Ernie's Tote Xray Examples

[SilentRun]

This is an example of a race whereby one of the top 4 tote-x-ray horses
was not within the top 5 BL/BL but either won or ran ITM.
Sorry but I do not have images of the TX, I use a worksheet to record the TX. All TX data was recorded at 2MTP
I will be submitting 9 more examples from my records.

In the example below the TX was 5-4-15-2. The 15 is the random horse
that was outside of my top 5. the results were: 5 won paid 11.00
The $1 exacta 5/15 paid 77.80.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

In this example the TX at 2 MTP was 1-5-2-7. The #5 was outside my top 5
BL/BL and won paying 24.80.

In looking at the image for the PP's for the 5 the only line that was relevant to me was back 290 days on the dirt at MSW.
I made a judgement call not to use that line. Maybe other users would
have used that last line but I am reporting these results from my perspective.
After the race I entered that line for the #5 and it was first on the BL/BL
food chain.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

In this race the TX at 2 MTP was: 6-7-4-5. The #4 won and paid 35.00.
Even by using the last (best) line for the #4 RDSS places it 6th in TE and
out of the top 5 BL/BL.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

In this race there are 2 contenders that won and showed that were
out of the top 5 BL/BL but the TX had them flagged.

The TX was: 2-12-6-1 The #6 horse won and paid 11.00 although
the TE was 7th.The 2 showed and paid 22.00 and it was also out
of my top 5 BL/BL.
I have more examples that demonstrates that there
is more to the TX that meets the eye but I think I will give this a rest for a while.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Ernie, I hope you don't mind - I gathered your 4 Tote Xray examples into this one Thread, since they're all on the same topic, different illustrations on a theme.

Thanks for posting these! I think a point worth studying is that, at minimum, Tote Xray confidence can suggest a horse which at least belongs in exotic calculations where you may otherwise have eliminated it on every other readout, or where form is too old to trust by your normal metrics. Whether they're a Win candidate is a separate issue, but perhaps, like a high previous (e.g. early last year) CR ranking, perhaps consider this as an excuse to evaluate numbers from further back. Depending on price offered.

I might caution, both pro and con, that if the Tx rank also co-relates with the Top 4 Win Odds (even better if drifting above say 5-1) then that's reinforcement. On the other hand, if a Tx value comes from fairly small amounts of money in the Win or Place pools, and is out of whack completely with Win Odds, consider that there may be too little pool info to go on (unless the all Pool sizes are fairly small...).

Good work - hope to hear you cash on some of these!

Ted

[SilentRun]

Thanks for cleaning up my act. I should have done that.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

Ernie, I hope you don't mind - I gathered your 4 Tote Xray examples into this one Thread, since they're all on the same topic, different illustrations on a theme.

Thanks for posting these! I think a point worth studying is that, at minimum, Tote Xray confidence can suggest a horse which at least belongs in exotic calculations where you may otherwise have eliminated it on every other readout, or where form is too old to trust by your normal metrics. Whether they're a Win candidate is a separate issue, but perhaps, like a high previous (e.g. early last year) CR ranking, perhaps consider this as an excuse to evaluate numbers from further back. Depending on price offered.

I might caution, both pro and con, that if the Tx rank also co-relates with the Top 4 Win Odds (even better if drifting above say 5-1) then that's reinforcement. On the other hand, if a Tx value comes from fairly small amounts of money in the Win or Place pools, and is out of whack completely with Win Odds, consider that there may be too little pool info to go on (unless the all Pool sizes are fairly small...).

Good work - hope to hear you cash on some of these!

Ted

Thanks for your feedback.

Yes, I know that the tote usually is in synch with top 4 win odds.
I also promised BJennet that I would show examples of TX horses that
are outside of the top 5 BL/BL.

I first started looking at the tote for the exotics, in particular the exacta,
for which I need much improvement. I am doing ok at BTW and
if I was smart I should let well enough alone. But no I want to go to the next
level so I started tracking the top 4 TX for exacta hits and at last count it was in the 60-65% range.
Now there's a starting point. As I accumulated more races I began noticing
how outside horses were either winning or running ITM. Now I am thinking
this could be a window of opportunity. Yes, you are right some
of these outside horses are the color coded APV / CR. My RDSS contenders
take priority and I am using the TX as an ancillary tool. This is helping
me but this game is not a piece of cake.

I also see that you defaulted to the 3 Red, Green and yellow TX horses in 2.0.
Could you include that 4th TX horse ?

