Auto paceline templates /Betting real money testing it

[RichieP]

I know Ted is working on a paceline selector template for the new release. Dont know any more about it (honest!).

I put together a 3 tiered template and figured I'd test it with real money making 2 buck win bets using the TS conditional settings of 9/2 odds minimum at 0 mtp.

The results you see reflect 7 days of betting and just shy of 200 win bets as the other days I am elsewhere away from racing.

Only thing is my "template" is hand picking right now(hours of work looking at ALL tracks) and not automated so I am hoping the template will help in this area.

I for one am in the minority I guess as I definitely DO want a first look at the races I am interested in. But I want the look to be MINE and nothing else. Not interested in last race, best of last 3, best ever etc etc.

I have my own "rules" and they simply involve:
TPR screen
Days since last race
Blf
surface (dirt,poly,turf)
structure

Here is hoping the new version RDSS will be able to help :)

screenshot shows my win bets for the month of October using the autoline/contender/TS conditional bets at 9/2 minimum odds with 0 mtp.

I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man.

[Bill V.]

I know Ted is working on a paceline selector template for the new release. Dont know any more about it (honest!).

I put together a 3 tiered template and figured I'd test it with real money making 2 buck win bets using the TS conditional settings of 9/2 odds minimum at 0 mtp.

The results you see reflect 7 days of betting and just shy of 200 win bets as the other days I am elsewhere away from racing.

Only thing is my "template" is hand picking right now(hours of work looking at ALL tracks) and not automated so I am hoping the template will help in this area.

I for one am in the minority I guess as I definitely DO want a first look at the races I am interested in. But I want the look to be MINE and nothing else. Not interested in last race, best of last 3, best ever etc etc.

I have my own "rules" and they simply involve:
TPR screen
Days since last race
Blf
surface (dirt,poly,turf)
structure

Here is hoping the new version RDSS will be able to help :)

screenshot shows my win bets for the month of October using the autoline/contender/TS conditional bets at 9/2 minimum odds with 0 mtp.

I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man.


Hi Rich .
Is this 7 days or 17 days
Also your rebates would help pay for 7 or 17 days of data files from every
track.. RdSS is not cheap. What is the cost for "Bill from Brooklyn"
to be able to download all thse tracks ??

and what approximatly is your handicapping time worth

Bill

[RichieP]

Hi Rich .
Is this 7 days or 17 days
Also your rebates would help pay for 7 or 17 days of data files from every
track.. RdSS is not cheap. What is the cost for "Bill from Brooklyn"
to be able to download all thse tracks ??

and what approximately is your handicapping time worth

Bill

Hey Bill
The bets were made over 7 days this month.

What I meant about rebates is this: at smaller tracks (Mnr,Rp,Ct, Zia etc etc) there is a point where betting larger wagers actually has you betting against yourself in a way.

Let's make an assumption for discussion purposes ok? Lets say I can easily(assuming RDSS template gives me what I need saving countless hours of manual input etc) bet 700 horses to win a month using my "setup".

Lets also assume that I can make a + 5% ROI on all these bets before any rebates.

So I have made 700 win bets in 30 days. Let's also assume that $20 win bets (after bank has built up and still only 1% of bank is being bet per wager. Anything more is suicide according to Pizzolla and I agree 10000% ) are made.

That is 14k a month bet. Lets take a 6% rebate. that's 840 clams back on that + 700 bucks profit on the actual wagers.

total return risking 14 large a month is 1500 bucks. Not for nothing big deal.

Now read on other sites about all these astronomical sums being bet monthly and I cant "get there from here".

What I mean is if I increase wager size to larger amounts (especially the smaller venues where MOST of my plays are) I am betting into myself and reducing odds quite possibly.

I have had this discussion with Ted privately and told him that CJ over on PA is the ONLY one who sees what I described above happening.

He has stopped betting these smaller tracks for the exact reason I outlined above saying "its not worth his time with the small pools" and has taken to only playing a few larger venues and increasing significantly wager size.

I honestly don't see it but I am not the smartest bulb in the fixture.


As far as costs for "Bill from Brooklyn" or whomever that's for them to find out Bill. I have a 9g a year tax bill on the house here. I have to take care of my business. Trackmaster blessed me with a comp account and I am looking for/exploring ways to exploit that plain and simple.

Drive safe!

[For The Lead]

I put together a 3 tiered template and figured I'd test it with real money making 2 buck win bets using the TS conditional settings of 9/2 odds minimum at 0 mtp.

Only thing is my "template" is hand picking right now(hours of work looking at ALL tracks) and not automated so I am hoping the template will help in this area.

I for one am in the minority I guess as I definitely DO want a first look at the races I am interested in. But I want the look to be MINE and nothing else. Not interested in last race, best of last 3, best ever etc etc.

I have my own "rules" and they simply involve:
TPR screen
Days since last race
Blf
surface (dirt,poly,turf)
structure

I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man.

Richie,

Could you expand on the information you provided above please? I'm not sure I completely understand. Perhaps part of that comes from the fact that I do not use RDSS, so when you say "3 tiered template" I'm not sure what you mean.

Also, when you talk about "rules", you mentioned some areas in general. Would you consider being more specific?

What did you mean by," I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man"?

Lastly, are you suggesting that a template is forthcoming that will import from RDSS and make selections on an automated basis?

Thanks.

[Ted Craven]

I'll leave the details on Richie's hand-done 'automation' to him, but for the record, he is referring to the planned 'Paceline Selection Strategy (PSS)' feature I'm working on, where you compose a set of rules to guide the software to (optionally) pre-selecting a line (or lines) for each horse. Though I haven't gotten into it yet, this presumably continues on to automated eliminations as well (e.g. all but top 5 CPR or Total Energy).

A simple PSS would be 'last line' - no brainer. Another would be 'best of last 3' similar distance (e.g. within n furlongs), similar surface (do you mix Poly and Turf), etc, etc. Lot of moving parts, but trying to set up a user-defined template where you roll your own, make your preferred caveats, etc, etc. Let's see.

Re automated wager submission - upload to the conditional queues of those ADWs providing an upload feature (TwinSpires, PTC, Ubet), or direct interface with each ADW via API or other browser automation (an extension of existing tote interface).

Ted

[For The Lead]

I'll leave the details on Richie's hand-done 'automation' to him, but for the record, he is referring to the planned 'Paceline Selection Strategy (PSS)' feature I'm working on, where you compose a set of rules to guide the software to (optionally) pre-selecting a line (or lines) for each horse. Though I haven't gotten into it yet, this presumably continues on to automated eliminations as well (e.g. all but top 5 CPR or Total Energy).

A simple PSS would be 'last line - no brainer. Another would be, best of last 3 similar distance (e.g. within n furlongs), similar surface (do you mix Poly and Turf), etc, etc. Lot of moving parts, but trying to set up a user-defined template where you roll your own, make your preferred caveats, etc, etc. Let's see.

Re automated wager submission - upload to the conditional queues of those ADWs providing an upload feature (TwinSpires, PTC, Ubet), or direct interface with each ADW via API or other browser automation (an extension of existing tote interface).

Ted

Thanks for the reply, Ted.

[BJennet]

Hey Bill
The bets were made over 7 days this month.

What I meant about rebates is this: at smaller tracks (Mnr,Rp,Ct, Zia etc etc) there is a point where betting larger wagers actually has you betting against yourself in a way.

Let's make an assumption for discussion purposes ok? Lets say I can easily(assuming RDSS template gives me what I need saving countless hours of manual input etc) bet 700 horses to win a month using my "setup".

Lets also assume that I can make a + 5% ROI on all these bets before any rebates.

So I have made 700 win bets in 30 days. Let's also assume that $20 win bets (after bank has built up and still only 1% of bank is being bet per wager. Anything more is suicide according to Pizzolla and I agree 10000% ) are made.

That is 14k a month bet. Lets take a 6% rebate. that's 840 clams back on that + 700 bucks profit on the actual wagers.

total return risking 14 large a month is 1500 bucks. Not for nothing big deal.

Now read on other sites about all these astronomical sums being bet monthly and I cant "get there from here".

What I mean is if I increase wager size to larger amounts (especially the smaller venues where MOST of my plays are) I am betting into myself and reducing odds quite possibly.

I have had this discussion with Ted privately and told him that CJ over on PA is the ONLY one who sees what I described above happening.

He has stopped betting these smaller tracks for the exact reason I outlined above saying "its not worth his time with the small pools" and has taken to only playing a few larger venues and increasing significantly wager size.

I honestly don't see it but I am not the smartest bulb in the fixture.


