The Art Of Watching Races

[Fast4522]

For those who rely on just Sartin to keep you in the black I say good luck, you are going to need it. Often also called Trip Handicapping, there is real skill that one should learn that puts things together nicely. To be able to watch and remember by name, a runner who is all done because in its last race it stopped reaching. Explained to me many times by a trainer I got to know and learn from, reaching seen by a runner whose front legs are observed to be reaching competitively. Conversely it can viewed and remembered when a runner stops reaching abruptly while being competitive, if viewed properly you know that was that runners last race. Most runners only have three good races in them before they require some rest and or conditioning to resume being competitive. Another thing to notice is if a horse is pissed off, they do not run well if they are pissed off. Using a pissed off horse because of wager capping will help the chalk immensely. Another thing to notice is in post parade is there a runner throwing its head about, if you wager capped one of these into your parlays your also shoveling s**t against the tide and asking the chalk to slap you. There are many tells that could be talked about here if people have the inclination to post something, so feel free to continue this thread.

[tompkins]

I have witnessed many a runner (one of the best examples was Unbridled's Blue Grass before the Derby) NOT reaching one day, then when the pace scenario and form cycle was right, they stretch right out. Observing only works when one notes what is positive for ONE horse. There are no generalities. Horses are not generic creatures.

Races are mutually exclusive of one another, trends aren't

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=Fast4522]For those who rely on just Sartin to keep you in the black I say good luck, you are going to need it.

So the $ 18,355.00 profit( based on Brisbet and Meadowlands bet card) I have made in the last 20 months is just one LONG lucky streak I guess.

I personally feel the new changes are a nightmare. This is for the way I worked races in the past and apply to nobody but ME. I will adapt or leave racing. Doesn't get much simpler than that.

Feelin lucky today ??

Richie

[Fast4522]

Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting. Bees that ways most of the time.

[RichieP]

Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting. Bees that ways most of the time.


Not sure I understand. Are you saying because I posted something no one is gonna reply now? please help me understand ok?

Am I missing something here? I certainly hope to God nobody is afraid of me. Jesu Christo all I have ever tried to do is share what knowledge I have of some of the workings of the software I use.

Things NOT having to do with Doc are beautiful. Matter of fact the software I have used for the last 2 days and made over a couple of hundred bucks with is NOT Sartin.

What DOES bother me is when Sartin is put down.You know why? Cause the man is NOT here to defend himself. Same **** with Guy. Now people want to bash him. it's bull****. Your comment " for those who rely JUST on Sartin to make a buck good luck" is to ME a put down. Why not mention K-19? Pace Appraiser? "Proggie"? what do these programs "see" the warmups that Sartin does not.

You keep saying that you have nothing against Sartin yet u tell people that your goal is to "shoot holes" in Doc's stuff Steve. What does that tell me? you have a hard on for anything Sartin. Which is fine with me.I am not married to the guy nor is his the only software that I can use to make money with. Just be upfront about it.

Bottom line is we are all horseplayers betting money. Whatever software gets you there is the one to be using whether it's Ainsle or Ziemba.

no one bashes your software nor tries to poke holes in it.

Richie

[Fast4522]

I was not referring to software as the tool we use. Just how the tool is used, by the way I use sartin programs as a tool and a way I view the races as a vantage point. Fear (Richie) no way, by no means did I mean to imply that, but to post different and draw negitave reaction yes. The math in the sartin programs I understand completely but I am not ruled by it and am open to notice things others miss that the math can not encompass.

