"Pace Battle Races "/ Spot em / Work em /Win em

[RichieP]

In the thread on "Testing spec 150 and spand" you will see that in the 10th race at CT I have marked in BIG letters on top of the 10th Race "Pace Battle Race" and "watch the # 8 12/1 ml" . The 8 did win that race paying $ 12 bucks which was a bit short. Someone tapped into him pretty damn good ha? :D

Ok what the hell did I mean by that comment? Here is the skinny.

Let's take that race and work it using Val 3 please. We will cover it from a-z showing each horse's pp's the lines used the UNIQUE way of both hiding and identifying wagers and last but not least using the "Scatter" exacta to take even more CASH outa the race.

It all comes together very very nicely and I dont feel it is a redboard since I both identified the race AND the winner appx 3 hours before the race ran ok?

So lemme go grab some quick chow and then I will be back and will show you how to toally HAMMER this race into submission.

fwiw I have outlined the following EXACT steps MONTHS ago to a poster here. What you will see is NOT something created to hit THIS particular race.

Back in a few
Richie

[RichieP]

OK first step is to pick pacelines NORMALLY don't go looking for anything
Let it FIND US for ME I pick lines highest SR last 3 races 98% of the time

here is horse 1 with the paceline used marked Track condition is fast and there is a lovely moon out :eek:

[RichieP]

horse 2 paceline choice

[RichieP]

horse 3 paceline choice

[RichieP]

horse 4 paceline choice

[RichieP]

horse 5 paceline choice

[RichieP]

horse 6 paceline choice

[RichieP]

horse 7 paceline choice

[RichieP]

horse 8 paceline choice

[RichieP]

last horse # 9 paceline choice

[RichieP]

ok now here is where procedure changes a bit

we hit calculations as normal BUT lets stop at the screen that pops up BEFORE continuing on please

what we are looking for is a MINIMUM of THREE need to lead horses at the distance structure at the FIRST and SECOND calls. That "trigger sends us into the following steps. In THIS race I see FOUR pure need to lead types starting at the 1c at this distance structure 2-3-5-6 in addition the 1 appears pure early type moving to the lead at 2c in addition the # 7 is showing need to lead in his route extraction. There is NO doubt there will be a "Pace Battle" early in this race .

of the 9 horses in the race only TWO are not moving to the lead at 2c the 8 and 9 lets remember them as I put the screen shot up please

here it is

[RichieP]

ok for this race type ONLY:

lets hide the "off the 2c" guys 8 and 9 now they will be brought back AFTER we determine who are the BEST or SURVIVORS among the need to lead guys for the remaing horses we are gonna keep as a final contender the horse with the # 1 ranking in the following THREE categories

1) TOTAL ENERGY - logical simply the fastest of the earlies
2) TOP EPR - The best of the earlies to the 2c
3) TOP L/EP - found on the energy generator screen - the best LATE of the earlies factoring in total energy ( a component of l/ep)

ok so among our earlies in the race ( remember we bring the 8 and 9 back after this) here is the screen shot of the primary factors screen

we see the # 1 horse is BOTH top total energy AND EPR so he is in

[RichieP]

now moving to the en gen to find our BEST L/EP guy among the earlies we see it is the # 7 ..

ok so our contenders among the earlies are the 1 and 7

lets hide ALL the other earlies and bring back the 8 and 9 now

so our FINAL contenders are the 1,7,8,9

here is en gen showing the 7 as best l/ep

[RichieP]

now we want to BET the horses that remain as contenders who are the FARTHEST out from the lead on the "SCBL" screen this is a bit of a "positional" stance in this race type

here is the screen shot SCBL clearly is showing our BETS as the 7 and the 8 POSITIONALLY the next screen we will blend this positioning with some velocity / energy data for added confidence in wagering and also possible exacta wagers including the "Scatter" ;)

bl/bl showing 7 and 8 as farthest out at SCBL

[RichieP]

ok my KEY to added wager confidence is to have these 2 "Positional" BETS the 7 and 8 in this case ALSO be the TOP 2 in L/EP among the 4 remaining contenders lets see the en gen screen to see

turns out they are !

