Penn - Thursday - 6f

[RichieP]

This is the 3rd race Thursday night going 6f.

[RichieP]

The field

[RichieP]

..:)

[mikesal57]

Ok..lets start

proj pace 22.4..45.6 from the #3

1) e/p..needs open lts and wet to win,wont get it...out
1a) p in form , can handle pace in past, but class rise no good...out
2) s....last good vs pace ...in
3) e..pacesetter..in
4) no form last 2...out
5) p..in form...in
6) e/p in form...in
7) p..2nd & 3rd back ok...in
8) followed the 3 last race and faded..out
9) s..needs a 44 pace and wet track wont get either..out

elim also the 3 cause of other early pace

2-5-6-7

2 vs 5....2 -wins faster paced race

2 vs 6 ...6 wins...closer to faster race

6 vs 7...6 wins...same as above

# 6 to win

gl

mike

[Bill Lyster]

Mike:

Analysis looks good. Like the fact that 6 has fought against faster paces successfully in the past.

I would also look a little more closely at L3 for the 7. This horse now looks like it wants to press only where earlier it wired a field. The early gain in line 3 against a 44.8 is encouraging. A 6x7x2 box looks like it picks up some good $


Regards,

Bill L.

[Capcondo]

Thanks for putting this race up Richie.

We're all going down together on this one.

I would love to get the 6:1 morning line on the 6. There isn't much speed in here with the 1 and the 3. The 6 might actually get the lead. He should be able to handle the 22.2 45.4 put up by the 3. Form the second call to the stretch call, it doesn't look like the front runners can stay with the 6 and ths sutained horses aren't fast enough to catch him.

The 6 to win. I'll be watching and probably wagering.

[cdax]

Pretty much down with the same three horses. 2,6,7.

7 to win
2,6,7 ex box

gs to all

[PeteC]

I'll project the pace off the #3's last line...22.2 45.3.

I feel there are two horses in here that stand out early vs that pace. #1A just wired the field vs a slower pace but shows he can win from 1,2, or 7th position at the 1C vs faster paces.

#6 is an early fighter who's done well vs faster paces too. Looking at the Med lines he seems faster than the 1A but I'm not sure how those tracks compare.

Based on the Pen lines:

#1A line 7 21.4 44.3 2-2-1-1
#6 line 8 22.1 44.4 1-1-1-1

Close call. But they stand out to me from the rest of the field.

[RichieP]

The result:

Bill L and Cdax grab the exacta :)

Penn National - Race 3 Chart video replay
# Win Place Show
2 $5.20 $3.40 $2.60
6 . $4.60 $3.20
4 . . $8.60

Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 2-6 $25.40
$0.50 Trifecta 2-6-4 $68.05

I am changing up with my next series of races going forward :)

[mikesal57]

hey..

Going back to this race...

I would like to know with matching horses..

the 2(last line) vs 6(2nd back)......was it correct that I had the 6 winning?

please explain your thoughts

mike

[Bill Lyster]

Well, since we both failed to ID this horse as the top contender this might be like taking a WAG to two decimal places...

A full review of the PPs shows that at one time this horse could attend paces at 44 or less and not lose many lengths. BUT last race was 58 days ago and 2nd back was 109, 3d back was 147 days. Race spacing of 58-51-39 would not allow me to make the jump back to his best. Horse ran at lowest ever race after maiden and at least the last was a sign of some life. Horse was favorite and you might have hid him in your mind anyway given the price.

Looking at the chart the horse took lead after 1st call and never looked back. PP's never show that in a sprint. Wily trainer moves defeat us again!

Next race....!!

[mikesal57]

Well, since we both failed to ID this horse as the top contender this might be like taking a WAG to two decimal places...

A full review of the PPs shows that at one time this horse could attend paces at 44 or less and not lose many lengths. BUT last race was 58 days ago and 2nd back was 109, 3d back was 147 days. Race spacing of 58-51-39 would not allow me to make the jump back to his best. Horse ran at lowest ever race after maiden and at least the last was a sign of some life. Horse was favorite and you might have hid him in your mind anyway given the price.

Looking at the chart the horse took lead after 1st call and never looked back. PP's never show that in a sprint. Wily trainer moves defeat us again!

Next race....!!

Thx. Bill...I too didn't want to go back to those races