Penn - Thursday

[RichieP]

Here is race 6 on tonight's card going 6f for you sprint lovers :)

Race conditions and entries

[RichieP]

The field with the middle tab set on tandems.

[RichieP]

...

[Bill V.]

Race 6

#1 E
#3 S/P
#5 S/P
#6 E
#7 S
#8 S/P

projected pace 5.5 furlongs
21.4 45.1 103.4

Race is Early
7 or 8
Good Skill and Matching to you

[cdax]

starting to second guess my picks. Gonna go with my initial choice after the first quick scan.

#8 to win and
#5 to hold on for place.

won't be putting any money down tho'.

[mikesal57]

Hi guys..

I think it will be the 6's race to win or lose..should get a lt or 2 lead

2 early horses in the 5 & 6 ..but the 5 is a suspect drop down
# 1 should be coming at end

gl

mike

[noddub62]

Penn 6

3
6
1

Depending on odds tonite

Bud

[TPace]

Thank you for posting this race, Richie.

I see the contenders as the 3, 5, and 8.

My win bet would be on the 3.

[Bill Lyster]

1 P
2 P
3 SP
4 NF/S
5 E
6 E/E-P
7 EP
8 P

PACE: 22.2 - 45.4

I think 5 pushes 6 who wants to quit anyway, so that makes it OTE for me.

LIne 2 for the 3
Line 4 for the 7
Lines 2 and 3 for the 8

The 1 presses and closes, but his best is too slow to win.
This pace makes the 3 an SP today
The 7 and 8 look to position themselves just behind the 2 pacesetters and the 8 has run against faster half miles and 5 f times, closeing well

I like 8 to win, with the 3 and 7 to place, 1 show.

Good luck tonight!

[Rverge]

:3::6::7: are my contenders. and will wait to view odds.
other then the :5: the "off claim" doesn't seem to be profitable.

[Rverge]

#3 in the 1st (i hope)

[tleusin]

hate this race and would not touch it----If the 6 does not take it all the way around I think the 1 wins it
and a straight tri of 1-8-5

[Bill Lyster]

With less than 7 minutes left the pick three payoff for the 2 is $32 and the nearest other horse is over $460. Win odds are 15/1. Major pick three $ and perhaps some late win money to come!!!???

This is almost like Turf Paradise. Last week I saw a horse that I liked at 22/1. By the time I bet it, it was 17/1 and during the race the odds dipped to 8/1. My horse won going away, but I'd've liked 22/1 vs 8:1. Weird stuff and small pools.

[SilentRun]

Sorry but I could not decide until about 2 MTP I felt that since #6 always made
it to the 2Call - stretch and if he didn't fade he had a good chance...so I placed a small
one. I was lucky this time.

Ernie

[RichieP]

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mikesal;, Ernie and all who had good work!

That is Hat's FPLR longshot spot play laid out on spades in both the 8 month update thread and elsewhere. Also throw in a TWO call FIGHTER out of that FPLR race

Check it out men

12/1 for those who jumped in :)

[Bill V.]

Wow very nice guys. Good for you

[Sekrah]

Hi guys, new to paceandcap.com and RDSS. Why are we using the 6 here?

[RichieP]

Hi guys, new to paceandcap.com and RDSS. Why are we using the 6 here?

Morning and welcome here!
Before I jump in maybe Mikesal or someone familiar with what I mentioned above can chime in and give you some feedback ok?

The "8 month update" thread I spoke of can be found here in Mr. Bradshaw;s Hat Check Forum:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1951

Again welcome and I will wait to see if others chime in before commenting :)

[TPace]

Richie can give you the full perspective, but I will chime in my views.

Richie posts races periodically that help Matchers hone their skills. The races I have seen lately, that have been posted, are sometimes ugly races that most handicappers would not enjoy. Richie has taken lessons learned from The Hat and found races, such as the 6 from yesterday, and incorporated the lessons previously posted. This helps us identify great opportunities to improve our craft and also profit.

The particulars of this lesson were not only the fplr concept, but also using and trusting your intuition and other "Hat" characteristics to fully see how a race will unfold. Many times it's obvious after the fact--but what will you choose and bet before the race is run?

For me in particular, these are great and generous opportunites given by Richie to help us. I am also relatively new here and have participated in only a few of these so far. I did well in the first, but this one I did not fully trust the "voodoo" aspect of the Match Up. I am expecting that to come in time.

I hope that this helps illuminate why Richie is posting these, but I expect and hope that others fill in the blanks, as my perspective is new and definitely not the full picture.

[PeteC]

Great matching to everyone who had Lyka Card Shark!

[SilentRun]

Hi guys, new to paceandcap.com and RDSS. Why are we using the 6 here?

From my perspective: For sprints such as this 5.5 F the horse(s) that
can get to the 2nd Call (4F) ahead of all others have already completed 2/3 of the race and these
horse(s) have the best chance of winning or running in the money.
The 2nd call is the pivotal point in sprints.

