projecting pace

[mikesal57]

To me projecting the pace is the most important factor in handicapping
It can eliminate almost as much as 75% of the field in some cases

Going back on past post in the Hat Check forum, I've come to this and similar posts by The Hat and Richie were they project the pace of race.
Just like in his books , this race has me baffled on why and how he chooses the pace and from what lines in the PP's he uses. Its not from the same track as today..its not from the same distance as today ..and its not from the same horses as todays...its not from the last line..times are from different horses



Just think about this...even using software..you have a 10 horse field...u have 9 horses that have current pacelines that can be used based on your criterias, best of last 3 -in the money finishes-etc, we all know that entering that many horses will cause problems...wouldnt it be nice to dwindle these down to that goal of 3-4-5 horses?

Can u explain why?

thxs

mike

race #6 from Belmont

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1567

[mikesal57]

also note:

This race is in Sept at Belmont

the first 2 calls are from the #7 which was run at Calder in May(4 months earlier)

Listen -this is a typical race run in New York or any other big track were horses come from all over the country with various races from distance switches, track surfaces , layoffs etc..

This is a matches nightmare race( I believe) , if somehow I can get some sort of a handle on this...everything else would be easier...hopefully

mike

[justin13892002]

Mike,

I believe it is because it was the fastest pace the 7 has been able to "set" in his pp's??

Maybe?

lol

[mikesal57]

Mike,

I believe it is because it was the fastest pace the 7 has been able to "set" in his pp's??

Maybe?

lol

but why the 7...why pick a route from May and today is a sprint

[justin13892002]

Mike,

By the way it looks, the 7 NEEDS the lead, and will do whatever to get it. You can't select a TURF line for the pace. It only leaves a few Dirt Lines to choose from. The 7 "SET" the Fastest pace out of all his lines in that dirt mile at Calder. I believe that race went 4 furlongs in 45, and the other races in the PP's, the horse set a 46 or 47 pace??

[mikesal57]

maybe I shouldn't say this but I will...

its been over a year since I went the course of learning the match-up
and now I don't think I'm any better than say 4-6-8 months ago..
I just read book 2 and its just added more wood to the fire..
Part 1 in the book you have matching the "key" race to other horses.The key race being the horse that ran closest to the fastest paced race...
Part 2 you have the "projected pace" chapter using early horses..
The Hat Check forum you have posts teaching using positions only...
This post has beaten lengths in the picture..
You have using recent races for pacelines...
You have the section on matching "Power Lines" which can be anywhere in the PP's for pacelines..

Maybe I'm frustrated or upset that this 2 months off would get me somehow ahead..but I'm not!!
they say there are "no rules" what I see is "no uniformity"

Sorry if I offended anyone..I just had to vent

is there any one out there that are 100% matchers ??

mike

[tom]

Hardly a 100% matcher, but a thing I do I picked up from Pizzola and Bert Mayne at a seminar in Albany one cold winter!

Look at the first and second calls for every horse and circle every 1.
2 by hd is not a 1. Not time limits, no distance, no surface concerns. Just 1's.
Then, go back and circle the times for each circled 1.
Now, list the 1c and 2c times, in order in the margin of the PPs ( we used the DRF back in the day!)

Example - 22.0, 22.1, 22.1 22.2,22.2, 22.4, 24.1
Example - 45.1, 45.1, 45.1, 45.2, 45.3, 46.2, 46.4

I'm now looking at POR lines of about 22.1 45.2 give or take a fifth. I do the +,O,X form cycle on those lines to get a feel for the race, before I go any of my programs.

I tried doing this with BRIS pace figures - and got nowhere. Raw was better.

[mikesal57]

Tom

Great start...from the post I started ...I got a idea of something like that to try..you confirmed it..

Now we have a pace of 22.1 45.2

next ..

look at horse #1.. line -1 do u eliminate the horse if the FRACTIONS ONLY are slower than our pace projection or do u go down the line and see if there is a line where the horse ran in the money at that pace and list him as a contender...How far should/can u go down?

do this for each horse till u got your contenders

I'm trying to avoid software , how would u match whats left

mike

[shoeless]

Mike, If you havent done so already on one of the seminar tapes that was done in Las Vegas Gary Owens gives a good presentation of this.I believe Tom was at another seminar that Gary was at so he could probably explain it.


