The Phoenix Grade III

[Fast4522]

Perhaps this race might be of interest to discuss.

This is not a chart, it is a advanced program of race 6, you can always look at the one I posted last week to figure everything out.

[shoeless]

Steve,It might be if I knew how to read it. Shoeless

[Fast4522]

R1 1.16 Route Off Pace
R2 MDN Sprint WIRED
R3 1 1/8 Route WIRED
R4 6.5 F Sprint WIRED
R5 7 F Wired
R6 6.5 PRESS
R7 TURF
R8 7 F PRESS
R9 1.16 Route GRADE III WIRED
R10 TURF

Pattern looks Fast for front runners
for Day 2

[Fast4522]

2 3 9 to go for the lead
Tandem runners 5 & 6
If speed blows up runners 1 & 5 will enjoy the matchup
If speed holds and pressing horse wins it will be the 8 Fifteen Rounds wins.

The nice thing is before you bet a 6th race you get to see how the track is running. Such is the case here and to better reserve final cut of opinion 1 hour before race.

I would invite all to join in and talk about this race.

[shoeless]

By looking at the numbers how do you come up with this?

[Fast4522]

Binder refers to it as home grown. If you have a view of the race share it shoe. Everone can be right or wrong here its NBD. Either its business as usual and the only comments are after the race by the not so know it all's or change and make this BBS all it can be. I like that, NSKIA for those who only comment after the race. This screenshot is not homegrown, yes I read the racing form. In case you want to see where I get some numbers from they can be found there.

[Binder]

Hi Fast4522

Im having problems downloading the card from Trackmaster
everytime I tried the card is curupt or if It goes into val 3 all
the data is missing
all horses are listed as FTS

I'll try again

[Fast4522]

Sometimes it is the download sometimes Wadsworth's program has a glitch. Try this, always have a fresh install in another folder that is not called Val and delete everything inside the val folder after that copy everything from the fresh installed folder into your Val folder. you can make a safe folder and always have a new val ready to put into your working Val folder. Or it may be just bad data from the SOLE provider of data for Wadsworth's programs.

OK Equal Time for the #6

[kiltman]

Using SPECPA top three BL/BL are 6-8-4 with 6 horse ranked one on both supp and primary. Total energy 6-8-4 ranked one,two,three. True speed 6 horse ranked one 8 horse ranked two. E/L graph 6 on early side and the 8 on Late side. Depending on odds will bet two of the top three BL/BL.
Good skill to all
Russ

[kiltman]

Bill I have had problems with val3 also not as much with spec but I found if you deleted the dowload card date from both trackmaster file and val file then go back to trackmaster and dowload the card again it will be fine. Trackmaster does not charge again for downloading the same card. I called them to check and they said you can dowload same card with no extra charge. Hope this helps and works.

[shoeless]

Fast,It's not where you are getting the numbers I dont understand the chart you put up. Shoeless

[Binder]

<TABLE>Top 5 final contenders

<TBODY></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=2><TBODY><TR><TH>Horse</TH><TH>Line</TH><TH>BL/BL</TH><TH>LS</TH><TH>Odds</TH><TH>M/L</TH><TH>V/DC</TH></TR><TR><TD align=middle>8 Fiftee</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>22.3</TD><TD align=middle>EVEN</TD><TD align=middle>3/1</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TR><TD align=middle>4 Elusiv</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>18.8</TD><TD align=middle>5.2</TD><TD align=middle>20/1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TR><TD align=middle>1 Wild</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>17.5</TD><TD align=middle>5.2</TD><TD align=middle>10/1</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TR><TD align=middle>2 Daniel</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>16.8</TD><TD align=middle>3/1</TD><TD align=middle>4/1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TR><TD align=middle>7 SGT</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>14.0</TD><TD align=middle>5.2</TD><TD align=middle>20/1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></END>



Thanks guys I deleted evrything and started fresh
Here are my lines and readouts for the top 5
Bill

[TaWee]

How does one leave out the 6 Bwana Charlie?? LAYOFF alone?

[gl45]

Top 5 from an old Sartin program Syn2

[TaWee]

At keeneland you have to consider ANY horse that gets to the 2nd call on top, this one was first at the 2nd call (lines 1,3) and then in it's last several went 4 to 5 wide...THOSE lines are NOT up to what this one could do with a better trip so this one has to be considered and wagered according to what OTHERS with this profile do in earlier contests. YESTERDAY many with this profile hung around well down the lane.

[TaWee]

At keeneland you have to consider ANY horse that gets to the 2nd call on top, this one was first at the 2nd call (lines 1,3) and then in it's last several went 4 to 5 wide...THOSE lines are NOT up to what this one could do with a better trip so this one has to be considered

line three: 5 wide at the quarter 8 wide into the strech and still came out with high rankings so this one can improve today remember I said CONSIDER not bet on this one

[kiltman]

If you check my earlier post I didnt leave out the 6!!! In fact he is top in numerous corollaries.

