Wednesday 6f "matchers"

[RichieP]

Here are a couple for you guys to get into today if you desire.

Middle tab will be set on tandems exactly how Hat wanted me to do them with him

Enjoy!

First one is from GG going 6 panels on the Poly.

Race conditions and pp's

[RichieP]

Here is the rest of the field at GG race 5

[RichieP]

Now let's move your tack to the dirt ok?
:)

[RichieP]

here is Hawthorne's 8th race going 6f on the natural dirt :)

Race conditions and same setup as GG race

Have a great day everyone and good matching!

[RichieP]

Here is the remainder of Hawthorne's 8th race

[mikesal57]

nice going Richie...one race loaded with speed , the other nada..

after my second cup of java , I'll look at them...

thxs again

mike

P.S-HES BACK!!!! :D

[justin13892002]

First, the Poly 6F race.

Looks like pace is projected at 21.8, 45.2, from #2's Last Line.

Although it looks like the 8 can get the lead, and wire the field in 21.1, 44.2.

No horse can match that pace in any lines. There is a bunch of speed in this race, but with a good break, all the pace-setters could be setting 1 to 2 lengths off the 8's pace, and would in the end fall...

I like the 8 or 2 in The 6 Furlong Poly race.




The Hawthorne Dirt Race, 6 Furlongs....

No pace setter really, so fastest pace in last for projected pace, that would be 21.5, 44.5, from the 3 horse.

The 2 and 3 look to be the only horse that have shown to be close, and do well against that pace.

Both 2 and 3 to win if both over 2-1??


Would love to see others views! A little rusty on the concepts.

[mikesal57]

Justin..I have to disagree with you on the first race....

#2 and #8....we know there top speed in this race..

the 2 leads open lengths to win and with the 3 & 8 ..I fell he wont get it

i see the race as OTE and will throw out 2-3-8

projected time 22.0 45.2....I believe looking at just one line is not the way to do it..I think The Hat used multiple lines and didn't rely on just one.

#1) out...nothing since maiden win
#2) out
#3) out..yes he showed a win from 5th...but happened only once..fluke?
#4) in..usually speed horse..last last.."took up start" but nice race..can he do it off the pace again??
#5) in..2nd race on track..line 6 fits here..moving up...
#6) in..another horse with bad start and usually shows speed
#7) out..wont get his up close position with other speed in here
#8) out...


left with 4-5-6

Out with the 5...only one race that he closed and his first race on a poly did nothing
Top jock Alvarado goes on the 4 for the fist time..would consider him top choice

with bet on 4 & 6

mike

[mikesal57]

Just a heads up..results from GG yesterday show most sprint winners coming off pace from mostly 3rd position...no wire jobs

mike

[mikesal57]

next race...tough one...no bias on past results..


projected pace....23...46.2 from the 8 which can lead these
2 & 3 had abnormally fast tracks to race on

1) out..nothing last few
2) in..good form last 2 since claim
3) in...good form and dropping in class
4) out..surprise in last at 22-1 and lost to 2 horses in this race
5) out..best races in slop and needs even slower pace to win
6) out..dont think a closer will win with this slow pace
7) out..nothing in sprints
8) in...for now...probably lead horse
9) out..wins in slop or faster pace

left with 2-3-8

the 3 will be the big favorite...but if the 8 can get a nice easy lead...:eek:

left with boxing these

[PeteC]

Good morning guys...Mike, you were looking for a GG race and you got one! Here's how it looks to me:

#1 Sus
#2 Ear- needs clear lead. Can be on the lead or right there in 21.4 or 22
#3 Ear -although did win ote in 1st race of career
#4 Ear - although ran on well in last race after bad start
#5 P/S
#6 P/S
#7 P or E/P Has won ote as well as early
#8 Ear can fight at 1st call. line 2 is a strong power line. although in my experience, the 5 and 5.5 furlong 1st call times are exceptionally fast at GG, maybe even 2-3 ticks. if anyone else has info on this, I'd be curious to hear.

The matchup:

I feel this race will run ote, in spite of the strong early power line on the 8. The 2 has been on the lead or right there in 21.4 or 22 and the #3 has fought through a 21.4 1st call too.

#1: Only good race was vs 231.1...OUT
#4: Ran on well last time running ote. aslo has an wtw power line with a 1st call of 21.3. If he can sit back again, then he's a strong contender imo.
#5: did nothing in last race tandem...out
#6 decent finishes vs simliar paces. 22.1 or 22.2... contender for now.
#7: 6 races back won vs 22.1 from 5th position at 1st call...In

I'm left with the 4,6 and 7. Honestly tough for me to separate. I lean toward #7 because the other two may revert back to trying to run early. If so, I feel more confident that 7 can lay back off the pace an run on to win.