[tompkins]

Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting.
surely you jest

[cprescigno]

My two cents.
I don't have a problem using the Sartin program. At least I don't have a problem usng Val3. I started using Spec but didn't like some of the results I was getting there. If there is a better prorgam out there that will get more consistent results I would like to hear about it. Actually I don't want to hear about it, would prefer seeing it in action here on the board. I'm doing pretty well with Val3. Since the trackmaster changes I do have to be more careful with race selection and paceline selection but I'm stll getting winners regularly. Here's a race I did this morning and sent it out to a friend of mine on this board. We have been concerned about the trackmaster changes and the effects of those changes. My contention is if you stick to the basics, adhere to the guidlines and apply some common sense you still can use this program and achieve a nice profit.
Here's the third race at Tampa Bay that I did at 9 AM this morning. It was right on the money. I ran three pacelines for the 9 horse and he came up top five in all three, and at the top of two of them.
The 9 Won paying $11.20 with a $30 9-5 Exacta. A simple race, nothing difficult, pretty straight forward pacelines. An easy trip to the Window to collect.

[tompkins]

refreshing to see someone go back a few lines. THAT horse DID run that race. Question always remains is THAT the horse performance we will see today.

[admin]

Hi Charlie
I will answer your Email Here here if you don't mind
Yes I do hate the bickering ,As hard as
I try to avoid it I fall into trouble. There are plenty of people planting land mines on this board. I and my great friends get trapped because we look to this board to win and learn and to talk to others, In the hope that we can get some of the love we try to give out
I saw it coming this time but I figured that the original poster
would have left use by now. He will come on and give some wild reply about math But In truth he in his own words just wants to drill holes in the methodology. I sure can't ban him or delete his opinions
I feel the best thing for a sartin methodology site to do with these types is ignore them. I like him personally , I have been met him and his wife and they are good people Trouble is his ideas are not what mine are and if I listened to his idea what a website should be I would just as easily shut down and post on PaceAdvantage.
Anyway great post about race 3 from Tampa
I agree and am very happy for you

[Fast4522]

Ok,
My viewpoint is not shared by the methodology in general. I think Sartin Methodology today is only a name given to something that has morphed into many programs and not just the old ones which I still use. Sure folks want to keep the old ways alive and I also understand that, but read the start of the thread and pehaps notice sometime down the road in the post parade if a starter is doing what I mentioned in the post, notice it a few times and keep score of it and you will in fact find these things to be true. I did not learn them from the methodology but did share them in a what I though was a superb post. I am not saying old things do not work in sartin when in fact just about anything that was written 20 years ago in sartin still works. The things I mentioned in this post are olso old, maybe as much as the oldest racetracks are (where I picked them up), and also still work. Is the Sartin methodology only about what doc has put out? The answer is yes 20 years ago, but today I doubt it unless your total retro. I would suggest if you have a open mind, that you may do well with Val3 for many years from now as well. The program still works beautifully if you can figure out what the connections are doing in the race, not everyone is running to win. Racing Secretaries fill races with starters that are not well ment every day at every racetrack, which is what the post was inspired and the fact that I myself am not a wager capping fan. I have always thought and still do think the best horse in the race will run its best no matter what its odds are.

[socantra]

There's nothing wrong with trip handicapping, except that it requires frequent attendance at the track or the watching of hours of video replays.

Likewise, body language or physicality handicapping has its place, but is most effective at the track where you can view paddock and post parade close up. I still remember Trillis Parker's "tootsie rolls". I've also gone through a lot of Tackach stuff and find it fairly effective if I'm at the OTB with the nice big screen monitors, but it's of little use at home where I do most of my handicapping and wagering.

It's also extremely hard to transfer the skill by words alone. I don't think I've ever known anyone who became proficient at body language out of a book. It's a style that almost requires someone to physically show you and some people have a real hard time picking it up even then.

It's also far from foolproof and dangerous to apply from something as simple as a toss of the head, or a horse walking short in the post parade. Many seasoned old claimers are all but lame in the post parade and work it out in the warmup, and angry horses win races every day. I remember one oldhorse at Remington Park that contributed greatly to my income. If the horse looked normal in the paddock, keep your money in your pocket, but if it showed up trying to bite the trainer, savage the groom and go after the other horses, you could run to the window. It would usually continue its show thru the post parade, then settle down and warm up for the race. I'd watch people mark it off as it acted up and go put more money on it. That old horse had two speeds, off and pissed.

