Route race made up of mostly sprinters

[RichieP]

Let me put up the pp's for the field first. This ran late yesterday afternoon at Sunland Park in New Mexico.

Then I will show you a little "Hat helper" that brings the winner into clear focus as a lone early.

[RichieP]

pp's for remainder of field

[RichieP]

ok first pass though the field half the horses are sprinters
#1 - all sprints
#4 - only 1 try at route. all the rest sprints
#5 - only 3 races upon shipping here from better tracks are all sprints
#6 - all sprints

I also see that the couple of routers in the race also show sprints. Two ways to go at this race.

1) Make 2 matchups. Find the best sprinter. Find the best router. Match them up.

2) Treat the race as a sprint and matchup sprint lines. This can be done when the routers also have sprint lines that make them fast.Advantage of this is there is only ONE matchup that needs to be done. In THIS race the conditions exist to use this process I believe.

For ME it is always easier to work a race comparing apples to apples as the saying goes.

This what Hat taught me to do and now I pass it on to you for consideration.

[RichieP]

first step is I want to see if I can project a pace off a lead horse. Easy as pie here as the #1 from last race is early and FAST

[RichieP]

Now you can check the pp's listed earlier as a reference. Let's go through the field looking at the sprint lines of each horse.

#1 fast and last line - Early
#2 slow and OUT
#3 fast and line 2 - other than early
#4 last 3 races can't compete against slower paces and OUT
#5 line 2 against todays pace -can't compete and OUT
#6 fast and line 5 - other than early
#7 slow and OUT
#8 marginal at best. let's use last line and line 7.

Here now is a screen shot showing the above scenario and lines. I've now added the #1's 6f time on the projected pace tab just to show how fast this sucker potentially is.

couple of things now stand out when looking at the mix:
1) #1 is lone early and has the lead at the FASTEST 6f mark of all the lines shown

2) There is not even a horse running in the 2nd position at either the 1st or 2nd calls to challenge the #1.

Now the only question that needs answering is: Can the #1 get his "comfort zone" lead early on of 2 lengths?

Comparing sprints to sprints it seems most likely he will. Would you agree?

This is EXACTLY what Jim taught me to do and now it is passed on to YOU.

[RichieP]

The result chart shows the ass whooping up close and personal.

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

With respect to point 2) of the above, in past race examples either you or Hat have commented on or used a projection feature that adjusts either position or lengths back based on running against faster times. Where I would stray from your analysis is in this area. Glitterboy runs to second call against a .6 sec or 3 length faster time; he appears (in this contender mix) to be the closest pursuer and the best presser of the contenders.

Questions: Can Glitterboy's faster pace make him disturb Ego's 2nd call comfort level (if you make pace adjustments)? Do you take Glitterboy's 6f time as the best he can do, even with a slower pace to run at? If you do not consider making pace/position adjustments for Glitterboy, why not?

Appreciate the example,


Bill

[RichieP]

Bill
here was my thought process.

The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction.

The #3's sprint line - is 3rd at the break and goes back a position to 4th at first fraction. I think after seeing this that the race will now be run on the #1's terms and pace. BUT now that race of the #3 was 2 ticks faster at 1st call. Let's look a little deeper at the 3.

In 3 races showing the 3 has pressed or fought with horses for the lead.
1) last line where he fought for the lead at first fraction in a route times in 23.3(5ths). Since I already "know" he ain't getting the lead over the #1 throw that race out.

2)line 4 at 8.5f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at the 2nd call.Fractions are 24-48.1 STOP. Right away this is way too SLOW for what will go down today.

3) line 5 at 8f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at 2nd call. Fractions 24.1 STOP. This whole race is an illusion if you will because that first fraction is insanely slow.

Hope some of this made sense Bill.

Hat laid this on me one day when we worked a race at Aqueduct one morning that was gonna be run later that day. He was heading to the simulcast and I told him I had a winner for him. It was very similar to this layout and I did all this fancy work with pace of race and altering positions etc.

Jim listened quietly and when I was done said "Rich someone has to get after that pacesetter before the 2nd call. If they leave him alone he's gone.Look at your horses pp's and show me where he can challenge". THIS is when he started bringing up the break positions and seeing what the horses do from there to the first call/fraction.

Turned out he was right. My horse never did mount a challenge and lost horribly to the "pacesetter" as Hat put it. The next day he taught me a little about that race type. That is what I have tried to show here
Richie

[Bill Lyster]

Thank you for the in depth analysis. Really understandable.

