Match Up This Race

[Turbulator]

I ran across this old race, and I thought it was pretty interesting. I had never seen it before, and I handicapped it for the first time myself. I'm curious how you matchers (and matchers to be) would analyze this race using what you have learned so far. (Don't worry about getting it wrong; I did--kinda ;))

I'll put up the result chart in two or three days after enough people have had a chance to respond.

(Richie: I'd really like to see your analysis as well, but could you please wait until others have had a chance to give their opinion before you give yours so as not to unduly influence anyone? Thanks. :) )

[Charlie D]

Hi Turbulator


I'd pass - not enough info on the #5

[mufasa]

I believe that the race will run OTE-EPresser. The #2 horse B’s Wild Rush is my choice to win the race off of its MSW win back on 5/19/07. It won against a faster ¼ and half time then anyone else has been able to run in their pp’s.

In its last race of July 15, 07 it ran against an even faster ¼ mile of 21.4 at a very good 2nd within ½ lengths and while falling back at the half came on again to gain two positions while beating half the field. This horse is fast and can come again as his last race and win show. In his win he shows he is a fighter that can win even after falling back, a big plus. Finally I really like its works coming in to today’s race, another big plus, so he would be my pick. Win or lose I would always pick a horse like this.

Robert

[azbacks]

#2 is quick from the gate and has by far the quickest 1c. Jumps off the page.

[jwolpert]

Bet the little guy on the 2 :) :) :)

[admin]

Running styles

1 Sus
2 Early 22.0
3.E/P
4 Press
5 SUS
6 s/p
7 E/p
8 Early 24.1

The race will be won other than early

The two is going to get the lead on the 8
the 8 is out the 2 is from a poly track AP (i think)
Horse 7's line 2 seems to be the horse to sit just behind the earlys

My projected pace will be
22.0 47.0
The 7 seems like a good match
and the 6 in its last race made a nice power nove
but against a 24.1 48,3

The 5 is a question

I would take a chance with the 6 and 7

[grahors]

Here is my read on this race.....
#1 EP (real close to an E) 24.2 24.3
#2 EP 22.1
#3 EP 24.2
#4 EP 23.4 mud, 24.1
#5 S 23.2
#6 EP 24.1 23.3
#7 EP 23.1 23.2
#8 E 24 way to slow and can't get the lead...OUT

should be run OTE.
#2 is dominant EP of the group...race could go in 22.1
1,3,4,6,7 could burn each other.
#5 young and improving..should sit bac and conserve energy for the stretch run........UNKNOWN FACTOR.
Hmmmm....2 or 5
Would probably play both, but if I had to choose, #5 is the choice for the win.
2,5/2,5,7,6 ex bx 2,5/2,5,7,6/2,5,7,6 tri

[Bill Lyster]

There are some questions here:

1 - the 2 has never run on dirt. She is probably the quickest E of the group, but with plenty of company. In the one turn mile at AP she faded after 6f in 113.3. In her win she was 1st fighting, lost ground and position to 3rd and then 4th - then rallied to win - it looks to be by the default of others gasping harder than her. In her last race after pushing the pace, faded to 7th and then rallied to pass two horses. This horse doesn't like the lead IMO - so she is not the fastest here!
2 - the 5 in its debut was off slow, so we really don't know much about her preferred position. But in this field that should not matter (its a benefit) as everybody else is early or can only win from 2nd or 3rd position.

If the 2 is best E all the E/P's get lunched here. In any event the E's and EP's dual themselves into submission. The only horse in this field that has passed anyone is the 5.

Stop the presses - bet the five!

[dogkatcher]

1 S
2 E all poly??
3 P
4 P
5 S
6 sp
7 EP
8 E

OTE

matched against the #1 last (fastest) 22.3 46 113.2

only 1 and 7 can compete against that pace
now I'm stuck, but will take the 1 over the 7
7 has beaten main contenders in tandems but running
style leans towards early and possible trouble.

if #2 runs to his poly lines no contest we lose

[RAMON201]

1-e/p
2-e-22.1
3-p
4-p
5-s
6-p
7-e/p-22.3
8-e

With all the early horses I think the race will be won OTE and I like the 5 to be there at the end for the win.