Regards,

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

TI also see that you defaulted to the 3 Red, Green and yellow TX horses in 2.0.
Could you include that 4th TX horse ?

Regards,

Ernie

Thanks Ernie. The display of all Tote info is in flux, and I'm inclined to bring the Tx in line with other ranks using RED GREEN YELLOW for ranks 1,2,3 (rather than ranks 2,3,4), but YES I agree the 4th ranked Tx horse should be clearly labeled (and for Win Odds as well). Let's see!

Ted

[SilentRun]

Thanks Ernie. The display of all Tote info is in flux, and I'm inclined to bring the Tx in line with other ranks using RED GREEN YELLOW for ranks 1,2,3 (rather than ranks 2,3,4), but YES I agree the 4th ranked Tx horse should be clearly labeled (and for Win Odds as well). Let's see!

Ted

Thanks. Ted, for your consideration.

Ernie

[joseph]

Joseph thanks you for your TX INSIGHTS.



Yet , how would one factor as a measureable value this apparently inside and outside the rdss numbers clue into the body of the program to alert users ?

Here in Las Vegas 2 players I know occasionally do nothing but track odds..

No doubt it is a phenomenon, but its inner workings remain a mystery to me.

It recalls the days of that famous radio show: I Love a Mystery.

[SilentRun]

Oh yeah...I forgot about those posts..............
But I since discontinued tracking the T-XRay as the profit measure of using it did not make it worthwhile. I tested the exacta probabilty (about 60% at the time) by boxing 3 horses but that didn't work out. Maybe boxing the top 4 TX horses is the way to go.(similiar to the New Pace study). I never tried that.

Maybe anyone that is interested in pursuing this can come up with a study that will show positive results.

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Hi Ernie I could work something up but since the xray changes so often and
very often after the gate opens, at what point would be an accurate measure
to track the top 4 tote X ray horses

Bill

[SilentRun]

Hi Ernie I could work something up but since the xray changes so often and
very often after the gate opens, at what point would be an accurate measure
to track the top 4 tote X ray horses

Bill

Hello Bill,

As close to post time as possible...one minute (or less if you can).

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Hi Ernie

I have started the test. Here are the races I was able to catch the Tote X at
1 minute to post. Here is a screen capture and I also have attached the file
if anyone wants to play around with the numbers

Tote X 1 is the 0.0 horse
Tote X 2, 3 and 4 are the next 3 best ( lowest ) ratings at 1 minute to post

The winner of the race is green
The place horse is white with a black border
The show horse is blue
26947
26948

[SilentRun]

Hello Bill,

Very nice presentation...thanks for your effort.

A quick glance at some stats (Understandably small samples are not predictive).

Win 19/28 = 68% (11 winners were low odds 2:1 or less)

Exacta Hits 13/28 = 46%....

IMO ..I personally would be reluctant to pursue this further.

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Does anyone understand what “Tote X-Ray” is?

The concept has been around for years and years and worked best BEFORE there was simulcast and/or on line betting. The reason is simple. No money came in after the race was ‘off’ and the only betting was “AT THE TRACK”. It was fairly easy to get a good look at what you needed to know just before the race went off, after all, the tote board was right in the infield and displayed all the information you needed.

The concept is also simple and I will explain.
Just to make it easy, let’s say there is $10,000 (total) in the win pool and $1,000 (total) in the show pool. The reason you look at the “total” of each pool is to get a ratio of how the public is betting this particular race. In the example, they are betting $10 to win for every $1 being bet to show, therefore the ratio is 10 to 1.

The object is to locate a horse where the ratio is “out of whack” in comparison to the total pool ratio. In other words, if you locate a horse whose individual ratio is 15 to 1, then the question becomes, “why?”. If the public is betting at a ratio of 10 to 1, why is this horse’s ratio 15 to 1? The conclusion is, someone “in the know” is betting more on this horse “TO WIN ONLY”, since they EXPECT the horse to WIN.

Let’s say you are the owner and/or trainer and you know that your horse is as good as you can make it right now in this race. You also have taken great care to place the horse in “the right” race, meaning the right distance and surface, the right class and in the right race condition. You know you can’t have your horse spotted any better. Are you going to bet your horse to show? The answer always comes back…NO!

So in the old days, some “wise guy” came up with this idea of watching the pools to try and locate which horse was “well meant”.

Like everything else in horse racing, this is not absolute. These horses do not always win. But the idea was to wager on horses that were well meant. Since the guy that came up with this idea probably wasn’t good enough at handicapping, he sought some other way to determine the probable winner.