[RichieP]

ok this last step has TRIGGERED me to fire in this race on ALL fronts

btw we were able in THIS race to reduce to FOUR contenders METHODICALLY right? primarily cause the # 1 is BOTH top TE AND top 2c.


so if we are making confident winbets on the 7 and 8 that leaves us only 2 horses remaining correct? the 1 and 9 Guess what??

HELLO SCATTER EXACTA 78/ 19 our 2 win bets over the 2 remaining contenders WHEN we can positively reduce to FOUR contenders

WIN BETS 7 8
EXACTA "Scatter" 7 8 / 1 9

if u care to check the results it is quite a score to be made especially if u are someone like a Charlie who pounds away at trifectas too!

winner # 8 - $ 12.20
place - # 1 Exacta 8-1 =$ 98.80
show - # 9 Trifecta 8-1-9 $ 1,026.00

See if it can work for you. If not "kick it to the curb"

Richie Pizzicara

[MIKE]

Great job Richie!!!!!

---really appreciate it.

[shoeless]

Richie,On Alaska Ash you went down to the 3rd back a distance race and today was a 7 fur event why not use a 7 fur paceline instead.By the way the reason he was bet down the track was listed as sloppy and if you went back into his pp's he had won a slop race by 14 lenghts.Jeff

[alydar_ David]

Very creatvie, Richie!

:>)

[RichieP]

Great job Richie!!!!!

---really appreciate it.

I hope it can work for you Mike!

WAIT for everything to be SO easy just like the working of this race ok? ANY doubts or feeling that the race u are looking at MIGHT not be right PASS PASS PASS

when it ALL comes together EFFORTLESSLY thats when you fire man!

Rich

[RichieP]

Richie,On Alaska Ash you went down to the 3rd back a distance race and today was a 7 fur event why not use a 7 fur paceline instead.By the way the reason he was bet down the track was listed as sloppy and if you went back into his pp's he had won a slop race by 14 lenghts.Jeff

It's my opinion Jeff that a route is very comparable to a 7f race even though its around 2 turns so that line 3 for ME is best of last 3 comparable

I am also VERY RARELY going past line 3 in the last 2 months.

thanx for the info about the off track now the betting makes some sense!
Richie

[RichieP]

Very creatvie, Richie!

:>)

maybe too much time on my hands matey :D lmao!

Rich

[RichieP]

in post 15 in this thread I originally said "top 3 l/ep" for added wager confidence


it SHOULD read " top 2"


I edited that post to correct it

Rich

[RichieP]

Today at Beulah let's work the 6th race. It has NOT run yet.

the # 4 is scratched
first the pacelines:

horse 1

[RichieP]

horse 2 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 3 paceline

[RichieP]

the 4 is scratched

horse 5 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 6 has 2 76 speed ratings as u see I simply hit f6 which piks line 2 so line 2 it is

paceline

[RichieP]

horse 7 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 8 paceline

[RichieP]

lastly horse 9 paceline

[RichieP]

hitting calc and stopping we see the 2-7-8 as on the lead at BOTH 1c and 2c velocities look close so I would definitly work this race as a "battle" and see what shakes out


screen shot

[RichieP]

so the 2-7-8 are the earlies I will hide everyone else for now bring em back later after we see who is best here ok?

top tot energy - 7
top epr - 7
top l/ep - 7

as we see by the next 2 screen shots showing primary and en gen the # 7 is the DOMINANT early

here is primary

[RichieP]

now the en gen showing the 7 as best l/ep

[RichieP]

ok so the 2 and 8 are hidden now as the early matchup losers with the 7 the clear winner

lets bring back the "others" now and include the 7


bl/bl shows the 3 and 9 as the bets being furthest out from the battle up front

screen shot

[RichieP]

switching from postional to energy/velocity we go to the en gen screen looking for our 9 and 3 to be ranked top 2 in l/ep

looking I see they are ranked 1 and 2 respectively


I have my bets here no question

Win Bets 9 and 3

NO exactas of any kind just look at the mess on bl/bl doesnt look like that CT race at all does it????

so I will make my win bets and move on dont wanna force anything

"Capeet" ?