As far as costs for "Bill from Brooklyn" or whomever that's for them to find out Bill. I have a 9g a year tax bill on the house here. I have to take care of my business. Trackmaster blessed me with a comp account and I am looking for/exploring ways to exploit that plain and simple.

Drive safe!

Hi Richie,

The level of performance you demonstrate here is excellent and consistent with some of the other longitudinal studies you've posted. Re the problem of pool-sized bet limits, William Benter touched on this problem in his article in 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets' but didn't present the algorithm he was using to handle it. In fact, one of Benter's main reasons for playing the Hong Kong tracks was that the huge mutuel pools allowed him to place his average bet - 250k - without cutting into his odds. The important point he makes is that it's possible to reduce your bet size to extract the maximum gain without cutting into your odds.

So the logic behind what CJ is doing is correct. But it is still necessary to know the minimum pool size needed to make your max (or average, if you're flat-betting) bet. This is not a question I often deal with, since I mainly play only the big circuits for just this reason, but I am checking into it because I'm also interested. I will post a more accurate answer when I have it, but Benter's article implies the optimal max bet is a bit less than 1/2 of 1% of the total win pool. So clearly even $20 maybe too big at some small tracks.

My general response to this problem would be to work from the bottom up. With a $20 flat bet, I would guess that many tracks are still playable. Play the high-volume multi-track approach, and as your bank grows, start dropping tracks whose average mutuel pools are too small too sustain your growing bet size. Eventually, of course, you will only be able to bet into the biggest pools. Even without increasing your bet-size the scheme you've laid out implies an annual return of 900% - not too shabby. So, the progress from small tracks to large would be fairly quick.

One thing I'm not clear about - you mention an 18% ROI for the betting sequence in question, but only 5% when calculating your betting scheme. Maybe you just wanted to be cautious, as far as betting goes, but do you think an ROI of 18% or something close to it is unsustainable? I think if you extended the sample to 1k or 2k races you would find it within the range of possibility.

In any case, good luck with this. If your're interested in checking the Benter article, it's included in William Ziemba's 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets', which is available in preview at Google Books.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Richie,

Could you expand on the information you provided above please? I'm not sure I completely understand. Perhaps part of that comes from the fact that I do not use RDSS, so when you say "3 tiered template" I'm not sure what you mean.

Also, when you talk about "rules", you mentioned some areas in general. Would you consider being more specific?

What did you mean by," I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man"?

Lastly, are you suggesting that a template is forthcoming that will import from RDSS and make selections on an automated basis?

Thanks.

Hi "Ftl"
I am breaking each horses entire pps into 2 cycles that involve days since last race. After getting a number on a horses 1st cycle (if I get one at all) I open the pps to the 2nd cycle and allow for "x" amount of improvement over cycle 1.

This is my realistic maximum performance capability for TODAY'S race.

I am only working the following races and passing all others:
1) Open Claimers (NO conditions of any kind)

2) Starter alw where the horses have started for a claiming tag in last year(NO other conditions attached to the race) etc.

3) Nw3 and Nw4 lifetime(NO other conditions attached to the race)

That is it.

Every track, Every surface, Every distance (omitting only 5f races).

Hope that helped :)

[RichieP]

Hi Richie,

The level of performance you demonstrate here is excellent and consistent with some of the other longitudinal studies you've posted. Re the problem of pool-sized bet limits, William Benter touched on this problem in his article in 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets' but didn't present the algorithm he was using to handle it. In fact, one of Benter's main reasons for playing the Hong Kong tracks was that the huge mutuel pools allowed him to place his average bet - 250k - without cutting into his odds. The important point he makes is that it's possible to reduce your bet size to extract the maximum gain without cutting into your odds.

So the logic behind what CJ is doing is correct. But it is still necessary to know the minimum pool size needed to make your max (or average, if you're flat-betting) bet. This is not a question I often deal with, since I mainly play only the big circuits for just this reason, but I am checking into it because I'm also interested. I will post a more accurate answer when I have it, but Benter's article implies the optimal max bet is a bit less than 1/2 of 1% of the total win pool. So clearly even $20 maybe too big at some small tracks.

My general response to this problem would be to work from the bottom up. With a $20 flat bet, I would guess that many tracks are still playable. Play the high-volume multi-track approach, and as your bank grows, start dropping tracks whose average mutuel pools are too small too sustain your growing bet size. Eventually, of course, you will only be able to bet into the biggest pools. Even without increasing your bet-size the scheme you've laid out implies an annual return of 900% - not too shabby. So, the progress from small tracks to large would be fairly quick.

One thing I'm not clear about - you mention an 18% ROI for the betting sequence in question, but only 5% when calculating your betting scheme. Maybe you just wanted to be cautious, as far as betting goes, but do you think an ROI of 18% or something close to it is unsustainable? I think if you extended the sample to 1k or 2k races you would find it within the range of possibility.

In any case, good luck with this. If your're interested in checking the Benter article, it's included in William Ziemba's 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets', which is available in preview at Google Books.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Thanks "B" for the info on Bentner and betting. I will definitely check out the Google preview.

The 5% is just complete cautious guesstimate.

Also to be honest this is completely boring and monotonous man. I have done no and I me no handicapping contenders/lines/wagers/matching etc. The horse is either in top 3 Bl/Bl after hiding to 5 1 at a time from the bottom of Bl/Bl up (super easy to program no Ted? ;)) or he's not.

My school stuff gets real intense starting 11/7 for 3 months so who knows. We will see what happens.

Very best to you "B" and stay cool

[tfm]

Rich

You're losing me here.
If you're able to maintain this volume of bets and return over the course of a year you could easily make over $100k betting $200 a pop.

And, what does this have to do with bettors that barely crack a positive ROI?
They need to put in more bets and bet more in order to make it worth while.

Doubtful anyone over at PA, for example, is close to your ROI over an extended period of time.

[For The Lead]

Hi "Ftl"
I am breaking each horses entire pps into 2 cycles that involve days since last race. After getting a number on a horses 1st cycle (if I get one at all) I open the pps to the 2nd cycle and allow for "x" amount of improvement over cycle 1.

This is my realistic maximum performance capability for TODAY'S race.

I am only working the following races and passing all others:
1) Open Claimers (NO conditions of any kind)

2) Starter alw where the horses have started for a claiming tag in last year(NO other conditions attached to the race) etc.

3) Nw3 and Nw4 lifetime(NO other conditions attached to the race)

That is it.

Every track, Every surface, Every distance (omitting only 5f races).

Hope that helped :)

Richie,

Thanks for the reply.

[RichieP]

Rich

You're losing me here.
If you're able to maintain this volume of bets and return over the course of a year you could easily make over $100k betting $200 a pop.

And, what does this have to do with bettors that barely crack a positive ROI?
They need to put in more bets and bet more in order to make it worth while.

Doubtful anyone over at PA, for example, is close to your ROI over an extended period of time.

John
That is exactly it man. You CAN'T bet 200 a pop at Zia,Remington,CT, Fl,FE
etc. You cant.

Hey also let me see what shakes after another 200 know what I mean? I do know day-day it has been remarkably consistent to the point where I have told Barb on the phone it's scary. PS - Now watch there is the Molokio! lmao

I hope that it can be programmed John cause then it becomes a simple matter where now it is REALLY a chore ok?

Dealing only with facts I worked countless hours picking lines/hiding to 5/entering conditionals at TS for 7 days to make what 10 beans a session? Only way to increase bets is from profits and % of bank and to grow to decent levels this is a ways off.

7-8 hour days doing all the steps I laid out manually is a big chunk out of my life now big guy.

We will see what shakes.

Keep kicking ass on the synthetics! #:1: there in my book NO question

[seattlesnake]

hi Rich,

projecting your bank has reached $20k ...will a $200 win bet really affect the pool for your specific track... and if it is...well you already know the answer im sure.:) must be a slow racing day!!! :)

[RichieP]

Rich



Hey Big Man
Just did a rundown at your Woodbine and see its doing ok here!!
Not enough bets though.

;)

[Bill V.]

