Early/Late 2.0 at Gulfstream (April 2)

[Ted Craven]

Working out some (more, sigh) bugs from RDSS 2.0, and looking at the new Early/Late 2.0 module - a completely automated process - for evaluating tendency and relative ability to run Early versus Late. It got the winner in the Top 4, plus a few Exactas and Tri's of 9 of 10 playable races at Gulfsteam today (excepting the 6th and 8th races with many FTS). I think the single 5th race run-out was due to a coding error on my part.

Let me clarify, and give complete credit where credit is due - this module is an implementation of Dave Schwartz' NewPace concept (with Dave's permission), together with a few RDSS twists. For those of you who may have been following his discussion on that at PaceAdvantage.com, or who want to know more about the conceptual underpinnings, here is a link to his product page: http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/products-page/ In the RDSS 2.0 documentation and videos, I'll describe this in a bit of detail, but I would highly recommend you buy Dave's video, go through it once, then use the upcoming E/L 2.0 readout here as another tool in the box.

NewPace is NOT a negation in any way of what we know of The Matchup, or any other Sartin energy distribution concepts - in fact, in my opinion so far, NewPace is enhanced by integrating better measurements of Early and Late energy disbursement readouts. For right now, any differences between the following readouts and what you might get working NP according to the videos are due to using numbers from TrackMaster (e.g. versus DRF or HDW), plus my own coding errors or misunderstandings.

Regardless, interesting consistency, especially for exotic wagering. Plus it gets even better when you add in a few common analyses we do in our sleep to throw out a horse here and there. There were a reasonable number of shorter prices today, though including a few $8.00 + mutuels and a few double digits. Here is a link to the Equibase charts: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP040211USA.html

Pay attention to the right-most E/L column. (Note: these readouts will almost certainly change before final release).

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[Ted Craven]

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[Ted Craven]

I have to thank everyone for being so patient (OK, some not so patient ;) - but I take that as encouragement) in this RDSS 2.0 progress. I am trying to get enough minor things completed and tested during this coming week to both make an initial video tour, and to hand it off to 2 or 3 of you who have asked for some early mistreatment (I mean, pre-Beta testing :eek:). The rest of you who have volunteered to test - you would not want this week's version, but a proper round 1 Beta version should be available in May.

I will be in California for a few weeks beginning April 11, and programming is going to slow a bit during that period. I'll still be doing emails, postings and support (and some betting...)

cheers,

Ted

[cdax]

Terrific addition to the new release.

I got Dave's videos last week and have been trying to speed up my New Pace handicapping. As of right now I'm entering info into Dave's Excel sheets (with a few modifications) and after a 10 race card I get alittle bug-eyed.

Love the New Pace screenshots. I see it notes the swing horse and am wondering what the little superscripted number next to the accumulating totals in the % E/L column.

Thanks for all your hard work and can't wait for this release.

Chris

[SilentRun]

Ted,

What is the significance of the blue and red colors in the E/L column ?

Ernie

[cdax]

They signify the 2 early horses and 2 late horses, using Dave Schwatz' system.

[Ted Craven]

I see it notes the swing horse and am wondering what the little superscripted number next to the accumulating totals in the % E/L column.

That is the percentage of the top 2 Early horses (VISUALLY) owned by the Top Early horse. Or, how dominant is the Top Early horse. 62%+ is considered dominant and we must respect this horse even if it has lower final time speed ratings. This would be somewhat analogous to a horse on the Segments screen having the 0.0's (RED) for the first 2 calls.

The lower the %, the more early pressure it faces from other Early horses. The more Early horses there are, each having a minor percentage of the early pressure (e.g. 18-25%), the more pressured the Earlies are, and we might do a further analysis of the Lates (OTE's). As I understand it...

Ted

[SilentRun]

Ted,

These are excellent results for an automated process the profit potential is exciting. The correlation between current RDSS and RDSS 2.0 using NP is very
high... I would estimate about 80-85%. I ran 6 races through RDSS and compared the E/L designations to 2.0. Given the differences that were mentioned..i.e TM vs DRF/HDW plus conceptual gaps..the E/L is very positive.
Race 1 below is an example.

RDSS 2.0 (NP) shows Early: 2 and 7...Late: 8 and 9
RDSS current (below) shows Early: 2, 7, 9....Late: 8

There is obviously a big E/L difference in the 9 horse between the 2 versions of RDSS. I just ordered NP Videos from D. Schwartz so I can understand the concepts. In the interim can you say the difference in this case is due to the points mentioned above ?


Ernie

[raceman5]

i also use new pace myself and the results have been excellent, but it is very tedious, takes 10 to 15 min to do a race, but i can see ted is incorporating it into rdss and i will definitly be back on the band wagon, excellent job ted as this is a real time saver.

Bob

[socantra]

The correlation between current RDSS and RDSS 2.0 using NP is very
high... I would estimate about 80-85%. I ran 6 races through RDSS and compared the E/L designations to 2.0. Given the differences that were mentioned..i.e TM vs DRF/HDW plus conceptual gaps..the E/L is very positive.
Race 1 below is an example.

RDSS 2.0 (NP) shows Early: 2 and 7...Late: 8 and 9
RDSS current (below) shows Early: 2, 7, 9....Late: 8

There is obviously a big E/L difference in the 9 horse between the 2 versions of RDSS. I just ordered NP Videos from D. Schwartz so I can understand the concepts. In the interim can you say the difference in this case is due to the points mentioned above ?