Richie

[MIKE]

Richie

You da Man!!!!!

[MIKE]

I hope you really nailed him at the windows!!!!


Great handicapping!!

[RichieP]

Richie

You da Man!!!!!

Thanx Mike.

Our 3 wins at 20/1 yes 20/1 and pays $ 42.60

"Cha Ching" :eek:

Richie

[Binder]

Rich a great big High Five to you

wow He had energy "'':)

[RichieP]

Rich a great big High Five to you

wow He had energy "'':)

Bill
DEEP in the stretch he got vicious.

He had a bit of "freak" in him :D

btw nice pop on that winner of the big SA race yesterday buddy! Keep focused on your contest.


Richie
"She's a super freak" - Rick James

[Chip Napolitano]

Wow !
Cn

[Baum]

Hey bill finally I got to the board

[cprescigno]

Great pace analysis Rich. And we see this match up about once every three to five race cards. If you are there when it happens it's a nice score, and since you are not dealing with an early horse it's always a nice overlay. Those early horses that collapse at the pace pressure are carrying all of the public's money on their backs.
This could have come out of Brohamer's Book. You sure you weren't a ghost writer for that one Rich??
You are right Rich, I would be looking to bang this Trifecta, and be looking for the Superfecta if there were one. Those are the bets you want to catch with some money on them. Nothing major but a few $5 Superfectas will work great here. A few $10 Trifectas are nice also. I don't hit them for those amounts normally but when the pace looks like this they are really strong bets. The bulk of the bet still goes on the Win/Exacta but if the Tri or Super hit it's like hitting 10 winners for nice prices.

Charlie

[RichieP]

Hey bill finally I got to the board

Hey Raul!

What's up man? Great you signed up here. I hear you did real well couple of weeks back with Bill at the track buddy. Way to go:) Sorry I couldn't get out there that day. I was with this kool chick up the block and before u know
it silk scarves came out and ...... umm lemme stop here :eek:

Hope you and the Mrs. are doing great!

Stay cool
Richie

[RichieP]

Couple of things please:

1) after I get my "positional bets" from the bl/bl screen I insist they must also be top 2 l/ep. ok if they are NOT and I mean BOTH of them I PASS the race. If one is and the other is NOT I do NOT bet the one horse that is. I PASS the race. When I bet these "Battle" races I NEED it ALL to come together. PATIENCE


2) 5f pacelines are the killer of readouts with the Sartin programs. They will screw up your readouts every time and I STRONGLY suggest you avoid using them like the plague man. Go back to testerday's Beu race and for the 6 horse we used the f6 on put that other 76 speedrating in from the top line. It is a win line from 5f. Watch what happens to the readouts. You wind up betting on a horse that ran stone dead last and lose the 20/1 winner. I would NOT have used that line even if f6 picked it. 5f pacelines are the KISS OF DEATH . You have been warned.

3) the overall or historical running styles of the horses means NOTHING in working the races as I have laid out. The ONLY thing that matters is his style in the paceline you are using. That matters ONLY in identifying the battle race.