SIDE NOTE:PLEASE DONT GIVE BILL A HARD TIME ABOUT ME POSTING THIS AS HE HAS ALREADY ASKED ME NOT TO POST BUT IM JUST TRYING TO BE HELPFUL HERE.

[mikesal57]

Jeff...I see no harm in this...I will check it out..thanks
i think my post was more damaging...:rolleyes:

[Bill V.]

Excellent honest feelings

We are here to help so vent away
We all get fustrated I am not 100% percent
but I feel for you

Mike, Mr Bradshaw told me that almost everybody he teaches the match up
to has some success but hardly anybody can do it.

from what I have seen you are one of the few who can do it

I would suggest do lots of practice
maybe do 20, 6 furlong races
Then do 20, 7 furlong races working your way up in distance
Maybe you are making a lemon pie but your using
cherrys

Tom I really like that advice about circles around the 1 and 2
position/time horses

thanks
Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff
I didn't tell you not to post I asked you not to post
That was real nice advice for Mike
thank you for adding your thoughts

Bill

[BJennet]

maybe I shouldn't say this but I will...

its been over a year since I went the course of learning the match-up
and now I don't think I'm any better than say 4-6-8 months ago..
I just read book 2 and its just added more wood to the fire..
Part 1 in the book you have matching the "key" race to other horses.The key race being the horse that ran closest to the fastest paced race...
Part 2 you have the "projected pace" chapter using early horses..
The Hat Check forum you have posts teaching using positions only...
This post has beaten lengths in the picture..
You have using recent races for pacelines...
You have the section on matching "Power Lines" which can be anywhere in the PP's for pacelines..

Maybe I'm frustrated or upset that this 2 months off would get me somehow ahead..but I'm not!!
they say there are "no rules" what I see is "no uniformity"

Sorry if I offended anyone..I just had to vent

is there any one out there that are 100% matchers ??

mike

Hi Mike,

I'm not a matcher and wouldn't normally post here, but your frustration reminded me of a Follow Up I read recently. In one of the 'late-period' FUs, Doc Sartin says that he was never able to learn the MU, despite years of working alongside Jim Bradshaw, and that he never came across anyone who could really use it effectively except Jim himself. Sartin also talks about coming to believe that the kind of reliance on the 'visual' that the MU requires is inherently deceptive.

Let me caveat this by saying, my knowledge of the MU is very limited, and that I would be interested in seeing some feedback on this subject from successful matchers.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[tfm]

Hi Mike,

Doc Sartin says that he was never able to learn the MU, despite years of working alongside Jim Bradshaw, and that he never came across anyone who could really use it effectively except Jim himself. Sartin also talks about coming to believe that the kind of reliance on the 'visual' that the MU requires is inherently deceptive.

I'm neither a follower of Sartin or Bradshaw. But I've read enough on this forum, and corresponded enough with Richie, to realize, obviously, that what set Bradshaw apart was that he was a SUPERIOR race watcher. I don't just mean that he could watch a race more closely than others and see trouble, and that sort of thing, but that he had a very good understanding of SETUPS. In other words, how a race was shaping up and how a move by a given horse fit, negatively or positively, within the context of that race. One can have a numeric understanding of SETUPS (/PACE) or an INTUITIVE one. Bradshaw was a master of the latter (IMO) and he saw things that others couldn't (even if he pointed them out).

JMO

[shoeless]

Mike, It's in the 92 seminar tape and it's not too far after Doc introduces everybody.Owens does a good job of explaining it in simple terms and does say he got the idea after watching Hat at the racebook.

[shoeless]

Mike, I dont understand something these programs have the match up already in it so why would you want to avoid using them.It seems to me it would be less of a headache then to do it without them.

[mikesal57]

Thank you Jeff and the rest of you guys...