What you have to understand is this. This guy also had competition. There were also people in the crowd watching the tote board for other reasons. Their “gig” was to watch the tote board with particular attention to the favorite. Since these people knew favorites ran in the money 67% of the time, they were looking for “over lays” in the show pool. These guys were good at math and in seconds could calculate the show payoff based on what they saw on the tote board. When they found that over lay… they pounced on it.


By the way, those show betting people bet their money LATE. They didn’t want to ruin it for themselves. In most cases they worked in two man teams. One watched the board while the other was standing at the betting window waiting for a signal. Unfortunately, the money they bet to show changes the pools ratio dramatically. Oops!


There have been many, many different ways to attack betting on horse racing. What you know as “Tote X-Ray” is just one of them. It’s nothing new.

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL
The test I worked on this weekend did nothing for me except
open my eyes to how much money comes into races late. Tracking the tote at 1 minute to post often is very different than what happens when the betting is complete.

Great story about the Xray

Bill

[Ted Craven]

Suppose you have chosen pacelines to the best of your and the software's ability. Your BL/BL screen shows (in top 3 rank order) horses going off at 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1. At 1 MTP the respective TX values are 1.5, 0.0 and 0.5 (ranked 3rd, 1st and 2nd respectively).

We ALWAYS want confirmation on how strong or weak a favourite is. In this scenario, I'm seeking a reason to bet against the 2-1 top ranked favourite. The non-confirmation of the TX to the Win Odds rank gives me another reason to bet against the favourite.

My experience is that TX changes less dramatically approaching post-time (and after) than does Win Odds. Also, when the TX rank does not confirm the Win Odds rank, that is useful.

I have used TX as info on first time or lightly raced horses (along with workout patterns). Among other scenarios.

For the record, Tote Xray is neither the Win/Show ratio (alone) nor is it new (i.e. the fruit of my own brain, though it has been in RDSS for 6 years.) Neither is the Sartin Methodology 'new'. 'Not new' does not equal 'not useful' ...

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

This is race 3 from PID

Here is the Tote X at 1 minute to post
26951
Here is the Tote as soon as the gate pops
26952
Here is when the dust settles
26953
The 6 wins and paid $11.00

This time the late money helped the winner

Bill

[Ted Craven]

Joseph thanks you for your TX INSIGHTS.



Yet , how would one factor as a measurable value this apparently inside and outside the Rdss numbers clue into the body of the program to alert users ?

Here in Las Vegas 2 players I know occasionally do nothing but track odds..

No doubt it is a phenomenon, but its inner workings remain a mystery to me.

It recalls the days of that famous radio show: I Love a Mystery. ;)

Joseph,

Just adding my response from an email I sent you to the public discussion:'Tote Xray' is a ratio between the win, place and show pools for each horse and between that ratio and the pool totals, weighted by the Win odds. So, it is pool ratios tempered by Win Odds – resulting in a number which is not shown, for every horse, which numbers are then expressed like the Perceptor numbers where 0.0% represents BEST and other numbers for other horses represent a percentage deviation from that BEST.

Often the Win Pool favourite is also the Tote Xray 0.0 horse, which means no new information and thus no extra value from the TX. TX value lies either:
- where the 0.0 horse is not the favourite, or where the favourite is lukewarm, for example > 5/2
- where the 2nd or 3rd ranked TX are fairly close to 0.0%, for example < 1%, yet their Win odds are rather higher than the favourite, for example 2nd or 3rd TX win odds may be 5-1 or higher

Tote Xray usually become effective beginning 2 MTP, perhaps even later, possibly depending on track and pool size. Although the TX ratios suffer from late changes as do win odds ranks, I have observed (though perhaps only anecdotally) that the rank of the TX ratios changes LESS than the rank of the Win Odds. If I wanted to know the top 4 horses according to WPS mutuel pools, at 1 MTP rather than after the gate opens, I would consult the TX ranks more than the Odds ranks. Something for hopefully confirmative observation ...

These are some uses of Tote Xray. I am not sure one can make a primary betting strategy with this tool, except perhaps a 4+ horse dutching or hedging strategy in 8+ fields where one is aiming for a break-even plus a good rebate. However, combined with other observed useful handicapping and matchup corollaries, it can be one more positive or negative factor to tip one’s opinion toward or away from a given horse – in the latter category, so much the more fortunate if that horse has a lot of money bet on it. I also have found it useful to evaluate (when I must) First Timers, Foreign Horses or Long Layoff horses.


Hope this is helpful to your explorations!

yours,

Ted

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