Horse 4 EP Line 2 8.0 23.8 47.6 112.5 137.6 4 3 1 1
Horse 5 NF No line
Horse 6 S Line 5 8.0 23.0 46.0 110.6 135.8 6 6 4 4
Horse 7 SP Line 3 8.5 24.5 48.2 112.6 144.1 5 7 3 1
Horse 8 scr
Horse 9 P Line 5 8.0 23.4 47.6 113.2 139.6 3 3 2 2
Horse10 P Line 2 8.5 23.8 47.9 113.3 144.3 2 2 2 2
Horse11 NF No line

I saw no early need the leads Remember this was a turf race but was on the dirt

when i was looking for power lines I saw horse # 6
46.0 and 110.6

I ran the race in KGEN /thoromation

I have made some screen shots of the happy results

[simon]

Here are some of my readouts using the these lines



Here are all the contenders

I took out the 3 and 9 because the total energy was so low



when I did this the Total energy was so close I just used the 1 adjust



Jim here is were you and Richies post and steps have helped me

I saw the 6 and that it ran well against the fastest pace of race

I new it did it on the dirt like this race became



But thoromation left no doubt



The 6 won and paid $31.00



Thaks RK

[RichieP]

Tremendous hit Ragin!

I am gonna put up the raw pp's from TM here if folks want to look at the race ok?

As Ragin states the race came off the grass and was run at 8f on the main track

I'll show Jim this race Ragin ok? He is all tied up with the holidays and his Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl in a couple of days so please don't take his silence as anything but being focused on non racing stuff right now :)

Tremendous hit man. Really

ok let's see some pp's

[RichieP]

rest of Ragin's field

[simon]

Thank you very much for adding the past performances for the race :)

The race means a lot to me

I have been working at this

I just had a great feeling about number 6 from the quiet match up

point of lines selection

I sure will look forward to what Jim can add

Hope your sooners do well !!!

Thank you Jim Rich and # 6 Keltish Lass

[raceman5]

Rich,
Question for you on horses who run aberant pace lines. These are pace lines in a horses pp's that are out of wack. If a horse is running in 6f sprints and most of his or hers lines our in the 46 range and it has a race where they ran 44 and it was competitive. (competive to me means a horse that is 5l within the leader at the half and finish) would you use this line as a power line? In the above example wouldn't you consider the 6 horse line of 1:10 an aberant line to use?

Bob

*** A "Power Line" is the fastest pace of race showing where the horse finished competitively. Regardless of track or where it is in the past performances. This is Jim's teaching Bob. Ragin has the sucker nailed man. - RichieP ***

[Capcondo]

Thank you very much for adding the past performances for the race :)

The race means a lot to me

I have been working at this

I just had a great feeling about number 6 from the quiet match up

point of lines selection

I sure will look forward to what Jim can add

Hope your sooners do well !!!

Thank you Jim Rich and # 6 Keltish Lass

I joined this group about 3 months ago and have been a regular reader of the posts but have never chimed in.

Congratulations on a nice hit. The line on the six is probably the one I would have chosen. This line clearly shows the horse's ability on the dirt against fast 1c and 2c times.

But, it is from a track that runs one turn miles. Tracks like Belmont, Churchill, Arlington Park, and Hollywood come to mind. So, if I am going to use a one turn mile, it has to be much faster. I don't refrain from using one turn mile lines. I just make sure they are quite a bit faster than the two turn route lines they are competing against. The HAT talks about one turn routes in his MU book.

Richie, I know you put a lot of time into this and I want you to know it is very helpful.

The example races that are worked over a one or two week period are great because it gives a great deal of time to think about how they are run. I think it would be very useful to throw a non-bettable race in there from time to time to identify the factors that make it unbettable

Thanks again,

Tim

** Weolcome Tim! Thank you for jumping in and look forward to more. ** RichieP