paceline question

[shoeless]

I wish I knew how to put up this horses pp's but I dont Im going to put up the 2nd call, lenghts behind, track variant,distance.Today is a 6.5 furlong race.

3rd back-48.1 1 20 6.5

4th back-47.1 2 10 7.0
5th back-47.4 1 15 7.0
6th back-47.1 1 15 6.5

My question is which paceline according to 2nd call would you use.If you put in the 48.1 his readout will come out worse and that also came from a 2 month layoff.Jeff

[Binder]

let me know what day track race this is from

Bill

[Fast4522]

You would select a good line just like your Aodds program selects. The hat defined good, bad, and ugly in all in his work with Pirco. I will tell you I look at alot of Even lines when I decide to go deeper down. And when you do go deeper down you have to ask yourself the question of "did this runner run well with this type of company today? To answer the question of how and what line will this runner run to?
For printing PP's you need a good past performance generator and Screen Hunter. I am a big fan od Bris and its Past Performance Generator. If you are going to invest the time into any pp generator make sure you have a good laser printer.

[shoeless]

Bill,It's from today Jan 1 the 9th race at Charles Town.The horses name is Winter Rules.The main reason Im asking is because I figure the half trime will be 46.1 so if I use that 48.1 pace he lags far behind at the start but is coming on stong at the end because his final time of the 48.1 was 120.1 and the horse that ran the 46.1 final time is 120.0.The 48.1 for Winter Rules was the best of his last 3.Jeff

[shoeless]

Fast,I prefer the the DRF I guess after this many years Im just used to it.I have a Samsung laser printer which works great.As far as screen hunter goes I just cant seem to get the hang of it even though Bill has put up the directions so many times.Jeff

[admin]

Shoeless Here is my Val BL/BL for your race

The V6 had lines 2 and 3 tied

[admin]

Here is the TM Past Performance

[Chip Napolitano]

Hi Shoe,
Here is a screen shot. If u are uncomfortable with that line what I did was go deep in the pp's and use the closest SR that matches his usual early style. I enetered that line then didnt give the other horse that big 94 SR


Guess what? Look at the readouts the top 3 are the same as Binder's on both readouts the top 3( 2,3,9) are gapped over the next 2

I dont play there but on the surface it appears the race winner will be among the 2 3 9

It's amazing sometimes when u fool with the lines a bit and the basic contender "mix" is the same

Happy New Year Shoe
CN

[alydar_ David]

Jeff,

Here's how I'd view the paceline selection for Winter Rules. This is not necessarily the "right" way to think about it, but it's my thought process.

Last race = beaten lengths of 7.6 eliminate this paceline
2nd race back = in the mud, useable, but I'd prefer a fast paceline
3rd back = won, but useable
4th back = okay to go back if we excuse the mud race...won, but useable...serious knock being the best race of the last ten which is probably not representative of how the horse will run today given his present form.

All in all I'd go with the third race back. However, I'd have second thoughts about even making this horse a contender. I see no reason to think the horse will run anywhere near an 86 today. That's looking at this horse by itself ignoring the rest of the field for the moment. If I thought an 86 was needed to win today I would throw this horse out. Follow?

I've even got more problems with the "best" horse in the race, #3 Turn the Kee, but that's another story.

"Forcing" the race I come up with 3-6-9. I don't like to force races. And I'm not happy with the pacelines I've chosen. Also, those are three short prices.

To me this race screams pass. Win or lose I at least want a shot at a halfway decent mutuel, which it doesn't look like you'll find here.

Incidentally, there are no models for this class , age and distance at CT.

[shoeless]

Thanks guys this is great I should do this more often it really helps getting different points of view.As far as my model goes no horse has won with a %energy over 70 so I discounted the 3 to win.The 9 I threw out completely that last race of his was no excuse and I dont like him from the 9 hole.So I come up with the 6,3,2 but David you might be right about a pass.Jeff

[shoeless]

CT0101 9 6.5 D SH 4+ $19,000 CP=$4,000 4:12PM

THE V A L I D A T O R (VAL3C Screen 7)

