Live Race / Focus on these races / Contender selection easy as 1-2-3

[RichieP]

How many times have we worked races and after entering lines for like 10 horses for example we see things like this on the "hide screen"

horse # 1 tot en - 1 ls - 7
horse # 2 tot en - 7 ls - 2
horse # 3 tot en - 3 ls - 9
horse # 4 tot en - 6 ls - 1


do you see my point here? In races like this where it is BRUTAL to even begin hiding how the hell can we be expected to win our fair share of them? I am being dead serious.

There IS another way. All it involves is PATIENCE. Please let me show you on a live race.

[RichieP]

I am going to put up screen shots of the paceline screen for all 10 horses entered.

As you will see only 5 horses have pacelines chosen. As you peruse :eek: each horse note the speed ratings of the horses with pacelines marked ok? WRITE them down for this please.

ok after you have done this for the horses with lines chosen go back and LOOK at the other horses and their speed ratings at this distance STRUCTURE.

Let's go

horse # 1

[RichieP]

horse 2 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 3 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 4 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 5 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 6 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 7 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 8 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 9 paceline

[RichieP]

horse 10 paceline

[RichieP]

Ok that is the field of 10. The 5 horses with lines selected have these things in common:

1) best of last 3 comparable ( dist STRUCTURE)
2) Beaten lenghts finish 7.5 or less
3) ALL have speed ratings in the 90's

LOOK at the remaining horses. NOBODY is even close speed rating wise to these 5 guys. The LOW among our contenders is a 93.

With NO work we have our 5 contenders. NO hiding, machinations, judgement calls etc are needed in THIS race type.

Remember Doc in the followup stressing the "Range" of speed ratings as far as contender selection? Well HERE it is in spades baby.

How many people have the patience to wait for races that make sense? How many people really want to win? How many people are really just PLAYING around?

here is the early late graph

[RichieP]

v/dc screen

[RichieP]

bl/bl screen

[Rverge]

Richiep
here is my bl/bl from spec. the sr are lower. spec was on today at TAM.
hit the dd. there today. no brainer though.
john

[admin]

the first part of your post about the total energy / Primary
line score had me thinking. For me a race like that say PASS :eek:
the mnr race you demonstrated is a real interesting race
I really am having trouble picking 2 win bets
I will wait for odds to see if I can catch the winner

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=admin]the first part of your post about the total energy / Primary
line score had me thinking. For me a race like that say PASS :eek:

YES I agree totally Bill

[RichieP]

the mnr race you demonstrated is a real interesting race
I really am having trouble picking 2 win bets
I will wait for odds to see if I can catch the winner

ok Your Binder method gets a little "tick" on that Philly shipper BOMB in tier 4 bl/bl. BUT I know you prefer these guys jump up to 1 or 2 v/dc -R.

e/l graph looks interesting for sure.

[RichieP]

Richiep
here is my bl/bl from spec. the sr are lower. spec was on today at TAM.
hit the dd. there today. no brainer though.
john

Hi John
Good work at Tampa today!

yes the speed ratings are lower. It's all good though. not sure of your wagering style BUT looks like u have a nice "low odds" bet in your tier 1 guy. Then the bombs appear in tiers 2 and 3 for your 2nd bet( assuming 2 horses are bet to win) ok thats great.

only way to even consider the 1 is if the track is completely biased early OR you keep records or models and they show EPR is dominating at this track and distance.

Interesting race for sure.

Richie

[partsnut]

Ritchie, I believe you are right on track using the competive speed range.
I used Pace Appraiser on this race and I also took into consideration the recency factor. This is what I came up with for the contenders and my personal preference for this race.

[Rverge]

here is 1 from mnr.

[Rverge]

results

[alydar_ David]

It's nice when everything falls into place and all the contenders fit nicely into an acceptable range. In reality that doesn't happen too often though. Unless you're content to make limited spot plays you've got to do the best you can. For example, you'll almost never be able to play a Pick3 if you insist on those range guidelines to get five contenders for every leg.

For this race I have #4 Y ABC'S as tops in Total Energy. At 10-1 the discussion is already over; he's a bet. As if that wasn't enough he's the only horse that can run to 2C and 3F par. Need more reasons to bet? It's second off a layoff. To top if off he's a "Do or Die" dropping to the lowest level he's ever raced. I make his Fair Odds about 2-1. The only negative is his early pace rating. But so it goes.

I may key him with #8 Cap and I'll give serous consideration to what you gents have displayed above.

This horse is clearly the key for me though. And this looks like a good betting race unless he gets smonched down to low odds. They sure have been hammering what I thought would be longshots there lately!

[cprescigno]

OK I'm with you guys on the 5th race. Since you are finding it so easy to come up with the winner how about one or both of you come up with a nice easy Exacta? And maybe even a nice easy Trifecta????

Charlie

[Rverge]

the 9 is out

[RichieP]

the 9 is out. 12mtp

3 screen shots follow

e/l
v/dc
bl/bl

[RichieP]

v/dc screen

[RichieP]

bl/bl screen

[cprescigno]

Yes, the 9 scratched. I'm looking at a 4-8-3 trifecta. Playiing around with those three horses for an Exacta.

Charlie

[RichieP]

my trusted asst who helps with decision making :eek: ;)

[cprescigno]

That looks just like a guy I used to know. Find out if his name is Harvey???

Charlie

[cprescigno]

Just missed getting a super in. Hopefully it will hit just to arrgavate me a little.

Charlie

[RichieP]

winner is the 1 at 9/1

2 is second


"Oh the best laid plans of mice and men"

Rich

[cprescigno]

So much for those easy races.......How about we pick a hard one next time? Maybe we'll do better?
1 win
7 Place
2 Show
1-7-2-4 $8000 Superfecta

[Rverge]

winner is the 1 at 9/1

2 is second


"Oh the best laid plans of mice and men"

Rich
Thanks RichieP
i learned something new with this race. it was great.
thanks again
john
ps do it again but wait 10 days as i will be on my honeymoon!

[cprescigno]

Congratulations. Going somewhere nice and warm I hope? Get out of this snow we have here. Have a safe trip and a really good time John.

Charlie

[Rverge]

Congratulations. Going somewhere nice and warm I hope? Get out of this snow we have here. Have a safe trip and a really good time John.

Charlie
thank you sir!

[cprescigno]

My pleasure, good luck on the start of a new life John.

Charlie