All the best,

Bill

[PeteC]

Thanks for the lesson, Richie. I've had success looking for Jim's Spot Play where there is one fast sprinter going against slow routers, as based on the 6 furlong time. I end up passing many races like the one you laid out here though, with multiple sprinters. The way you presented this race will help me tackle more of them.

I'm very early in the learning process here and taking it one step at a time. I'm focusing on the Spot Plays I recognize while practicing other races.

Again, thanks for showing this race and "Hat Helper" and appreciate all your help.


*** The fact you wrote this "I'm focusing on the spot plays I RECOGNIZE" shows you are developing PATTERN RECOGNITION skills Pete. Excellent! *** RichieP

[VoodooFan]

The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction.


Thanks for the lesson Rich. Of course, I have some questions.
1) In the above quote, are you looking at what position and how a horse breaks to press or challenge for the lead?

2) What about habitually slow breakers who are Early and Early Pressers?


shows a move to engage and fight for the lead


3)This looks like new ammunition for you and us for spot plays. Do you feel you will be sharper with this added view of races?

4) Are you looking at ANY horse horse who regularly challenge for the lead at the 1st call / 2nd call , whether his position is 4th or 5th at the 1st call...as long as he challenges for the lead at one of those two calls?

5) Is a horse a fighter and /or challenger if he is 3rd or 4th position off by a neck or head, or is he simply fighting other Other-Than-Early horses and is not considered a challenger to the Early horse at the 1st two calls?

Very nice post.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

I also noticed, Rich, when you confirmed THE Early horse that will have the lead, you always look and comment if there are no position 2 or 3 horses.

Does that make your spot play that much stronger when you see no position
2 or 3 horses?

Do you care what lengths the 2nd postion and 3rd position horses have in their past performance?

Looks like with this recent post, you are looking at how or if a position 2 and 3 will challenge the leader for the lead in either or both of the 1st two calls.

Thanks

VoodooFan

** When there are no horses in the 2nd position at the 1st or 2nd calls YES I do feel the early horse becomes that much stronger fwiw** - RichieP

[RichieP]

Thanks for the lesson Rich. Of course, I have some questions.
1) In the above quote, are you looking at what position and how a horse breaks to press or challenge for the lead?

2) What about habitually slow breakers who are Early and Early Pressers?



3)This looks like new ammunition for you and us for spot plays. Do you feel you will be sharper with this added view of races?

4) Are you looking at ANY horse horse who regularly challenge for the lead at the 1st call / 2nd call , whether his position is 4th or 5th at the 1st call...as long as he challenges for the lead at one of those two calls?

5) Is a horse a fighter and /or challenger if he is 3rd or 4th position off by a neck or head, or is he simply fighting other Other-Than-Early horses and is not considered a challenger to the Early horse at the 1st two calls?

Very nice post.

VoodooFan

Voodoo,

1) SOMETIMES the break helps me to "see" who will be the one dictating the pace of todays race. Above race is good example.

2) To be honest I don't really know. Have to look more closely at this

3) This race type kind of helps me because I can match horses up from the same distance structure. I am not very good when I have to mix and match.

4) Any horse from any position when the pp line shows a "head" or "neck" back is engaged in a FIGHT for the lead

5) If he is 3rd-4th back a neck then there is a real tussle on for the lead at that call and YES he is battling for the lead

[RichieP]

Guys I want to bump this up to the top for a reason. There is MONEY here.

*** The following is definitely FOR users of the 5 step approach. Have the PATIENCE to wait for this and your 5 step will take care of the rest.***

Listen REAL simple:

1) Today is a route (turf or dirt) and there are at least 2 matching early 1st fraction/first call/2nd call ROUTE horses PLUS an early running sprinter.THROW all the earlies out for the WIN and take the 1st fraction/1st call times/2nd call times of the router as todays proj pace.

2) LOOK at the pps of the O.T.E.(other than early)runners. Mark any horse/pace lines against today's proj pace where the horse WON or just missed while doing so from the 4th or 5th POSITION at the FIRST CALL.

3) Again with the focus on the O.T.E. grouping mark any horse/paceline against todays proj pace where the horse had the LEAD at the stretch call regardless of finish position.

The horses you get from #2 and #3 above are your horses plain and simple. Wait for #1 to be present in todays race (PATIENCE!) then find horse described in #2 and #3 that are also a price.

