Passing Races your #1 win weapon

[JIGSAW]

I heard a person who had been handicapping for 35 years on this sight can't win and was going to quit. My heart goes out to this person because for years I was zig zagging and getting tagged. I would lose money and go find more and do it again.

There is good news. If you really want to win follow these instructions.

1. Do not bet Maiden Races.

2. Do not bet 2 year olds.

3. Do not bet into a race unless all the contenders have 3 running lines.

4. Do not bet races with First Time Starters or Foreign horses with no running lines.

These kind of races are what the track connection use with inside information to seperate you from your money. Eliminate these races. With hundreds of races to choose from it makes no sense to donate your money.

I believe Howard would have directed people into the .10 cent Superfecta's.
They pay 3 times what Trifecta's pay and put you in a better bet to return ratio. The bet I use is the 4 horse box for $2.40. With the knowledge and programs we use you will be surprised by your ROI if you are consistent.

This bet also keeps big betters out of tax trouble. You can have a bunch of tickets for .10 cents and still hit big. The person that tries to go to the track with limited funds should love this bet. You can win big without going broke.

Did I follow my own advise tonight. Amazingly enough yes. 12-29-2007 Sam Houston I looked at the card and passed everything per my rules. This left me with race 3-5-9. I boxed my 4 horses for $2.40 a total of 7.20. I bet these and went to my family gathering. I try not to let Horseracing consume me. All I care about is ROI.

Lost the 3, Lost the 5th, and surprise hit race 9 with a 50-1 shot 4th. The Super paid $884.20 for a dollar. My .10 cent ticket pays 10% which is $88.42.

Bet $7.20 made $81.22 Profit. Return on Investment 11.28 thats 11 times your money. Try doing that betting 2 horses to win.

Not bragging just teaching. Discussion is very welcome.

Denny

[MIKE]

--Great philosophy
--limiting your bets to races that you've got full info on all the horses and where you've got a good handle on the race.
--big bang for your buck---small investment/big possible payoff.

[RAMON201]

Thanks for sharing that. Im impressed by the R.O.I on a 10 cent bet. I admit I've always thought that the 10 cent bet was a waste of my time but I can now see that the bang for the buck factor rules.

[bobp]

Good advice on the 10 cent Superfecta. Strong disagreement from some of us

who win on Maidens because we understand training and bringing a horse to

form. Example: 12-29 Tampa Bay Race 11.

#9 $80.20 22.60 9.40 5 nice workouts and a blowout 4 days ago. And

2nd leading rider up today

Nothing wrong with your style. Everyone needs to find a comfort zone and

stick with it.

[shoeless]

Jigsaw,I guess your post was directed at me and I appreciate you taking the time to post it.Im already doing the 4 steps that you have mentioned ,it's no sense making it harder to win going into races that I dont have an understanding of.Jeff

[Bob Cochran]

Good morning. I have read several of your posts, and it led me to ask you these questions out of curiosity. How many different tracks do you attempt
to handicap on a regular basis ?

Do you have a working "model", or any "20 race cycles" on the same tracks?

just curious,
BobC:)

[shoeless]

Hi Bob,I mostly play on weekends and the tracks Im playing are Tampa and Philly.I dont have a model or a 20 race cycle,I guess in part that I really havent focused on a software or method for any length of time.Recently I have been thinking that maybe Im not cut out for using software.Any pointers you can give me would be appreciated as I really respect your opinion.Jeff

[Bob Cochran]

Hi Jeff. You have mentioned synergism on several occasions. This would be adequate. Separate the distances, don't worry about class at this point.

I usually track the median energy expenditure at all distances of a track
I handicap. The most stable numbers usually come from tracks with the longest meets. For instance, Calder, Philadelphia are a couple off the top.

I prefer Calder pricewise. handicap about 50 races at each distance.
Some distances will have a lot fewer instances because they are created by the Racing Secretary to accomodate certain barns. The distances that have
only a few instances can be eliminated from your model, or profile.

Form the 50 or so races, eliminate the extremely hi's and low's and all like
them. The extremely hi and lo i speak of, refers to the factors you are
modeling. This info is produced from checking the winners of the races and
making note of repeating factors. A predictive profile needs about 15 matches.

