PHA Jan 23 Race 9

[cprescigno]

Anyone catch that $102 winner in the ninth at Philly today?
Track was listed as Muddy weather Showery.

Charlie

[Binder]

Hey Charlie
I was unable to look at Philly till tonite
This might look good for the winner but
In the next screen shot I will show the the winner # 5 ,I
would probably miss this one because of the last 4 poor efforts

[Binder]

Here is the past performance screen for the 50/1 winner

2 problems
1. I wouldn't go down to line 5. This seems to be Morgans level
AlwNw2
Here are the conditions

PHA0123 9 8.3 D AL 4+ $22,000 3:50PM
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS
AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO
RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR
STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE
RACES. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners of a
race at one mile or over since December
23 Allowed 3 lbs. Such a race since
November 23 Allowed 5 lbs. (Maiden,
Claiming, and Starter races not
considered).

2. Lines from the Medowlands are too fast and I have nothing in the last 4 races to justify this 88 SR

[cprescigno]

Looking at your BL screen caused me to download the race card and take a look through Spec. I actually ran it through both Spec and Val. Very different results from one to the other.
Using Spec I can see the 10 in my top 5 contenders and also the 7 but using the DECL numbers Spec favors the 5-10. I use the Decl numbers a lot to reinforce my decision.
Not sure I would have gone with the 5. Can't say now for sure knowing that I know he won the race and I elected to stay out today due to the weather.
I think under normal circumstances I would go with line 5. It's one of two choices, either go with that line or leave him out. I don't like to leave them out and prefer the program to sort it out for me. I did leave out the 1 horse.
Here is the pacelines I used. I went with the weaker line on the 10 I think. Val selected the stronger line.

[cprescigno]

Here's the BL/BL Screen using Spec.

[cprescigno]

And here is the Summary screen. Like I said, I use the DECL raw numbers frequently to support a decision. Here it points to the 5-10. I don't how to pick the 7 but he comes in top 5 contenders.

[cprescigno]

OK I did all of that and it's too late to make a bet but the differences between Spec and Val are interesting. Does that mean when it's muddy and raining we use Spec?
My current goal is to hit a $100 winner.
I'll make you a deal. You are the master at Philly. The next time there is going to be a $100 winner at Philly you let me know and we'll work out the race and come up with the winner, and maybe sweeten it with an exacta.
It's too much to ask for that 9K trifecta but we'll go for that one too!

Charlie

[admin]

funny when I first read your coments
my thought was oh no here we go again
I even made this screen shot and I was about to say "Hello"
the question is about line 5 for horse 5 as both programs have it rated # 1

Now I see your looking at nice Exacta and a $9000 trifecta which is good ..
Actually thats what Doc did when I worked with him
in his office He kept working the race till he got the trifecta
in his top 5. I guess its great practice
I added my 3 screen for me my lines the 10 and 7 are hides
So Spec did a great job in this race

[cprescigno]

Yes, here we go again.
Thsi one was bothering me some so I worked it a bit further.
Using Match Up guidelines the 5 was definitely worth going back 5 lines.
Match Up rules favored the 1A-5-10.
2nd Call was actually slightly faster in yesterday's race than the 5 horse had posted before and he had the best 2nd call time in the pacelines.
Actually that was an error. Both the 1A and 5 posted better 2nd Call times than they did in yesterday's race. the 10 was about 4 ticks over.
The fractions were
46.53, 1:12.15 and 1:43.69

Charlie

[alydar_ David]

...
Match Up rules favored the 1A-5-10...

Charlie

What Match Up rules are those, Charlie?

I'm not sure what you mean; can you elaborate?

Thanks.

---

PS- I did bet that race yesterday at PHA, as well five other races. Lost them all. Had the winner of the first today (my third choice), but missed the double and am throwing in the towel there. LOL

2nd race - Philadelphia Park - January 24, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
12 Cozy Fannie 89.40 34.00 20.80
4 Queen's Folly 10.60 6.40
10 Justaspringfling 23.40


$2 Daily Double 1-12 536.00
$2 Exacta 12-4 1,016.00
$2 Trifecta 12-4-10 38,378.80

[cprescigno]

Hi Dave,
Nice hit the other day. I didn't play Philadelphia yesterday but after looking at that 9th race I am sorry about it.
Don't give up on Philly, we can do well there we just have to put our heads together. I had the 1 horse in the First, paid $11.00, no exacta I think it was the 11 and 10 a 6K trifecta. Couldnt see the 10 or 11 unless I eliminated the really early horses from the E/L screen and then I think I could see the 11.

