Total Energy

[Binder]

Hi Jeff
http://bindfold.com/images/78.pdf page 12

Here is an excellent article by Doc about Total Energy
and is the reason I hide to the Top 5 with ties TE

also I found the manual for EXDC
Can you send me in a email you address I will just send you the hard copy
rather than scan it
You can copy it or send it back when your done

Bill

[Binder]

In a few sentence

ok I will try and hopefully get some help
I will use two examples
Xcape and DuckSauce

This horse is running today at LRL race 1 $30000 purse on Maryland million day
He ran this race at Pimlico

The other is in race 4 today at philly Park
Duck Sause ran this race at DEl today its at Philly running for
$11,500
both lines are from 6.0 races

<TABLE>Total energy example

<TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE border=2><TBODY><TR><TH>PN#</TH><TH>Name</TH><TH>Line</TH><TH>Track</TH><TH>Distance</TH><TH>1stc</TH><TH>2ndc</TH><TH>FinC</TH><TH>BL1</TH><TH>BL2</TH><TH>BLS</TH><TH>BlF</TH><TH>SR</TH><TH>ESP</TH><TR><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>Duck Sause</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>Del</TD><TD align=middle>6.0</TD><TD align=middle>21.8</TD><TD align=middle>45.3</TD><TD align=middle>111.7</TD><TD align=middle>4.40</TD><TD align=middle>2.80</TD><TD align=middle>1.60</TD><TD align=middle>0.00</TD><TD align=middle>78</TD><TD align=middle>EAR</TD><TR><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>XCAPE</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>Pim</TD><TD align=middle>6.0</TD><TD align=middle>22.0</TD><TD align=middle>45.2</TD><TD align=middle>110.5</TD><TD align=middle>5.10</TD><TD align=middle>6.50</TD><TD align=middle>6.00</TD><TD align=middle>0.00</TD><TD align=middle>83</TD><TD align=middle>PRE</TD></TR>2 lines from 6.0 Furlong races </TBODY></TABLE>

Now I am showing the readouts from screen 2 in Val3

Velocity and Energy

<TABLE>Total energy example

<TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE border=2><TBODY><TR><TH>PN#</TH><TH>Name</TH><TH>Line</TH><TH>Total En</TH><TH>F1</TH><TH>F2</TH><TH>F3</TH><TH>SC</TH><TR><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>Duck Sause</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>166.61</TD><TD align=middle>59.74</TD><TD align=middle>56.44</TD><TD align=middle>50.42</TD><TD align=middle>58.09</TD><TR><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>XCAPE</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>168.93</TD><TD align=middle>59.07</TD><TD align=middle>56.66</TD><TD align=middle>53.20</TD><TD align=middle>57.86</TD></TR>2 lines from 6.0 Furlong races </TBODY></TABLE>

Notice how # 4 has a much better Total Energy
and look at the velocity readouts
Xcape is the much better line
also if you add F1 - F2 and F3 you get total Energy

59.07
56.66
53.20
</END>168.93
</END>

[TaWee]

From getting burned repeatedly, I no longer LIMIT my choices in SPRINTS to the top five. Improving early is so common a factor in PROJECTING sprint winners that it is OFTEN the EPR that is predictive. Sprints are so often STYLE over substance (total energy) anyway.

Think about it: a rider has a horse rounding into form and did not persist LAST OUT (NOT quite ready to win), waiting for the next race. Total energy might be down relative to the group today, but this horse projects a better performance today.

Look at the horse's style. If it is 8th total and is a sprint sustained, probably leave it out, but an early/presser, one might have to consider it especially if there was not a lot of front end to compete with it today.

[Binder]

Doc's instructions are to take the Top 5 Total Energy and Primary
line score ranks horses, Its the best 5 of two factors not just Total Energy

[TaWee]

Don't care what the instructions are, telling you what works in the real world.

[Binder]

From getting burned repeatedly, I no longer LIMIT my choices in SPRINTS to the top five. Improving early is so common a factor in PROJECTING sprint winners that it is OFTEN the EPR that is predictive. Sprints are so often STYLE over substance (total energy) anyway.

Think about it: a rider has a horse rounding into form and did not persist LAST OUT (NOT quite ready to win), waiting for the next race. Total energy might be down relative to the group today, but this horse projects a better performance today.

Look at the horse's style. If it is 8th total and is a sprint sustained, probably leave it out, but an early/presser, one might have to consider it especially if there was not a lot of front end to compete with it today.

I don't understand, Tim I am lost ,What about best of the last 3 ?
and what about the other contenders
need help with this idea

[TaWee]

FIRST each race is unique so it has to be evaluated independently.

The e/l balance and style for MOST sprints at MOST tracks is both POSITIVE and early, early/presser. MOST of the sprint winners belong there from our keeping records. IF the sprint projects "speed duel" (two or more nags above 70% median in their history) a "picking up the pieces' S/P type might get there. BUT that usually DOES NOT HAPPEN. Or if the S/P has a huge total energy advantage on it's side, the can overwhelm a field. You see this with higher calss sprinters all the time.

FORM cycle: If a horse is rounding into form, as a sprinter, it is usually by showing improving early speed by velocity, not position. A review of the horse's total record will tell one WHERE on that cylce they are at today and where they HAVE BEEN. If a horse usually runs too fast early (above 70% median) and improving EPR is not as notable a factor. As the horse rounds into form, but not quite there, it will go progressively further into a contest as a competitor. The total energy improves as does their EPR. As the animal progresses the LATER fractions will usually improve as well, but WHILE it is moving that way, the improving early might be the only key to this form cycle improvement. As it does progress, it might fall short last out, but that improvement is still there nonetheless, so often the rider, understanding he has a live mount, will not punish the horse and will not persist, saving it for the next time. So, the final fraction will suffer, keeping the total energy LOWER than it is capable of being. The animal got his prep, he is competitive and waitng for the next time out. A review of all the lines will show what this one has done, so last out can be a guage. STYLE is very OFTEN more important that total energy especially when PROJECTING.

If on the other hand, a sprinter of an S/P nature needs a total energy near the top all the time to be a competitor. That one has to OVERCOME the normal e/l style of the surface and distance so the TOTAL energy has to be to it's advantage.

[shoeless]

Both of you good job,that's more like it. Jeff

[shoeless]

Tim, Maybe read from pg12 on in that FU Binder put up it's some interesting stuff. Jeff

[TaWee]

that's all well and good, but I DON'T FIND IT SO in sprints at many a little venue...maybe they were all at NAME tracks, I don't know

TOTAL energy is like the gas in the tank and the style is the way they get the mileage, BUT you have to project

[TaWee]

Usually top five here just about all the time

[Binder]

Tim
Have you ever studied the power of the top 2
Total Energy horses in standard field of contenders,

[shoeless]

Tim,If you dont mind me asking what do you find that's important at the smaller tracks.Im mostly playing at Charles Town and finding that turn time is very important there. Jeff

[socantra]

that's all well and good, but I DON'T FIND IT SO in sprints at many a little venue...maybe they were all at NAME tracks, I don't know

TOTAL energy is like the gas in the tank and the style is the way they get the mileage, BUT you have to project

It depends upon which set of guidelines you choose to follow. You say you don't rely on the top five Total Energy but project off a performance showing improvement.

I handle it by relying heavily on the top five, but I reach further back for a line on a horse that is showing recent improvement and go with a good line. It serves me well most of the time and 90% of the winners come from top five total energy, at all size tracks. I rarely project a performance

There are many ways to handle most situations. It doesn't mean that one is right and the other wrong. The guidelines are not rules and everyone bends them in the way that works for them.

Dick...