[TaWee]

If you check my earlier post I didnt leave out the 6!!! In fact he is top in numerous corollaries.
recognize that, it is just that WE share a minority opinion here

[shoeless]

Well Fast I usually wont post my selections because who the hell cares what I think.But since you said to give an opinion I will do so.I usually use Syn2 but since Pino already did I will use Syn 3.Excuse the mess on this but I dsont know how to leave charts. I came up with 2,4,8 based on TPR.If Im to bet I would box those three and bet the 2 because of the big lead I will suspect he will have and the 4.Yes Binder I would actually bet 2 horses this time.Im scared of the 4 because two races back at this distance he just got nipped by the 8.Today a big rider switch on the 4 putting on top jock Bobby Albarado who could make the difference.We should do this more often on the weekends picking one race and let the opinions fly.Binder what's the prize who is right how about a 1 year free subscription to VDC?Shoeless

[shoeless]

Tim, I dont know how you can go back 3 races on the 6 from almost a year ago.I realize he is the class of the race and has a top trainer in Asmussen but I dont see any possible reason to go back that far.I went 2 back and he showed nothing on my readouts. Shoeless

[Binder]

<TABLE>Top 5 total energy and Primary line score

<TBODY></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=2><TBODY><TR><TH>Horse</TH><TH>Line</TH><TH>Total En</TH><TH>EPR</TH><TH>LPR</TH><TH>CPR</TH><TH>TT</TH><TH>HE</TH><TH>FW</TH><TH>FX</TH><TH>PLS</TH><TH>Hide</TH></TR><TR><TD align=middle>1Wild</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>2 Daniel</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>3Korby</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>x</TD><TR><TD align=middle>4 Elusiv</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>5 Level</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>x</TD><TR><TD align=middle>Bwana</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>Bwana</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>7 SGT</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>8Fiftee</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>9 Priemu</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>x</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></END>

[Fast4522]

This is a very open place to post, thank you for sharing your opinion here. It is very sad indeed if someone has a agenda to disturb or wants to lead the flock here. It is my intent in the start post to invite and include all who wish to have a take on this race. Also maybe do this every week.

I will use Binders & Shoeless # 4 with the #8

[Binder]

<TABLE>BL/BL



<TBODY></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=2><TBODY><TR><TH>Horse</TH><TH>Line</TH><TH>BL/BL</TH><TH>Bal</TH><TH>VDC</TH><TH>Hide</TH></TH></TR><TR><TD align=middle>8 Fiftee</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>4 Elusiv</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>2 Daniel</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>6 Bwana</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>x</TD><TR><TD align=middle>1 Wild</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>7 SGT</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>-</TD><TR><TD align=middle>6Bwana</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>x</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></END>

How does one leave out the 6 Bwana Charlie?? LAYOFF alone?


The 6 is a hide line 3 Bal 9 and VDC 4
line 1 VDC 7

[TaWee]

The core of this game is being different, not following the crowd. REPEAT: this one is considered..You PROJECT today from HISTORY. Doubt if I would wager on this race since it appears too well balanced.

At the HEART of the methodology is the belief that it is the HORSE'S intrinsic nature that you are considering (if you are a Chevy Nova you dont' become a Ferrari one day), AND in Steve Asmussen's hands he improves along with the fact that in recording the races he did, he was WIDE (giving up ground...remember your geomety classes where circumferences get bigger the WIDER the circle?) a 40% sprint winner as well.......

[shoeless]

Fast,You can pick the races to do I put them in manualy anyway so it doesnt matter to me.I like your reasoning about nobody needs to lead the flock here.Shoeless

[Binder]

With the 7 scratched the 6 line 3
is still VDC 4
final contenders

8 4 2

[Binder]

But for me mostly

Thank you Doc Sartin

keep we away from those "should wins" forever

Nice going Shoeless and Pino

real happy for you

Bill

[shoeless]

Robby A made the difference and a nice price at that.Fast I have to thank you for that one I would have never handicapped or bet that if it wasnt for you thanks Shoeless

[Binder]

way to go Shoeless

[shoeless]

Binder,Way to go you had it as well,also thanks to Richie and Pino as well.Shoeless

[Fast4522]

Thanks to those of you who participated in this thread. For those of you who noticed I did include the past performances before the race of # 4 # 6 # 8 these runners were mentioned and considered by I think all who viewed this thread. Notice # 6 did turn out to be a POS, good deductive reasoning was done here. # 6 was running back to the barn with its 105 Days. The winner #4 last 3 races early combined was 300 just like last week, also its 3 E late or late pace was over 275 like in last weeks posts. Who says Graded Stakes are too tough? Who would like to do it again next week?
Steve

[shoeless]

Like I said count me in,I liked the way you set it up that nobody's opinion counted more than anyone elses.Good job. Shoeless

[RichieP]

But for me mostly

Thank you Doc Sartin

keep we away from those "should wins" forever

Nice going Shoeless and Pino

real happy for you

Bill


Don't FORGET Mr. Kiltman I believe he was all over that one like "Paddy's Pig" :eek:

Rich

[shoeless]

Actually Pino had the 1 at 21-1 as his top SP horse but pulled a Shoeless move and decided to go back over the pacelines and ended up chucking the 1.I dont know how he does it but Pino comes up with some really good longshots.Some of us remember that 50-1 at Del a few months back that he had tied up with 3 other horses and couldnt connect with the ex. Shoeless

[Binder]

Using SPECPA top three BL/BL are 6-8-4 with 6 horse ranked one on both supp and primary. Total energy 6-8-4 ranked one,two,three. True speed 6 horse ranked one 8 horse ranked two. E/L graph 6 on early side and the 8 on Late side. Depending on odds will bet two of the top three BL/BL.
Good skill to all
Russ

Sorry Russ
I forgot you way to go with the 4
Like I told RichP and Steve
It was one of my all time favorite wins , A great moment
and a highpoint for VDC messenger Thanks for adding to the
group

Good Skill

Bill