Filly & Mare Sprint - Race 3 - October 24

[tleusin]

I keep coming up with Dearest Trickski, Tiz Elemental and La Tee on top of
Indian Blessing. Nothing in my head can accept this. Would love suggestions
on what I may be doing wrong.

[lsosa54]

Although Dearest Trickski may have enough class here, she is going to get heavy competition early from Indyanne and Dream Rush and she's got the least dominant early speed of the bunch. This will make 7f on the poly very difficult for her even though she'll be outside of the other 2. I'm also not sure she's fast enough final speed wise.

La Tee runs a bit too close to the front in this race for my liking without any real pace advantages early or late. Her speed figures are a bit low and I'm not thrilled about her class.

Tiz Elemental probably has the best running style for this of the 3 you mentioned but I'm not sure she's fast enough or has the requisite class and het late pace ratings are not dominant here by any means.

I'd be looking more for a contender like Intangaroo, Miraculous Miss, Zaftig, or possibly Ventura. If you want a real bomb that's light on class but may get a setup, look at Magnificience.

At 6f, I'd take a look at Indyanne, who is definitely improving, as inside speed to possibly steal this but at 7f, it's going to be tough. I saw here race at KEE and she just held on and there wasn't that much early pace.

I need to do a bit more work on this race.

[tleusin]

I hould have clarified. I am using RDSS and want to know if I am using it incorrectly. I agree with your analysis with the exception of miracle miss.
Thank you for your input.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I keep coming up with the same thing too. I know some of you guys have little hidden tactics and secrets of messing around with it a bit to get some change.

It would be nice if everyone else is coming up with the same exact thing because that is quite a hefty trifecta and super we are looking at.

[Charlie D]

Comparable distance, surface where possible, Top 5 CPR kept

[lsosa54]

Folks, I'm not sure what RDSS is coming up with since I haven't seen any screen shots, but think about this. Indian Blessing's LOWEST Beyer in his last 4 races, which is his one turn mile, is still 6 pts. higher than any of those 3 contenders best career Beyer. This is without considering class, pace, race shape, or anything else. There are several other entries with higher Beyers also.

As we know, final speed is not everything but that type of advantage is huge.

EDIT: Just saw Charlie's screen shot. While only Intang and Indian would be contenders for me out of that group, if I don't hit it, may it be you guys!

[Charlie D]

Match Up

OTE

#3 Intagaroo and #8 Tiz Elemental

[Charlie D]

Line Selection

Best of Last 3 Total Energy, Top 5 TE kept

[Charlie D]

Line selection


Best Pace of Race Last 3, Top 5 CPR kept

[Charlie D]

Well, i've done best SR and 2nd best SR of Last 3 as well and it seems The Modern Sartin Methodology think's Indian Blessing is no good here

[lsosa54]

Thanks for the look, Charlie. I definitely think Indian is beatable but I'm more looking for a horse that is G1 proven, as these are todays conditions. BTW, Indyanne may scratch out due to a fever so that will alter the pace scenario a bit.

For me and me alone, La Tee has been close in some G3's but her last win came at N2X on the turf down the hill. Tiz El won a G3 by a nk, was close in another, but failed to win two restricted handicaps.
I think I'm fooling myself if I even stick these 2 horses in the computer, since they have no final time or pace advantages, and have not shown they can compete under G1, best in the world conditions.

Dearest Trickski is another story. She beat 3yo in the La Brea but has now beaten older 3 out of 4 and won a G1 race at 7F. She would be quite a story, having been a $10,000 restricted claimer at Lone Star in April 2007 - you almost have to root for her! I still don't think she's fast enough but opinions like mine may give others value on her.

Total energy numbers can be deceiving. I would have to think Indian's win in the Santa Ynez on the previous SA poly would give you a huge total energy figure running 7f in 119.4 setting that ridiculous pace.

[Charlie D]

I'd tend to rely on software here than my Match Up as we've got horses shipping from all over place and in nearly readout Tiz Elemental pops up


Got a couple of Tandem loses to others, but think i may take my chance win, place and show with it at decent odds here

[Charlie D]

Indian Blessing's Line 7 looks a bit weird to me Lou

22.3 - 43.8 - 107.1 - 119.9

If she repeats that it's all over innit

[Charlie D]

Some Fast Fractions Posted by other horses around that time too

Help coming from somewhere

[Charlie D]

When you think about it

If horses are running that hard there's no wonder Cal gets high attrition


Gotta slow em down a bit somehow and hopefully this new surface will help

[jms62]

Indian Blessing's Line 7 looks a bit weird to me Lou

22.3 - 43.8 - 107.1 - 119.9

If she repeats that it's all over innit

They were having major problems with the track at Santa Anita during that period. Horses were putting in world record times.. I have to say this race is absolutely brutal... I can make a case for 7 horses

[Charlie D]

Yes JMS

Wasn't that when this Pro-Ride fella was called in??

[jms62]

Yes JMS

Wasn't that when this Pro-Ride fella was called in??

Yes.. They had horrific weather issues, lost a lot of days to cancellations. It was an absolute mess. Anything done during that period is a throw out to me.