Hi Rich
In no way did I wish to imply that your comp from trackmaster was not well earned and deserved. We all have issues outside of racing that must be addressed. I was unable to call you or reply back here as I was in court all day.
The reply's you have gotten as well as your reply back to me have helped me better see how what your doing could be a good way to make money

With all respect my questions were not meant to dwell into your personal betting ability. My question is more in, to me betting $2.00 win bets on 191 races in 7 days ( and I already knew your template specs) so I kind of know
you need to look at many data files to get to 191 races

All I wanted to point out was, Can a $2.00 better bet as easy and methodically as a $5 $10 $20 $50 $100. bet wagerer ? Can a $2.00 better
afford all the data files ? so I really was asking for a guesstimate
of what you would have spent on data cards? to get your 191 races

If your overhead is so high will your confortzone to bet enough money to
cover your non comped data file cost

Just looking at it from B from B's point of view

Go bombers
hello Mrs P

Bill

[For The Lead]

All I wanted to point out was, Can a $2.00 better bet as easy and methodically as a $5 $10 $20 $50 $100. bet wagerer ? Can a $2.00 better afford all the data files ? so I really was asking for a guesstimate of what you would have spent on data cards? to get your 191 races

If your overhead is so high will your confortzone to bet enough money to cover your non comped data file cost

Just looking at it from B from B's point of view

Go bombers
hello Mrs P

Bill

Hello Bill,

Hope you don't mind if I jump in here. I don't know exactly how much data files for RDSS are per card or per month, but an educated guess would be in the area of $150 per month on an unlimited basis.

[tfm]

Rich

Here are my overall numbers at WO. Keep in mind that I've had a bad couple of weeks recently as I've been busy with work and screwing up my wagering bigtime.

# of bets: 214 (it's actually much more than that as I usually play 2 number exactas which TS counts as single bets)

win%: 14.95

$1 ROI: +.046

What's interesting is that I started out 1 for 39 at WO, with the winner being my 1st play there. I continued 2 for my first 55 plays; and 3 winners out of my first 61 plays.


This is what happens when the data is accurate and I can just read the info off my charts. Accurate data means good decisions.

Guess the high takeout there isn't having an affect, huh?

[RichieP]

Rich

Here are my overall numbers at WO. Keep in mind that I've had a bad couple of weeks recently as I've been busy with work and screwing up my wagering bigtime.

# of bets: 214 (it's actually much more than that as I usually play 2 number exactas which TS counts as single bets)

win%: 14.95

$1 ROI: +.046

What's interesting is that I started out 1 for 39 at WO, with the winner being my 1st play there. I continued 2 for my first 55 plays; and 3 winners out of my first 61 plays.


This is what happens when the data is accurate and I can just read the info off my charts. Accurate data means good decisions.

Guess the high takeout there isn't having an affect, huh?

No BS if that was me going 1/39 out of the box John I am done like burnt toast. Dead serious.

Awesome numbers and i know you are betting bit more than deuces ha!
:)

Awesome

[RichieP]

Hi Rich

Bill

Morning Bill!

I just looked and the unlimited for RDSS is 120 a month for the data files.

Mom says "Hi Bill Varone" :)
she is not too happy after last night's Yanks game :(

:)

[Profiler8]

When there is an auto paceline selector a unlimited data plan is really good. You can go through the races and look for good value bets. I think the most of us have not the time to select pacelines for all the racecards. Clearly a computer makes failures, but you can investigate if the paceline is a good choise. Everything gets easier and sometimes you get wrong paceline. But overall it is really good idea, because you have more opportunities to find overlays.

I am really looking forward for this feature.

Greetings
Tim

[Houndog]

The major advantage I can see with an automated paceline method is that you will have a degree of consistency as opposed to zigging and zagging all over the place.

A person should have the ability to look at more races and more time for readout interpretation.

[For The Lead]

The major advantage I can see with an automated paceline method is that you will have a degree of consistency as opposed to zigging and zagging all over the place.

A person should have the ability to look at more races and more time for readout interpretation.

You are quite correct. I have been using automated pace lines for several years in a program of my own. Before you even get started you have to make a decision as to what you will be satisfied with as an end result. The computer does not “read” the form, it just looks at pace lines based on the criteria built into the program. Then you begin the constant trial and error making sure the program is picking the line you intended it to pick. And even when you are done “tweaking it”, until you actually run a very large sample of races, you really don’t know if you have been successful or not. Fortunately for RDSS users, Ted is doing the hard part. Once you have the ability in your hands all that is left is for each user to set up their own personal choices of pace line selection. That is where the users work begins.
As you said, it is consistent, so if you keep decision models based on the automated pace line selections you set up, those will be the results from which you will also make a decision on whether or not you like the parameters you used when setting up the automated pace line selection process. If, after gathering a very large sample of races in your decision models, you are happy with what you see, then you are “off to the races” so to speak.
I can tell you that in the beginning it was very hard for me. I was so used to making pace line decisions on my own that it seemed to me that I was always second guessing, but in the end I decided that I achieved what I was looking for, consistency. Computer programs don’t have headaches, bad hair days or outside feelings brought on by real world events, it just picks pace lines, the same way every day.
And, again, you are correct that this allows you to spend more time on interpreting your readouts and looking at more races.

[RichieP]

Testing my selector template on today's NYB turf stakes at Belmont. Hope they run them with this being last day for the meet what would they "save it" for?

Anyway here is the 7th race "Ticonderoga" going 9f

Top 3 Bl/Bl (2,7,4)have good gap and own most of corollaries.

The #7 Love Code is highest ml odds of the 3 at 5/1 and also appears to be positionally advantaged looking at his EP style.

[RichieP]

Belmont 9th:

Here is the 9f Mohawk on the grass

Big fav Banrock is no giant looking at the lineup.

Looking at top 3 Bl/Bl the #1 "Hanging" is top 3 total energy and best Deceleration. Nice combo going long distance at 8/1 ml showing.

[Bill V.]

Hi Rich
looking at your lines choices you sure have no problem going way back
:eek:

GS on the Belmont weeds

There coming from Mars !!
fractals and chaos

Bill

[mikesal57]

Hi guys...

On Pace and Cap Day we had seen Love Cove have a nice easy lead and then chucked it...and with the 8 & 9 in this race he'll probably have to run faster to stay closer to the lead..

The turf most likely be yielding with all the rain we had yesterday..

Why did MARAGH go to the #2 when he won twice on the #4???

Anyway..I think the 2 can close better than the 4 on an off turf..

#2 win...

gl

mike

[RichieP]

Hi Rich
looking at your lines choices you sure have no problem going way back
:eek:

GS on the Belmont weeds

There coming from Mars !!
fractals and chaos

Bill

Hey Bill!
Just came in from the park. Nice sunny day, women running amuck :)

Here are the 7th and 9th reduced to top 5 Bl/Bl after scratches

[mikesal57]

Hi Richie...

Just looked at the 9TH...

Bancock will be the big fav...I like the 5 he was in this race last year and lost by a length and a half with a trouble trip..coming in this race in form and maybe be the ex .

gl

mike

[Bill V.]

Hello Rich and Mike

Yes Mike that was Pace and Cap day for love cove
line 2

[Bill V.]

Looks like Love cove won this race last year -line 7

[RichieP]

The key horse #7 goes 8/1 and places.

Exacta, tri and super are in final 5 posted after scratches.

[tfm]

Rich

I didn't play these races but I had the NYRA show on and it was mentioned that Bankrock had a perfect trip last out and that Pennington would be loose and tough to beat. Just before the race I pulled out the chart for their last race. (I've attached it below.)

Let's assume, that Banrock got a perfect trip because he was able to come through on the inside. I don't really look at pace in these races so I don't know whether the pace was supposed to be slow or fast. What I do know is what I see:

A race where there's only one horse that passes more than a single horse in the race. In fact, Banrock passes 4 horses in a race that went 1-2-3 (qtr & half positions) otherwise. In other words, HE, not the others, got the worst of it.

Now, I don't know how this relates to pace and I'm always puzzled by what the pace handicappers have to say. I'd rather let the horses and the race SHOW me how it was run (and who it favored).

[BJennet]

Testing my selector template on today's NYB turf stakes at Belmont. Hope they run them with this being last day for the meet what would they "save it" for?

Anyway here is the 7th race "Ticonderoga" going 9f

Top 3 Bl/Bl (2,7,4)have good gap and own most of corollaries.

The #7 Love Code is highest ml odds of the 3 at 5/1 and also appears to be positionally advantaged looking at his EP style.

Hi Richie,

It seems to me, in stakes races, APV is often deadly. Clearly this was an extremely contentious race, although I had the winner as #2 TE off its last race, I liked the #7 better for the win. In any case standard Sartin practice would have made them both plays, given that the #2 and #4 were overbet, and possibly the #2 could be thrown out for its poor record on softer turf.

Thanks for posting this.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

The key #1 went 11/1 and had nothing.

Chalk wins and place horse not in mix.

Thanks everyone for jumping in etc :)

[RichieP]

Today was the 1st day since I started thread (honest) that I jumped back in with my method as outlined in earlier posts. Why? Honestly it is brutal amount of work to do by hand man and I dont have the time like that anymore.