Once you have worked the race in "battle mode" and u get to the scbl "positional" part if the horse( s) you are betting turn out to be one who has a need to lead style where "conventional" pace analysis says "he cant get the lead so throw himout" BET the horse. If he matches on both
1- furthest out positionally on scbl
2- top 2 l/ep
BET THE HORSE TRUST ME BET THE HORSE


4) PATIENCE - Charlie is just about dead on when he says u might get ONE play every few cards. To be HONEST because I DEMAND everything be right for ME it is even less than that. Good things will come to you if you can WAIT on this ok?

safe day and good skill at the windows

Richie

[tompkins]

3) the overall or historical running styles of the horses means NOTHING in working the races as I have laid out. The ONLY thing that matters is his style in the paceline you are using. That matters ONLY in identifying the battle race.

strange observation which takes away from the NATURAL ability of the particular horse at adaptation. Many can change styles in reponse to pace pressure, many cannot. Blanket statement is a bit too inclusive

[cprescigno]

Rich,

Once again, that was two really great workups. Though they don't come up often, if you are there when they do and can recognize the conditions it's a real nice score on a solid bet. The only way the public hits these is when they pick the color of the jockeys socks so even a win only bet pays nicely.

Couple of questions
1. Does it matter whether the race is a route or a sprint?
2. How much does field size have to do with it?
3. Why at least 3 NTL horses. Will this work with 2 in a small field?

I have seen this matchup many times. Unfortunately until now I was only able to identify the conditions after the race went off. They always result in nice payouts. I have missed some really nice exactas because I failed to identify this Pace battle race. Maybe I'll get better at recognizing them now. If not I'll be back with 20 more questions!

Charlie

[RichieP]

strange observation which takes away from the NATURAL ability of the particular horse at adaptation. Many can change styles in reponse to pace pressure, many cannot. Blanket statement is a bit too inclusive

It is absoultely strange. Makes no "sense". can't do that. etc etc. ok.

I want NO part of natural anything.

I got a bit of "freak" in me to be honest.

here are the pp's from that 42 dollar winner yesterday he does NOT show even ONE line where he made a gain positionally in any race "conventional" or NATURAL thinking says " he wins wire to wire cant get the lead today OUT" . Yet in yesterday's race he closed like a runaway freight train :eek:

Thank you "common sense public" !!

My RECORDS of the method I posted are complete and cover NUMEROUS tracks for over 7 months now.

to each his own

Richie

[RichieP]

Couple of questions
1. Does it matter whether the race is a route or a sprint?
2. How much does field size have to do with it?
3. Why at least 3 NTL horses. Will this work with 2 in a small field?

Charlie


Charlie


1) absolutely NOT 5.5f thru 9f dirt and turf

2) NOTHING

3) THREE are needed otherwise way too many races come ino play

Richie

[RichieP]

The "Battle" is on !

horse 1 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 2 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 3 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 4 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 5 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 6 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 7 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 8 paceline

[RichieP]

calc and stopping we see a scramble to the 1c and 2c

ONLY horses NOT involved are the 5 and 8

[RichieP]

removing the 5 and 8 ( brought back later) lets "matchup" the earlies man

top te - 2

top epr - 2

top l/ep - 4

[RichieP]

screen shot showing the 4 as best l/ep

[RichieP]

the 2 and 4 are the winners "early" the 5 and 8 are brought back now

FINAL contenders 2-4-5-8

bl/bl showing these contenders with the # 4 and # 8 as the BETS postionally according to scbl

[RichieP]

can I get my CONFIRMATION to fire on the 4 and 8?
YES they are ranked 1 and 2 l/ep

screen shot

[RichieP]

Everything in this race has just fallen in my lap. In addition because there are only 4 contenders left the "Scatter" exacta is also in play

4,8 / 2,5

Win Bets 4 and 8

PLEASE let this race remain intact with NO scratches. PLEASE

Look I am not afraid to lose a race publicly ok? I am pounding the **** out of this race man no BS

PLEASE let this race remain intact

safe weekend
Rich

[shoeless]

Richie,If that race is from Penn you may be out of luck,they are predicting 8-12 inches up this way starting this afternoon.Jeff

[cprescigno]

That might just qualify as a Scratch. Hopefully this snow misses us??????

