Woodbine - Tonight

[RichieP]

This is the 5th race at 7 furlongs on the poly going off this evening around 8:45 PM EST

I am putting this one up for one specific reason:
There is not one confirmed early runner in the entire field.

Curious to see how you tackle it as these races are NOT in my wheelhouse at all.

Have at it guys/gals if you so desire :)

Race conditions and entries:

[RichieP]

The field with the middle tab set on tandems the way Jim wanted me to work races with him

[RichieP]

,,.

[RichieP]

..:)

[justin13892002]

Rich,

I am going to tackle this the best I can...

1.) P 24.6, 49.1
1A.) S 23.4, 46
2.) S 23.2, 46.1
3.) S 23.2, 45.9
4.) S 23.2, 46.1
5.) S 23.2, 45.4
6.) Has won E,P and S. 24, 48.7
7.) P 24, 48
8.) S 22.5, 44.8
9.) S 24.4, 48.4
10.) S, Too Slow
11.) P/S 23.6, 47.8
12.) P 23, 46.4
13.) S 23.2, 46.1
14.) EP 23.4, 46.7

I think the 14 will be up front, as well as the 6. This is based solely on running style. 6 is a versatile horse, but cant race against Faster fractions than a slow 24, 48.7. The 14 may end up setting the pace 23.4, 46.7, which is my projected paceline for this race.

The 14 has never actually gotten the lead, so the horse may just sit back a few lengths from the leader, whoever it may be. However, is getting slow 3rd fractions to help. So I will actually start by eliminating the 14.

The 13 is fresh to come with any 6F pace of 1:09 to 1:10 and change. This could be the horse, as that fraction (between 2nd and 3rd calls) will play a HUGE part in this race. The only other contender I can see based on this is the 11.

So looks like 11 and 13 are my Top Selections, and Win bets for this race.


Good Luck

[tfm]

This is a full field race and I typically wouldn't put too much time into it.;) And, as the meet is still early at WO, I'd ideally want something that has already run this year, at WO, rather than a layoff horse. Luckily, there's a 'stickout' in the race. #13, Mighty Fenian, made a HUGE premature move last out, into the fastest split of the race, and against the grain/setup. He adds 1/16th tonight and hopefully doesn't get the idiot trip again. Bet to win at 5:1 or >.

[raceman5]

I'll take the 12 -13

[Bill Lyster]

here goes...

Only the 7 ever lead at first qtr in 24.1 in a 7f race. That may turn out to be good enough today, but horse has never passed others.

Looks like the 8 Foxy Lion might be the FPLR having passes 3 horses while doing 21.8 and 44.3 25 days ago. Also has closed well against sub 45 2nd calls in the past.

1 - Only 7f a dud, rest are routes out
1A - S type that might close against today's pace; lost two tandems to the 8, out.
2 - S type that lost convincingly twice against the 13, OUT
3 - P/SP that can be close today; wins if time in mid 124. Use line 2
4 - SP, Use line 1; lost tandem vs 13
5 - Cant gain against 24.2 OUT
6 - OUT
7 - Could be pace setter, but never passes anyone, OUT
8 - Only one to close against sub 45 halves; use line 6 or 7
9 - Only routes, OUT
10 - Same, OUT
11 - Another pace hugger that has never passed anyone at this distance; won 3 of last 4 routes and 4 of last 5; probably a tightener for next time; routes splits are slow, but might charge late, but still OUT
12 - P should compete with this pace; faded in last against this pace; has good 7F record, but seems to run best second out at whatever track he runs at. I think last race is pretty predictive since he has been out 4 times in last 93 days. Not today.
13 - SP, beat the 4 and 2 in previous races; Use last line; had lead and faded.
14 - cant pass anyone, OUT

I would use the pace of race from the last race of the 13. He could have lead in mid 46 range and took lead in 110.5 before fading. Race will probably be slower today, but The Hat said that in paceless races horses that inherit the lead rarely win, especially if they have never do so before. I think the 8 runs by him late, but I would box the 8 and 13.