Very simple I do my lines for all tracks with my template then straight to Bl/Bl and hide 1 at a time from bottom up til there are 5 guys left. Then it is to TS conditionals and I enter all 3 top Bl/Bl horses with a 9/2 at 0 mtp conditional win bet for 2 beans.

Very simple and so far incredibly consistent hitting right around the 15% mark which I know is good % for higher odds bets. From 8 betting days with real money I have 7 winning days and 1 losing day betting ALL these horses.

This was day 8 of my auto template doing ONLY the races I described earlier. If you check the races/bets shown you will see they are EXACTLY the types I described with NO deviations. These are the ONLY races I am betting this month on my TS account.

:)

[RichieP]

Well over 200 auto bets now with NO handicapping of any kind.

Ted here is hoping you can work some magic man stuff on the new release
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoZUQ0QC19c

[Ted Craven]

It's very impressive Rich and I am certainly continuing work on RDSS 2.0. Looking forward to what you will do with a selection template like this!

I particularly like the consistency you seem to be reporting. What was it - just one losing day of minus single digit ROI - the rest positive?

Don't kill yourself to prove a point: it seems kind of unlikely that unless you get 'creative', you will all of a sudden lose large percentages of your bankroll daily. Even if you encounter a few more back-to-back losing days of single digits ROI - so your cumulative ROI reduces to +10%...what a shame ;)

I think TwinSpires does not permit Place Pool conditional betting, otherwise some of your bets could probably be made in the Place pool, what to speak of Exacta-as-win-bets. I'm pretty sure the proposed RDSS betting module will handle this. (Too bad I can't open a TwinSpires account :( ).

I know you are taking time to smell the roses too, and care for those around you. But I know you know how to work hard, and thanks for this inspiration!

Ted

[BJennet]

Today was the 1st day since I started thread (honest) that I jumped back in with my method as outlined in earlier posts. Why? Honestly it is brutal amount of work to do by hand man and I dont have the time like that anymore.

Very simple I do my lines for all tracks with my template then straight to Bl/Bl and hide 1 at a time from bottom up til there are 5 guys left. Then it is to TS conditionals and I enter all 3 top Bl/Bl horses with a 9/2 at 0 mtp conditional win bet for 2 beans.

Very simple and so far incredibly consistent hitting right around the 15% mark which I know is good % for higher odds bets. From 8 betting days with real money I have 7 winning days and 1 losing day betting ALL these horses.

This was day 8 of my auto template doing ONLY the races I described earlier. If you check the races/bets shown you will see they are EXACTLY the types I described with NO deviations. These are the ONLY races I am betting this month on my TS account.

:)

Hi Richie,

Glad to see the excellent work is going forward. I just wanted to throw in a study I did of TE over the last few months that's a slightly different take on the autopaceline concept, in case some aspect of it might be useful.

I mainly began this to check what seemed to me to be the improved performance of TE, having switched from SpecPa to Spec 160. Filtering out races for 2yos, 3yos, all maidens, and all races under 10k, I selected pacelines by the standard Sartin best (TE for this study) of last three, same distance, same surface.

Over 1140 races (but with little change after the first 200), these were the win rates by TE rank:

1. .38
2. .25
3. .21
4. .10
5. .05

This confirmed to me that one of the big improvement of this software over earlier Sartin software whose results Doc tabulated in the later Follow Ups, is that it clusters more winners among the top 3 TE ranks. If you go through the many worksheets posted in the Follow Up, you find that the hit rates of the Top BL/BL horses (which are basically ranked by TE) taper off much more gradually.

As far as the average mutuel of the top three, by TE rank:

1. $7.40
2. $10.00
3. $12.20

This confirmed for me a truth that your study also seems to be finding, and that Doc asserted in one of his more honest Follow Ups, that most of the profits from using the methodology could only be found in about 20% of races. And that was 10-15 years ago, when prices were better. I would say that now, it's about 15% (talking only about win betting).

However the upside is demonstrated by your results. If you set minimum odds a bit higher, the profits are still there. When Guy first talked to me about the Spec software, he told me that by cherrypicking tracks and only playing horses at odds of 6/1 or greater, he was making 200% profit. I wondered if he had gotten hold of some medical marijuana. But after I began to see the average mutuels (which didn't change much) during my early period of my study, I simply adjusted the minimum odds at about two ticks above hit rate - TE- 1. 3-1 TE 2.5-1, and TE 3. 7-1. The results over 1140 races- 200% ROI. What's really strange about this is that it produced nearly the exact same ROI at each rank, even though there were many more plays for TE -1 than the other two. Now obviously this could be an outlier, but there was very little variance in the results.

I'm putting this out there so that if you or anyone else who's interested, can check this out against their own results and see if you get anything similar.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Hi Richie,

I just wanted to throw in a study I did of TE over the last few months that's a slightly different take on the autopaceline concept, in case some aspect of it might be useful.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Hi "B"
This is awesome stuff!

I was on the phone with Barb when I read your post and she told me she also favors total energy so she is for sure checking your post out going forward.

I'm definitely checking it out and I love your minimum odds layout cause unless you are getting a 3/1 on a strong top rank buck I can't make money on lower odds horses. Just going "gut feel" your odds minimums shown are totally in my comfort zone :)

Thanks for sharing and I will definitely let you know what I see going forward a bit

Tu Salute "B"!

[RichieP]

I know you are taking time to smell the roses too, and care for those around you. But I know you know how to work hard, and thanks for this inspiration!

Ted


Ted I know you are working tons of lonely hours behind a keyboard and screens to make something special. All I can say is DO IT baby do it!!!! :D
Really good vibes!

You are also a good friend to both Mom and me so I am very lucky man indeed. Now if we could only get your Mum home for a while to do some races!! :eek:

Listen to these 2 go at it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FlaY1P7mkc&feature=related

[Bill V.]

15 races

Hi Rich

You know me better than anyone here'
with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races
Rough guess How long would it take me to
1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win
2, select the lines that fit your template
3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for
horses that you will enter into your online betting system
4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets

Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning
from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ?
Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system"

anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ??

[RichieP]

15 races

Hi Rich

You know me better than anyone here'
with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races
Rough guess How long would it take me to
1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win
2, select the lines that fit your template
3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for
horses that you will enter into your online betting system
4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets

Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning
from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ?
Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system"

anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ??

Hi Bill
Those 15 races soup to nuts is 3 1/2 hours - 4 hours

a full Saturday of 40 races or so is 9-11 hours

The reason it takes so long is the paceline eventually chosen has passed 3 crietria or different stages to get picked.

Thats the big difference time wise Bill.
A race that takes me 1 minute to pick lines for using blf 7.5 or less might take 15-20 minutes this way cause I have to keep stuff in my head

[BJennet]

Hi "B"
This is awesome stuff!

I was on the phone with Barb when I read your post and she told me she also favors total energy so she is for sure checking your post out going forward.

I'm definitely checking it out and I love your minimum odds layout cause unless you are getting a 3/1 on a strong top rank buck I can't make money on lower odds horses. Just going "gut feel" your odds minimums shown are totally in my comfort zone :)

Thanks for sharing and I will definitely let you know what I see going forward a bit

Tu Salute "B"!

Hi Richie,

Hope those results can be of some use. Just wanted to add that most of this sample was taken from the NY and CA circuit tracks, Woodbine, Monmouth, with a few additional mid-level tracks. TE is extremely effective at the bigger tracks, especially SA, HOL, and WO, and worked very well at GP during the winter. I'm not completely sure that these results could be extrapolated to smaller tracks, which may be less well-maintainted and be running more erratic animals, even at the same class levels.

One phenomenon I found at some lower-level tracks, and would like to explore more, is 'TE-clustering', that is many races at these places seem to have horses with extremely bunched TEs, to the point where it can't be used a separator. My take on this is these are horses of very equal ability where the winner is the horse who happened to 'wake up' that day, or where other factors have greater significance. But as I said, this is an area for further exploration maybe for those who play or know these tracks well.

This probably goes without saying, but TE doesn't work as well with racing surfaces and tracks which are either extremely early or late, which seem to me to comprise about 15% of races.

Best of luck to you and Barb.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Hi Richie,

Hope those results can be of some use. Just wanted to add that most of this sample was taken from the NY and CA circuit tracks, Woodbine, Monmouth, with a few additional mid-level tracks. TE is extremely effective at the bigger tracks, especially SA, HOL, and WO, and worked very well at GP during the winter. I'm not completely sure that these results could be extrapolated to smaller tracks, which may be less well-maintainted and be running more erratic animals, even at the same class levels.