The biggest difference is that early/late designations in the "New Pace" material are not dependent on the individual pacelines selected by the user but on all the races showing in the past performances. It should provide another, hopefully complimentary point of view.

Dick...

[SilentRun]

The biggest difference is that early/late designations in the "New Pace" material are not dependent on the individual pacelines selected by the user but on all the races showing in the past performances. It should provide another, hopefully complimentary point of view.

Dick...

OK..thank you...my ignorance of "New Pace" will soon be amended after I educate myself with the materials.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Someone wrote me:In the GP races you put up with the E/L module the 3rd race had a listed POR of 91 and race 11 had a POR of 92 when neither of their related to any of the top early horses. In one or perhaps both cases the number was not the high of any horse still in the race. Is this because scratched horses had those PORs associated with them? Would your printouts have changed materially if the numbers shown as POR were changed?
In GP3 (Apr 2), you're correct that the POR is misstated, the 91 figure belonging to the scratched #6 horse as shown below. The program should have recalculated the POR to 83 (belonging to #7 Neat Lightning). The reasoning here is that the #3 has such a dominant Lo SR (101), 12 or more points better than the next rated Early, and will NOT run to that high number as no one will push him to run that fast. Thus the anticipated POR will be slower: we take the next rated Early's Hi SR, which before scratches was the 91 belonging to the #6. With the #6 (and #2) scratched, the next highest Early's Hi SR is the 83 belonging to the #7. The POR should have been 83, and the 2 Early horses would still have been the #3 and #7.

The #3 is what Dave terms a 'Monster' (hence the little M next to the Hi), with a Hi SR 10+ points greater than the next highest Hi. Watch out for these - tough to bet against, though he proposes some guidelines for inclusion in exotics. #3 won handily despite being mugged out of the gate.

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In GP11, the POR was the 92 Hi SR of the #2 and not the 94 Lo of the #7 because the #7s Lo SR is 12+ points better than the #2's 82 Lo, and the #7 will not have to run that fast - the POR will not be 94. So we project a slower POR (92) using the Hi SR of the next rated Early, which is the #2.

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[Ted Craven]

I don't know that I have grasped this method of Early/Late analysis any better than anyone else who is studying it. I am facilitating my education by writing a program and learning while implementing it (it's what I tend to do...). After doing it a few hundred times, and getting folks to point out errors or improvements, I learn a little :)

I still can't get my ears around using a final time Speed Rating and calling it 'POR - Pace of Race'. I don't hold it against Dave, as the overall concepts have value, IMO, but I would like to work on that nomenclature. Pace of Race, to me, is what a horse has to set or run against in the 1st and 2nd fractions and to the 2nd call.

Not to quibble, though...

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Someone also asked if I thought they should buy just Dave's Early/Late product or BOTH the E/L and the Improve/Decline Forum product.

The Improve/Decline will also make an appearance in RDSS 2.0, in one form or another. For those interested in the theoretical ideas, the measurement process, the notions of 'campaign theory' and how he measures form cycle and identifies contenders qualified on Form - I say buy them both. Give Dave his due for good ideas, then use RDSS 2.0 (and your brain) to do the work. Life is too short (and good mutuels still lurking) to be fooling with all these numbers...

I've had comments from a few RDSS users who are implementing Improve/Decline with some good success. I have not had nearly the time to study those ideas, so I can't comment first hand. The measuring system is similar to NewPace, i.e. based on ideas presented in the book 'How to Measure Anything' by Douglas Hubbard, found in the Sartin Methodology bookstore, here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7097

Ted

[Houndog]

Ted I think incorporating NP in RDSS is a great idea. I have also purchased the NP and Improve/Decline from Dave Schwartz and I find that both products to be excellent tools to add to one's handicapping arsenal.

As another poster said working races manually with the NP concepts can be quite time consuming (for me anyway) and it seems you have automated much of the process.

Ted as you stated before Dave Schwartz's NP concepts in no way negates the work of Doc Sartin, Jim Bradshaw's "Match-UP" concepts, and other teaching members of the Sartin Methodology.

I wish you much success moving forward with RDSS 2.0

Regards-----Mike "Houndog"

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

Thanks! It's a fine balancing act, between new ways of looking at things and 'too much or too many different kinds of information'. I don't think an accomplished Matcher has much to fret over NP. I think we have great ways of knowing the relative merits of Earlies, for which NP (or E/L 2.0 whatever) is yet a 'blunt instrument'. These are early days, for both RDSS2 and for NewPace, but I believe in the fullness of time, folks will use the tools that suit their temperament and learning style, and which make the best returns for them. There is no standing still. I want to be able to work 40 races a day and not turn into a zombie - not just 5 races a day.

I actually think we can improve on what is currently presented in Dave's NewPace, and am looking forward to study and commentary by all.

Just a note, and I'll elaborate elsewhere - Dave Schwartz wants to extend a discount offer for both NewPace and Improve/Decline (Form Cycle Analysis) to RDSS users. If anyone is thinking of buying those products from him, either wait a day or 2 for a coupon, or buy now and inform Dave if you are currently a RDSS user (or at least a previous user, and hopefully a future one :)). You'll get a few dollars off, and possibly a deal on your next RDSS subscription. (Just working this out, right now).

Mike, looking forward to your input, as always!

cheers,

Ted