When detailed matchup analysis fails / thinking outside the box

[RichieP]

Here is a race from the meadowlands this afternoon

the winner is the # 2 paying a FAT $ 17.20 in a 6 horse field

here are his pp's

2 things I notice in selecting this line are it is a maiden clm line and an off track line he also won EASILY in wire to wire fashion

most "pace cappers" doing all this matchup work and blah blah NEVER use this line correct?? here is the pp's

[RichieP]

here is the accompanying e/l graph with that 3rd line being used

[RichieP]

one more screen please this one shows the pacelines of the contenders as u see the 1 and the 6 BOTH are faster early when "matching up"

[RichieP]

final screen showing bl/bl with that 3rd line as u see he is in that 3 horse GAP on the bl/bl line score easy as pie 17 dollar winner for someone NOT over thinking the race and just going with the flow

[RichieP]

ok now go back to his pp's lets throw in that 2nd line because he does not match up using that 3rd line back right? he cant make the lead and blah blah

the 3rd line looks "match up" friendly as he closed to win which he should have to do today right??

here he is using line 2

not looking toooo good is he without having to gyrate thru all kindsa machinations

[RichieP]

whats kinda cool is he DID close to win sitting a nice trip using that 3rd line back puts him # 1 late problem is that "matchup correct" 2nd line back gives him NO corrolary support at least off the lines I used ok?


this race reminded me of a fellow I knew at the track I called him the "beard" I showed him the simple guidelines of working val 3 ( bl3 7.5 and less hide to top 5 etc etc etc) he used my computer like 3 years ago on the Travers card and virtually swept it having no clue other than simple step by step instructions from the Doc and the followup this was on a day when all the so called experts were lucky to tab ONE winner on the card after taking a day to analyze it. The "Beard" finished the card in 30 minutes and just trusted his readouts and fired that day it paid off in spades

sometimes the simple "trusting" stuff gets the cash

Richie