One phenomenon I found at some lower-level tracks, and would like to explore more, is 'TE-clustering', that is many races at these places seem to have horses with extremely bunched TEs, to the point where it can't be used a separator. My take on this is these are horses of very equal ability where the winner is the horse who happened to 'wake up' that day, or where other factors have greater significance. But as I said, this is an area for further exploration maybe for those who play or know these tracks well.

This probably goes without saying, but TE doesn't work as well with racing surfaces and tracks which are either extremely early or late, which seem to me to comprise about 15% of races.

Best of luck to you and Barb.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Morning B
Well Barb and myself found 3 races last night to look at using your outline:
Penn 5th
Mnr 7th
Mnr 8th

I haven't heard from her yet but it was very profitable as your minimum odds requirements per ranking only produced 2 plays from the 3 races and 1 very nice winner:

Mnr 7th - #5 (#1 total energy off last line. why big price? going up in company off sharp win) WINS $15.20

Definitely something to check out here and again thank you for sharing. The very best vibes to you and yours :)

[RichieP]

15 races

Hi Rich

You know me better than anyone here'
with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races
Rough guess How long would it take me to
1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win
2, select the lines that fit your template
3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for
horses that you will enter into your online betting system
4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets

Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning
from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ?
Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system"

anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ??

Hey Bill I have an idea.
I can email you the night before the races I would look at. They are basically the bread and butter open claiming races and starter alw races at the tracks.

NO:
maidens
1 line horses
stakes bucks
real oink oinks
etc etc

Virtually every horse in every race has 10 pacelines in the pps. Many of the races have very full fields also.

Forget my template, minimum odds stuff etc. You have known me for over a decade. I bore easily and have to do other stuff :)

Use your bl3 or whatever method YOU favor and take that 30 minutes and work some races, see what shakes

Remember "Macker" at the Big M? "There will be more! Wooooo"

:eek:

These are today's races fwiw
aqu - 8
ded - 8.9
gg - 2.3.6
haw - 3.4.9
kee - 5.9
lrl - 2.3
osa - 5
pen - 2.7
suf - 1.2.3.4.5.7.8
wo - 1.3.5

[Bill V.]

Thank You Rich

This is great !!!

Hey Rich

I worked race 7 myself
Look at the POR the 5 ran in the last race

Using Val 4 mode The adjusted speed rating is a 92
I thought this was out of wack but I checked RDSS
and the raw POR time and Fastest pace last race the 5 was a bet !!

Thank you to everybody ..:)
nothing like reading listening using and winning

Bill

[jms62]

Hi Richie,

Glad to see the excellent work is going forward. I just wanted to throw in a study I did of TE over the last few months that's a slightly different take on the autopaceline concept, in case some aspect of it might be useful.

I mainly began this to check what seemed to me to be the improved performance of TE, having switched from SpecPa to Spec 160. Filtering out races for 2yos, 3yos, all maidens, and all races under 10k, I selected pacelines by the standard Sartin best (TE for this study) of last three, same distance, same surface.

Over 1140 races (but with little change after the first 200), these were the win rates by TE rank:

1. .38
2. .25
3. .21
4. .10
5. .05

This confirmed to me that one of the big improvement of this software over earlier Sartin software whose results Doc tabulated in the later Follow Ups, is that it clusters more winners among the top 3 TE ranks. If you go through the many worksheets posted in the Follow Up, you find that the hit rates of the Top BL/BL horses (which are basically ranked by TE) taper off much more gradually.

As far as the average mutuel of the top three, by TE rank:

1. $7.40
2. $10.00
3. $12.20

This confirmed for me a truth that your study also seems to be finding, and that Doc asserted in one of his more honest Follow Ups, that most of the profits from using the methodology could only be found in about 20% of races. And that was 10-15 years ago, when prices were better. I would say that now, it's about 15% (talking only about win betting).

However the upside is demonstrated by your results. If you set minimum odds a bit higher, the profits are still there. When Guy first talked to me about the Spec software, he told me that by cherrypicking tracks and only playing horses at odds of 6/1 or greater, he was making 200% profit. I wondered if he had gotten hold of some medical marijuana. But after I began to see the average mutuels (which didn't change much) during my early period of my study, I simply adjusted the minimum odds at about two ticks above hit rate - TE- 1. 3-1 TE 2.5-1, and TE 3. 7-1. The results over 1140 races- 200% ROI. What's really strange about this is that it produced nearly the exact same ROI at each rank, even though there were many more plays for TE -1 than the other two. Now obviously this could be an outlier, but there was very little variance in the results.

I'm putting this out there so that if you or anyone else who's interested, can check this out against their own results and see if you get anything similar.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

This post gets my vote for best post ever since I have been following these threads. No BS, No alchemy just science... Great work

[RichieP]

Morning Ted
Is this the day by day breakdown thing you wanted?

Btw I see 6 winning days and 2 losers. The 17th I had to stop entering horses as there was stuff that came up here and the day as a whole was aborted. BUT bets were put in and that's what is shown

here are the 1st 4 sessions

[RichieP]

the last 4 sessions bring things to today :)

[Ted Craven]

Pretty consistent, Rich - 1 small down day and 1 really down day, but that one was bookended by 2 doozies. This should give you a good sense of consistency.

At any of the tracks, the win unit could have been $20 instead of $2 with no loss of odds. Probably also at least $50 for most of them.

Keep up the good work Rich!

17934

Ted

[BJennet]

This post gets my vote for best post ever since I have been following these threads. No BS, No alchemy just science... Great work

jms62,

Thanks for the positive reponse to my post, but I want to emphasize that this is a work-in-progress, a model rather than something as immutable as the word 'science' implies, and hope that anyone who reads it will regard it in that light. If these numbers continue to hold up that's great, but if not, they need to be corrected. The more constructive criticism we can make of the models we are using will only make them stronger - more accurate, and hopefully profitable. Thanks again.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Day 9 this month of auto template was a wild one for sure. :eek:

Night tracks paid off and the day tracks were dominated by losing value bets.


all in all looks to be a rebate players dream again (breaking even with lots of bets right?)

the races from yesterday in total

FIFTY horses bet

[RichieP]

..:)

[noddub62]

Richie, I'm impressed with what I see but am curious as to an estimate of rebates assuming you had been making $20 bets.

Tell Mrs. Doris Go Yankees! I guess she didn't want to bet with me.

Good wagering but don't neglect your school work sonny boy. :D

Budman

[Ted Craven]

am curious as to an estimate of rebates assuming you had been making $20 bets.


By my estimates, Richie's 50 bets yesterday ($100 total) would have attracted $2.66 in rebates at Premier Turf Club (no Woodbine at PTC, which reduced the average % rebate) - 2.66% average on that mix of tracks. Other ADWs may do better, but not on the major tracks.

$20 x 50 bets = $1000 @ 2.66% = $26.60

Most of these tracks could support at least $50 win pool wagers (PEN?) before affecting payoffs, some much more.

Ted

[noddub62]

Thanks Ted

[BJennet]

Day 9 this month of auto template was a wild one for sure. :eek:

Night tracks paid off and the day tracks were dominated by losing value bets.


all in all looks to be a rebate players dream again (breaking even with lots of bets right?)

the races from yesterday in total

FIFTY horses bet

Hi Richie,

I don't know if you realize this, and I see Ted is kind of pointing you to it, but this rate of bankroll growth is spectacular. Because, in absolute terms, you're betting small amounts it may not strike you, but think of yourself as the average blackjack or poker pro with a 100k bank. In nine days of play, your autopaceline model has made 50% of your bank - 50k - plus rebate. In these situations (which do happen, but are rare, because the edge is much smaller), everybody's popping corks. Your autopaceline model is achieving a 20% ROI - don't forget that William Benter was making 35 million a year with a 28% ROI - throw in the level of rebate you'll be able to get at higher betting totals, and you're just about there.

So, if you have a day like this, where you basically flatline, just ignore it and, like a poker or blackjack player, think in terms of the long run. Blackjack players think of the long run because they know that given variance (luck), anything can happen in the short term, but in the long run, they have the edge. I know a guy, an excellent BJ player, who flatlined not for a day, but for six months a couple of years ago - fortunately he covers all his expenses in advance. In the next month, he made 100k - his EV (expected value) for the year. That's one of the big advantages of making many bets like this, you're getting into the long run more quickly, letting the Law of Large numbers work for you in smoothing out your variance.

Keep it rolling.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Ted Craven]

BJ,

Points well made, re bankroll growth and re Benter and his ROI. Although, before folks get to drooling too much, betting CT, PEN, DED, ZIA Win pools are not where Benter made his millions (Hong Kong exotics).