This having been said, a model, or profile will be relatively accurate in
3 of a nine race card. At some tracks maybe 4 races out of nine or more.
This is due to the "Matchup" in any given race. The more balanced the
race , the more predictive. Balance meaning the collective running styles.
stick to betting 2 horses per race for awhile. No exotics for now.

Hope this helps Jeff.
BobC:)

[JIGSAW]

I was not directing my idea's at any one person. I am only trying to save you time on things that cost me years to learn.

I think it's great that people can win with trainer patterns and angles. You are playing a lot tougher game than I am but some people like to swim with the sharks.

I do not use Jockeys, Trainers, or owners to win races. These are area's I threw out years ago and Howard was right they still serve me today.

I do not model races. It took me 10 years and numerous programs and many thousands of dollars to learn this because I did not let my mind believe it. Why do you think they came up with the dream race? The running styles and the interaction of the horses in this one race which will only take place this one time dictates who will win. Howard dumped modeling in the early 1990's and it is one other thing that can side track you from winning. What happens when your 50 race model says early and they dig up the track and you play early and the track comes up sustained?

Today I am playing CRC, Tp, SA, and Tup. I play Trifecta's and Superfecta's.
I look for horses that have early running potential and late running potential. If the don't have these moves as Jimmy Bradshaw would call them I throw the horse out. I do not go top 5 total energy I will go 10-12 speed ratings deep to get my place ,show and 4th place horse. I have found tightening total energy is what you do to get the winner. Same reason Jimmy said he had trouble with the exoctics but had the winner cold.

Pick a race like you did the other day and we can give it a shot.

Have to go working on the races.

[Bob Cochran]

Jig, remember we are responding to a person who is having a problem
handicapping races profitably. What was attempted , was some advice to
create a working discipline. Everything "works" in racing , at one time or
another.

The reason Howard gave up on modeling, was clients were complaining
their models fail to work on every race. Some people need 100% proficiency
on a factor before believing it "works". It just ain't gonna happen.

There is a reason why the accuracy of most models or profiles is around
33%. It's called the "MATCHUP". This doesn't mean models, pars, or profiles
don't work. If the race running styles are balanced, the model will work.
If not, the Matchup will be the most accurate way to predict the out come.

All types of races are playable, and advice on "not to play maidens, 2yr olds, etc " is ill-advised, as is playing all types of exotics to a person who is
having issues.
BobC:)

[Bob Cochran]

Jeff, check your email. I sent you some info

BobC:)

[bobp]

Yep!

[shoeless]

Bob C and Jigsaw,Although you both have different points of view thanks very much for the advice.I think one of my biggest problems right now is confidence.Take for instance today in the 5th at Calder.Emilio has been kind enough to help me with the match up.One of his plays he taught me led me to the 2 horse in this race and he looked good.So what do I do I second guess myself and play the 4 who is still running and the 2 ends up winning.This not not a good sign for anyone who plays the horses.Jeff

Bob C thanks for the info and Im still working on Taulbot's 39 lessons.

[gl45]

here you again.....we just touch the second guessing game a few days ago, live I might add, and what you do......
Pino

[shoeless]

I heard a person who had been handicapping for 35 years on this sight can't win and was going to quit. My heart goes out to this person because for years I was zig zagging and getting tagged. I would lose money and go find more and do it again.

There is good news. If you really want to win follow these instructions.

1. Do not bet Maiden Races.

2. Do not bet 2 year olds.

3. Do not bet into a race unless all the contenders have 3 running lines.

4. Do not bet races with First Time Starters or Foreign horses with no running lines.

These kind of races are what the track connection use with inside information to seperate you from your money. Eliminate these races. With hundreds of races to choose from it makes no sense to donate your money.

I believe Howard would have directed people into the .10 cent Superfecta's.
They pay 3 times what Trifecta's pay and put you in a better bet to return ratio. The bet I use is the 4 horse box for $2.40. With the knowledge and programs we use you will be surprised by your ROI if you are consistent.

This bet also keeps big betters out of tax trouble. You can have a bunch of tickets for .10 cents and still hit big. The person that tries to go to the track with limited funds should love this bet. You can win big without going broke.

Did I follow my own advise tonight. Amazingly enough yes. 12-29-2007 Sam Houston I looked at the card and passed everything per my rules. This left me with race 3-5-9. I boxed my 4 horses for $2.40 a total of 7.20. I bet these and went to my family gathering. I try not to let Horseracing consume me. All I care about is ROI.