As for the Match Up rules as I call them. There is a document in the files section with the Yellow Manual called Match Up Manual. It's in two parts and most of it was written by Jim Bradshaw though there was a part written by Doc Sartin. From that I have been using these guidelines to try to figure out pace times, mostly 2nd call in sprints where that seems to be powerful, and trying to determine which horses can meet the expected fraction times. If nothing else it forces me to take a much better look at all of the horses pacelines than I normally do which is not a bad thing.
Here are some of the basic guidelines that I put into a word doc.
MATCH UP GUIDELINES

1. Find the horse that has run closest to the best pace race.
2. Find the other horses in the race that have run well against similar pace races. These horses are your true contenders.
3. Find the pacelines that you are going to use for the contenders in this race.
4. Find the horse that is going to take the lead at the First Call, and using the Quick Method Pace Chart write his feet per second figure on your Pace Matchup Graph.
5. Find the horse that is gong to have the best time to the Second Call and write down this figure.
6. Subtract all of the horses Second Call from their Final Time and write down this figure.
7. Find the horse with the best final time and write down this figure.
8. Write the name of each contender and their feet-per-second figure for each call on the graph.
9. Interpret your graph and see how the race is going to develop, and determine the two horse you would bet on.
10. Write down the names of the two horses you would bet.

TO DETERMINE PACE OF THE RACE

1. Look at the first call in all ten past performance lines for each competitor, determine it’s normal first fraction time at a distance comparable to today and write this time by the name of each horse.
2. Do the same thing for the second call and the second fraction for each contender.
3. Subtract the second call from the final time to determine the third fraction.

You will have five times.
1st Fraction 2nd Fraction 3rd Fraction 2nd Call Final Time

[alydar_ David]

Thank you for going through all the trouble to post those guidelines, Charlie.

I'm familiar with that material, just never heard them referred to as "rules" before. LOL

When I said I was throwing in the towel for PHA I meant for the remainder of the day, not forever. Although I routinely swear off that track on a regular basis. Must be the lemming in me that keeps me coming back for more punishment. <G> I think the best approach is still to follow Binder. He owns that track!

Currently my favorite oval is EVD. No doubt about that. However, in the last week a new contender is emerging. Believe it or not, Turf Paradise!

Today I played six races there and won two of them. But mama mia what payoffs! Fourth choice in the fourth (but best at distance) -- 5.5F $3,000 Claimer -- paid $26.60 and the best closer in the sixth -- another cheap Claimer, 6F $4,000 -- paid an outrageous $47.40.

Monday I played three races and won two of them (no prices to speak of). And on Sunday I won two out of four with payoffs of $22.20 and $28.80.

I'm not sure I understand what's going on as that track has typically been chalky as all get out. I'll ride the gravy train while it lasts though! Check it out. Maybe you'll like it.

:>)

[cprescigno]

I'd like to check it out Dave but I'm really green on turf races. I need a lot of work on them. I've been concentrating on Dirt Sprints almost exclucively. I just need a lot more experience on the grass. I'll get there I guess but I still hve tons to learn on the dirt.

I'm still playing Santa Anita, doing OK at Philadephia though I'm having trouble hitting something past the winner. Maybe I'm greedy but I'm always looking for that bigger payout. I'm also playing EVD and doing well there.

I found that Match up document interesting. It has helped some but mostly forcing me to take a better look at all paceines as opposed to just last three.

Charlie

[alydar_ David]

Charlie,

Those Turf Paradise races were almost, if not entirely, all cheap dirt sprints. Give me a 14 horse field running for $5,000 over a stakes race any day.

Betting Lost In The Fog types to win is no way to make money, if you catch my drift.

:>)