Matcher's Feedback - What do YOU need help with

[RichieP]

Please put your:
1) questions
2) comments
3) Areas you need help/feedback on

HERE in this thread. Specific threads will then be started to assist you if needed.

[punch18]

hi rich good work


question............... in the minds eye thread we were matching via the 1st fraction then matching all the examples were early. If we think it would run ote is it done the same way with the earlies taken out.


question 2.......................
I read the 5 steps and have been practicing with them. example
i find the pace 22-45-58
when matching i look for a horse who won at that pace or better and hes my choice.<probably doing wrong>
comment .................
spot plays
thanks in advance
punch

[PeteC]

Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.

I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse".

On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse.

Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early.

Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated...

[RichieP]

hi rich good work


question............... in the minds eye thread we were matching via the 1st fraction then matching all the examples were early. If we think it would run ote is it done the same way with the earlies taken out.


question 2.......................
I read the 5 steps and have been practicing with them. example
i find the pace 22-45-58
when matching i look for a horse who won at that pace or better and hes my choice.<probably doing wrong>
comment .................
spot plays
thanks in advance
punch

Hi Punch:
1) Excellent question. I will find a race that moves to the next step which is other than early. I'm thinking of Jim when he was explaining to me the steps needed to teach his concepts that give matchers the BEST chance to UNDERSTAND and implement his concepts.

This ongoing forum and me explaining to folks here exactly how he taught ME is what he wanted after he passed. I'll find a good one or 2 Punch and do right by everyone.

2) When you can give me an example race that you have WON please. If it's within the last couple of days the better cause I can then get the pp's.Post them up and then we can look and follow along step by step what you are doing ok? I think the "pictures" of the past performances will help greatly as far as us "seeing" what you are doing.

[RichieP]

Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.

I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse".

On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse.

Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early.

Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated...

Ok Pete:

1) We MUST consider the horses entire past performances when we have determined he is "still a horse". Using all the lines is Jim's way of AVOIDING having to adjust a horse with variants/track to track and the like.

Go back and check the Sunland race please in the "Mind's Eye" thread. On that winning 7 horse we MUST MUST MUST be able to go down to that Zia line deep in the pp's.

Why did I use the word must 3 times? That race was the last race Jim worked with me when he was in the hospital ok? HE wanted THAT race and horse put up here and said "The fellas MUST be able to get that horse Rich off that Zia line.That's the Matchup"

2) As to your 2nd part re the Holly race. Pete I am not blowing smoke when I tell you EXCELLENT "Mind's Eye" work there. You looked at a horse and saw him multi-dimensionally after taking in his looks on several lines in the past performances. Keep working races in a quiet environment man.

YOUR "Mind's Eye" is developing beautifully. "Pictures" of a horse's ability are starting to form in your mind. Keep listening Pete. Keep listening.
Your INTUITION is talking to you.

1) Listen
2) ACT on the FIRST thing it tells you about a horse/race. Practice acting QUICKLY

[Bill Lyster]

I think we have a lot of tools to help us gage the ability of early horses already. I am sure there are more. But right now for me the hardest judgment call is the deep closer with a good power move versus not-so-deep closers that ran just a little slower in their power moves. Just a for instance, but I'm not sure what should carry more weight - the move from 11th to 7th to 3rd or whether the number of lengths gained between each call - or some combination of the two. I kinda understand the fact that passing horses means the horse had extra energy, but within the POR/POH data is there some way to confirm whether or not the move really is what it appears to be?

Another question might be to help define or quantify the OTE horse's equivalent of "fighting", where an early horse leading by a head or neck is seen as being pressured and either reacts gamely or not.

Thanks Richie,

[mufasa]

Rich, as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.

Robert

[mufasa]

Rich, as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.

Robert

You see it is true that even your best bets lose. I think I read the last race for #4 correctly (if not let me know where I went wrong) but that does not gurantee a winning ticket. Nothing does.

Robert

[Intrepid]

as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.

Robert

I also see the #4 as a contender, but when I look at the #3 horse MacKinaw and convert his last race (at a mile) to a sprint I see he can run as fast or faster early on and "out position" the #4 horse. Also looking at the 7th line back on the #3 shows me he has run well against a similar pace before and made a very competitive move against it.

That's just my perspective and of course hind sight is always 20-20.

[jwolpert]

Check the 3 in that Race

[mufasa]

Yes you are right about the #3 horse. It was as they say a legitimate favorite and I was foolishly as to this race trying to beat it at lousy odds of less then 5/2. The #3 was cutting back from a mile in which it ran well against a pace estimated to be like today’s race (trainer move) and in its second race back at a sprint, against today’s type of estimated pace, it showed it could handle the half mile time.

In this case there was no reason to adjust and I never do when practicing the Match Up but I was blinded by what I thought I understood. Even though the #4 came out of a faster half mile time then the rest of the field in its last race, having run well to the half in an unadjusted time, it never showed in its past performances that it could run good at 46+ before. Lesson learned here so for that I am grateful.

Rich:

Perhaps the example of #4 is not a good one as to JB’s quote to you “Pay attention to horses coming out of the fastest pace in last race. Look at them closely.” Or worse maybe I am missing something. When considering the last race in this regard is it important to verify that the horse can handle the pace in its past performances before allowing full credit?

Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

Rich:

Perhaps the example of #4 is not a good one as to JB’s quote to you “Pay attention to horses coming out of the fastest pace in last race. Look at them closely.” Or worse maybe I am missing something. When considering the last race in this regard is it important to verify that the horse can handle the pace in its past performances before allowing full credit?

Thanks,
Robert

Hi Robert

First off I wouldn't say you are missing anything. The horse did come out of FPLR and held position from 1c-2c.

IF you have seen this pattern win before with YOUR "Mind's Eye" then this was a "play" that just happened to lose. Period.
=========================================================

Now here is something for everyone to take in please. It came from Jim after about 6 months of learning from him. There is a REASON it is being posted here and now ok?

YOUR "Mind's Eye"/Intuition will TALK to you. OK we know that but watch this now.

There are going to be times when you have worked a race and have "picked" your horse that is going to win. You are all keyed up and psyched BUT when you go to write him down or "mark" him or bet him you get a weird SUDDEN feeling that comes over you and leaves you with the thought "somethings not right here."

It comes at the last possible moment. I am suggesting that you keep track of what happens to THESE horses when the race runs.I will stop here on purpose

WRITE down on paper and track the results of these runners.

[billylump]

Rich, You are right on about that feeling about your horse not being
as good as you had previosly thought. When that feeling hits, it is best to
pass the race. Everytime it happens to me the horse in question will lose.

Billylump

[punch18]

Hi guys,
Really trying my best to learn this art without having the book. Any way heres my process help me !!!!! i will put a * next to the area im not sure of

1. make running style call
2. post pro pace ( 22.2 45.4 58.3)
3. How race will run ***
( if i determine it will run other than early do I throw out the earlies right there and not even match them?)
4. match em
1st look for 22.2 or less then see if 45.4 or less is there, i then look at that horse positions if he matches all pro pace fractions.
5 Last horse standing is my pick.
** last 2 standing example
a 22.2 45.4 4 4 3 2
b 22.1 45.4 1 1 1 2
I determin race will be ote because of 3 or more earlies do i give the nod to the a horse?**
Sorry for the rambling guys i just enjoy the races have tons of paitence and want to be the best matcher I can
Thanks in advance
punch

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

reviewing past lessons is always a good refresher. How about showing us the links to the various spot plays that you have already identified? Things like "3 matching earlies", The Hats marathon spot play, when the horse that figures to get the lead has never had the lead before, etc.

I think we have a tendency to forget how much ground you and The Hat have already covered.

Thanks,

Thanks,

[admin]

Hello Rich

Today at Monmouth I have these two early runners
The eight horses has run two routes The Ten is a regular sprinter
My question is I would kind of think the 10 will get a better break
than the 8 who has been in two routes When I set the pace
I see this developing and maybe make the early pace a little faster ?

Thank you Rich
Bill

[admin]

Hi Rich

I worked the race I made it into a video
I have no access to a Microphone so I had to type
my comments as I thought of them

My bets are the 4 and 6
http://www.paceandcap.com/videos/ARRace4.wmv

Thanks
Bill

[admin]

Hi Rich

well the 4 got the lead the 8 presssed all the way
then the 9 came up late and won at 15/1

well it was fun watching the race when the 4 got ahead of the 8 and 10
more work is ahead but its a start

Thanks

[RichieP]

Richie:

reviewing past lessons is always a good refresher. How about showing us the links to the various spot plays that you have already identified? Things like "3 matching earlies", The Hats marathon spot play, when the horse that figures to get the lead has never had the lead before, etc.

I think we have a tendency to forget how much ground you and The Hat have already covered.

Thanks,

Thanks,

Hi Bill
Here are a few links:

1) The Hat on Energy Distribution (complete with Hat word document and writeup)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1603

2) The Hat - Practice race #4 (using tandems to hep you with Hat commentary)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1685

3) The Hat - Next Practice race ( Hat feedback on projecting pace and horse by horse matching)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1671

4) O.T.E. race from the Hat (Hat explaining the simple concept of early/other than early with a great example race)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2125

5) Jim Bradshaw's Matchup 8 Month Update ( My 8 month report on things learned from Jim. Includes spot plays/Intuition recognition/ Early/O.T.E)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1951

6) The Hat's Power Lines (What are they/How to find them/How to evaluate if they are valid today. Hat gives a perfect description of what they are in post #46)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2619

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Richie, that is just a great resource for all of us

BL

[Bill Lyster]

Another thing to add to the list:

One of The Hat's tenets was to choose the horse that ran against the fastest pace in the absence of a true pace setter. In this last contest one of the great payi.ng wins was a turf race from Pimlico. My matchup inputs set up the field against a horse that had run, what turned out for Pimlico, was too fast a pace line. This is not the first time that my Matchup setup has failed in a turf race. Are there any special Matchup pace circumstances for turf races that generally run late?

I have traditionally done well using the best of last three at comparable surface and distance and am prepared to go back to that approach or at least handicap the race in two ways to re-establish that type of profitability. Do you find that the Matchup works uniformly as well in turf races as on all other surfaces?

Thanks,

Bill