For that, here, need to find more bets at the major tracks, and eventually in exotic pools.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Updated.

17961
** I seem to be off by $2.00, so like a good bookkeeper, I plugged it...

.

[RichieP]

Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.

There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came.

I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads.

I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months.

Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins :)


Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

Screen shots of yesterdays debacle :eek: and final overall totals for the month

[tfm]

BJ,

Points well made, re bankroll growth and re Benter and his ROI. Although, before folks get to drooling too much, betting CT, PEN, DED, ZIA Win pools are not where Benter made his millions (Hong Kong exotics).

For that, here, need to find more bets at the major tracks, and eventually in exotic pools.

Ted

Addtiionally, the track(s) Benter was playing essentially had the same horses facing each other all year long. Moreover, he had a team working to get him very exact data. A lot easier to win under those conditions.

[BJennet]

Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.

There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came.

I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads.

I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months.

Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins :)


Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

Screen shots of yesterdays debacle :eek: and final overall totals for the month

Richie,

I see you had a bad day, but I still see you with an .11 ROI. Am I just reading this wrong? Its not my place to interfere with anything you're doing, but I am certain of one thing - if you're looking at this as a research project, a sample of 277 races is far too small to have any validity. This doesn't mean that your autopaceline model also couldn't benefit from tweaking, but with this small a sample, the jury is still out. If you start tweaking now, you'll never know the true value of this particular autopaceline method. If you do want to make some changes and start over, try to do a sample of at least 1000 races before drawing any conclusions about the strength of your model. If you're familiar with the poster 'sjk' on the PA site, he told me that his profitable model didn't stabilize until he had a sample of 2,500 races, but hasn't deviated thereafter for the past decade.

There's another page out of Benter's book that also seems worth consideration, and tfm alludes to this in his reference to the homogeneity of the horse population Benter was handicapping - as part of the test of your model (or simply handicapping) make sure that you're playing at tracks you can beat. I'm convinced that both the economics of racing, the decline of interest in the sport, and the growth of whale betting has killed the profit potential of certain tracks. The more races you do, and the more you analyze the data, the more these tracks will reveal themselves, and allow you to eliminate them from play. Any place that could be renamed Chalkdust Downs, and there are a number of them, is not going to be a profitable venue for this kind of autoselection method, or even for normal Sartin handicapping.

Another thought I had is that publicly posting your results by the day may cause stress that you don't need.

Best of luck,

B Jennet

[Ted Craven]

Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!


17979

A few observations - yesterday gave back not the whole month, but only the previous 4 betting sessions: you're back to where you were between days 4 and 5.

On Oct 16 and 26, from betting only 15 races you made $42.50 and $33 profit respectively, more than (and close to) what you lost in this latest day. With respect to what BJennet said in his last post, and the ups and downs you show in these records - with this particular contender and bet selection strategy perhaps this is the volitility you should expect. With only 277 bets, there's no evidence so far to know whether the bankroll growth is still not on an upward trajectory. And with the volitility, you also don't know whether this $42 loss won't be followed by another $42 (or more) profit.

I think it is too soon to say that this particular method is not sound.

It is pretty clear, though (correct me if I'm wrong) that this method exacts a certain emotional toll, what to speak a lot of ball busting work. I don't want to minimize that at all - the emotional inputs to the method are as important as paceline selection, contender elimination and bet strategies. There will be volitility - period. When the bankroll is 5 times what it is now and you can actually bet 1% of it on each race, one day you will lose 10% or 15% of it. Pre-accept that now, and also accept that the day you hit 3 boxcars and increase the bankroll by 33%, a portion of that increase is merely insurance for 3 days later when you will give back half that gain.

If you can take a step back, look at your records, see the direction the exercise is heading (from a birds-eye view) and perhaps see an opportunity to emotionally de-sensitize yourself to the volitility - perhaps this will be as valuable a learning for you as the handicapping part.

Sure, you can also study and refine the selection and betting strategies (3 horses per race sometimes? - no place bets?), but for the pile of work you've done so far this month to have its greatest value, and to prove that it can be done with $20 and $50+ bet units, I hope I can encourage you to give it at least another 10 betting sessions, say 500 bets total.

The minute I can offer you in RDSS a race identification filter and/or a paceline selection strategy, or a bet file upload tool to an ADW conditional wagering queue, I'll get on the phone, amico!

Take a breather, dress up as some Italian guy from Westchester, and play some tricks tonight! Study what you've got here, but double-check to make sure some old-style emotional patterns aren't robbing you of the rewards of your research so far, or of future payoffs.

Tu salute!

Ted

[BJennet]

Addtiionally, the track(s) Benter was playing essentially had the same horses facing each other all year long. Moreover, he had a team working to get him very exact data. A lot easier to win under those conditions.

tfm,

No question the homogeneity of the horse population helped Benter, but his methods are working just as well with the more diverse horse population in this country. I had some dealings with him about five years ago, acting as a liaison with people who were trying to set up Hong Kong style teams here. Some have quit but others are still going strong - one among many reasons the game has become so tough. Despite his 'strong form' information-gathering team, in the end, he had about the same ROI as Tom Brohamer, Dick Mitchell, Dick Schmidt, and other good professionals, which is by far the most significant factor in the long run. The one big edge he had over most horseplayers was that logit modeling, if done correctly, provides an extremely accurate estimate of a horse's true win probability, which allows for optimal Kelly betting.

I enjoy your posts.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[tfm]

Despite his 'strong form' information-gathering team, in the end, he had about the same ROI as Tom Brohamer, Dick Mitchell, Dick Schmidt, and other good professionals, which is by far the most significant factor in the long run.

what is this ROI? how well do the good professionals do?

[jms62]

17979

A few observations - yesterday gave back not the whole month, but only the previous 4 betting sessions: you're back to where you were between days 4 and 5.

On Oct 16 and 26, from betting only 15 races you made $42.50 and $33 profit respectively, more than (and close to) what you lost in this latest day. With respect to what BJennet said in his last post, and the ups and downs you show in these records - with this particular contender and bet selection strategy perhaps this is the volitility you should expect. With only 277 bets, there's no evidence so far to know whether the bankroll growth is still not on an upward trajectory. And with the volitility, you also don't know whether this $42 loss won't be followed by another $42 (or more) profit.

I think it is too soon to say that this particular method is not sound.

It is pretty clear, though (correct me if I'm wrong) that this method exacts a certain emotional toll, what to speak a lot of ball busting work. I don't want to minimize that at all - the emotional inputs to the method are as important as paceline selection, contender elimination and bet strategies. There will be volitility - period. When the bankroll is 5 times what it is now and you can actually bet 1% of it on each race, one day you will lose 10% or 15% of it. Pre-accept that now, and also accept that the day you hit 3 boxcars and increase the bankroll by 33%, a portion of that increase is merely insurance for 3 days later when you will give back half that gain.

If you can take a step back, look at your records, see the direction the exercise is heading (from a birds-eye view) and perhaps see an opportunity to emotionally de-sensitize yourself to the volitility - perhaps this will be as valuable a learning for you as the handicapping part.

Sure, you can also study and refine the selection and betting strategies (3 horses per race sometimes? - no place bets?), but for the pile of work you've done so far this month to have its greatest value, and to prove that it can be done with $20 and $50+ bet units, I hope I can encourage you to give it at least another 10 betting sessions, say 500 bets total.

The minute I can offer you in RDSS a race identification filter and/or a paceline selection strategy, or a bet file upload tool to an ADW conditional wagering queue, I'll get on the phone, amico!

Take a breather, dress up as some Italian guy from Westchester, and play some tricks tonight! Study what you've got here, but double-check to make sure some old-style emotional patterns aren't robbing you of the rewards of your research so far, or of future payoffs.

Tu salute!

