MatchUp Positioning

[VoodooFan]

Don P. on the other thread made a statement ,".....actual positioning."

RichieP stressed that to no end , sprinkled with some " intuition" call on a disagreeing with what a line says vs what a horse, in reality, is going to "actually" do, or has he like to say, "feel".

1) Late horses- are an example of reality. No matter how fast or slow the
pace, they are almost always at the backend of the pack, and only win,
as Mr. Bradshaw says, "when everyhorse in the race stops and waits for
him to pass him."
Adjustments, and /or moving him up in position based on 1st fraction
velocity would not, for the most part, constitute "actual postioning" in the
real world, what most likely would happen , unless every horse in the
race, used up all their energy.

2) 1st call- Richie once mentioned, I think, that Mr. Bradshaw is aware of the
starting positions of various distances and tracks.
A starting position of a 5 furlong to the 1st call vs a starting
position at 1 1/8 , without adjustments, where are their
"actual positions" to the 1st call to begin the MatchUp if
today is 7 1/2 furlongs or 1 and 70yards ?
Now thats where Richie and Mr. Bradshaw post come in with
looking at multiple lines , doing two MatchUps with mixed
distances, surface, and picking the best horse out of group of
one track vs another track, etc.,

Makes for deeper study.

VoodooFan

[simon]

I think I'm starting to see it

Its always been a dark cloud in my confidence that my horses
are too far back at the break - first call 2nd fraction

I would be watching the race and my horse would be way far back
It would move up 6th - 5th - 4th. but by the top of the stretch they would be done

looking at many lines and seeing what a horse needs to win
is helping me

I'm starting to see the Pace of the Race in my lines

Thank You

[don p]

the important factor as you are matching up positions with times is that at some point you have to see the weakness of the race,contenderswill start to appear...

[VoodooFan]

the important factor as you are matching up positions with times is that at some point you have to
"see the weakness"of the race,contenders will start to appear...


Very nice.

That's that thing that most attracted me to The MatchUp in the first place ,
listening to Mr. Bradshaw toss horse's as he goes thru the form faster than
42nd Degree Aikido Master.

To me, the most attractive part of the MatchUp is in its Art of Elimination
and solid reason to eliminate.

Thanks Don.

[VoodooFan]

:( Just lost a practice race.

Talking about "WEAKNESS" , and a stupid mistake.

Horse attributes/positive :
1) won 4 in a row
2) Pure Early
3) MUST go wire to wire (must be 1st at EVERY break call)
4) Needs at least a 1 length lead at 1st call (23 ,23.1)

Did'nt consider negatives :

1) Any sprinter or horse anywhere that can possibly break faster, no
matter what his shape.
2) NOT a proven fighter. In fact, has NEVER fought.

VoodooFan

[MIKE1121]

I don't have a 10,000 race data base but from looking at a LOT of races concerning positioning when predicting who will be where in the pack of todays race I will look at how many times they have this position in their last 10 races. Horses who have had the lead 6 times will with little exception in todays race will lead a horse who has only had the lead 3 times. The same goes for mid and back of the pack. A horse who has been in last position in 6 out of his last 10 races will be last in todays race if the other horses have each been last less than 6 times.

Note. Comparing sprint vrs dirt. You have to move up far back sprinters when comparing route pacelines. example sprint 6th position may move up to a route 2 or 3 position.



Mike.

[don p]

what race was that voodoo? mike i know what your saying ..your describing the horses running stlye but where does he like to be on the pace of today's race?

[VoodooFan]

.
You have to move up far back sprinters when comparing route pacelines. example sprint 6th position may move up to a route 2 or 3 position.
Mike.

One would think this is the case, and it is most of the time. You can't win all races.

For instance, the GATE position at 1 mile to the 1st call :Sprinter vs Router.

You would think the sprinter would at least BREAK fast and ahead of the router most times, and usually can, but most times is BEHIND the router at the 1st call , and sometimes even the break.

I wonder if study on horses BREAK habits is in order.

From what I understand so far, the BREAK is only to see if the Early horse can pass horses to be 1st at the 1st call AND win the race.

I think thats what the term "WIRE TO WIRE " means.

From what I understand also, if a Route horse is 2nd at the Break call (23),
he ceases to be Early, unless he shows he can be competitive and / or win from that postion.

A sprinter breaks from a longer chute, while a router with 1mile experience is familiar with breaking on a turn.

I see a good percentage of routers :

1) Out breaking sprinters , before sprinter takes a brief lead

2) Sprinters out breaking router , before router takes lead

You would think in both scenarios, the route horse would be hurt, but sometimes, the sprinter does not effect the router, and the router goes on to win the race, or an Other Than Early horse wins ,that you left out because his 1st fraction did'nt meet projection, but you projected the WRONG 1st call projection of what the sprinter would force the router to run.

If a horse BREAKS position 2nd before 1st call at 21.2 and the best break is
4th at a 22 before hitting the 1st call, isn't there some influence?

Isn't the BREAK half the distance to the 1st call ? Isn't that significant?

Can be very frustrating.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

what race was that voodoo? mike i know what your saying ..your describing the horses running stlye but where does he like to be on the pace of today's race?

Sure wish I could remember that race, sorry.

VoodooFan

[don p]

TO VOODOO......i really don'tuse where a horse breaks until i need it...to establish the pace of the race i only look for the one's at the two furlong call..as for routers taking the lead on sprinters the way to start seeing that before the race is to qualify the speed and see if they have ever given up the lead in a sprint or route...some of these horses are "pretend" lead horses and routers can take the lead if they want it....

