1/3 GP 2nd race 7 furlongs

[Bill Lyster]

First half of field:

Note the 2 horse is out of order

[Bill Lyster]

18738

18739

18740[ATTACH]2nd half of field

[Bill Lyster]

Last horse is #6. I had memory problems with screenshots -- sheesh!!

[Bill Lyster]

Horse #6

[Bill Lyster]

1 -E, LINE 1 OFF SY Med TRACK
2 -E ; USED 22.3 45.2 111.2 AS PACE OF RACE
3 -EP, LINE 1 OR 3; L3 IS FASTER AND FROM MUDDY Belmont
4 -E, BUT REALLY NO FORM
5 -EP, LINE 2 SLOW AND OUT
6 -E, OFF 303 DAYS, WORK PATTERN IS SUSPICIOUS, MAY CLOG FRONT, OUT
7 -P, LINE 3 OR 7 ONLY TRUE PRESSER
8 -EP, LINE 2 USUALLY RUNS SEVERAL LENGTHS BACK IN ABOUT 3RD; WON'T BE 3RD TODAY, BUT LOOKS TO RUN FAR ENOUGH OFF LEAD NOT TO GET SUCKED IN
9 -E, ONLY RECENT IS SLOPPY TRACK AND NOT FAST ENOUGH, out


With 5 E and more EP's need someone who runs from 4th-6th who can pass horses.

Race to be run OTE with 3-7-8 as main contenders. 8 has pressed fastest pace and has closed against 44.7. 7 has run 6-6-3-1 vs a 45.3 and closed almost 6 lengths from 1c to 2c. 8 ran 3-3-4-5 against 44.7 and 108.8. so my two are the 8 and 7, favoring the 8 being closer to lead and vs faster time.


Good luck to all of you,

[justin13892002]

Good Morning Bill.


I used 1's last line to project todays pace of 22.2, 45.4, 110.5


There are a good deal of pressers in this race, so I see race being OTE, although I do think the 1 will hold strongest of pace horses and could pick up bottom of exotics...

1- Wire to wire at projected pace, but is stretching out
2- Major stamina issues. Will need to go faster early for lead. Eliminated.
3- Excellent race 3 back, against roughly projected pace
4- Too Slow, Eliminated
5- Off the pace horse, but needs to go faster today. Eliminated
6- OTE, but hasnt been close last 3. Off Long Layoff. Eliminated.
7- Ecellent 3 back. Can be close off todays pace.
8- Great presser, who can be closee against faster pace.
9- Too Slow Eliminated.

Contenders left are 1-3-7-8.

The 1 as said, is an exotic threat only. Too much pace in here.
The 7 has raced against slower pace, and has the slowest 7 furlong final time of the 3 horses left.

Leaves 3 and 8 for top win honors. Both should be barely off the pace early. I cant see a deep closer passing this 1 late. The 1 has a decent finishing kick even after posting good fractions!

So 3 and 8 to win.


Good Luck

[mikesal57]

Damn Guys..I'm usually the first one posting...Whats up!!!

I'll keep it simple...when have u seen a Calder first half done in 45 and 2 tenths??

Calder is one of the slowest tracks in the country...

#2 should have a 5 lts lead by the half and make it easy..

looking at the results from that day confirmed that it wasnt a fast track..times were there normal slow in other races..

gl

mike


p.s- and Bill...Dont let that Hawaiian Sunshine get to you ... keep things in order :D

[mamojica]

Since live racing was canceled at Aqueduct today :(, I have plenty of time to try this Gulfstream race.

Here are the running styles of the horses:

E – 1, 2, 6, 9
EP – 2, 8
P – 3, 4, 7
SP – 4, 5

I have #2 as both an E and EP, and #4 as both P and SP.

For the projected pace, I chose #2’s most recent line. My projected pace is:

22.1 45 1:11

I threw out 4, 5, 7 and 9 as competitors because they were too slow or for other reasons. Well, I actually didn’t throw them out. That implies that there wasn’t much thought in the process. Rather, after careful consideration, I decided that these four horses were very unlikely to win.

Comparing horses line by line:

1 vs 2 – Ugh! Those track-to-track comparisons I hate so much! Fortunately, both horses raced at Philadelphia Park, and it looks like #2 is better early. So I throw out #1, but with misgivings.

2 vs 6 – The #6 returns to the track after 10 months. His running lines for 2008 would make him a competitor, but he ran poorly in his last 4 races. Has he been helped by the layoff? If his races right before the layoff were good ones, I would consider him without hesitation. But since he was running poorly, I doubt he will recapture his form. #6 is out.

2 vs 8 – The #8 can handle any pace the #2 has run, and finishes faster. Plus, #8 has run at better tracks, presumably against better competition, and still finished well. I prefer #8.

8 vs 3 – I can’t choose between them. They perform equally well against a similar pace.

If the odds are good, I’ll bet both.

Good Luck,
Marc

[justin13892002]

Damn Guys..I'm usually the first one posting...Whats up!!!

I'll keep it simple...when have u seen a Calder first half done in 45 and 2 tenths??

Calder is one of the slowest tracks in the country...

#2 should have a 5 lts lead by the half and make it easy..

looking at the results from that day confirmed that it wasnt a fast track..times were there normal slow in other races..

gl

mike


p.s- and Bill...Dont let that Hawaiian Sunshine get to you ... keep things in order :D


Mike,

Didnt you post recently you need to stop worrying about track variant and all that?? lol.

Hey 2 will be long, so if you get it, it will be nice! Good Luck man.

[mikesal57]

Mike,

Didnt you post recently you need to stop worrying about track variant and all that?? lol.

Hey 2 will be long, so if you get it, it will be nice! Good Luck man.

yeah..I did.....but I'll have to try and close the right eye now..lol

thxs Justin

[mikesal57]

Justin this will be real interesting to watch..you say that the 1 will pressure the 2 into submission...but if you look at the 1 all of his leads were on off tracks...and the rest dont seem to hinder the 2...rest of field has nothing to offer early either

mike

i like this thinking...

[SilentRun]

I would like to jump in. I concur that the 3 and 8 have the best final times.
However the 8 has been off for 50 days without a solid 5f workout.
The 3 has been off 58 days but has had a 5f workout
within the past 14 days.
Yes the final time for the 7 is weak but the horse
is competitive to the 2nd call. In sprints up to 6.5 f, to me, it is
all about being there at the 2nd call over the final time.
Also the 2 horse is the earlist and has been up close with the pace
in its last race. IMO the #2 is an in-the-money candidate.

My call is 2-3-7 for win. I check the tote-X-ray at 2 MTP before my final decision.
I would also play an exacta looking at the best odds between the
2-3-7-8 near post time.

Good Luck in R2............Ernie

[justin13892002]

The 8 did win, but unfortunately only paid $5.00.

Mike, your 2 held on much better than the 1. Nice job looking into it to see the 1's leads were only on the slop!

[mikesal57]

The 8 did win, but unfortunately only paid $5.00.

Mike, your 2 held on much better than the 1. Nice job looking into it to see the 1's leads were only on the slop!

thxs...but it didnt help me at all...lol

next time buddy

mike