The Vosburgh Grade I

[Fast4522]

I think it is important to share so in turn you can learn. My orig. post and screenshot did not explain the columns or where I got them from so I will disect everything for your review. Granted Someone is looking to bet $100 to win that person will reason differently than the $10 better. Lets say that this kind of better will not bet any horse that has not run in the last 46 days, this puts a big X on number 2,2B,4, and 5. Also for this better who uses Bris Custom PP Generator the 4 F Pace of the last three starts of each runner must be over 300 combined for a Grade I stakes this puts a big X in runners 1,1a and 2 again. Now if you consider late pace of nothing less than 275 for a runners last 3 races combined that puts a big X into numbers 3 & 5. Folks all thats left is the 6 & 8 in this race. I know its not Sartin but if your betting large win bets do you think the only thing to consider is Sartin? The next page will display a screenshot of the past performance and how I have configured my generator.

[Fast4522]

Folks there are overlaps from Sartin to other software that you can use as a companion to Sartin without replacing it.

[TaWee]

you have to LET THE PROGRAM eliminate them ONCE you know how the match up interacts or you will pass many a winner. You have to drop the LIMIT of the ARBITRARY 7.5 beaten lengths as well (but probably NOT at this class level)

CLASSY animals usually IMPROVE from freshening and are NOT such a mystery as a claimer without works.

[TaWee]

The 7.5 maximum beaten lengths rule is one of those "sacred cow" rules I break all the time when THE CONDITIONS WARRENT IT. An improving horse is put into a race, and the trainer either OVER-ESTIMATES his improvement (goes up against a field that is too tough), or wants to hide it by ruuning it against a pace that this one cannot come close to. It's total energy is within the top 5 or 6 in TODAY'S match up but that improvement is hidden by the yardstick of a very fast pace (beaten lengths in the lines evaluated over the limit of 7.5 lengths). It's racing style, in these defeats, becomes EARLIER as it cannot keep up, but this one is NOT going off form since it is holding it's total energy.

The total energy on the horse is improving or shows signs of improving: let's say it runs at the 4 calls with beaten lengths 2,4,9,11 then next race 1,2,4,8 . It is just OVERMATCHED not overwhelmed and the rider (correctly) did not persist with it (often methinks with instructions). If, on the other hand, the beaten length lines read 12,11,10,9 this one just WATCHED the race and NEVER participated in it at all. The higher total energy was just a "gift" of participating in that faster race.

BOTH garnered high total energies but one was PART of the pace and improving, the latter never was and that total energy is passive and NOT accepeted.

[turfdoc]

I have no hangups using a line greater than 7.5 lengths;I agree with the logic expressed.
I also can see betting this horse since he is one of the few "S" horses in a race crammed with "speed".
It doesn't make any difference to me whether the bet is $10 or $100;I am not going to use any arbitrary throwouts for days since last race .This is NOT Sartin.
But,on my graph he is ranked 9th with a line score of 4.3 and his best rating is HE =3.
so I still cannot see how he is ranked 1 or 2 in the match up.
I would like to have bet him-I like his past races and I like Gary Mandella;
any further help??

turfdoc

[TaWee]

any time a horse ranks in the top 5 (especially since this one had TWO lines in the Total Pace Potential [lines 2 and 3]from screen one) ranked two and three - you just canot throw them out...then looking on the incremental decel, this one was a player...THERE IS NOT ONE WAY , we just learn from the perspective of others

put in the lines I quoted and unless your version of the program is faulty it will come out as I described.

[RichieP]

any time a horse ranks in the top 5 (especially since this one had TWO lines in the Total Pace Potential [lines 2 and 3]from screen one) ranked two and three - you just canot throw them out...then looking on the incremental decel, this one was a player...THERE IS NOT ONE WAY , we just learn from the perspective of others

put in the lines I quoted and unless your version of the program is faulty it will come out as I described.

I cant get the horse and I know who won the race lol

here is a screen shot of the lines u said to use showing tpp and inc screens

I also would not have used the lines u did which gives me no chance at the winner Tim

Tu salute if u cashed man! :)

[RichieP]

inc screen

[TaWee]

I will send a screen e-mail and you put it up here okay??

[RichieP]

I will send a screen e-mail and you put it up here okay??

Here is the screen shot u sent Tim

[TaWee]

Sending the Val3 deceleration screen as well so Richie can put it up here....WE MUST HAVE DIFFERENT allgorithms

[TaWee]

excuse me but the e-mail is just NOT working here....I just "cleaned up" the screen before I sent it eliminating the ones that were TOO high...did NOT do that on the Val screeen I sent you.

[RichieP]

ok here is the screen shot showing val 3 readouts

[TaWee]

Someone knew that the 8 was on the UPSWING which shows in that Val screen. This was the "rough" one that I just used as a backup to the Speculator that woke up my interest in that one.