Mountaineer 4/28 - Compare notes??

[sq764]

Would anyone like to go through a few set races for Mountaineer tonight? I would like to compare paceline selections, then go through 'raionale' of the focus on selections for each of the races.. If interested, maybe everyone could offer their paceline selections and horses they would play for each race?

For simplicity's sake, I would put out races 1,3,4,5,7

I guess I will post my paceline selections shortly and any input as to differing opinions would be greatly appreciated.

Scott

[sq764]

Here is what I selected for pacelines for races 1 & 3

Race 1:

1- 2
2- 4
3- 1
4- 2
5- 3
6- 2
7- 1
8- 3
9- 3
10- 1


Race 3

1- 2
2- 2
3- 1
4- 1
5- 1
6- 1
7- 1
8- 1
9- 1

[mikesal57]

I'll give a few races tonite when I get back

mike

[RichieP]

"SQ"
Are you looking for Rdss user comparison/feedback?

Congrats on the new baby! :)

[sq764]

"SQ"
Are you looking for Rdss user comparison/feedback?

Congrats on the new baby! :)

yes RDSS comparison/feedback

And thanks, the little guy needs daddy to get him to Ivy League school, so lets get cracking

[RichieP]

Scott
I made a video of the early dd tonight. it is uploading then I will ask Ted/Bill to help me get it on the server here at P&C.

gotta run. friend needs help with Boat down at park

[sq764]

Scott
I made a video of the early dd tonight. it is uploading then I will ask Ted/Bill to help me get it on the server here at P&C.

gotta run. friend needs help with Boat down at park


I made 2 race wagers for tonight so far... race 3 I played 4 & 6 to win

Race 7 I played 2&7 to win

[Rverge]

sq, could be bad weather tonite here in the burgh. MNR just 40mins.
Rverge
ps when the hockey playoffs are done and the pens win, then MNR. turf starts right after Mem.day may 25. i like what the tellers tell me about the turf at mnr they call it "durf"

[RichieP]

Here is the link to the video for the early dd tonight at Mnr:

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/media/mnr04282009_dd.wmv

[Bill V.]

Thanks Rich
I really enjoyed the video. You helped me out with a few problems
and gave me better confidence to look at tough races

Good Skill
Bill V

[JimG]

Enjoyed the video Rich. How much did it cost you to get Tony Soprano to do the voice over?

Jim

[shrink1]

Richie,
Great video. I learned alot more from it. Hope you'll do some more. Maybe do an analysis of the Derby.
Ira

[Ted Craven]

Scott,

This comes after the race, but the screenshots were created this afternoon (didn't have time to upload). This discussion is NOT about selections (there is a whole forum for that), but about process - how to use the tools, how to apply concepts consistently.. So let's not worry about the notion of 'redboarding'. In that vein, here are some thoughts about race #3.

I agree with all your paceline selections except for horse #1 (the $4.80 winner), for whom you could take an (important) alternate stance: if you are going to call him a contender (i.e. forgiving the last race), you should consider a consistent approach where you rate it off its BEST recent line (i.e. what can this horse do now, if required). That line for the #1 horse is line 3, not line 2, which looks like this:

16077

16073

Actually, it doesn't much matter if you do use line 2 for the #1 horse, as that would look like this:

16074

In either case, I believe further analysis on the #4 and #6 is required, thus (I know you have the PPs, but for others' benefit):

16078

16079

One must choose a consistent approach, always, and if being suspicious of a horse's BEST EVER line (except perhaps for a lightly raced improving horse whom you would expect to be showing best-ever's with each next race - i.e. not #4), I must be suspicious of the #4's last race race best ever 169 Total Energy (or 83 Speed Rating) and either use a worse line, or mentally deprecate it in my mind. Notice how since February it alternates with a good race/bad race culminating with its best ever last. Perhaps it can win twice in a row, or perhaps it will only finish in the money. At closing odds of 25-1, either an across the board bet, or a Place and Show bet (à la Bill V :)) is in order.

I must also be suspicious of the #6 to win, off a 156 a layoff and no recorded works in 31 days. This is a less likely candidate to win at first asking.

This leaves the more likely win contender to be the #1, whether you used its line 2 or line 3. Before the race, I recorded a win for the #1 (at 4-1 M/L) and #4, with a place and show bet on the #4. A natural exacta was the box of #1, #4, #6. At bet time (I wasn't there), one might consider skipping the #1 at < 2-1 and go with the across the board on the #4.

I think it is important to observe that the #1 was a likely win contender regardless of using line 2 or line 3, and regardless of it appearing consequently ranked #1 or # 4 on the BL/BL readout. Not betting it, was a natural decision (which was what you chose). Deciding between the remaining horses of the top 3 was the decision process.

Again, this deals with adopting a consistent analysis approach, not post-mortem picking the winner. Visible for all to see was the #4 which you called clearly, Scott. I hope you backed it up to place/show at those odds - a classic Sartin wagering approach. The other nuance here, which I think important, was to use the #1 horse's best recent line, using Total Energy, Perceptor Total, or SR to identify that.

I think it's worth repeating a concept clarified by 'Buzz' elsewhere recently: we deal in random, or chaotic, or stochastic events here within an overall, coherent pattern. We don't know precisely when our method will hit, but over time, keeping records, we do gain an idea how frequently it will hit. If we regularly demand price before entering a wager - and apply a consistent analytic approach, using the same rules/guidelines situationally over and over (e.g. per above: suspect best ever lines, back up longer odds horses to place, show, bet), we will certainly reach a consistent ongoing profit.

Hope that helped.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

The Result Chart for race #3

16083

[Ted Craven]

Race 7 I played 2&7 to win

Scott, can you share your reasoning for your choice of win bets here, either based on M/L odds or post-time odds. Here is what my BL/BL looked like:

16084

At 5-1 M/L, I think the #6 looks like a bet, especially with that 6 point gap on the odds line over the next horse. Even if you'd prefer the #6's 4th line, so as to not accept its best ever, the horse still ranks 2nd on BL/BL

16086

Using only the M/L odds (and again, focusing on process), perhaps a case could be made for betting the #6 and the #2.

16085

Ted