[MIKE1121]

I will do a LIVE race tommorow after I download my race file, It will show what I am talking about.


Mike.

[VoodooFan]

TO VOODOO......i really don'tuse where a horse breaks until i need it...to establish the pace of the race i only look for the one's at the two furlong call..as for routers taking the lead on sprinters the way to start seeing that before the race is to qualify the speed and see if they have ever given up the lead in a sprint or route...some of these horses are "pretend" lead horses and routers can take the lead if they want it....

Good stuff to think about, good show, Don P, thanks.

VoodooFan

[MIKE1121]

Sam Houston 2-15 race 2........ I don't know how to load the pps, maybe someone can do this.

I have noticed that looking at how many times a horse has run at a particular position in the pack, it is a fairly reliable indicator of where he will be positioned today i.e. you can predict the position of a horse after 2 furlongs.
This is useful if you wish to elimminate horses who you see may be too far back at the beggining of a race.

I see all field sizes as if they had 10 entrys it makes it easyier.. so if a horse exits a 5 horse field and he is in 3rd his position is equivalent to being 6th in a 10 horse field ( pretty much in the middle of a field ). 1rst is always 1rst,no matter the field size.

The breakdown of todays horses i.e the positions they hold the most often.I group them 1-2, 3-4 , 5-6, 7-8, 9-10.

1. 9 races is 1rst or 2nd , 1 race 3-4

2. 6 races is 9-10th he is mostly last or 2nd to last

3. 3 races 5-6, 3 races 9-10th

4. 7 races 1-2 , 1race 3-4th

5. even thru ought

6. 3 races 3-4th position, 2races 5-6th position

7. 4 races 1-2, 4 races 3-4th positions

8. 4 races 7-8th positions

9. 4 races 5-6th position, 2 races 7-8th position

10. 4 races 9-10th position, 3 races 7-8th position

11. 8 races 1-2 position 1 race 3-4

12. 6 races 3-4 th position.


1rst call prediction the # 1 horse will be the leader , the # 2 horse will be last after 2 furlongs. the predicted position of all the horses top to bottom, with the bottom being last after 2 furlongs.

1
11
4
7
12
6
5
9
8
3
10
2

See what happens when the charts are done. usually using this position only, i will get the top half and the last 3 bottom feeders right. This is still a work in progress, but it is another way of looking at predicting position. If a horse has a troubled trip at the gate this will effect his position, no one can predict trouble.


Mike

[RichieP]

Mike
Here is a link to a free screen capture program: http://wisdom-soft.com/products/screenhunter_free.htm

That will enable you to post pp's,screen shots etc in the future. If you need any help setting it up just holler.


Here are the pp's for your race mentioned above. The time shown are in 10ths. The lower tab shows tandems.

Horses 1-4

[RichieP]

horses 5-8

[RichieP]

to complete the field horses 9-12

[VoodooFan]

Richies 8 month update - 5th key spot play : Lone Early -1st Example race :

Divide--Aqu--8.5d--24.1--48.2--112.9--145.5 1[1.5]-1[2.5]-1[hd]-3[2.5]

Dodge--Aqu--6.0d--23 -46.3 --58.9 --111.9 3[2.1]-3[1.6]-2[hd]-1[hd]

Nine - Aqu--8.5d--24.1--48.4 --114.2--146.6 4[4.6]-1[.5]--1[hd]-1[1]

I would suppose "proven fighter" or " proven challenger" does NOT apply to
Dodge. A Presser that's "BEHIND" the Boss and behind the Early Presser.

Although penalizing him with even 4/5ths at the 1st fraction would
"mathematically" have him at least tied, or challenging for the lead.
Coupled with that 46.3 as compared to a 48.2 EASY lead.

GATE start positions for various distances + Running Style +
Past Performance Positions = "Actual " Position ?? (Reality)?

VoodooFan

[MIKE1121]

Now that the results are in. Looking at just frequency of a horses position after running 2 furlongs and its predictability of todays position.
I predicted that the #1 horse would lead and the #2 would be last at first call, with the rest in the following positions to the Right I will post the actual order at the 2 furlong mark, with the leader on top and the horse in last at the bottom.

1. 1................1
2. 11................11
3. 4..................7
4. 7..................8
5. 12................4
6. 6.................. 5
7. 5.................. 2
8. 9..................6
9. 8................. 3
10. 3................ 10
11 10............... 9
12 2................. 12


The complete misses where the 12, I had the 12 at position 5 , he was last at the first call. The #8 horse also surprised me he was 4th I thought he would be 9th. The # 2 was my biggest surprise I thought he would be 12th he was 7th.

The rest fell at or close to their frequency of position. 12 horse fields are a little tougher to get, 7 or 8 horse fields many times will fall at or within a position.

mike.

[don p]

good work mike.

[VoodooFan]

Looking at just frequency of a horses position after running 2 furlongs and its predictability of todays position.


Very interesting MatchUp research , Mike.

More results like these would solidify and give one confidence in ones
ability to put horses in their position , MATCHUP style.

Nice.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

With positions, I'm still working to learn "Stacking/Pictures" coupled with
PowerLines and PowerMoves.

1) Fastest Pace last race (check for spotplay )

2) Running Styles and horses with multiple running style.

2a): Multiple running style horses, stack both their two styles

2b): Stack a horse against HIMSELF, to get a picture of what he can
do and from where.

3) Stack ONLY Early /Early P to see if dominant , or will race run OTE.

4) Stack OTE if race is going to run that way.

5) PowerLines and PowerMoves are evaluated for final contenders.

Still trying to master using multiple lines on a horse to get HIS picture.

VoodooFan