Beginning Matchers

[RichieP]

My strongest suggestion for those just starting out.

1) Download Jim Bradshaw's "5 step approach" found here in this forum. Read and reread it several times. Then practice races using ONLY those guidelines for 60-90 days. Take NOTES.

2) Move to the "Mind's Eye" series of threads. There you will find Mr. Bradshaw's EXACT initial steps he had me do after familiarizing myself with the basics (5 step approach etc). Take your time and read the opening headers to the threads SEVERAL times please. It is THERE you will see EXACTLY what he had me do. Start with the first Mind's Eye thread. Spend at least a month working races in that fashion. Take NOTES.

Then drop me a line.

***** If you do NOT give yourself at LEAST 4-6 MONTHS of focused work on these fundamentals you have no chance of success. *****

This gives one the BEST chance to learn and RETAIN things that will help them matching. That is what Mr. Bradshaw wanted.

All the best
Richie

[mikesal57]

good Morning Richie....glad to see u back...

I have a question about what to label a horse like this..

Is it a e/p with the 1's, 2's, 3's in it PP or is it labeled an need to lead "E" and if there's another faster "E" , it is eliminated?

thxs mike

[VoodooFan]

Styles : 1st call positions only

1) All his wins are wire-to-wire.

1a) can pass horses: can break from 2nd or 3rd before the quarter and
get the lead at the 1st call

1b) Comfort zone: needs at least 1/2 length lead at 1st call

1c) If challenged, not proven he can fight, at least, for the lead


2) Line 1 - won wire-to-wire

Line 3 - won wire-to-wire

Line 4 - fought for the lead at the 1st call , did'nt get it

3) When 2nd or 3rd at the 1st call, was not pressing, was fading and showed
no success at it, maybe except one race, and was fading at that one.

3a) When 2nd or 3rd at the 1st call, he is not passing horses, no power moves.

If he does not get the lead, he becomes Other-Than-Early, he does not win as a Other-Than-Early.

With his recent performance in last few lines, I would say he is Early, must go wire-to-wire.

Corrections humbly welcomed.


VoodooFan

*** Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now what is his 1st fraction when early Voodoo?? Complete your "picture" of this guy. Really good work. *** Richie

[RichieP]

I have a question about what to label a horse like this..

Is it a e/p with the 1's, 2's, 3's in it PP or is it labeled an need to lead "E" and if there's another faster "E" , it is eliminated?

thxs mike

Hi Mike.

Hat only considered a horse to be an early/presser if he was 1/2 length or CLOSER than that to the lead at the FIRST call. He'd tell me "how the heck can a horse be called a presser Rich if he doesn't put his body on the other horse". HE wants pressers alongside the lead horse.I don't know if that helps you.

Styles vary widely depending on whom you ask. It's all good imo.

I'd go with the very first impression you had of the horse when you opened the race and saw him for the first time.

[RichieP]

Quick story from the Hat that might help regarding styles.

Most folks don't know that Jim owned,trained,raced and bet on horses that ran on what he called "Outlaw tracks".

No timer
No judges
No grandstand


Nothing but a dirt surface and some rough characters betting,scheming to take others cash man. I'm pretty sure Dick (Socantra) would know of some of these spots down there in Okie country! I think he also might have told Bill about this.

Hat told me about this Appaloosa he had. He told me that sucker would blow everyone away when the gate popped.He raced him and cashed nice betting on real short races. Problem was after a real short time the horse would stop like he was shot (his words!).

He told me any and EVERY time another horse put a body on his horse that was curtains for his Appy. That is where his definition of "pressing" came from. Racing at the outlaw tracks.

Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw's E/P definition:
A horse 2nd or 3rd who is 1/2 length or closer to the leader at the FIRST call.

Hope this helps someone. True story.

[Charlie D]

I use the Hat's

"within one length" for Early

all others are OTE

so i ask myself this question

What position has it shown it can win from??

Early with a 1c of 23


Slow horse innit

[RichieP]

so i ask myself this question

What position has it shown it can win from??

Early with a 1c of 23


That is EXACTLY what you are supposed to do! Ask questions as you "look all around" at the horses past performances.

Charlie I know you are beginning here. What you just posted is VERY good work and I'm very serious.

My "eye" sees exactly what you see in this animal.

[VoodooFan]

Now what is his 1st fraction when early Voodoo?? Complete your "picture" of this guy.




The only other thing to add, is what Charlie said :

1) He can only win with 23 or slower.

2) He can only win if no other horse challenges him for the lead

3) He can only "fight" at a 23 or slower

4) At a 23 or faster, he can fight, but cannot get the lead.

5) At a 23 or faster, he can fight, but cannot win ( needs 1/2 length lead "comfort zone" )

VoodooFan

By the way, your response turned this into a fine good exercise.

Complete picture of a horse.....like THE HAT would sometimes say,
".....I know what he's gonna do.." or "...in your mind, you have a complete picture of what this horse can do..."