Ted

Ted hit it on the nose... This is still very successful and worthy endever.. Friday was nothing more than variance.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Ted

I really feel for Rich .. His heart as always is there . Without an automated way for him to lesson the work load
Psycologically he and most normal people will get beat down testing with $2.00 bets
without that extra zero ant the end of his bets It must be a drag

Am I the only person around here living in a real world

The guy (richie) bust his back doing hour aftre hours of work
He has posted here how it took him like 4 hours to do 15 races
He hit a $50 winner an what was his work worth ?
like $12.00? I can't thank Rich and you enough for the efforts
you make to help us Sartin Methodology users move ahead
into the world of today
However lets never forget what Doc was really about
Believeing in the work and feeling a sense of accomplishment
Asking Richie to do so much work and his reward is the payoff on $ 2.00
bets is in my opinion slave wages

I say lets wait to have some way to lesson his work before we ask him to
test so many races He has shown us it will work ,,, done the correct
way

[tfm]

Thanks Ted

I really feel for Rich .. His heart as always is there . Without an automated way for him to lesson the work load
Psycologically he and most normal people will get beat down testing with $2.00 bets
without that extra zero ant the end of his bets It must be a drag

Am I the only person around here living in a real world

The guy (richie) bust his back doing hour aftre hours of work
He has posted here how it took him like 4 hours to do 15 races
He hit a $50 winner an what was his work worth ?
like $12.00? I can't thank Rich and you enough for the efforts
you make to help us Sartin Methodology users move ahead
into the world of today
However lets never forget what Doc was really about
Believeing in the work and feeling a sense of accomplishment
Asking Richie to do so much work and his reward is the payoff on $ 2.00
bets is in my opinion slave wages

I say lets wait to have some way to lesson his work before we ask him to
test so many races He has shown us it will work ,,, done the correct
way

I think that the amount wagered is not relevant here. If Richie can win with this method betting $20 a pop (or more), then he should be able to win betting $2 units. In fact, growing $2 bets to $20 and beyond, is probably the greatest confidence builder one could have. If he were to be able to do that, he'd know, for sure, that he had an income from playing the horses for as long as he wanted.

Personally, I'd continue until I had, at least, doubled my starting bankroll; and then double my unit and see if I could double my roll again. At that point, I'd have a large enough sample size to confidently bet pretty much whatever I could handle.

[jms62]

I think that the amount wagered is not relevant here. If Richie can win with this method betting $20 a pop (or more), then he should be able to win betting $2 units. In fact, growing $2 bets to $20 and beyond, is probably the greatest confidence builder one could have. If he were to be able to do that, he'd know, for sure, that he had an income from playing the horses for as long as he wanted.

Personally, I'd continue until I had, at least, doubled my starting bankroll; and then double my unit and see if I could double my roll again. At that point, I'd have a large enough sample size to confidently bet pretty much whatever I could handle.

I agree with the fatman Bill.. You are looking at it as the glass is half empty. Richie is hitting 11% ROI after a bad day but is still +30 Bets... Would you think differently if his unit was 100 bucks instead of 2.. In that case he is up 3,000 before rebates. Also Bill no one is "telling" Richie anything.. I think we are all offering him support and positive thoughts here man. He seems down after a bad day and sometimes it is hard to see the bigger picture and the bigger picture is thus far he is a success.

[Bill V.]

The day the music died

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.

There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came.

I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads.

I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months.

Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins


Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

Screen shots of yesterdays debacle and final overall totals for the month


I know you guys are right. I know Ted is brilliant and I know I should shut up
but I know my friend best

and I don't want to see him discouraged

Unfortunatly there is no Doctor Sartin to speak
to us about a "bad head"

[BJennet]

what is this ROI? how well do the good professionals do?

tfm,

You seem like a sharp guy, and I thought you might be a pro, so I thought this question might be a put-on. But if not, ROI is return-on-investment, or some might just call it your edge. As you suggest the issue of ROI and the definition of a professional gambler are two separate things. I guess you could describe a pro as anyone who derives all or the largest part of their income from gambling. In a sense, it doesn't matter how high your ROI is, but obviously it must exist. I've mentioned Ernie Dahlman, a horseplayer who makes in the neigborhood of $750k with a 3% ROI + rebates. The average blackjack pro has only a 1% ROI, but this doesn't stop a number from making low six figures. Re the names of horseplayers I mentioned, all were Sartin players (even Mitchell used the figures) who averaged in the area of 25-30%, and were professionals for a number of years. I've known other talented players in this same general zone, and as I said, Benter's ROI performance has been documented in the same range. So when I said 'good' this is my own estimate of what is possibly the high range of professional play. Certainly, it's not easy to achieve. But obviously, it's possible to make excellent money with a lower ROI, and this was my main point for Richie. His performance so far is still very good, well within the range of profitable play, and that he has no reason to be discouraged.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

I know you guys are right. I know Ted is brilliant and I know I should shut up
but I know my friend best

and I don't want to see him discouraged

Unfortunatly there is no Doctor Sartin to speak
to us about a "bad head"

Hi Bill,

I don't post here that often, but that doesn't mean I and the others who post here, don't appreciate the work that you and Richie have done on this site, and that includes this project of his. I agree with you that Richie should not continue with this if it's going to make his life more stressful. And I gather that he has a number of much higher priorities in his life. But the point of some of my posts, which is also made by Ted and others, is that even if he takes a break now, he should not abandon the results of this research because he thinks it's not successful, because, from any rational point of view, it has been successful. Possibly he can pick it up at a later point, when he's more rested, or simply wait until Ted has finished his software update, which would greatly cut down on his labor. Of course, it's all up to Richie. And I think when we read your posts, we realize Richie is lucky to have a friend like you.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[tfm]

tfm,

You seem like a sharp guy, and I thought you might be a pro, so I thought this question might be a put-on. But if not, ROI is return-on-investment, or some might just call it your edge. As you suggest the issue of ROI and the definition of a professional gambler are two separate things. I guess you could describe a pro as anyone who derives all or the largest part of their income from gambling. In a sense, it doesn't matter how high your ROI is, but obviously it must exist. I've mentioned Ernie Dahlman, a horseplayer who makes in the neigborhood of $750k with a 3% ROI + rebates. The average blackjack pro has only a 1% ROI, but this doesn't stop a number from making low six figures. Re the names of horseplayers I mentioned, all were Sartin players (even Mitchell used the figures) who averaged in the area of 25-30%, and were professionals for a number of years. I've known other talented players in this same general zone, and as I said, Benter's ROI performance has been documented in the same range. So when I said 'good' this is my own estimate of what is possibly the high range of professional play. Certainly, it's not easy to achieve. But obviously, it's possible to make excellent money with a lower ROI, and this was my main point for Richie. His performance so far is still very good, well within the range of profitable play, and that he has no reason to be discouraged.

Cheers,

B Jennet

I was merely inquiring what the ROI was of the players you mentioned.

[JimG]

Richie,

After a bad day, it is human nature to want to tweak or quit what you are doing. Ask me how I know...LOL

I know nothing of your method, but did look at the results Ted posted and would strongly encouage you to keep it up. Getting in the hole and catching a $20 horse now and again sounds like you may be onto something good (I mean that!!). If winning on 4-1 shots and less were the way to go there would be a bunch of idiots at your local otb's winning instead of asking YOU whodoyalike?

Jim

[RichieP]

Thank you everyone for their feedback. It is greatly appreciated and I HAVE learned from the replies so that is a great bonus.

I have stopped the "do all of them or do none of them" theme I was using for NOW. Hopefully Ted's template will let me resume this testing at a greatly reduced workload.

It would also allow testing my template on other race types beside the layout I showed here.

The result attached here shows a huge winner I had ranked TIED for third on Bl/Bl 2 nights ago at the Mountain. Problem is the race type is DIFFERENT from the ones I had been exclusively looking at and betting (check the race conditions and compare to what I laid out earlier and you will see what I mean ok?)

For clarity I did not bet the horse (nor any horses for that matter).

THIS type of stuff/exploration is what I am hoping the auto paceline template will be able to deliver at a greatly reduced mental/physical workload.


I had a great talk with both Bill and Ted yesterday and that's always nice!:)

I am now looking into results for the month from a couple of different angles. I am also reminded of a key word needed for success especially in todays racing environment:

Patience
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEzuC5UoM8g&feature=fvst

Again thanks everyone for the feedback/suggestions and the very best of luck/skill at the windows :D

For your listening pleasure!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU0b_LlOpXI&feature=PlayList&p=693D6CE8925EF941&index=5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpww0IoSQ0M&feature=PlayList&p=693D6CE8925EF941&index=3

[RichieP]

The opposite of all this "auto" stuff is the quote attached here by Barry Burkan in his article "Finding Logical Longshots" found in Followup #4 in the new library.

**Sidebar**
Pirco Charter member Bob Cochran has penned an article in Followup #6 called:
"Take Responsibility" that imo is a must read for everyone(are you listening RichieP?) Thanks Bob! :)

Here is Mr. Burkan's quote from his piece

[Ted Craven]

Here is that article by Bob Cochran from Follow Up Issue #6

Take Responsibility for Yourself (http://www.SartinMethodology.com/library/Miscellaneous_Articles/Take_Responsibility_for_Yourself_by_Bob_Cochran.pdf)

Excerpt:

18003

Article continues...