[mikesal57]

This is a good example with the problem I have with my New York home tracks...

everyone is on the #2 as big time speed , but this was from another track..

at Belmont we get shippers all around the country and their 1st call is always faster than the horses coming from Aqu 's main and inner track...

what to do?

mike

[punch18]

hi
1 p
2 e 22.1
3 p
4 p
5 s
6 p
7 e 23.2
8 e 24

could be dominate early with the 2 but i will go ote because of the recent quit in the 2.
#1 shot a 21.4 p to finish third but i like the 22.1 47.2 line on him if it goes other i like #1
punch

[mufasa]

I also play NY tracks especially while Belmont is running and my take on this is that you have to consider #2 as a contender at least or any horse coming from a different track (also dirt vs. poly). After establishing the win contenders on the basis of MU concepts then you have to make a decision either via a program or track comparison chart as to any horses coming from different tracks/surfaces.

Robert

[shipper]

I see the 8, 2 and 7 on the front end. None should last for the win. The 2 will find the CT dirt tougher than the Poly. My projected pace for the race is 24-48:3-115:1-122:2. The 7 is a declining horse, otherwise would win this. The 3 and 4 are tosses due to pace difficulty and cheapness. The 5 is a curiosity, but should find it hard jumping from state-bred maiden to allowance company, and should need a faster pace to run at. Also loses Dunkleberger to the 2 in this race... Of those left, the 1 has run with some better company and against a fast pace last race, which might have put him on edge. Possibility... The 6 fits surprisingly well with this group, beat the 8 last out, and has the best dirt pace fractions along with the 7. Give me the 6 and 1 to win, coming from off the pace, with a 6-7-1 exacta box... Tough race, Turbo!:cool: Marty...

[Turbulator]

Richie, do you care to comment on this race? Either way, I'll put up the results tomorrow.

Thanks

[RichieP]

What I "know" is that the WIN will come from O.T.E.

What I 'know" is that the 2,7 and 8 can NOT win as they are early. the 2 looks fastest at first blush BUT the 7 and 8 both have shown 4.5f flash speed and that dooms the 2 as well as the 7 and 8 chances of winning. I bet Ct every night and have seen this picture before.

What I do NOT "know" is who is going to WIN and I do NOT value bet or bet 2 horses.

That's all I got man.

[Turbulator]

Can the 2 go wire to wire? To me that was the main question that had to be answered. I don't know. How do you evaluate those AP races? If those AP races don't apply, then I'd project the pace off of the 8 horse. The 7 should go out with the 8, and the 2 should get sucked along (maybe), so the race sets up OTE.

Who can lay third (or possibly fourth), run to the pace, and pass horses. The 6. The 6 was 3rd at the first call, lost ground to the half, and then made a great power move to win the race. Not only that he fought tooth and nail from the stretch call to the finish.

So either the two wires the race easy or the six comes from off the pace. Which is it? I didn't know. I thought the two might be the speed of the speed, but I also loved the power move of the six.

Since I'm not playing two horses anymore I had to either pass or go with one...I try to pick the winner of every race I handicap--for practice if nothing else. I picked the 2.

However, had I been at the track or watching this race live I don't think there is any way I could of not bet the six. Why? Check out the results. I still think it might be a typo. I got the results from the racing channel, so if anybody can find a result chart for this race I'd love to see it.

Unbelieveable.

Two people got it right--Admin and Shipper. Congrats, you'd have been well rewarded.

[mufasa]

I think my biggest mistake with this race as to selecting the #2 horse was that I was not totally convinced that it would necessarily be a need to lead horse. That it could sit off the pace some and then come on. The getting sucked along at the fast pace is something that I need to consider more, besides some more clear thinking on the particular horse's running style.

Robert

[RAMON201]

Heres the chart and the prices are right . I went with the 5 and my thinking was the 5 is faster but experence won out , both the 5 and 6 are coming off wins and they both had my attention but I went for the 5.

[admin]

wow

Thank You for the chance to work the race
Wow that makes me feel good
Congratulations Shipper and to all you guys. I read your post .
I am working with my mind open that I can pick up tools to work my races
Thanks to Hat and Richie The match up has helped me
by looking at the total picture of a horses ability

Steve I enjoyed your race
thank you

Bill

[shipper]

Nice work, Bill. Hard to believe how a 4-1 morning line could pay that price. Curious as to how the race actually ran... Marty

[admin]

Thanks Marty


Ramon posted the results up in the handicapping area
Great work getting the exacta !!! $400 +:)

Like doc says . When you have a like a .20 cent favorite all the other horses are big overlays