*** Excellent. This is very good. Very good.*** RichieP

[VoodooFan]

Hat only considered a horse to be an {early/presser}if he was 1/2 length or CLOSER than that to the lead at the FIRST call. He'd tell me "how the heck can a horse be called a presser Rich if he doesn't put his BODY on the other horse". HE wants pressers alongside the lead horse.I don't know if that helps you.

Styles vary widely depending on whom you ask. It's all good imo.

I'd go with the very first impression you had of the horse when you opened the race and saw him for the first time.





He told me any and EVERY time another horse put a body on his horse that was curtains for his Appy. That is where his definition of "pressing" came from. Racing at the outlaw tracks.

Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw's E/P definition:
A horse 2nd or 3rd who is 1/2 length or closer to the leader at the FIRST call.

Hope this helps someone. True story.



Hope this helps?? ?? Are you kidding?? ?

Thats a FANSTASTIC definative piece of HAT history AND solid , clear way of identifying what a Early Presser is!!

Perfect for the title of this thread "Beginner Matchers".

Always some grey area to me about this,...almost gettin it...., maybe 90% to 98% of the time, but not always entirely sure.

With this perfect picture and story in mind, some of us can proceed with confidence in classifying and identifying Early Pressers, win, lose or draw, we KNOW we made the right call as of running style...this would be one of the ground basics we got locked and loaded in our pocket.

Damn, it's like Christmas morning to see what's posted next in "Hat Check".

The Howard G. Sartin Methodology, wow, what's better, cause I haven't seen it yet, and doubt I will.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Charlie's 4th sentence in post #6 here is exactly what the Hat wants us to do when going through a horses pp.

Charlie asked questions of the horse he was evaluating:
Can he win running Ote?

When he runs and wins(or just misses for example) what 1c does he need to do it?

What comfort zone of a lead does he need?

Ok remember that "weird thread" about taking a picture of a horse?? That is the same thing that Charlie is doing when he asked questions of a horse and then use the pp's to get answers.

1) Get a projected pace following Jim's outline in the 5 step approach.

2) Once you have that 1c-2c proj pace move to the 1 horse and start asking questions of the horse in front of you. Prioritize pace lines run against your proj pace or faster. Those are the lines you ask the most questions about.

[RichieP]

Learn from my mistakes.

1) Make sure that when you are projecting a pace 1c-2c that you are using a horse (s) who are ON THE LEAD at those calls. NOT 2-hd or 2-nk.

Hat would gruff at me "On the lead means what it says Rich".

As it turns out a member here "Tom" was told the same exact thing by Jim at a seminar. Tom's feedback on what Hat told him can be found here. It is post #113 in the thread.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=39425#post39425

Now if you can NOT proj a pace using that way fall back to Jim's 2nd way he lays out in his 5 step approach.

Third option is passing the race and there is nothing wrong with that man. It is hard enough to wager profitably on races we understand a bit. Let's not make it harder.

[VoodooFan]

Sometimes the first call is too late to be early.

I was arguing a line where the horse was 2-hd to try to make him the leader, and Jim said, rather bluntly, "Well, second ain't on the lead, now it is it?" :D




Maybe the 1st types of Lead horses to deal with: Early :

Wire-to-Wire :

1) 4--1---1---1---1 <------ 4th at the break call, can pass horses to get the lead. Still must be 1st at the 1st call.


NEED-TO-LEAD

2) 1--1---1---1---1 <------MUST be 1st out the gate, 1st at the break
call, and 1st at the 1st call......from gate to wire. CANNOT pass horses.

Not necessarily a rule, but something at the start to work from, evaluation.

VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

A picture from this horses Past Performance

Early 22.2 or slower who cannot win over todays distance of 6f

[VoodooFan]

Not quite, but almost the kind of horse that gives me fits, makes handicapping longer.

Success as and Early and Other-Than-Early horse.

To get a solid picture of what this horse can do, you have to give him a M.O. profile, like a criminal.

He has success at being Early, Early Presser and Presser.

My problem would be to figure his comfort zone. Especially his race at the bottom.......I would have to chalk that up as either inexperience or he was challenged between the 1st and 2nd call.

As and Early, can win between a 22.2-22.9, but with the following stipulations:

At a 22.8 or faster, if he is challenged and fights, cannot win, as an Early.

At a 22.2 or slower, can win with 1/2 length comfort zone, if not challenged as an Early. Needs a easy trip without challenges.

As an Early, he must go gate to wire, Need-To-Lead, 1st at the break call.

Can fight for the lead and win as an Other-Than-Early at 23 or slower.

As an Other-Than-Early, can be a Presser and Sustained Presser with success.

So whether the race runs Early or Other-Than-Early, he has to be considered as a threat if the 1st call projection falls to his abilities.

In general, he has success at positions 1,2,3 and 4.

This is the kind of horse that makes me unsure, probably have some holes in my analysis of him, takes too long to figure out, depends on the other contenders in the race and whats he facing today.

VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

Pace was quicker than Projected, but #4's "picture" told us what would happen

[RichieP]

Not quite, but almost the kind of horse that gives me fits, makes handicapping longer.

Success as and Early and Other-Than-Early horse.

To get a solid picture of what this horse can do, you have to give him a M.O. profile, like a criminal.

