Philly - Tuesday - 6f

[RichieP]

Race 7 going 6f

Tandems on middle tab

Race conditions and entries

[RichieP]

...

[RichieP]

..:)

[Bill Lyster]

1-S or no form. V slow

2-S, but makes good and consistent power moves. Only ? is surface adaptability

3-E, usually needs open lead to win; this is 2nd layoff return. In last he could not get near the previous winning fractions. Might be an early runner and if so, will probably hurt whoever takes lead

4-P - apparently not a win contender but plenty of 2nds and 3rds, keep for now; but note he rarely passes any one - NOT FOR WIN

5-SP - no wins in last 10; shows some ability to close but stretch position is usually 4+ lengths off the leader. NOT FOR WIN

6-EP, Finger Lakes horse has never taken lead, but may push the leader here. FL just a tad slower than Philly, so its best of 111 is probably not good enuf for this field. OUT

7-E and pace setter: 22.5-45.8-111. Most recently needed open lengths to win, but has won as a presser in the past. Keep

8-EP/P, used line 3 although time for L2 was good. This horse should press the leader and cause it to lose.

9-E/P, always presses whatever is put in front of it, not a winner.

This race is OTE for me for the number of pressers that will prevent open lead unless the 7 runs to 2nd line back. Off his last he needed a rest and is now coming back. History shows good races after layoffs, so it might not be outlandish to consider some faster fractions and an open lead Eliminations are 3-9. The 1 is NF, leaving 2-4-5-6-8. The 6 is OUT, and the 4 is OUT (can't pass), leaving the 2-5-8

Comparing the 2 and 5, the five will pass horses but the 2 moves to about 2L off pace at stretch call vs 4L for the 5, so I take 2 over 5.

8 has closed and won against faster fractions than todays (45.2-57.8) , even if the 7 opens up here, and is my favorite to win, but I will box the 5, 7 and 8.

...now if I can only remember to place the bet....

Good luck tomorrow,

Bill

[PeteC]

Looks like a nice race. First, here are the horses I considered in the early scenario, along with their pace and position preferences:

#3 – Has won wtw as well as from 3rd at 1C. Won 3-back vs 22.3 45.3 but has failed in the last 2 vs similar or slower paces.

#6 – Has won from 2nd position at 1C pressing 22 and change 45 and change fractions.

#7 – Has won wtw or from 2nd position. Lost last time vs a 22.8 46.3.

#8 – Won last race wtw vs 22.6 46.4 but also shows it can win or run well from 3rd or 4th position at 1C.

#9 – Likes to sit 1st or 2nd. Dueled and faded thru 22.7 46.7 before fading.

I’ll project the pace of the #8’s last race of 22.6 46.4. #3, #7, and #9 show recent lines vs a similar pace where they contended early, then faded. In addition, #8 has an advantage to me in that it can drop back early if the pace is too crazy and then run on and win. Line 3 shows that…4-3-2-1 vs faster pace than the last race. With the big win in the last race I really like to scan for other fast lines. I also find line 6 where he faced 22.1 44.7 and held 2nd position the whole way.

#6 is the only other contender left in the mix but I don’t see a line that can match #8’s 6th line back.

For me it’s #8 to win…

[Bill Lyster]

I have an oddball question for those local to the circuit. I notice that most of the PHA horses have been off for 40 or so days. Was the track shut down for a period and no one shipped out or is this race just an aberration?

Reason I ask is that interpretation of past lines is subject to the answer. Several of the entrants ran on 20-30 day cycles and now take 42 days or so off.

THanks for any explanations.

Bill

[mikesal57]

I have an oddball question for those local to the circuit. I notice that most of the PHA horses have been off for 40 or so days. Was the track shut down for a period and no one shipped out or is this race just an aberration?

Reason I ask is that interpretation of past lines is subject to the answer. Several of the entrants ran on 20-30 day cycles and now take 42 days or so off.

THanks for any explanations.

Bill

Hey Bill...I'd say no to time off..Philly runs most of the year..and to answer next question..shippers don't do well either

especially those crappy Woodbine horses...;)

[SilentRun]

I would bet 5 & 8 to win. I think the 7 will go off at 2/1 or less
and will be a hide for win. Yes the 9 fades but runs early and
has managed to be ITM in its last 3 races. It is a good exotic candidate.
But I did not do well at Philly yesterday so I am a little gun shy.

Ernie

[justin13892002]

Hey guys. Not much time to post reasoning or anything.

Top 3 horses in my opinion are 2-5-7.

Woodbine shipper (2) moves up in class slightly, but ships to SLOW woodbine track.

5 is an excellent stalker, and can make up decent ground. Drops in class.


Selections

:7: With secondary choices of :2: and :5: in that order.

