Hollywood 5Th 12/19

[mikesal57]

Here we go again...
Post Time around 5:30 EDT

Justin is at an event today and I will try to get in between snowflakes

If we cant , please take charge...

Listen...Dont be afraid to voice your opinion...I , for sure. know that some of my picks are still running from last week...:confused:

This is not just for matchers...use what ever you wish and JUST POST!!
Put thoses screen shots up....preferably a nice blonde :D
Break the ice man and join in


mike

[barb craven]

Mike
I have my screen shots from Penn 's races yesterday. I can't get them over here. Ted is away and Rich is busy. They've both shown me, but I can't for the life of me keep it in my head. I'll have to write it down.

Meanwhile here's what I got.

I had 10 on top in your race 5 yesterday, but hid it because of low odds. I won race 6 #9 for $11.80, and race 8 #11 for $18.00.

I like Penn, as I said before, for me the later races are better. and I do better at non-maiden claiming routes.

I'm looking at TP too because it's poly like Woodbine, but am not comfortable with it yet.

I'll look at your Hollywood race 5 this afternoon and am going to look at some Fairgrounds. Honestly, I will put some up after the fact when I get it into my head how to go about. I can't believe I'm so dense about this.

[Bill V.]

Hi Mike

I'm with Barb on your Penn race
I hid the 10 and went to the 7 and 9

I did well at TP after a good day working the Philly
card from the trackside racebook at Del Mar
18528
Did I mention its going to be 70 and sunny today :)

[barb craven]

Don't rub it in Bill. It's only about 5 here. At least we aren't going to get that snowstorm.

I'm only kidding, I'm glad you're enjoying your new life.

[mikesal57]

Hey guys...its good to hear your winning ..keep us posted

Barb...please write it down!!


Bill...I hate you!!
I just tried to start up the snowblower and I got gas all over me :(


mike

[barb craven]

I will, I promise Mike.

[mikesal57]

A little time for me now...but i hate doing this before scratches are announced..

but here goes..

PPG- WOW 28/5 very speed heavy...will eliminate the "E" 's


1-s..in
1a- e..out
2-p...in
3-e...out
4-e...out
5-p...in
6-e...out yes he shows a win coming from 6th pos..that was only one time
7-e..but first race on poly was troubled trip..his early 1c at TUF could be dominating...in for now
8-e...out
9-e...out

left with...1-2-5-7

proj pace

looks like 22.0 45.2 has the majority

let s go back to the 7....look at his PP's ran good and fast races at TUP for stakes races with purses of 50k and 114k...comes to Hollywood for 40k claimer..whats up?..Hess is a good trainer did he figure that someone would claim him and he'll collect 40+ 26 for purse?...now had a trouble sort of start and ran a so so race on poly...he drops him again....this is the stuff that hurts me when I look too deep...but at probably low odds , I can live with throwing him out..

1-2-5 left

#1...won off the pace at 25 clm and moving up ..slower at 2nd call ..out

2-5 left

#2 out ...slow 2nd call

#5 by default??

knock on him lost to #7 but was ahead on him in race
lost to the 1a but the 1a had a easy lead- wont today


tough race didnt realize its a 2yo and there sorting out where they belong

w/p #5

gl

[mikesal57]

here we go ...I dont like the 5....current form and loses ground in stretch bugs me. his off the pace win was a maiden race..

looking at the 6 again...

a lot of the horses in this race somehow resort back to this one beating them in the past

I maked him before as early from the success he had at Hollywood early in his PP...but did he change his style since....???

3 races back..wins at 32k off the pace at faster fractions...
2nd back...tried to run early with the 1a because of no speed, not sure, so he faded

last race ...no clue what happen ..

but you dont look at one race...look at the whole picture

at 10-1 odds I'll take it w/p #6...maybe a box ex with 7

this is not second guessing..if I labeled the 6 right the first time ..this wouldnt have happened...yeah right :rolleyes:

mike

[PeteC]

Hi Mike:

I went through the race you posted and honestly I did not get a strong feeling. I usually go through pretty quickly and move on unless I feel one horse strongly stands out as a spot play. However, I did go through the rest of the Hollywood card and found three spot plays. I’ll lay out what I saw, as someone trying to implement what I’ve learned from this site:


(I've attached pp's for R1 and R6, but couldn't do R3, if someone else has access that would be much appreciated)

Race 1: 8.5 F

I saw this race as a stand-out sprint to route spot play. The #5 Gumption, goes into a route off of a 109.4 sprint last time. He was 5th at the first call and improved position and beaten lengths at each subsequent call. That 109.4 stands out to me compared to the times of the routers at the 6f mark.