Charlie

[cprescigno]

The latest prediction is for the snow to hit us here in NY at about midnight. Hopefully it won't hit PA much earlier than that so this race looks like it should go off before any significant snow hits PA. Just keep your fingers crossed and with a little luck the race goes of without a hitch. Keep your legs and eyes crossed and maybe we hit this one nice.

Charlie

[tompkins]

screen shot showing the 4 as best l/ep
correct me if I'm wrong but putting in just about ANY extracted line in a sprint scenario will give that data a big late advantage. The majority of routes, from almost any animal, due the very different nature of energy distribution, will skew the readings in that direction. Just try it.

[RichieP]

correct me if I'm wrong but putting in just about ANY extracted line in a sprint scenario will give that data a big late advantage. The majority of routes, from almost any animal, due the very different nature of energy distribution, will skew the readings in that direction. Just try it.

100% correct.

EXACTLY what I am looking for in THIS race type.
Rich

[tompkins]

100% correct.

EXACTLY what I am looking for in THIS race type.
Rich
if you compared actualy sprint lines from this same animal, it projects it to go up and battle the front and even from those lines, this one might be questionable. Using a single ROUTE projection to superimpose that ONE line on this horse's NORMAL sprint energy distribution is a bit odd. With this kind of trend in total energy?? strange when you view the total energy of the others. I was always under the impression that when an animal is OVERCOMING the style at a certain distance (contra) that is HAS TO HAVE A TOTAL ENERGY SURPLUS to do that.

[shoeless]

I live about 2 hours from PA and it's already started here.CT has cancelled tonight's card .Jeff

[RichieP]

if you compared actualy sprint lines from this same animal, it projects it to go up and battle the front and even from those lines, this one might be questionable. Using a single ROUTE projection to superimpose that ONE line on this horse's NORMAL sprint energy distribution is a bit odd. With this kind of trend in total energy?? strange when you view the total energy of the others. I was always under the impression that when an animal is OVERCOMING the style at a certain distance (contra) that is HAS TO HAVE A TOTAL ENERGY SURPLUS to do that.

There you go again. Thinking "logically". It's ok. Most everyone else is too!

All the stuff you write about might have been valid in the 1990's. NOT today baby.

You fail to understand that when I tell you none of this matters I mean what I say Tim.

It's the "FREAK" in me.

I dont want to go back and forth with you ok? I keep telling you its all good. I will let the PRE RACE selections speak for themselves. Everything else is just TALK anyway.

so far I have posted 2 races using this method BEFORE the race ran

2 winners

1 at CT $ 12.20 - btw that was an xtracted horse
1 at Beu $ 42.60 - a horse who defies all LOGIC and common sense capping


Tonight is race 3

Richie

[tompkins]

T
1 at Beu $ 42.60 - a horse who defies all LOGIC and common sense capping


the Beulah horse was a logical progression of three lines improving......only suprise there was the price

[tompkins]

the Beulah horse was a logical progression of three lines improving......only suprise there was the price
IMPROVING early is one of the hallmarks of handicapping, being progressively able to contend further into contests

[tompkins]

T
All the stuff you write about might have been valid in the 1990's. NOT today baby.

when did horesracing fundamentally change? THE LATEST HOT BOOK from the DRF press, by a well respected author Klein is called "The Power of Early."

Did someone discover a new way to run? Energy distributions have changed? Sprinters don't win the majority of races at or near the front end? Routers don't run and win as sustained pressers anymore?

Exercise physiology is the same today as it has been since the first person ran away from a predator. Huey Mahl's work on energy (the hallmark of what we are ALL discussing here by the way) is not different. I would wager that if you took a classic race, and ran the lines back years and years through a program like ENGEN, you would find the vast majority of them ran the same way energy wise.

What is so different?