I thought that this would be my calling a year ago when I first read about The Match-Up...Richie made it look sooo easy that anybody can do it..but reality hit me and said hold on buddy your not gonna get it that easy..you gotta work a little harder...I know that JB was in a class of his own and it took him many years to perfect it, so who am I to say that I can do it in a year....
From the guys responding here it seems that they know of it but dont use it fully in their handicapping ..

I always wonder if there are any true matchers out there ...

thxs

mike

[mikesal57]

Mike, I dont understand something these programs have the match up already in it so why would you want to avoid using them.It seems to me it would be less of a headache then to do it without them.

Jeff, I believe it doesnt ...most programs are designed using final times, speed ratings, or someones home grown numbers...
Tell me can a program see 3 matching earlies and figure that they'll submit each other to the back of the pack....but maybe one of them has that big speed rating that will put it still at the top of the rankings??

mike

[mikesal57]

Excellent honest feelings

We are here to help so vent away
We all get fustrated I am not 100% percent
but I feel for you

Mike, Mr Bradshaw told me that almost everybody he teaches the match up
to has some success but hardly anybody can do it.

from what I have seen you are one of the few who can do it

I would suggest do lots of practice
maybe do 20, 6 furlong races
Then do 20, 7 furlong races working your way up in distance
Maybe you are making a lemon pie but your using
cherrys

Tom I really like that advice about circles around the 1 and 2
position/time horses

thanks
Good Skill
Bill

Bill ...I hear you...if you recall (and I know Richie knows this) I had a lot better success before sticking with 6 fur races for my match-up ...I thought that I could expand but as you can see it lead me here ...:o

back to basics

mike

[mikesal57]

Hi Mike,

I'm not a matcher and wouldn't normally post here, but your frustration reminded me of a Follow Up I read recently. In one of the 'late-period' FUs, Doc Sartin says that he was never able to learn the MU, despite years of working alongside Jim Bradshaw, and that he never came across anyone who could really use it effectively except Jim himself. Sartin also talks about coming to believe that the kind of reliance on the 'visual' that the MU requires is inherently deceptive.

Let me caveat this by saying, my knowledge of the MU is very limited, and that I would be interested in seeing some feedback on this subject from successful matchers.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Thxs BJ for this...now I dont feel like a complete idiot....lol
Yes...I would like for these matcher to surface too...think about it...this is probably the only & last place anyone is going to hear about The Hat and his legacy..whats going to happen if we give up on it


mike

[Bill V.]

Mike I have to agree with Jeff

The effort of every Sartin program was to do what
Mr. Bradshaw could do in his head

the stuff is built in ..

In almost every seminar tape that Mr Brashaw spoke on
he mentions how he tells clients to use the computer programs

From Doc himself .. the day I left to go visit Jim
"listen to what Jimmy teaches you about contenders and line selection.
Then enter your lines and use the Bottom Line Betting Line
It has the match up built in"

Mr Bradshaw called Doc and spoke to him on the phone when I was at
Jim's house . Jim told me Doc said make sure Bill uses his computer

I believe them when they say the match up is in the readouts

Bill

[mikesal57]

thxs Bill...he must have been an amazing guy to be around

[speedhorse]

Hi, this is my first post. This is in connection with the 5 step approach of Mr. Bradshaw. I would like to ask anyone from this forum what final time will I project for the example below: Distance 6 furlongs at SA

Horse A = 22.6 45.6 1:10.6

Horse B = 22.4 45.8 1:10.8

What would you say will be the projected pace/final time for this race where all the other entrants will be measured and eliminated? This is to understand fully what Mr. Bradshaw says when using a final time that matches the projected pace.

[mikesal57]

ok speed..we'll try..

question are horses a & b speed horses...wire to wire..?

to project a pace you need to know WHO was leading at the 1st call and 2nd call

mike

[justin13892002]

Mike,

I am a 100% Matcher. Have been trying hard to get it since Jim and Richie were posting way back when. Ever since learning the Match-Up, my win % had def. gone up. It lets you get rid of non-contenders you would normally keep in by traditional handicapping. I have recently taken it a bit further, and through doing some of my own research, I have found a nice way to help figure some horses out, and get rid of non-contenders, but Jim was just the best of the best.