Just look at the #6's past performance. In his last 10 starts he has always
been competitive to the 2nd call and many times he was up there at the
stretch. He won some and he tired some. You can see, without any further
analysis, that this horse is an exceptional front runner.

if you use RDSS and are left with 5 contenders this horse should be
the earlist on the E/L graph, and first E/EP also check the velocity screen
and look at the SC column. This horse is a strong contender at very generous
odds.

I hope I answered your question.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

Hi guys, new to paceandcap.com and RDSS. Why are we using the 6 here?

OPPS !

SORRY, I FINALLY REALIZED YOU WERE REFERRING TO THE 6TH RACE AND
NOT THE 6TH HORSE. SO SCRATCH MY POST "FORGETABOUT IT".

Ernie

[RichieP]

OPPS !

SORRY, I FINALLY REALIZED YOU WERE REFERRING TO THE 6TH RACE AND
NOT THE 6TH HORSE. SO SCRATCH MY POST "FORGETABOUT IT".

Ernie

Nope Ernie you are right on the money with what you posted up. The 6 is the winner and that is what Sekrah is asking about.

I am looking for a matcher to lay out a bit of Hat's FPLR spot play for him and if folks are busy I will post up in a day or so ok?

have a great weekend all :)

[Sekrah]

I did mean the horse, but since we are on the topic. Why are we using the 6th race?

[RichieP]

Hat's FPLR (fastest pace last race) spot play:

This feedback below by me is taken from post #36 in the "8 month update" thread:


3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about position 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse's WHOLE pp's up and evaluate him off BEST line (s).

You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).

The "fastest pace from last race" is something Jim taught me to do in EVERY race I open up to work. This is kind of a primer to start seeing things about the race that might reveal a horse who is extremely dangerous from what he shows in his LAST RACE.

1) Battling for the lead from 1c-2c
2) making a QUICK positional move from 1c-2c
etc etc.

Note that the last thing written about this is the "possibility to make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type of horse WHEN it fits today's winning race shape early or other than early"

Emilio we do this FIRST when looking at a race. Then if the horse shows NOTHING against the pace we MOVE ON with the working of the race matching etc etc.

If he DOES show positive signs from the race we then have to see if he FITS the race shape that's gonna win today
a) Early - projecting a wire to wire win
b) Other than early - ALL other races

For example:
Our horse battled gamely from 1c-2c against the fastest pace from last race before collapsing. ok so we open his pp's up and grab his fastest line( Power line) to evaluate against the others today.

BUT in today's race there are 2 or 3 other PURE EARLY runners and our guy is the SAME. If he can NOT pass horses he is identified as EARLY style and with the other earlies in the race (assuming their 1st fractions are at least as fast as our guy) TODAY'S winner is gonna be Other than early. Our horse does NOT fit this shape ok?

That's why I described this "look" at the fastest pace from last race as a good thing to create a SPOT PLAY type deal from. It's only gonna help us in SOME races BUT we have to do the mental work and look at EVERY race to find the ones where it WILL tell us something.

......................................................................................................

Now please take the time to go back and check the pps of this Penn race. There are only 2 early horses in the numbers 5 and 6. They are the ONLY horses who have won from position 1 at the FIRST call. Mr. Bradshaw's match up concepts start at the break and first calls and NOT the 2nd call.

Watch this now:
1) FPLR is the #6 (check also that the horse was FIGHTING for the first TWO calls in that FPLR race. a HUGE positive in Hat's book and posted about many times in the Hat Check, the multi call fighter)- Style - Early + can also WIN from the 2nd position and that after fighting for 2 calls (line 8)

2) Open the #6 in his pps as it states above all the way and come down to line 6 from TDN:
21.8 - 45.0 - 57.2 - WINS after fighting at first call

3) now move to the #5 and you see he cant even get on top of fractions of 22.5 - 45.5 in his last race. Throw him out

Who is left as the true early horse?? #6 + he can FIGHT.

There is your horse as Jim used to tell me. Now look at the result chart. Look at the fractions, then look at the FPLR fractions from the pps. Who is the TRUE early horse? See it?

Mikesal, Ernie and those who bet the winner all did great work and a sincere congrats to Bill V also who simply wrote down the wrong number. He HAD the winner and wrote down #8 on a typo.

Sekrah hope this helps you. There is a VAST area of knowledge about matching horses in Mr. Bradshaw's Hat Check Forum here. It is a complete body of work on the 2 years that Jim spent teaching me his concepts from A-Z. The threads there are a reflection of how he taught ME as an individual and I know he hand taught his other 1/2 dozen students differently. Feel free to explore the Forum at your leisure to see if my learned ways can help YOU prosper

:)

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Richie:

I was really struggling with that race. I needed a refresher lesson and this was it.

Bill