[RichieP]

IMPROVING early is one of the hallmarks of handicapping, being progressively able to contend further into contests

ummmm thats not the winner. Wrong horse. Winner is the 3 at 20/1

unreal only you can take a thread based on looking late and infuse Klein and the power of early. Please.

[tompkins]

ummmm thats not the winner. Wrong horse. Winner is the 3 at 20/1

unreal only you can take a thread based on looking late and infuse Klein and the power of early. Please.
that must be why it did not make sense.

The latter comment relates to the fact of the fundamental nature of most contests

[tompkins]

IF that Penn National race even goes, considering the bad weather predictions (which OFTEN makes one change their perspectives) horses off the pace are going to have an even MORE difficult time with those inclement conditions. The Clean Silks Syndrome is usually a big factor on extremely off going is it not?

Doesn't have the total energy to overcome the style and now the weather is a new obstacle......

I am searching, so far in vain, to try to understand here, but cannot get around what the pp lines are saying.

[RichieP]

the 7 is the winner at 5/1

I ran 2nd with the 8 at 8/1 couldnt get him late

the 1/2 # 2 was non factor as was my 2nd bet the 4

I lost my win bets plus the exacta

ok

Richie

[shoeless]

At least the 8 gave you a run for the cash only lost by 3\4.More importantly you shed some more light on the subject matter.Jeff

[RichieP]

Today GP race 1

horse 1 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 2 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 3 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 4 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 5 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 6 paceline

[RichieP]

hitting calc and stopping we see that everyone except the 4 is on lead 1c and 2c

[RichieP]

removing the 4 here are 2 screen shots showing the # 5 as best Tot En AND Epr

2nd screen shot shows the 6 as best "L/ep"

[RichieP]

En Gen showing 6 best l/ep

so the winners of "early" matchup are 5 and 6

[RichieP]

final contenders are the 5,6 and 4 who we bring back now

here is bl/bl showing 5 and 6 furthest out on scbl

they will be the bets if they are BOTH ranked 1 and 2 L/ep on next screen

[RichieP]

En Gen screen showing they BOTH are ranked 1 and 2 l/ep so there we go


Win Bets 5 and 6

Exacta 5,6 / 4,5,6

Rich

[RichieP]

they just announced TWO scratches leaving 4 horses to run

PASS

they should really close this glorified DUMP of a track :p

Tampa is TONS better

[RichieP]

here is a good one let's see if we can score :)

The 1 P.O.E. and the 7 are scratched

Lrl race 5

[RichieP]

after getting to the calc part the scbl guys BOTH did not rank 1-2 in l/ep so its a no go


I deleted all the paceline shot posts Bill if u are seeing them deleted ok?

back to the races

Rich

[RichieP]

ok using just a bit of cappin the pacelines there is a potential for a huge score today at Tampa. Stakes race at a route for just turned 3 year olds so u know these guys are all jacked up looking to go EARLY :eek:


"Tamuska"


horse 1 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 2 paceline not using last line as he was toubled

[RichieP]

horse 3 sticking with fast track line

[RichieP]

horse 4 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 5 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 6 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 7 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 8 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 9 ok see that GR1 race in his 2nd life start?? come on lets ignore that line and shoot to line 4 please ok/ see the speed in that line and his last 2 also? ok

line 4

[RichieP]

horse 10 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 11 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 12 paceline

[RichieP]

ok I am pressed for time as I have to run to the store and get back for the start of the Tampa card ok?

I have done all the steps like before and this is the resulting bl/bl screen showing the 1 and 7 as furthest out at SCBL

they are 6/1 ML and 20/1 ML respectively

[RichieP]

ok to make win bets I need the 1 and 7 to BOTH be the top ranked l/ep guys on En Gen are they?/


YES

Win Bets 1 and 7

gotta run! :)
Rich

[MIKE]

Big odds Richie

Bring em home!!

[RichieP]

the 1 and 7 are NEVER in the race. Big fav # 6 wins

lose my win bets

Richie