┌─┬──────────┬───┬───┬────────┐ ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐ ┌──────┐ ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME Ld│SPR│BAL│ TOT-R│ │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│ │V/DC-T│ │SUPP│
├─┼──────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤
│1│ 2 PAWLE1 │ 86│ 6│171.23-2│ │ 3│ 2│ 3│ 2│ 2│ 2│ 3│ │ 2│ │ 1│
├─┼──────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤
│2│ 3 TURN 1 │ 87│ 6│171.82-1│ │ 1│ 4│ 1│ 3│ 1│ 5│ 1│ │ 1│ │ 1│
├─┼──────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤
│3│ 4 CALL 2 │ 82│ 5│168.98-4│ │ 4│ 3│ 4│ 4│ 5│ 3│ 4│ │ 5│ │ 2│
├─┼──────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤
│4│ 6 WINTE3 │ 86│ 6│169.52-3│ │ 5│ 1│ 2│ 5│ 3│ 1│ 2│ │ 1│ │ 1│
├─┼──────────┼───┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤ ├──────┤ ├────┤
│5│ 9 PROUD2 │ 81│ 7│168.77-5│ │ 2│ 5│ 5│ 1│ 4│ 4│ 5│ │ 4│ │ 3│
└─┴──────────┴───┴───┴────────┘ └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘ └──────┘ └────┘







CT0101 9 6.5 D SH 4+ $19,000 CP=$4,000 4:12PM

BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL3C Screen 6)

HIDE# PN NAME Ld SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE

2 3 TURN 1 87 6 20.0 9-5 CT 6.5D 3/1 32 4

1 2 PAWLE1 86 6 19.5 2-1 CT 6.5D 8/1 44 6

4 6 WINTE3 86 6 18.5 5-2 CT 6.5D 4/1 44 5

5 9 PROUD2 81 7 13.8 4-1 CT 6.5D 5/2 44 4

3 4 CALL 2 82 5 13.3 4-1 SUF 6.0D 15/1 25 4





SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
┌──┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐ │ PRIM │ SUPP │
│ B│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│ │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
┌─┬──────────┬───┤ A│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
│#│PN NAME Ld│ SR│ L│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
├─┼──────────┼───┼──┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 2 PAWLE1 │ 86│ 6│2│17│2│10│1││2│2│2││EAR│ 2.8││3│2│3│2│2│2│3│1│3│2│2│2│
│2│ 3 TURN 1 │ 87│ 6│1│16│1│10│1││1│1│3││EAR│ ││1│4│1│3│5│1│1│2│1│3│1│3│
│3│ 4 CALL 2 │ 82│ 5│4│27│5│20│2││4│4│4││EAR│ 6.4││4│3│4│4│3│5│4│4│4│4│4│4│
│4│ 6 WINTE3 │ 86│ 6│3│19│3│10│1││3│3│1││S/P│10.6││5│1│2│5│1│3│2│3│2│1│3│1│
│5│ 9 PROUD2 │ 81│ 7│5│26│4│25│3││5│5│5││EAR│ 6.1││2│5│5│1│4│4│5│5│5│5│5│5│
└─┴──────────┴───┴──┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘
SCBL Calculated by Program to Conform to Today's Pace







╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗





Hope you can make heads and tails of this

[gl45]

I always assume that every horse is a contender. Jeff and I, we go back and forth on the issue of eliminating the really bad horses. I prefer have the readouts tell me who the bad ones are. Syn does not have the capabilities like Val to hide the non contenders, so I have to do it using some sound judgement and common sense. I will go down in flame like usually do, but here his my redout from Syn. Good Luck.

BTW, HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYBODY

[alydar_ David]

Much ado about nothing: :>)

9th race - Charles Town - January 01, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Turn the Kee 4.80 2.60 2.40
6 Winter Rules 3.20 2.60
2 Pawley's Island 3.40

[Chip Napolitano]

Thanks guys this is great I should do this more often it really helps getting different points of view.As far as my model goes no horse has won with a %energy over 70 so I discounted the 3 to win.The 9 I threw out completely that last race of his was no excuse and I dont like him from the 9 hole.So I come up with the 6,3,2 but David you might be right about a pass.Jeff

Shoe,
your energy readouts are gonna be different with the val compared to Syn 2.
It has to do with the TM downloads so be careful about using any Syn2 data to correlate with Val work a few races on both u will see the differences

great call on the 9 BTW both u and David had the race down pretty cold.

Chip