[RichieP]

Raw

Best Total energy - #5 Indian Blessing
Best Hidden energy - #12 Ventura
Best FX - #3 Intangaroo
Best E/Ep - # 5 Indian Blessing
Best L/ep - #12 Ventura
Best F3+Total Pace - #12 Ventura

Win contenders:
#3 - Intangaroo
#5 - Indian Blessing
#12- Ventura

Best of luck to all

[Ted Craven]

If you are using RDSS (or Val4 or Spec160) I would be very cautious about accepting DMR 2008 lines when using the 50% DTV adjustment, and expecting that they compare well to lines from other tracks, distances and surfaces. All 2008 DMR poly lines are about 30 DTV points faster than norm (i.e. the 2007 norm) thus, the pars for the current DMR poly surface distances should really be about 30 points faster (in which case, the DTVs would be around 0). We won't get this change from TrackMaster until January's re-normalization of all ITVs for 2008.

Try this in RDSS: in the Configure window, change the DTV % to 100 (i.e. accept ALL of the DTV adjutment, not jut the normal 50% of it). For the DMR 2008 lines with high negative numbers (i.e. FASTER than norm), the final and incremental times are slowed down by the DTV. If you permit them to be slowed down by ALL of the DTV and not just HALF of it, the times will end up much slower, Total Energies will be lower and horses ranked off those DMR lines will rank worse. This exercise of changing the DTV% to 100 will prove that (unless you're only comparing DMR 2008 lines to each other) they will always be overrated compared to other tracks.

So, if you accept this, then switch back to the default DTV% (50%) and pick different lines for those horses which look good only from DMR, or pick not their best DMR line.

That said, it still doesn't help Indian Blessing much, by my readouts. For a price, I'm leaning towards OTEs Zaftig and Tiz Elemental (way too many NTL Earlies here, but no-one I can see who can steal it). I would not leave Indian Blessing out of exotics. The race is still a mish-mash and way too uncertain to bet it if I didn't have to (which I don't...)

Good luck!

Ted

13885

[lsosa54]

With Indyanne out of the race, I'm going to take a long hard look at Dream Rush, esp. if 20-1. If the Argentinian outsider doesn't push the pace too hard, she might be able to get a bit loose.

Indian Blessing won't be far behind so we'll know by the top of the stretch.

If it breaks down early, then I would expect Zaftig to get first jump and she would have to hold off Ventura and Intangaroo.

If I decide to play the tri, I will give Tizzys Tune and Miraculous Miss a look in the show hole.

[jms62]

:eek: Anything Spec 160 users can do except curse the racing gods for hitting us with this revelation 300 minutes to post ?

[jms62]

With Indyanne out of the race, I'm going to take a long hard look at Dream Rush, esp. if 20-1. If the Argentinian outsider doesn't push the pace too hard, she might be able to get a bit loose.

Indian Blessing won't be far behind so we'll know by the top of the stretch.

If it breaks down early, then I would expect Zaftig to get first jump and she would have to hold off Ventura and Intangaroo.

If I decide to play the tri, I will give Tizzys Tune and Miraculous Miss a look in the show hole.

I think Dream rush will still be duking it out on the front end with Lady Sprinter (never headed in sprint) and Dearest Tricksi... I'm not doubting SPec160 as it has given me enough bombs over the years and betting 8-Tiz Elemental.;. Good luck all

[lsosa54]

I think Dream rush will still be duking it out on the front end with Lady Sprinter (never headed in sprint) and Dearest Tricksi... I'm not doubting SPec160 as it has given me enough bombs over the years and betting 8-Tiz Elemental.;. Good luck all

You may be right - good luck as well. As for DMR, that's why I asked and Tom was good enough to supply the fastest times run this year. I got tired of looking at 100 plus SR's and negative tv's with respect to drf numbers. I can't believe the different track maintenance and watering made such a difference. At the mile for instance, we're talking almost 20 ticks faster than the 3 year best from last year's initial poly meet! Absurd (more so the slow times from last year).

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4665

[jms62]

You may be right - good luck as well. As for DMR, that's why I asked and Tom was good enough to supply the fastest times run this year. I got tired of looking at 100 plus SR's and negative tv's with respect to drf numbers. I can't believe the different track maintenance and watering made such a difference. At the mile for instance, we're talking almost 20 ticks faster than the 3 year best from last year's initial poly meet! Absurd (more so the slow times from last year).

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4665

Fortunately only 3 Poly races today... I'm simply not going to use DMR lines...

[Ted Craven]

:eek: Anything Spec 160 users can do except curse the racing gods for hitting us with this revelation 300 minutes to post ?

Jim, at least on my readouts, the 3 suspicious DMR-benefitted horses are still in my top 4, rated off other lines. If you want to see what using a FULL (i.e. 100%) DTV variant would look like in Spec160, rename the file TVHALF.TXT to something else (e.g. _TVHALF.TXT). Also, check the Spec160 Release Notes PDF (which says the same thing). I believe you may have to delete the working DBF files for a card so the calculations can be redone using the changed DTV% settings, which IMO is more trouble than it's worth.

Your idea of using other than DMR 2008 lines looks good, OR accept DMR lines with Total Energy (and similar energy disbursement styles) 1 and change TE points less than a horse's DMR 2008 best.

Good luck!

Ted

[lschofiel]

I like the 9, 8, and 14 in this one.

[literato]

Hello for me 9 win.place
exacta 9-5-3