New Pace WorKshop Enhancements

[SilentRun]

Ted,

I have been viewing the New Pace Workshop video and there are two topics that I feel should be included in subsequent versions of RDSS.

One of the topics is the Quirin Speed points and I believe that it is scheduled for a future RDSS version as per a prior post but I am not sure. IMO the Quirin Speed points were shown to have a very positive impact value in the contender selection process. I backtested many programs and found it to be a valuable tool. It would be nice if they were included in the New Pace screen.

The other topic is: Breaking Ties using the Speed Ratings. I found this to be very reliable after using it in many of my previous races. It correlates very nicely with TE. I used it to break ties with: speed ratings, VDC, low odds contenders and even with speed point ties.

This could be a pop-up option and the user just enters the horses and the results are displayed. I feel just going back 4 deep is adequate.

Anyway this is my opinion on these topics.

Ernie

[mikesal57]

I agree Ernie....

I'm sure Ted can take care of this..

Daves concept of averaging races shouldn't be a problem for Ted to program :D

mike

[pktruckdriver]

I am a Newpace purchaser, but am not privy to the updates, since my posting of Saratoga was so bad I was banned from them, is there a way I could get the updates thru RDSS2 EL 2.0, or am I out of luck, as I am sure whenever their is an update to RDSS2 EL 2.0 I will get it , but is there something I may need to know now that may help me pick better contenders now, or somehow narrow down from 4 to 2-3 maybe, ??

Any help would be appreciated if it is okay, if not, I guess waiting till the next update will be okay. I have not been refunded any moneys so I guess I am still a NewPace user, otherwise I would stop using it, or evaluating it , but till then I wish to work with it and see how much better it can be in the RDSS2 enviroment .

Thank you all

patrick

[Ted Craven]

Ernie,

Good points, and both QSP and a complex tie-breaking object are in the works. In the meanwhile, note that exact ties are broken currently (albeit simply): tied Early Hi SRs are broken on the higher Low SR, and tied Late Low SRs are broken on the higher Hi SR. But more tie breaking on ties within a range of points will be added. Meanwhile, I break them now by things like Class Rating (CR), VDC and Total Energy - but most importantly - by bet-time odds!

You know you can change the program selected Early and Late Contenders, right? (Just click on the Early or Late column a few times ;)).

Ted

[Ted Craven]

I am a Newpace purchaser, but am not privy to the updates, since my posting of Saratoga was so bad I was banned from them, is there a way I could get the updates thru RDSS2 EL 2.0, or am I out of luck, as I am sure whenever their is an update to RDSS2 EL 2.0 I will get it , but is there something I may need to know now that may help me pick better contenders now, or somehow narrow down from 4 to 2-3 maybe, ??

Any help would be appreciated if it is okay, if not, I guess waiting till the next update will be okay. I have not been refunded any moneys so I guess I am still a NewPace user, otherwise I would stop using it, or evaluating it , but till then I wish to work with it and see how much better it can be in the RDSS2 enviroment .

Thank you all

patrick

Patrick,

Unless I hear complaints from Dave S (and even after that), I have no plans to limit any discussion about anything involving Newpace rules to anyone registered in this NewPace forum, whether from the original video series or any written or video updates. Anyone can ask anything about the method, and actually everything about Newpace which does not include discussion of formulas can be conducted in public (e.g. screenshots, betting summaries, usage in conjunction with other RDSS aspects).

Ask anything here. If you want to purchase the NP update video, just go to Dave's store and buy it (it's an automated system, I think ...), or write him. It is not available here.

cheers,

Ted

[SilentRun]

Ernie,

You know you can change the program selected Early and Late Contenders, right? (Just click on the Early or Late column a few times ;)).

Ted

This is a great feature, I use it all the time.

Ernie

[gl45]

That is the question...
Sartin method, and correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't use speed rating as one of the handicapping factor in contenders selection. My final question to the DRSS users ....are you guys use DRSS or New Pace as your main handicapping method. I'm confuse, is DRSS different than New pace? And if so, which software is validating the handicapping results. Is DRSS contenders are validating the New Pace contenders or vice versa.
If DRSS has horses 1-2-3-4 as contenders, and New Pace has 1-2-3-6 as contenders, then you don't need both program, you'll be betting 1-2-3 ex box. Am I right?

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks Ted.

I had dinner with Dave tonight and we did not discuss business, but I feel that what gl45 states, so far from my research, which is very small data and race samples , mind you, but they tend to lead me to, staying with the program and , awaiting the advances of NewPace in the fold of RDSS2 and finding what may be the best numbers to use with it, as the options are numerous, TE, VDC, Adjusted SR , TM SR, and the original, too many possibilities, and then it is only a contender selection process, 1 that gives out 4 contenders a race, for me too many, but yet Doc says 5 contenders , and then narrow down to your best 2-3 value bets.

