American Oaks triumph for Hat's marathon Spot Play

[Bill Lyster]

My apologies for not posting this yesterday. I was out most of the day, but had just enough time to get down on this one.

Winner was the 1; mile time 134.5; the 14 had a best of 134.3 but needed a fast pace which did not look to materialize; the 13 was next best at 135.2. The race finished 1-13-12-2-7

Its just my opinion, but mile times from fast paced races need fast paces to materialize again as often the winner ran down a gassed leader. In Saturdays UN stakes the winner set his own pace and could not be caught. Here the pace was 47-112 give or take and more closely duplicated the conditions under which the winner posted its 134.5 adjusted mile time.

[tfm]

Let me begin by saying that I bet the winner. Took her at 2:1, which is below my minimum of 4:1 because I just thought she was better than the field.

But, this doesn't blind me to the fact that she got about as good a trip as you'd want. She was inside until the turn, was patiently handled on the turn, then came around and drew off. It was a very well timed ride by Kent and he showed great restraint in not moving early on the turn.

However, just about perfect trip and all she would've probably been all out to beat the 2 horse, had that one not gotten blocked the length of the stretch. Now, the 2 got an even more perfect trip but with clear run she gives the 1 all she'd have wanted.

Now, obviously, there are races we lose when we're best and races we win when we're not; luck or lack of it plays a huge role in this game. I just like to keep my head on straight and see each situation objectively, 'cause while I can rely on those situations where I'm 'right' but still lose working out in the end, I certainly can't depend on those where I win when I'm 'wrong' ever being anything other than ass luck.

[Vinnie]

Hello tfm:

I enjoyed reading your post about the American Oaks race. I very much enjoyed watching that race as well. I had Gozzip Girl and #13 Well Monied as well as the 2 horses in my P4 and they just so happened to come in 1st and 2nd in the race, but, for various reasons such as you mentioned I too found the race very interesting. Gozzip Girl is a very nice and versatile horse and you are right she had the dream trip coming up and splitting horses for her run down the stretch. However, I found Well Monied's race to be very interesting because she came from way off the pace and virtually circled the entire field to get up for a closing 2nd. This sort of race exemplifies how important saving ground and the good trip matters so much in the outcome of a big race.

Have a Great Evening tfm.

All the BEST!

Vinnie :)