The match-up is different and should be looked at differently from all aspects. Don't read what Jim wrote years back, but really think about what he is writing. Read between the lines of what he is saying.

For example, when Jim wrote that 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races are over so quick its hard for a horse to recover from any trouble. Think about that! He is basically saying, the pace will usually win sprints, atleast thats what I get out of it.

I would really suggest anybody intersted in learning the Match-Up, to not use positioning. I believe thats for running styles only. Beaten Lengths is for the actual "Match-up" of pace-lines, and how a horse responds.


Just an opinion.

[mikesal57]

Funny..

After the drama I had this morning I capped the last 2 races at Penn Natl
both 6 furs...

I got beat by a 15-1 horses in the 8th..my horse was 6-1

and in the 9th...my 10-1 got beat by another 10-1 shot which was a 0 for 44 -6 year old

both times.. just at the wire...

So in conclusion...going back to basics and the win/place bet that I succeeded with before is best for me

thxs to all my friends for your help

But I still want to find those successful matchers!!

mike

[mikesal57]

Mike,

I am a 100% Matcher. Have been trying hard to get it since Jim and Richie were posting way back when. Ever since learning the Match-Up, my win % had def. gone up. It lets you get rid of non-contenders you would normally keep in by traditional handicapping. I have recently taken it a bit further, and through doing some of my own research, I have found a nice way to help figure some horses out, and get rid of non-contenders, but Jim was just the best of the best.

The match-up is different and should be looked at differently from all aspects. Don't read what Jim wrote years back, but really think about what he is writing. Read between the lines of what he is saying.

For example, when Jim wrote that 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races are over so quick its hard for a horse to recover from any trouble. Think about that! He is basically saying, the pace will usually win sprints, atleast thats what I get out of it.

I would really suggest anybody intersted in learning the Match-Up, to not use positioning. I believe thats for running styles only. Beaten Lengths is for the actual "Match-up" of pace-lines, and how a horse responds.


Just an opinion.

Hey we got one...lets reel him in...

thxs justin for your post

If you can tell me/us by how u get rid of non-contenders and what your research has given you would be very helpful...

thxs

mike

[shoeless]

Mike, What I said about the match up being already in the programs is what I read in the FU'S.I see you use RDSS and I would guess that the match up is incorporated in that program,Ted Im sure would be able to explain this.I know that the older programs had it as well according to Doc.Anyway best of luck to you in getting what your looking for.

[mikesal57]

Mike, What I said about the match up being already in the programs is what I read in the FU'S.I see you use RDSS and I would guess that the match up is incorporated in that program,Ted Im sure would be able to explain this.I know that the older programs had it as well according to Doc.Anyway best of luck to you in getting what your looking for.

Jeff..I do use RDSS , but I want to do without it...but i guess my brain isn't up to par :mad:


mike

[justin13892002]

Hey we got one...lets reel him in...

thxs justin for your post

If you can tell me/us by how u get rid of non-contenders and what your research has given you would be very helpful...

thxs

mike


Mike,

What I Personally do to narrow the race down to 3 or 4 horses is find a race in the pp's closest to tdays distance/surface, and shows the horses usual running style.

Write down the 2nd call, and 3rd call times, usually are the 4 and 6 furlong times. Then right down how mahy lengths the horse gained/lost between 2nd call and finish.

It shows how the horse handled a certain pace similar to todays standards. You should then be able to narrow the field down rather easily to 3 or 4 horses.

You can post up PP's, and I can show you my method which is derived from Jims Match-Up.

Usually, once narrowed to 3 or 4 horses, I will personally match the horses up just as Jim did, just as the best I can. As far as contenders go, its actually very easily done, and is usually fairly consistent!

[speedhorse]

Mike, in my example they are both leading wire to wire in their respective races. My question is which final time am I going to use for projected pace, is it Horse A with the fastest 1st call fraction or Horse B with the fastest 2nd call fraction? This is the area where I'm at a lost.

