6/17 -- All Over

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CD R1:

try to beat the heavy chalk here (#3), as there's really no value otherwise

exacta: 2 / 3

tri: 2 / 3, 6/ 3, 6

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That was a bad play. I bet too soon. The 2 and 6 were hit late and were slightly higher odds than the 3. The 2-3 exacta was paying $12 at post ($18 when I bet) and the 3-2 paid $11.

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BEL R2:

terrible group of, essentially, turf horses running on the dirt

don't know how the 5, Catchapenny K., a closing sprinter will handle the stretchout to 8F. But I think she's the best dirt horse in the race. Hopefully the jock won't have her too close early -- though there doesn't figure to be much pace in the race.

win @ >= 5:1

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Belmont - Race 1
# Win Place Show
3 $8.00 $4.20 $2.20
5 . $5.20 $2.50
1 . . $2.10


Looks like we're getting into that SECONDITIS mode, again, that we just love so much. :rolleyes:


CRC R1: exacta: 2 / 6

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Calder - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $8.00 $3.60 $2.80
5 . $4.40 $3.00
6 . . $2.80

The trend continues.

The 2 ran an incredible race when she broke her maiden going 6F, two races back. She checked severely at the gate, was gapped early, and made a huge late run to win going away in a race that didn't really come back. I thought she was a lock today (going 7F) but I couldn't take 3:1. the 2-6 was paying around 20:1. Next time.

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BEL R2:

exacta: 5 / 7

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CRC R2:

not a good idea to play these off the turfers but

exacta: 7 / 5

also think the 9, Spartan General (presently 30:1), has a shot, as he has a WIPEOUT win on dirt at GP, earlier in the year.

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WO R1:

another 5F race at WO -- these are excellent betting races, typically

tough race, with what appears to be quite a bit of speed

can make the case for a few here

I like the 1, coming off an angle of mine

exacta box: 1 / 3

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1st and 3rd again.

Woodbine T-bred - Race 1
# Win Place Show
3 $5.20 $3.80 $2.60
4 . $7.40 $4.20
1 . . $3.00

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CD R3:

two top juicers in the race, with 1st time off the claim runners

Brad Cox (#1) wins 40% 1st after claim
M Maker (#3) wins 30% 1st after claim

I like the 4, Mr. Influential, cutting back

tri: 4 / 1,3 / 1, 3

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Today's recurring theme: "should've bet to win" :rolleyes:

Churchill Downs - Race 4
# Win Place Show
4 $9.80 $4.20 $3.40
5 . $4.60 $3.60
3 . . $4.40

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CD R5:

excellent and interesting race

plenty of speed, should set up for an off the pace runner

#6, Miss Lotawata, showed speed going 6.5F two back and then hung going 5.5F last out, in a race that didn't come back. She figures to sit just off the pace and get a perfect setup

#8, Betty Bye, 2nd off the layoff, has an excellent against the grain race last year at CD for MDN $30k. If she repeats that race, she wins for fun

The 9 and 11 figure to be on the pace. Don't think they're 1st or 2nd.

I like the #2, Bottlepan, as my longshot; nice bid in a race that didn't come back last out. I need 15:1 to bet to win, however.

Let's try a super: 6, 8/ 6, 8/ 2,9,11/ 2,9,11

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WO R3:

Oh Look, it's that IDIOT Brian CHeyne again, on Sinker (#11). He gave me that nice PREMATURE move last out, getting the lead and fading to 3rd at 25:1. Why in the world do they ride him back?

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BEL R6:

Don't particularly like the heavy chalk (#8)

The 4, Silk Route, figures to improve. I also like the 6, Lucida.

Exacta: 4 / 6, 8

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Belmont - Race 6
# Win Place Show
4 $9.70 $3.60 $2.70
8 . $2.30 $2.10
3 . . $3.10


Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 4-8 $9.90

Ended up getting, essentially, the same odds as a win bet on the 4.

I'll take it and keep plugging along.


The 4 just might be OKAY. Put in an explosive late run when clear.

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CD R7:

hard to imagine the 9, Simple Words, losing this one. She set an insane pace going 6F last out, holding very well, and now cuts back 1/2 furlong.

win @ > = 2:1

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That's why Conditional Wagering comes in real handy.:rolleyes:

Loses a photo to Arnold's layoff (#5) that ran 2nd to Beautician 1st time out last year at CD.

Seriously: this was a pass, given the odds.

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CD R8:

should really stay out of this one but I have a hunch that the 5, Insider Tip, can beat these (and that there'll be pace in the race).

exacta: 5 / 3, 4

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(and that there'll be pace in the race).



Guess the turf sprinter (#8) didn't have the speed to contend in that dawdling pace, allowing the 2 to almost wire. :rolleyes:

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CRC R9:

I don't like the chalk (#10) here. And I think the extra 1/2 Furlong a few of these will have to go today will make a difference.

Tri: 7 / 6, 12/ 6, 10, 12

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Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 10-12 $9.90
$1.00 Trifecta 10-12-7 $20.40
$0.10 Superfecta 10-12-7-6 $4.09
$1.00 Double 2/10 $6.50


A case of not keying the correct horse and the prices not worth spreading more than I did.

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Liked Hold'em Tiger off the cutback in the 9th at CD. Got shut out @ 3:1. Just got up after lacking room in the stretch.
Have a least one of these a day, when playing all these tracks concurrently.

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BEL R9:

Like #6, First of Ten, a bit. But he doesn't really like to win; need 10:1 to bet to win (which I probably won't get).

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Another 2nd --- with a mild bit of trouble in the stretch.

But no bet as he went off @ 6:1.


Belmont - Race 9
# Win Place Show
10 $7.20 $4.30 $3.10
6 . $6.10 $4.60
7 . . $5.40

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WO R8:

terrible race, terrible bunch and a firster is the favorite in the HUGE favorite in the pick 3 will pays.

#15, Jaz Ryder, has shown the ability to do some running in many of his races, and the 6.5F should favor him. We need a pace collapse and a perfectly timed move. It's highly doubtful we'll get the latter with Betty Williams up. Which means we need >= 20:1 to bet.

The exacta under the firster favorite (#14) is paying over $100. This could be a way to go, as well.

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Terrible effort. 19:1 @ 0 minutes to post. No bet.

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No Hollywood today (and GG is done for the summer). Which means PID.

This is one RIDICULOUS track. One of the main problems is that Jamie Ness, the juicer, runs here and I just never know what to do with his horses. At least at TAM, you know when they get hit, they win. The same is not the case at PID.

R3:

Ness has the chalk (#2). The 1, has a HUGE fighter race, at the distance, when he broke his maiden two back. Next out he routed. So, he has to have a conditioning edge over horses that are 'stretching' to 6.5F. He's 8:1. I'll bet to win @ >= 10:1 and an exacta UNDER the juice horse, as well as an exacta box with the 6, Red Desert Angel, otherwise.

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That's about a good a read on a race as I can have. Maybe the fact that I'm ONLY playing PID presently, and not 5 other tracks, has something to do with it.

The 6 got blocked in the stretch and still was good enough to finish very nicely for 2nd. Not clear whether he gets the 1 if he has a clear rail run.

Cost me an extra number to cover my ass in case the JUICER fired but the exacta was decent (about a 5:1 return).

Presque Isle - Race 3
# Win Place Show
1 $10.00 $5.40 $3.80
6 . $3.20 $2.80
3 . . $3.00


Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 1-6 $38.80