[cdax]

I project a faster pace than most of you, somewhere around 22.3/45.5. No matter how many times I look over the race I see a duel up front with the 3 and 7. The 7 may possibly win the duel but I won't play it at 2-1.

So if the leaders (hopefully) breakdown my eyes continually go to the 6 and 8. Even tho the 6 appears a little short on class it still has some decent SR's and I believe may benefit from pace.

Probably wrong, but if I keep going back to that horse, I gotta take it.

Win bets on 6 & 8.

[mikesal57]

OK...until Philly changes into a closers track, I'll take the e & e/p


out are 1-2-4-5

pace proj 22.3 twice from the 3 and he can also do a sub 22

with that said, I see no other that can go with him making for a easy lead and coasting home
note: Scotty Lake claim

gl

mike

[Bill Lyster]

1-S or no form. V slow

2-S, but makes good and consistent power moves. Only ? is surface adaptability

3-E, usually needs open lead to win; this is 2nd layoff return. In last he could not get near the previous winning fractions. Might be an early runner and if so, will probably hurt whoever takes lead

4-P - apparently not a win contender but plenty of 2nds and 3rds, keep for now; but note he rarely passes any one - NOT FOR WIN

5-SP - no wins in last 10; shows some ability to close but stretch position is usually 4+ lengths off the leader. NOT FOR WIN

6-EP, Finger Lakes horse has never taken lead, but may push the leader here. FL just a tad slower than Philly, so its best of 111 is probably not good enuf for this field. OUT

7-E and pace setter: 22.5-45.8-111. Most recently needed open lengths to win, but has won as a presser in the past. Keep

8-EP/P, used line 3 although time for L2 was good. This horse should press the leader and cause it to lose.

9-E/P, always presses whatever is put in front of it, not a winner.

This race is OTE for me for the number of pressers that will prevent open lead unless the 7 runs to 2nd line back. Off his last he needed a rest and is now coming back. History shows good races after layoffs, so it might not be outlandish to consider some faster fractions and an open lead Eliminations are 3-9. The 1 is NF, leaving 2-4-5-6-8. The 6 is OUT, and the 4 is OUT (can't pass), leaving the 2-5-8

Comparing the 2 and 5, the five will pass horses but the 2 moves to about 2L off pace at stretch call vs 4L for the 5, so I take 2 over 5.

8 has closed and won against faster fractions than todays (45.2-57.8) , even if the 7 opens up here, and is my favorite to win, but I will box the 5, 7 and 8.

...now if I can only remember to place the bet....

Good luck tomorrow,

Bill

What I meant to conclude was that 8 was my favorite to win and my box includes the 2 and 7, or was that my subconscious telling me that the 5 was better. We'll find out soon enough. Apologies for the gap in logic in my conclusion.


Bill

[Bill Lyster]

OK...until Philly changes into a closers track, I'll take the e & e/p


out are 1-2-4-5

pace proj 22.3 twice from the 3 and he can also do a sub 22

with that said, I see no other that can go with him making for a easy lead and coasting home
note: Scotty Lake claim

gl

mike


Mike:

Thanks for the profile heads up. In the last 14 races at 6 furlongs, 7 won on or just off lead, 7 pressed in some manner, but hardly any of them were more than 1.5 lengths behind at the 2nd call. Kinda makes it tough for the 2 and 5 to close enough for the win. I will adjust my play accordingly. Thanks again,

Bill

[SilentRun]

R7: The 7 has been scratched, to me this brings up the #2 to a contender.

Win 5 & 8
Exacta box 2-5-8

Ernie

[mikesal57]

Mike:

Thanks for the profile heads up. In the last 14 races at 6 furlongs, 7 won on or just off lead, 7 pressed in some manner, but hardly any of them were more than 1.5 lengths behind at the 2nd call. Kinda makes it tough for the 2 and 5 to close enough for the win. I will adjust my play accordingly. Thanks again,

Bill

My pleasure Bill...now watch em come out of the clouds :eek:

[cdax]

I can no longer back my 6 and 8 for a win. Now I don't see the 3 with any competition for the lead and may just wire it today.

win on the 3
ex 3/6,8

[raceman5]

.10 super box 2-3-5-6-8

[justin13892002]

Hey guys. Not much time to post reasoning or anything.

Top 3 horses in my opinion are 2-5-7.

Woodbine shipper (2) moves up in class slightly, but ships to SLOW woodbine track.

5 is an excellent stalker, and can make up decent ground. Drops in class.


Selections

:7: With secondary choices of :2: and :5: in that order.


With the 7 scratched, the selections then became 2-5 in that order.

Finished 2-5

$2 Exacta paid $35.00

[RichieP]

Excellent work!
Justin has the win and exacta cold with Ernie nailing the exacta also!

Very nice!

[mikesal57]

With the 7 scratched, the selections then became 2-5 in that order.

Finished 2-5

$2 Exacta paid $35.00

go justin!!!