Good luck to you all,

[PeteC]

I'm going to follow the match-up guidelines for races without a horse who likes to take the lead. I may be off-base in this particualr race because there are horses who've taken the lead in routes. Richie, does this change the procedure outlined by Jim for races without a horse who takes the lead?

Anyway, I first look for the horse who is most likely to take the lead and I will eliminate him because he is running out of position. In this race I see #12 as that horse off his 2nd position at 1st call vs 23 46.2. I elimnate him and I'll project the pace as 23.1 46.0, which is similar to #12's line but from today's track.

Now I'll look for OTE runners vs that pace:

#1 slow router, only sprint was bad...OUT
#1A: Finsheda close third in route last time. Line 9 looks like the power line: 22.2 45.2 111.1 8-9-5-2...IN
#2 finished 4th against today's pace beaten by 2 foes in today's race...OUT
#3 a trivky call for me because the last race was poor against a slower pace but he has better lines down in the pp's. My gut says eliminate him, so will...OUT
#4 finished 3rd in the tandem race...IN for now
#5 looks slow...OUT
#6 won his last route but only sprints showing were poor. The 6f times in the route don't compare well with today's pace either so OUT
#7 same story as #6...OUT
#8 ran vs a very fast pace last time but looks like he basically went backwards. Improved positions 1c to 2c but I have the feeling it was a bunched field...OUT
#9 slow router...OUT
#10 ugly...OUT
#11 only good sprint was against a very slow pace...OUT
#12 threw him out already as the out of position pace setter.
#13 nice power move vs today's pace and he was the tandem best finisher. Also go down to line 10 vs an even faster pace on turf (which we can use on poly per Jim I believe) moving 9-8-2-1. IN

#14 only sprints were poor...OUT



So I'm down to 1A, 4 and 13. 13 was in front of 4 the whole way last time so I eliminate 4. I feel #13 will be in front of #1A most or all the way so I'll take #13 on top.

Good luck! And Rich if you can comment on whether Jim's instructions change when handling a race with routers who set the pace running with sprinters who don't take the lead that would be great.

Pete

[Bill Lyster]

1-6-8 have been scratched....

[TPace]

The previous posts are really well thought out and informative.

My thoughts on the pace differ, as do some of my true contenders.

The 6 may also vie for the lead, although the pace looks to be on the 23/46 range.

My true contenders are the 1A, 2, 3, and 8.

1A: can handle projected pace; has closed nicely at the distance three times.
2: can handle projected pace; nice move from 8th to 4th in last; seems primed for this.
3: can handle projected pace; competitive at distance/class (sorry about that one :).
8: can handle projected pace; nice closing style; great competitive races in sprints; last race against much faster pace looks like a work.

My final selections are the 8 and 3.

Thank you to Richie for posting this. These are the types of races that are usually left alone, but are the same types of races that are very lucrative. An excellent lesson again from Richie.

[tfm]

Now that I've had a chance to take a longer look at this race, here's my revised take:

#13 : his last race catches the eye but he's going longer today and he's really only run ONE good race in his history; and this was on the turf (6/11/09). While I typically play horses that makes these type of moves back, I just can't see this horse getting 7F.

#12: 7F is his distance and he's run 2 nice races at it. This is a new claim and Contreras is a premature moving idiot. He figures to get a nice trip.

#3: two nice races in his history: one at 6F and the other at 7F. Should also be in good position but ahead of the 12 early.

I'll probably take a 2 nbr exacta: 12 / 3, 13

[tleusin]

2 and 12

[RichieP]

Excellent hits by the Raceman and Tleusin !! :D

When I had looked at the race I didnt see any horse going for the lead as I dont count route "leaves" in a sprint. Jim wanted me comparing apples to apples but WOULD count a sprint early if today was a route. I dont remember him going the other way on that.

Thanks everyone for jumping in on this interesting matchup race.