Newpace can be an expedited way for contenders selection, an almost 1 click and whammo, 4 contenders, while RDSS 2.0 is a few moreclick's and much more thourough and for me a better way, for now, and I still get some nice prices using RDSS 2.0 , but still more studies are needed.

I do find myself looking at a horse more closely if Newpace select's it and I do not , I may look deeper at it and see why NP has it, and then either eliminate it and or PASS.

Thanks Ted

As for wagering in Newpace , last I heard a 4 horse exbox is an ok wager, thou here at RDSS , we are trying to narrow it down a bit, to say 3 horse box, sometimes tossing the ML favorite out, but again more studies are being done.


Patrick

[Dave Schwartz]

ear complaints from Dave S (and even after that), I have no plans to limit any discussion about anything involving Newpace rules to anyone registered in this NewPace forum, whether from the original video series or any written or video updates. Anyone can ask anything about the method, and actually everything about Newpace which does not include discussion of formulas can be conducted in public (e.g. screenshots, betting summaries, usage in conjunction with other RDSS aspects).

It would be unreasonable for me to expect anything different.

Please discuss away.


Dave

PS: I look forward to further suggestions.

PPS: The first 3 days here have been very rough... I play maidens, I play turf, I play off tracks... but I do not like to play all 3 (or even 2) together.

The only bright spots have been seen in the modeling of running style as an addition to NewPace. That may be the next direction to go for still more improvement.

[gl45]

pk,
did you attend the last new pace seminar? If you did, you would have discover something unusual. Dave Schwartz does trow new idea at you, and is up to you to develop them further. I have a very inquisitive mind, and when the subject of tie breakers did come up, I thought it need further massaging. Just think, new pace will use the 3rd. best and the 4th worst, but what if the 3rd. best did occur 10 races back, but the tie breaker, which is the average of the last 4 races, says the horse is a better contender. Now what do you do. The average of the last 4 races, should represent the current form, use it, or just discard the idea? Last night MNR race #9 and #10 did provide me with some example of the new tie breaker, and how can be massaged for a winning situation.
Good luck.

[pktruckdriver]

pk,
did you attend the last new pace seminar? If you did, you would have discover something unusual. Dave Schwartz does trow new idea at you, and is up to you to develop them further. I have a very inquisitive mind, and when the subject of tie breakers did come up, I thought it need further massaging. Just think, new pace will use the 3rd. best and the 4th worst, but what if the 3rd. best did occur 10 races back, but the tie breaker, which is the average of the last 4 races, says the horse is a better contender. Now what do you do. The average of the last 4 races, should represent the current form, use it, or just discard the idea? Last night MNR race #9 and #10 did provide me with some example of the new tie breaker, and how can be massaged for a winning situation.
Good luck.

Sorry I was Banned from the last seminar, saved 27.00, but I do agree, we want the most current form to analyze a horse's condition, I would think, as you say 10 races ago could be over a year or longer, an awesome 2-3 yr old race may never be duplicated, but a horse running recently and has been for last 180 days, will be able to show it's current form in the paceline's, even if it had a troubled trip, or prone to trouble, like humans, we tend to always find trouble, you know people like this and horses too are like this, but sticking to post...tie breakers.


3rd best and 4th worst, can you hear yourself there, stop and think , please, we are talking horse's, not quantum physics, Our goal is to find horse we think can win today's race, that means finding , if we can what the pace of todays race will be and how it fits each horse, and from that find what 2-3 horse's, are the best win canidates, and current form and current pace profiles, and current class ,they each help us decide how the horse will run today, does 3rd best and 4th worst fit here, I think not, but I am a simple man with a simple mind, I could be wrong...you state your inquisitive, which I am too, but sometimes my mind limits where I can go, your may allow you go where I can not, and to you 3rd best and 4th worst makes you say, Wow, AND IF IT DOES COULD YOU EXPLAIN TO ME WHY, honsetly, I do not get it, and not being sarcastic or mean or anything like that, just honestly wanting to know, inquisitively, please.

For me RDSS 2.0 is Tie Breaker, because it works, we know it does and Doc proved it many times that it works, and Ted and Barb , and the Bill's and all of us who use it, what I do know about NP is that it is not refined and may never be, but RDSS2.0 is a fine tuned program, NOW THIS MY OPINION, and from my little bit research, my conclusion, others may need 5000 race's to study and such, not me , I am not willing to put my hard earned money on the line with it, but RDSS 2.0 I would, and have.