He has success at being Early, Early Presser and Presser.

My problem would be to figure his comfort zone. Especially his race at the bottom.......I would have to chalk that up as either inexperience or he was challenged between the 1st and 2nd call.

As and Early, can win between a 22.2-22.9, but with the following stipulations:

At a 22.8 or faster, if he is challenged and fights, cannot win, as an Early.

At a 22.2 or slower, can win with 1/2 length comfort zone, if not challenged as an Early. Needs a easy trip without challenges.

As an Early, he must go gate to wire, Need-To-Lead, 1st at the break call.

Can fight for the lead and win as an Other-Than-Early at 23 or slower.

As an Other-Than-Early, can be a Presser and Sustained Presser with success.

So whether the race runs Early or Other-Than-Early, he has to be considered as a threat if the 1st call projection falls to his abilities.

In general, he has success at positions 1,2,3 and 4.

This is the kind of horse that makes me unsure, probably have some holes in my analysis of him, takes too long to figure out, depends on the other contenders in the race and whats he facing today.

VoodooFan

Voodoo
Here are the screenshots of the 2 early horses in Charlie's race with ONLY their ON THE LEAD 1st call times and positions. That is what Hat wants man. Look at Tom's post and what Jim says.

Looking at the 1c fractions - the BREAK positions - 1c positions ONLY

Do you think one of them will win or will the winner be Ote? Hey it is also FINE to not know and PASS.

Mind's Eye - Early or Ote??

[VoodooFan]

The fastest on the break is #-1, with two break positions at 21.7, 1st out the gate.

The fastest out the gate being 1st that the #-4 has is a 21.9. He can only be challenged and win as an Early horse in a 22.9

The #-4 needs to be 1st at the break call. The #-4 needs a 1/2 length comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.2, and the #-1 can also break 1st position and get the lead at the 1st call at a 22.2.

The #-4 has lost the race out the gate, will be challenged, and lose the rest of the race. (as an Early horse)

The #-1 needs a 2-1/2 comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.3. The #-1 does not win fighting, and the fastest he can fight is 22.3.

The #-1 fades as an Other-Than-Early horse. The #-1 loses the entire race, he cannot win.

This race will run Other-Than-Early and the #-4 will have to be measured against the other OTE horses in the race.

I will be curious to find how right or off I was.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

I also noted you evaluated the 1st call in their maiden races.

I have not been doing that.....I thought this did'nt count.

Like evaluating a Triple A ball players performance, like he will have that SAME, duplicatable success in the Major Leagues.

What's the philosophy on that?

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

The fastest on the break is #-1, with two break positions at 21.7, 1st out the gate.

The fastest out the gate being 1st that the #-4 has is a 21.9. He can only be challenged and win as an Early horse in a 22.9

The #-4 needs to be 1st at the break call. The #-4 needs a 1/2 length comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.2, and the #-1 can also break 1st position and get the lead at the 1st call at a 22.2.

The #-4 has lost the race out the gate, will be challenged, and lose the rest of the race. (as an Early horse)

The #-1 needs a 2-1/2 comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.3. The #-1 does not win fighting, and the fastest he can fight is 22.3.

The #-1 fades as an Other-Than-Early horse. The #-1 loses the entire race, he cannot win.

This race will run Other-Than-Early and the #-4 will have to be measured against the other OTE horses in the race.

I will be curious to find how right or off I was.

VoodooFan

That is what you are supposed to do :)


Great call as the race winner did run O.T.E. as you predicted and neither of the 2 horse shown hit the board.

Good job Voodoo. Here is the result chart

[RichieP]

I also noted you evaluated the 1st call in their maiden races.

I have not been doing that.....I thought this did'nt count.

Like evaluating a Triple A ball players performance, like he will have that SAME, duplicatable success in the Major Leagues.

What's the philosophy on that?

VoodooFan

Ok let me keep my answer 100% Bradshaw please. Sometimes he would use them and other times he would not.

I am pretty sure he would tell you to trust your instincts for that horse in that race but I can NOT quote him on that please.

Not much help amigo. Sorry

[VoodooFan]

Ok let me keep my answer 100% Bradshaw please. Sometimes he would use them and other times he would not.



Thats a good answer. Because you said he also stated the same thing with Tandems, if they can help you, use them, and if they can't , disregard them.

If I did'nt see TWO 21.7 fractions like that with those positions at the break, I would have been unsure.

Very good drill. Now if I could only do this for OTE horse's.....

That thread of the 5 step approach you did step by step with shoeless was pretty good...I refer to it often.

Because it was not a pace-less race, but all the Earlies were suspect and there were no pure Earlies.

It is possible that races like that are the bridge entering the realm of trying to get a handle on pace-less races.

Thats for the far distant future.

VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

Who is the FASTEST horse and will be closest to the lead horse?


Arggg, i knew i'd been mesing it up somewhere

Thanks Richie

[tom]

Am I missing something here?
I don't see any 21 first fractions in either horse?

** Tom. Looks like VoodooFan is referring to lines 8 and 10 for the #1 horse if that was your question amigo.** RichieP