Bill Lyster
10-27-2009, 01:47 PM
For those interested, I have kept a profile of winning performances from Santa Anita (Oaktree) since the start of the current meet. It is sorted by distance and shows date-race-distance-surface-race class and calls and lengths back of all winners. I will update and post it after next weekends' races.
I only entered races equivalent to beginning allowance and up. I added last year's BC races, thanks to Ted C, to help determine if the profile was consistent or whether top class horses had a different profile. (Mostly not, although the Euros (marked with an E) tend to win from farther back than the model suggests.
I have had pretty good success correlating the SEGMENTS screen to the model values for 2C. also many of the distances require winners to be really close at the stretch call. For instance in sprints, the longer the sprint the winners are closer at the stretch call. See that six furlong sprints seem to be won by what Richie calls 'Martians' (at least at the first call) Most of the 10f+ races on dirt? or turf have winners in top half of field and closing at mile mark. The marathon pts of call working back from finish are finish-stretch-mile-6 F (the charts provided more info than RDSS can handle in this case)
Good luck at the BC!
I only entered races equivalent to beginning allowance and up. I added last year's BC races, thanks to Ted C, to help determine if the profile was consistent or whether top class horses had a different profile. (Mostly not, although the Euros (marked with an E) tend to win from farther back than the model suggests.
I have had pretty good success correlating the SEGMENTS screen to the model values for 2C. also many of the distances require winners to be really close at the stretch call. For instance in sprints, the longer the sprint the winners are closer at the stretch call. See that six furlong sprints seem to be won by what Richie calls 'Martians' (at least at the first call) Most of the 10f+ races on dirt? or turf have winners in top half of field and closing at mile mark. The marathon pts of call working back from finish are finish-stretch-mile-6 F (the charts provided more info than RDSS can handle in this case)
Good luck at the BC!