(http://%5BURL)

[gl45]

Pizzi,
Add this to your template....who knows.......
Only MNR and only the following classes:

C5000
C5000NW26M
C5000NW16M
C5000NW3Y
C5000NW2Y
C5000NW1Y
C5000NW4L
C5000NW3L
C5000NW2L

The spreadsheet reppresent the results of win and place since 10/3/2008 at 5.5f, 6f, 8f for the angle "A"

[gl45]

Pizzi,
btw, I forgot to tell you that last night at MNR the winner of race #1 was an "A" with "FDK", Form Darkening plus other goodies....let me get out of here b4 I get yelled by Ted

-----------
Pino: no question of yelling at anyone - I want to try to keep Topics in the RDSS Forum on a coherent theme. I moved several posts related to Angles to this new Topic in the Handicapping Forum: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6275

You are welcomed to start a Topic in the RDSS Forum on Angles if it relates to RDSS.

Ted

[BJennet]

Thank you everyone for their feedback. It is greatly appreciated and I HAVE learned from the replies so that is a great bonus.

I have stopped the "do all of them or do none of them" theme I was using for NOW. Hopefully Ted's template will let me resume this testing at a greatly reduced workload.

It would also allow testing my template on other race types beside the layout I showed here.

The result attached here shows a huge winner I had ranked TIED for third on Bl/Bl 2 nights ago at the Mountain. Problem is the race type is DIFFERENT from the ones I had been exclusively looking at and betting (check the race conditions and compare to what I laid out earlier and you will see what I mean ok?)




For clarity I did not bet the horse (nor any horses for that matter).

THIS type of stuff/exploration is what I am hoping the auto paceline template will be able to deliver at a greatly reduced mental/physical workload.


I had a great talk with both Bill and Ted yesterday and that's always nice!:)

I am now looking into results for the month from a couple of different angles. I am also reminded of a key word needed for success especially in todays racing environment:

Patience
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEzuC5UoM8g&feature=fvst

Again thanks everyone for the feedback/suggestions and the very best of luck/skill at the windows :D

For your listening pleasure!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU0b_LlOpXI&feature=PlayList&p=693D6CE8925EF941&index=5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpww0IoSQ0M&feature=PlayList&p=693D6CE8925EF941&index=3

Hi Richie,

Glad to see you're returning to action on a more low-fi level. Sounds like a good plan. It's onlly a matter of time now. Best of luck.

PS - thanks for Satch & Ella, two of the greats. If you get a chance, some time check out 'West End Blues' - Satch and Fatha Hines at their best, imho.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[mildeu]

.
Post moved to 'Angles' Topic in Handicapping Forum: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=6275

.

[rmath]

As I was reading this post about PSS - automated paceline selection process,
I wondered what would happen if say 50-100 people used the same horses at
9/2 odds, 0 mtp. would all that money being bet at post drive down the odds
and eliminate any chance for success, especially with only a 5% roi?
Just a thought.
rmath

[Profiler8]

Hi rmath,

if more and more people have access to the same information the odds are dropping. A software can pick pacelines for you, but you must decide, if you bet or not. You must decide, if you accept the paceline or not. An automatic paceline selection is a good process to begin the handicapping process.
The selection process could not be automatic. You decide, if the horse is a contender or not.
If 100 people use the same line, it does not say, that all people bet the horse. If so, then I bet a other horse with value or no horse.

In some cases the odds will drop, most at smaller tracks, but I think, that most of the people do not bet with RDSS, because they make racing for fun and not for profit. Clearly when everybody of us bets $100 on these selections at smaller tracks then there are many odds on favorites on clear selections.

But if all people bet the horse, then you have overlays on the other horses. ;-)
Value is everything in racing.

That is now enough with the ifs....

Greetings
Tim

[rmath]

Tim,
I agree with you completely.
What I was implying was what if 50-100 rdss users all bet online
at the same time , o mtp.
Thanks for the reply
rmath

[Profiler8]

Hi,

that is bad scenario, but possible. ;-)
I bet through MagnaBet in Europe (YouBet in the USA). The money goes direct into the pools of the racetracks.
It happened, that I bet a 5/1 shot 0 minutes before the off. But then the payout was only 3/1. You often see that at small tracks, that the post time odds are different with the off odds, because of the small pools. A lot of money goes to the pools, when the race starts. I think this is with other legal internet racebooks as well. They have a direct connection to the tote at the track. When 100 bets come at one time, proably the server has some problems. Seldom, I got an error message just before the off, but it happened. ;-)
Sometimes I bet with Betfair, they offer tote betting and exchange betting. On the exchanges, the money is in a other pool.

I hope that helps... :-)

Greetings
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Richard, Tim,

I've been spending a lot of time the past weeks working on the PSS module, and Tim I think you have stated the crux of the 'automation' issue: indeed using the same 'canned' PSS rules, everyone will pick the same paceline, but there can still be a lot of decision making interpreting readouts based on those lines. The line may be 60+days old - do you use it; the line may be from a different surface than today - do you use it; the line may have been against inferior competition; may have been against a slower or faster pace than today; the horse may have won its past 2 races and never won 3 in a row before - do you use any paceline; etc, etc

These are judgements re the 'quality' of paceline you can program in but 50 or 100 people may not be able to bear accepting a program's judgement (probably even if the results prove otherwise); thus they may tweak some of those judgements, if that proves possible, then everyone is no longer in synch.

Then you have to categorize contenders versus non-contenders. And depending on your preference for betting pools, your non-contenders for Win may still be contenders for in-the-money.

Some people's emotional comfort zone may prompt them to bet 2 horses (or dutch 3 horses for Win), while others are comfortable betting 1 horse to Win, so the money available for the Win Pool will be diluted between different horses. Sometimes the difference between, say, the top 3 BL ranked horses is either hard to tell or immaterial, and a wagercapping approach calls for betting 2 of the top 3 depending on rank and overlay odds at bet-time. If you use the same conditional wager taking ADW and bet at 0 MTP, some will set their minimum odds at one level and others at a different level, or the dutch net-odds of mutliple horses at different levels (depending on whether your ADW offers that). Thus, yet more dilution away from all betting the same horse.

And - those users outside of the US may choose to bet through an exchange like Betfair, where my experience so far is that odds in the range of less than, say, 5-1 can vary from North American pari-mutuel pools by from .5 to 1 whole odds point (usually to the better, due to lower commission rates). So that percentage of the 50 - 100 users won't impact co-mingled pools.

Plus, some percentage of folks will never need to or be comfortable betting more than low to mid-double digit bets. Etc, etc.

It's not unreasonable to think that at some smaller tracks, the odds may be impacted if enough folks gang up, but I wonder if there's not a lot longer way to go yet before that becomes a fear.

RDSS will never be a complete black-box - I don't think I know how to do that! It will become a strong 'betting practice management tool', doing a much larger proportion of the supporting grunt work and record keeping than presently. But I think quality decision making should remain the final human key to success to any serious degree, and for some time to come.

Just my 2 cents.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Here's another interesting notion related to many people betting in synch, overloading a few horses in the betting pools:

Consider the role of what in financial markets is called 'market maker' - a trader or party whose job it is take the opposite side of some trades to provide liquidity in the market and facilitate trading. Betfair has these in many of its sports markets (not sure about horse racing markets).

What if one role of a certain type of 'whale' operation is to play 'market maker' in selected parimutuel markets. In the Win Pool for example, from studying the RDSS Tote browser output, though picking the winner may be sometimes a cat and mouse game, and Ernie (Silentrun) has been studying whether he can get the Tri or Super in the top 4 Win Odds and Tote Xray ranks - I am thinking I at least know how to find say 2 or 3 horses in almost every race of a certain field size, whose share of the Win Pool adds up to about 20% (i.e. more than the takeout %), who I absolutely know will not win the race.

If at 0 MTP, I conditionally dutch all the rest of the horses to seek a bit better than breakeven - I am in effect playing the role of 'market maker' and adding more liquidity into that pool equally on perhaps up to 75% of the field. On this money I get a rebate of 7-10% for my risk, plus whatever few points of ROI I may get from the many-horse dutch bet. The result: the pools go up, targeted bets on specific horses to win have a bigger size pool to swim in, and thus affect odds on other horses less than in a smaller pool.

Of course this is much easier to do in a betting exchange environment where you can easily bet against (lay) horses you believe can't win - but that doesn't help pari-mutuel markets where most of us bet.

To you 'whales' out there: is this a real-world scenario?

Ted

[rmath]

Ted:
Thanks for the reply. My comments were not intended to say I was not in favor
of PSS . They were only my worse case senario.
rmath