e/l is a great tool

[Tim Y]

Just going over the races at Aqu and the bias was there, if
anything it was favoring later runners. Who would have guessed it in that slop?

The GREAT GREAT thing about the advanced programs if your being able to keep a running view of the winning e/l's and can pick up this change early enough in a program to make it play to your advantage.


Great tool.

[Condor]

Tim could you please exsplain more how to use the e/l tool.Thanks

[Tim Y]

I never believed in track bias having grown up in the West where weather doesn't effect the outcome that much. I started to follow the e/l (at Eastern tracks AQU, Woodbine, Fort Erie etc.) and model if for each track and distance, I began record the e/l numbers during each race day as to what was winning. This gave me a "running total" of how the day was running: if it was really biased one way or the other (faster higher e/l's or slower lower e/l's) I was right on top of it long before the crowd picked it up.

When day's run one way or the other (a great example is to follow the e/l's on the Friday Kentucky Oaks card as a predictor of the following day in the Derby), it gives you a big leg up on the competition. I recall one year when Giacomo won, NONE of the speed horses did well on the Friday before. When Funny Cide won, on the other hand, all of the speed did well both days.

Now having said that, one has to see a definite trend one way or the other before you can call it a real bias. These numbers really help.

Another way: When everyone was hailing Bellamy Road coming out of a huge effort in the Wood, I knew that the e/l was so biased early the day of that race, that this colt could not go into Louisville with that energy distribution and get the trip the first Saturday in May. Proved correct.

Set up standards for each course then see how biased or not the course is on any given card.

[froggy]

Tim,

Is this not just another way to express Med Energy.
In most distances at Aqu, 6f through 8.3f med has been in the mid 67s.
However 9f on the 2nd was won at 68.22

Froggy

[Tim Y]

True but the differences are more obvious to me expressed positively and negatively.