Race 3: 10 F turf

Here I start out with the running styles, grouping them into “E” or “OTE”, or both for some horses:

#1 He’s been a presser lately, although a while back he went to the lead and almost held on. Still, I’ll put him OTE.
#2, 3, 5, and 6 Definite OTE
#4 Early: Fought for 2 calls through a very fast pace 46.2 110 and then opened up a 2 length lead at the stretch call after that fight.

I’m feeling this race is going to be won early, but I check the POR with the other horses:

#1 :He’s pressed that 46.2 110 or similar and either won or been close. Definite contender.

#2 Has faced that pace in last 2 – closed a bit, but not enough impact for me, especially without anticipated fighting today.

#3 has closed into today’s pace before and even beat #4 in the tandem last time, but with a more favorable early scenario today for early, I predict the tandem will reverse.

#5 closed in last race to be 2nd in the tandem race, but again, I’m feeling the reversal today with the 2-call fighter not facing the same pressure.

#6 faced today’s pace 2 back, made a strong middle move but then faded. OUT

So, I’m left with the 1 and 4, but I love playing these multi-call fighters in more favorable scenarios to reverse the tandem. I’ll take #4.

Race 6: 8.5 Turf

#1 Early- I feel like he’ll go as fast as someone wants to go with him early.
#3 Mostly a presser, but see him pushing the early guys like in his last race.
#10 Another major early player, and he needs a clear early lead to win.

#6 won last race wtw, fighting through a slow pace. However, looking down at other lines, he can still do well running ote vs a faster pace.
My eye goes down to line 9: 46.1 110.1 4-14 5-8 5-2 3-1.2

#2, 4, 5, 7 , 8, 12 OTE

I will project the pace to be 46 1 or 2 and 110, based on the last race of #3 and #10. I’m feeling that this race will be won OTE, with a horse from 4th position or further.

#2 faced today’s pace in last 2 and did nothing.
#3 has run ote vs today’s pace but I feel he’s going to get caught up in the fight with the 1 and 10.
#4 faced today’s pace 9 back and didn’t do so well.
#5 never done well vs this pace.
#6 won his last race and faced today’s pace 9 back and made a strong power move to be a close third. Definite contender.
#7 8-back he made a string power move and won vs similar pace, but 3 back only made mild impact. Borderline contender.
#8 mild impact at best vs this pace.
#9 don’t know what to make of this horse. Out
#12 not much to recommend vs this pace.

So I’m left with #7 and #6 but I strongly prefer the 6. I have more confidence going deep for his power line based on his last race win.

Anyway, there’s how I go through the races. Any thoughts or varying opinions welcomed. It’s really cool and helpful to read all the varying approaches.

Thanks to Mike for starting the thread and everyone who's sharing!

[mikesal57]

NO Pete...thank you for coming in to share your thoughts

I started this up because I want to better myself and hope that guys like you come out and show us your success as matchers..

and guess what...it worked :)

I dont have the time to sit a read all the post and digest the good stuff here because of a very busy schedule today a little snow..like 8 ins

tomorrrow will be a better day

thxs again all

mike

[partsnut]

Hi Mike,

My choice would be the (7) to win.:)

[tfm]

HOL R5:

exacta box 1/9

[Bill V.]

I passed the race because of the 2 only having a 4.5 race
and i'm not sure about Doc's Validator program with that distance

Nice try with the 6 at 25/1

[mikesal57]

Well...we had a speed favoring track and didnt get that duel up front

The 6 was last and closed well for 4th and the 7...was no where


I got smacked around by my friend Bud on why the hell I'm picking unpredictable races like this 2yo race...

me dont know:confused:

but I'll try to get regular one up next time

Hey I read somewhere that The Hat picked 17 races in a row all types....Well, I can tell you that I did one better...but they were all losers

mike

[tfm]

HOL R6:

exacta:

:6: / :8: , :12:

[justin13892002]

I will take a shot at Race 7

Exacta

:6: With :1::8::9:



Good Luck

[justin13892002]

I will take a shot at Race 7

Exacta

:6: With :1::8::9:



Good Luck

1 Scratched...

Finished 8-9-6 lol... just wrong key horse. 3 horses box paid an $84 tri though.