[mikesal57]

Good morning guys...Mike, you were looking for a GG race and you got one! Here's how it looks to me:

#1 Sus
#2 Ear- needs clear lead. Can be on the lead or right there in 21.4 or 22
#3 Ear -although did win ote in 1st race of career
#4 Ear - although ran on well in last race after bad start
#5 P/S
#6 P/S
#7 P or E/P Has won ote as well as early
#8 Ear can fight at 1st call. line 2 is a strong power line. although in my experience, the 5 and 5.5 furlong 1st call times are exceptionally fast at GG, maybe even 2-3 ticks. if anyone else has info on this, I'd be curious to hear.

The matchup:

I feel this race will run ote, in spite of the strong early power line on the 8. The 2 has been on the lead or right there in 21.4 or 22 and the #3 has fought through a 21.4 1st call too.

#1: Only good race was vs 231.1...OUT
#4: Ran on well last time running ote. aslo has an wtw power line with a 1st call of 21.3. If he can sit back again, then he's a strong contender imo.
#5: did nothing in last race tandem...out
#6 decent finishes vs simliar paces. 22.1 or 22.2... contender for now.
#7: 6 races back won vs 22.1 from 5th position at 1st call...In

I'm left with the 4,6 and 7. Honestly tough for me to separate. I lean toward #7 because the other two may revert back to trying to run early. If so, I feel more confident that 7 can lay back off the pace an run on to win.

nice write up...do we have the field covered now??..lol

[PeteC]

Now the Hawthorne race:

#1: Ugly to me-OUT
#2 Pre
#3: Pre
#4 Sus
#5 Sus
#6 Sus
#7 Ugly-OUT
#8 E/P
#9 Sus

#8 appears to be a weak early to me. I'll use his last race POR for today's pace 22.8 45.9

#2 Last 2 races very strong gainst faster pace. I'll use his last race vs 22.1 and 44.7 with positions 3-2-2-2

#3 Another fast presser moving 4-4-2-3 in last race vs 21.5 44.5

#4 Nice win last out from 6th vs 22.7 45.8. However, with him being further back vs slower pace than the top two, I'll eliminate him.

#5 Similar to #4, nice ote run but from farther back in the pack than the top 2. With today's pace scenario I don't like it. OUT

#6 nothing to recommend vs today's pace...OUT

#9 Another sustained runner, was also beaten by the 2 in a tandem and today's race seems more favorable to the 2.

I'm left with 2 and 3 and can't really separate them with confidence.

[PeteC]

I think so, Mike. Between all of us I think the only thing we "know" about the GG race is that the #9 won't win.

[mikesal57]

I think so, Mike. Between all of us I think the only thing we "know" about the GG race is that the #9 won't win.

whos the 9? :rolleyes:

[mikesal57]

Good luck on these races guys..I'll watch the replay later

I'm off to the Dr to see if PSA TEST #1 came back clean...

Mike

[raceman5]

Hawthorne Race 8

2-4

[PeteC]

Good luck on these races guys..I'll watch the replay later

I'm off to the Dr to see if PSA TEST #1 came back clean...

Mike

Hope you get good news!

[mikesal57]

Hope you get good news!

YES I DID!!!

clean..no detection

AHHH...Now I can relax and pick more ...winners :rolleyes:

thxs Pete


P.S.- only bad news i got is that I have to return to work Jan 9

mike

[noddub62]

That's good news Mike!!! Go get the winners and get back to work cause that's not bad is it.

Bud

[Bill Lyster]

Well that was fun, and profitable. Kind of a late Christmas present from the horse racing gods and their elves. Lets do it again!

[Bill Lyster]

Mike:

had a question about your analysis of the speed duel in the GG race 5. 2 and 8 were the speed, but 8 had a 21.1 and 44.2 pace two back. The 2 last lead a 21.8 but 2nd back wouldn't take the lead in that same fraction. It seemed to me that the 8 would be speed of the speed and not get too taxed up front. The OTE call was the right one, but I was wondering what your thought process was in the face of such fast early fractions. If you said that it was a freak time and would not repeat, thats okay, but if you were thinking that pressure would make the 8 crack more detail would be appreciated. I did not download the race to RDSS so I could not check the E/L or track adjustment figures to see if the time was just whacko or what?

Thanks,

Bill L.

[mikesal57]

Mike:

had a question about your analysis of the speed duel in the GG race 5. 2 and 8 were the speed, but 8 had a 21.1 and 44.2 pace two back. The 2 last lead a 21.8 but 2nd back wouldn't take the lead in that same fraction. It seemed to me that the 8 would be speed of the speed and not get too taxed up front. The OTE call was the right one, but I was wondering what your thought process was in the face of such fast early fractions. If you said that it was a freak time and would not repeat, thats okay, but if you were thinking that pressure would make the 8 crack more detail would be appreciated. I did not download the race to RDSS so I could not check the E/L or track adjustment figures to see if the time was just whacko or what?

Thanks,

Bill L.

Sorry i didnt get back to this Bill..and yes..I thought it was a freak race..I've read that The Hat would look at several races , not just one.

mike