[mikesal57]

Mike,

What I Personally do to narrow the race down to 3 or 4 horses is find a race in the pp's closest to tdays distance/surface, and shows the horses usual running style.

Write down the 2nd call, and 3rd call times, usually are the 4 and 6 furlong times. Then right down how mahy lengths the horse gained/lost between 2nd call and finish.

It shows how the horse handled a certain pace similar to todays standards. You should then be able to narrow the field down rather easily to 3 or 4 horses.

You can post up PP's, and I can show you my method which is derived from Jims Match-Up.

Usually, once narrowed to 3 or 4 horses, I will personally match the horses up just as Jim did, just as the best I can. As far as contenders go, its actually very easily done, and is usually fairly consistent!

Justin..got one up there alraedy for you tonite!!

[mikesal57]

Mike, in my example they are both leading wire to wire in their respective races. My question is which final time am I going to use for projected pace, is it Horse A with the fastest 1st call fraction or Horse B with the fastest 2nd call fraction? This is the area where I'm at a lost.

Speed....look at first fraction..whos in lead...

Horse B...correct....

now how can A wire them now....race over throw out A

unless horse A can show in his PP that he can win from postion#2...then its another story :)

got it?

mike

[gl45]

"Jim Bradshaw just intuited the correct line because he knew what was going to happen during the running of the race."
So, if you can't intuitively know how the race is going to unfold, you might well forget how to learn the MU.
Positions, lengths, fastest 2c, fastest final time etc....etc.... every poster here has a different way of using the MU. There is only one way and it's the Hat way, and it is also pretty simple, "..fastest horse win races...".
I did try the MU, understood the concept, did a few races with the Hat, but when I was left by myself to use the MU, I could only go as far as 75% of my capping, after that I needed a bottle of Advil.

[gl45]

The qoute was taken from PA forum thread Pace Line Algorithm

[mikesal57]

"Jim Bradshaw just intuited the correct line because he knew what was going to happen during the running of the race."
So, if you can't intuitively know how the race is going to unfold, you might well forget how to learn the MU.
Positions, lengths, fastest 2c, fastest final time etc....etc.... every poster here has a different way of using the MU. There is only one way and it's the Hat way, and it is also pretty simple, "..fastest horse win races...".
I did try the MU, understood the concept, did a few races with the Hat, but when I was left by myself to use the MU, I could only go as far as 75% of my capping, after that I needed a bottle of Advil.

:) nice one Pino

See what I mean...we have all tried but just some piece of it we use for our own purpose ...

Who does it 100% and makes a living off of it???

[tom]

Mike, If you havent done so already on one of the seminar tapes that was done in Las Vegas Gary Owens gives a good presentation of this.I believe Tom was at another seminar that Gary was at so he could probably explain it.


SIDE NOTE:PLEASE DONT GIVE BILL A HARD TIME ABOUT ME POSTING THIS AS HE HAS ALREADY ASKED ME NOT TO POST BUT IM JUST TRYING TO BE HELPFUL HERE.

Yes, Ace the Pace.....excellent presentation at Albany. I may have it on cassette - if I can find it, I will somehow get it digitized to share. I should have the manual, too. If I can just remember what year it was...

[mikesal57]

thxs Tom ..that will be fantastic

and that tip on pace projection... was very helpful..appreciated it


mike

[Charlie D]

Bill ...I hear you...if you recall (and I know Richie knows this) I had a lot better success before sticking with 6 fur races for my match-up ...I thought that I could expand but as you can see it lead me here ...:o

back to basics

mike


Back to 6f races and stay there. You don't need to expand, you need to build up your bank so you can increase stakes in these races.

[Charlie D]

Quiet, no distractions whatsoever and listen to the teachers RichieP http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4442 and The Hat, Las Vegas Seminar 1191 Tape 9_2, Tape 9_3 Then listen again a day or two later, then again a day or two later.

[mikesal57]

thxs Charlie...will do...good to see ya back:)