Merry Christmas :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uOabPZScQs

[RichieP]

“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” -- Warren Buffett

1) Make a game plan centered around race patterns that YOU have seen work when you match races YOUR way.

2) Avoid like the plague race patterns that YOU struggle with regardless of what you read works for others. I will tell you that MY weak link is early horses (Lone E, Dominant E etc) while other matchers flourish here :)

3) To match for money BET races that are part of #1 and PASS all others.

Mr. Bradshaw's 5 step approach and concepts are here in this forum for YOU to explore,discover,practice and IMPLEMENT to put CASH in its practitioners pockets. With todays economic climate around the world it is BIG to hone skills here to supplement/provide income.

"Mr. Hat" told me his Matchup Concepts are timeless and would serve us well for years to come.

“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” -- Warren Buffett

[mikesal57]

Hi Richie..

I am so thrilled you bumped this up , because matching routes has been a my weakness and I didnt even bother with them...

Let me give you an example ...

Lets say your #1 is met...2 early routers and a fast sprinter.....

projected pace is 24.2....48.3.....115.2....

we have 2 OTE's...with the same positions and lengths behind ....5...4...2...1


Horse A fractions....24.2...48.3... 115.2

Horse B fractions....24.1...48.1....115.0

I would bet the B horse because he ran vs a better pace....

But now I think I was wrong because he didnt get those fast fractions to run at..

Correct???

mike

[RichieP]

Hi Richie..

I am so thrilled you bumped this up , because matching routes has been a my weakness and I didnt even bother with them...
mike

Watch this Mike.

Here is a race from last night at Penn. It was a route.

Now here are the 3 early runners I talked about in previous post above. TWO early ROUTE runners and ONE early running SPRINTER.

Matter of fact when you see the off time of the Penn race here and then the time of my post above you will see that the race I am gonna show you ran AFTER I had posted about the power of this.

Like Mr. Hat was watching all this go down a race immediately comes up exactly like I was telling you to look for and it turns out to be a pretty good payday man! (YES I have the tickets to share).

This would happen all the time when he would teach me something new. He would show it to me early in the morning then the same day I would play and see it and hit. I would call him up going crazy like "Jim I just hit a race and it was exactly like you showed me this afternoon!". This happened SO many times that after a while he would laugh when he heard my voice at the other end.

Jim called it "Karma" or "the way it is supposed to be Rich". I called it "scary" or "that funny stuff again Hat". He just laughed this devilish little laugh he did sometimes :eek:

Here are the pp's of the early running horses. As you see proj pace is piece of cake taken right from the #12 last race at this track and dist structure :)

Step 1:
RECOGNIZE this pattern going forward.
A) We THROW OUT this whole group immediately from any win consideration

B) Grab the 1st fraction/1st call/ 2nd call (here I just used 1fr/1c as you see.Doesnt matter in this race fwiw) from the early ROUTE horses.

Get this VITAL step down pat. Keep LOOKING at these 3 guys and their early fractional times. The last screenshot shows them together for easy evaluation

THIS is the setup your Mind's Eye needs to take pictures of.

[RichieP]

Here are the full pps along with the tandem tab showing on mid panel.

I have highlighted 1f/1c proj pace

These are pigs. Lets look for any races with signs of life against proj pace or faster.

[RichieP]

cont

[mikesal57]

Hi Rich..

Yes , I laughed at this too....with the colors of RDSS there were only 2 horses that had a red finish with green 1 & 2 calls , then when u look at the times of those calls ...easy choice

Oh how I wish I had time to go thru the PP's...:(

mike

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart and my bet at Twin Spires. I bet well before race ran and felt confident that 1 of the 2 would win so I bet em both. Things turned out well as watching the replay the 10 barrel rolled them in the stretch.

Matching is good when the horses run 1st-3rd.

Check the pps/ proj pace and look around a bit.

There is a premeditated reason :eek: THIS race is being shown beside the fact it happened like an hour after I had made initial "bump thread up" post:

How many "E" are there?

What position at FIRST CALL should we start looking AROUND for to get our FAST O.T.E. runner?

Use the ENTIRE pps shown for the winning #10. Look at ALL races lit up by the proj pace. ALL races.

Make YOUR picture of the total performance of the horse against TODAYS MATCHUP. Use what is written in paragraph above to do it.

You will be thinking creatively.

You will be thinking like the man with the big Stetson thought.

[RichieP]

...



:)