Hat on Polytrack races

[RichieP]

I have out this there in various threads but wanted to have it in a place accessible to folks. Plus following Jim's guidelines I just hit a tremendous horse in the Keeneland contest! ;)

OK bout 8 months ago Jim told me the following and suggested I pay CLOSE attention to this ok? I am passing it along for you to consider

" When working races on the Poly surface Rich match lines from
a) Polytracks
b) Turf

Place LITTLE weight on DIRT races when these other races are present in the horse's pp's." - Jim Bradshaw

I have been following this for months and it is rock solid man. Today at Keeneland they had a ton of rain since yesterday and took the 2 races that were scheduled for the turf off it. Ran the races on the main track (Poly)

Ok in the 9th race following Hat's instructions I used turf lines at todays 9f distance on the poly and came up with the #2 horse Boss Laffite "Other than early"

I took a win bet at 9/1 and also singled him in the online Keeneland contest.

Called Jim to tell him and see said "Thats what I taught you to do Rich. Now get after them boy!"

Screen shot of my selection at the Keeneland contest site. $21.20 winner works all day long matchers :)

ok

[Vinnie]

Richie:

How are you doing? :) I love reading your explanations on how you methodically go about making selections in various races with conditions such as you mentioned in your post. Thank you for the keen observations and explanations. Very Nice Crush on that race too!!!

Have a Terrific Weekend.

Warm Regards,

Mike (Vinnie)

[RichieP]

Hey Mike
I'm good amigo. This poly stuff is tough but hopefully we can get a little gauge on it.

Some folks have it figured out quite nicely judging by the Keeneland online contest. Yesterday I had another beautiful overlay winner paying 18.80 from the 4 contest races. Day 1 I had only the 22 buck winner I posted about above.

So in 2 days I have an R.O.I. of well over 100% and I am NOT in the top 125 guys!! Water is filled with sharks buddy! Lol

Hey stay cool and Jim says to thank you for that beautiful thing you did for him at the shrine.

Screen shot of my other win yesterday in the contest at Keeneland

[RichieP]

Once again using turf lines on the poly at Keeneland pays off at nice price.

Lost the 7th race.

Won the 8th race stakes with Ventura using a 6.5f turf line from Santa Anita. There really is nobody else to even consider as a challenge IF you accept that line as valid."Other than early" 6/1 ml pays 10 bucks to win.

The 9th race (Turf) is about to run.

These were my picks on the 3 contest races today. My ROI win betting is over 100% and I am NOWHERE to be found in top standings.

[tfm]

This horse was about as close to a lock as you can get. And she paid 4:1.

Look at the chart of her last race.

She's sitting 2nd last to a loose leader in relatively leisurely splits. Then explodes the 3rd quarter, which is significantly faster (close to a second) than the previous two. So, she gets no pace to work with, and has a loose horse in slow fractions.

But, what's even more impressive is that she does it handily. Not even asked.

Yet another reason why the game is CRUSHABLE if you're patient.

[shrink1]

Richie,
I have a question?? I also did the Keenland card today and used the same pace line for Ventura. On my BLBL he is last but is 1st in DCL. On my Primary he is also last but is 1st in LPR. Is that what I should have looked at?? I played the double and had the winner in the 9th. Let me know where i went wrong not using him.
Ira

** Ira - You did NOTHING wrong. IF you are thinking a race winner should go "other than early" than consider checking "L/Ep" and "Lpr" reads. Btw NICE hit on the 9th man. Hope you had paper on that BOMB!!** Richie P

[RichieP]

This horse was about as close to a lock as you can get. And she paid 4:1.

Look at the chart of her last race.

She's sitting 2nd last to a loose leader in relatively leisurely splits. Then explodes the 3rd quarter, which is significantly faster (close to a second) than the previous two. So, she gets no pace to work with, and has a loose horse in slow fractions.

But, what's even more impressive is that she does it handily. Not even asked.

Yet another reason why the game is CRUSHABLE if you're patient.

Hey John
Nice hit paisan. I have shown Jim your charts and he loves them. Remember the positional ones you had done for me? He LOVED them man!

[tfm]

Hey John
Nice hit paisan. I have shown Jim your charts and he loves them. Remember the positional ones you had done for me? He LOVED them man!

Thanks for the kind words.

[Nets]

Thanks for the kind words.

Good to see you posting here TFM.

Gary

[tfm]

I


Ok in the 9th race following Hat's instructions I used turf lines at todays 9f distance on the poly and came up with the #2 horse Boss Laffite "Other than early"

I took a win bet at 9/1 and also singled him in the online Keeneland contest.


If you check this guy's running line in that race (on the turf) it reads:

6-8 1/2, 6-11, 6-13, 6-10, 6-1

whoa, nice close there

there's another horse running tomorrow, out of the same race, this time on the turf, He's the Commander; and his running line is almost as impressive, as well:

5-8 1/2, 5-11, 5-11, 3-4 1/2, 5-2 1/2


then we look at the chart is see that the race collapsed badly (all but one horse gained the last 3 splits) and these really weren't impressive efforts at all