Lost the 3, Lost the 5th, and surprise hit race 9 with a 50-1 shot 4th. The Super paid $884.20 for a dollar. My .10 cent ticket pays 10% which is $88.42.

Bet $7.20 made $81.22 Profit. Return on Investment 11.28 thats 11 times your money. Try doing that betting 2 horses to win.

Not bragging just teaching. Discussion is very welcome.

Denny

Jigsaw,This is some of the best advice I have gotten ,I try not to let Horseracing consume me.That's exactly what I have been doing ,Im no professional gambler and VERY FEW are.I spend more time on this site reading and posting then I do relaxing at home after work.I need to take a step back and start to breathe the fresh air.There's more to life then some dang horse race.Jeff

[shoeless]

APPARENTLY SOMEONE DELETED THIS POST FROM THIS THREAD

Pino
How long ago was it that we all met up for the day at the races? 4 years now?

Remember it was you,Shoe,Jeff(phase111)and his boy Kevin, Bill and his dad Brooks and me.

I remember driving back that evening with Bill and Brooks and telling them how impressed I was with what went on that day. What a day it was.

"Shoe" was focused on turf races only and was doing his "Quinn thing" with the 3rd fraction and also looking at the trainer stuff in the racing form.he came up some horse on the grass and he ran his eyeballs out just missing the win at over 10/1. I remember telling him "how the hell did you come up with him". He showed me his work on the form and there it was. HIS way Pino. HIS way.

You used your spreadsheet that you tried explaining to me (you were very kind cause I was retarded when it came to that stuff! lol). I remember though that you were serious and focused. Where was it Delaware? You used this horse in exactas that you loved and we all watched him win at OVER a hundred dollars with you getting nipped for 2nd in your exacta. My memory is very good paisan! Remember that paisan?

Each of us was doing our own individual thing and we all had a blast. Bill's dad "Brooks" was looking at his class and jockey stuff like he had been doing for years and hit a nice one.

ok so what is the point here?

Jeff here it is straight big bro:

You will NEVER win using or applying any form of matchup handicapping. NEVER. Whether software aided or not. Why? Because it is directly opposite of your beliefs and comfort zone in racing that you have been doing for over 30 years. 30 YEARS of capping.

Here are YOUR strengths and they ARE strengths.
1) Turf racing using your Quinn stuff you showed me. You KNOW what you are doing and know it well. When are you going to FORGET everything on THIS board and play to JEFF's strength??


2) Contender selection and trainer stuff. Honestly NOBODY knew Charlestown in this way better than you back then Jeff. NOBODY. You knew what you were doing and knew it well. When are you going to FORGET everything on THIS board and play to JEFF's strength??

3) Using VERY recent lines to evaluate horses.This is YOU. YOU are VERY good at it. So why and how in the hell do you think the "matchup" in ANY form can be for you? Where looking at lines 7,8,9 are COMMON and NECESSARY to win. You do NOT need the matchup in any form to win. It's killing you and your spirit for the game that you loved for decades.

**** the matchup Jeff
**** software Jeff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

When are you going to FORGET everything on THIS board and play to JEFF's strength??

People reading your posts here and on other boards have NO ****ing clue how sharp you are in areas that YOU are familiar with.

When are you finally going to abandon EVERYTHING you are not and just be yourself and have FUN again?

Jim G gave you the BEST advice right out of the box almost 3 months ago in the thread you started. It is still there for the taking.

Love,
Richie

[shoeless]

Richie,I have got to thank you for fuelling some fire under this fat body of mine.

2008 Resolutions


1)Lose some serious weight I get out of breath tying my shoes.I still miss my Mom and Dog and have been eating like a PIG.I know this is a bad excuse for doing so but that's how I handle depression and stress

2)Become better at the match up then Richie,he made a statement that I cant do it.Got to teach these youngins not to COUNT US OLD MEN OUT when it comes to learnin new things.

Times a wastin got to go study now. Hasta La Vista

[shoeless]

Richie,Tell your Mom I said to have a HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR and you do the same.


Bill,Hope you and your family have a HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR too.


Hope everyone on board has a HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR.Thanks to all you know who you are that helped me get through this depressing year I had.Jeff

[admin]

Thank You Jeff

I hope you achieve all your goals

Me too I need to get back to my studys

I'm deep into the psychology of winning manual