Marathon Look @ Derby

[Bill Lyster]

If I understand the Hat's spot play method for picking marathon correctly (and Richie or someone correct me if I am wrong) the two best horses at the one mile mark are I Want Revenge and Dunkirk as you can see by the attached.

Dunkirk was one length off a 1:35.3, or an equivalent 1:35.5 and IWR was at 1:36.3 and 1:35.8 adjusting his last two 8.5f races by deducting 6.4 seconds from the final times.

Something else to consider for the big event.

Good handicapping to all,

Bill

[RichieP]

Win,lose or draw that is EXACTLY how it is done Bill. Good work man!
:)

[mikesal57]

Hi Guys...

I know these are raw numbers...but what about track adjustments?
i know SA is a lot faster than others
mike

[Charlie D]

Mine That Bird, FPLR and Bred for 10 panels

[Charlie D]

The Match Up supercedes everything


Jim is teaching me that when a horse is headed - a neck or head in the pp's - it uses up units of energy because of the PRESSURE the horse feels when another comes alongside it.

He also points out that this " battle" often goes on for an extended period of time in a race while we just see the " point if call".

He says " Rich sometimes this battle can go for over a quarter mile.THIS horse if he can not have to face such pressure today will have ALL KINDS OF LEFTOVER ENERGY TO USE TODAY".

[Bill Lyster]

My humble apologies for doing a less than complete job in my first post. I only rated the horses I didn't scratch from the several eliminations I used to get the top fifteen RDSS horses (They were top fifteen alot of other ways as well I might add)

The bottom half of the attached spreadsheet, sorted by best mile times, shows that the best mile times finished 11, 4, 2 and 1 (yes, the 50/1 winner and exacta!!). Even if you restrict the data to say the last two races, it does not change the outcome.

So I have to apologize to Richie for not following through and I have to praise the Hat for uncovering a spot play that paid great dividends if I had only evaluated all the entrants and then determined the contenders.

Bill