If it works for you, that's great. I'm not at the track often enough to get much out of it these days and I play too many different tracks to worry much about the connections. I find that wagercappping generally gets me enough long odds winners that I can wind up ahead of the game without worrying too much about the other stuff. Usually, it seems the more information I get, the more I second guess myself and the less effective I am.

dick...

[Fast4522]

Wow, a completely intelligent open reply, I commend you Dick. Wager capping you have found to be within your style of betting where it is not in mine. Let me explain in detail, I do not bet the same amount every race, I am a bet a little to get a lot guy with the gimmicks generally. Often not betting the same type of bet in each race depending which pools I feel have value but not wager capping to win. Several races go along where I am game for $5 and $2 bets all day until I pick up on something that is often not sartin but use with the sartin in the race. Make no mistake when I do pick up on something in a race, I am not betting with the $2 & $5 mode, I am all out to take your money in the pools, meaning I am a fly on the wall waiting for the kill with much more bet. To stay in the black I only have to be right 50 % of the time, it only takes just one race for me and I do keep score to keep my mindset on the level.

[admin]

Thanks Fast I can see your point and I know from watching you bet many times You sure do attack races

However please think about the amount you or anyone bets is a very personal thing The $2 -$5 better is betting that not to be reckless
I would tend to think they are betteing what little they can
A sort of feel that not too many people go to the track with a bank roll
big enough to bet $50 win, Trifecta boxes .10 supers 4 horse exacta boxes but bets are betting $5 win bets because they don't care
I think everyone is doing what they can with what they have

Just as side when you use a persons name is it not proper to us a capital S for Sartin ?
GS
Bill

[Fast4522]

I don't attack the races, as the saying goes you can beat a race but you can not beat the races, I did not coin it. Good plays come along two to three times a week maybe four times if you are lucky enough to spot them. I am not talking about wager capping or win betting where you get the double digit winner. I am talking about W2G or my favorite, a just shy of $600 tri that you have more than once. Sometimes a 2-1 chalk with bombs for second,third, and forth. I really doubt the game can be had by just win bets which often go like your up $100 or down $100 on any given day. Instead I think the only way to make consistantly is the big score. I can sit all week in a sports book, and if I go for 3 races all out that week I am lucky. In general I bet short amounts that are safe in pools where I find value until good spots present themselves. I do not do 20 race cycles or anything robotic for that matter. I do not expect to make more money at the track or simulcast more than what I do for a living. Handicapping is only one side of the coin with the where the more important side of betting. And in between its the Art Of Watching Races like the start of the thread. And just for you I did not use anyones name which I had to worrie if it was capital or not and what does it matter anyway.

[shoeless]

Fast you made some good points .Shoeless

[admin]

Fast
Just think Its polite and good manners
to use a persons name in a capital
Sartin is a mans name not a trade mark no worry
just looking for a little respect for a older man who gave much more than he had to to people who wanted to win
You are a great handicapper. Thats is fantastic. If you can teach others
thats even better
Thanks for you input

Bill

[tompkins]

Lawlor productions had a good tape on trips by Paul Mellos and available here: http://www.casinocom.com/videos/videos.html.

Only problem is that many an animal OVERCOMES the bad trip and often TOO much is made of an incident and folks put too much emphasis on them

[traynor]

socantra wrote: <It's also extremely hard to transfer the skill by words alone. I don't think I've ever known anyone who became proficient at body language out of a book. It's a style that almost requires someone to physically show you and some people have a real hard time picking it up even then.>

It is not an isolated skill. That is, you can develop a facility to "see more" by paying more attention to things that are dynamic and "finely-grained." From my own experience, the biggest jump in my observational skills in trip handicapping came as a direct result of an interest in Olympic-grade gymnastics and figure skating. The more I looked at the performances from the standpoint of a judge, the more I was able to see in horse races.

The key skill is developing a state of focused concentration that is both tightly focused in scope, and relaxed enough to pick up fine details. Where most people go wrong is that they try too hard.
Good Luck