GL45 I am tired an off to bed , please let us follow up on this,I am very interested,

patrick

[gl45]

pk,
If you're not interested in New Pace, I suggest you start to take some Quantum Physics classes at nearby Community College, if there are any. Community College are cheap and some of the educators are above average. Possibly with some luck you might find one that is interested in horse racing and help you to find the holy grail, and if you do, let me know, it seems I'm the less educated by your standard.
Good luck, you do need it.
G>

[pktruckdriver]

pk,
If you're not interested in New Pace, I suggest you start to take some Quantum Physics classes at nearby Community College, if there are any. Community College are cheap and some of the educators are above average. Possibly with some luck you might find one that is interested in horse racing and help you to find the holy grail, and if you do, let me know, it seems I'm the less educated by your standard.
Good luck, you do need it.
G>

:confused::confused:

[rmath]

I think you guys may have misunderstood Daves use of the last 4 speed ratings as tie breakers. The use of 3rd best and 4th worst is only used to get the contenders, the final 4 and the price only horses.
The use of the last 4 races speed ratings are used as a composite to separate these contenders. It is not the average of just the last 4, but it uses the rankings of the last race added to the rankings taken from the averages of the last two, and then the averages of the last 3 and then the average of the last 4 races with each rank being multiplied by the %s assigned to each rank, just like the rankings in New Pace.
This was my understanding of its use from Daves workshop.

[Dave Schwartz]

You are correct!

[gl45]

Rich,
with all do respect, I didn't misunderstood Dave. The confuse one is the Truck Driver.
Let see:
the last speed rating is multiplied by "1"
The averages of the last 2 speed ratings are multiplied by .62
The averages of the last 3 speed ratings are multiplied by .38
The averages of the last 4 speed ratings are multiplied by .24
and the averages of the best 2 speed ratings are multiplied by .14

everything is added up to a single number, and ties are derived by rankings the final numbers.
If the above formulas are wrong, than I fail again.
I have been fooling around with new pace since the day one. I tried everything to make it work as a black box, to be honest nothing worked, till now.
There is something about new pace that made me working a little harder at it.
Some don't like to work at it, I do, and it is what separate the wheat from the chaff.

[pktruckdriver]

I think you guys may have misunderstood Daves use of the last 4 speed ratings as tie breakers. The use of 3rd best and 4th worst is only used to get the contenders, the final 4 and the price only horses.
The use of the last 4 races speed ratings are used as a composite to separate these contenders. It is not the average of just the last 4, but it uses the rankings of the last race added to the rankings taken from the averages of the last two, and then the averages of the last 3 and then the average of the last 4 races with each rank being multiplied by the %s assigned to each rank, just like the rankings in New Pace.
This was my understanding of its use from Daves workshop.

Thanks

It would be nice if you could attend them workshop thingies, guess they help you understand this NP thing, oh well, your explanation was great thank you.


I do hope all this is done for you , the calculations, right? Otherwise I will stop now, and just keep using RDSS 2.0!!

patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Black Box, that will be the day, no matter how hard you work, Period.

This I can promise anyone, there is no Black Box, trust me on this, now for NP in RDSS2.0 , well maybe with enough studies and tweaking , 1 day it may be a good contender selection process to use, but you still need to narrow things down, as all the studies show, 4 wagers per race does not work , either win or ex boxes, yes you can have a lucky day, but then reality sets in and you lose and lose and lose.

But since there have been many new so called developements that I am not privy to, how could I honestly answer this, well for one thing, I paid for Newpace, and lost with Newpace, and then was cut off from further updated materials for NP because I reported on this site exactly what I found, newpace does not win, so yes I think I have the right to say NP does not work, and I have done my homework with it, despite what some people think, and posting here is my right and I will stay up on this and speak my mind, until Ted says otherwise, no offense is ever meant to anyone, I only wish to win, hopefully like y'all do, and being cut-off from updates, after wasting your hard earned money on a product, and some of the numerous Classess and such, spending more money, and after moving to RDSS to try to make NP work, you get banned, like I did, it is frustrating, and yet no refund of NP was ever offered, nothing but seeya, all for posting directly what NP gave me for Saratoga, and then doing the recap at the end of the day, nothing more.

My take on NP was that it's from Doc's old Early Late stuff, (disclaimer my opinion, not stating it is, okay), from the follow ups, and well Ted has decided it belongs here and that is more than enough for me to try to be patient , ask questions and wait till we figure this thing out the best we can here on RDSS, as the people here are among the best out there, and we know it, not being concieted or sarcastic, just stating a fact I believe to be true.

the storm will be here soon, and I will be able to relax and help others , as I will helping at the tracks doing whatever is needed of me, if needed at all.

patrick

[rmath]

gl45, I apologize for saying you guys may have misunderstood the use of the last 4 speed ratings as tie breakers. You have a very good understanding of what Dave was trying to get across. It was my mistake in assuming that neither of you understood the concept. Hope you will forgive me.
Your friend; rmath

[gl45]

Rich,
no apologies were necessary. I'm trying to get the truck driver understand that it is time for him to put some work in horse racing handicapping rather than continuing to ask for help. Plenty of help was donated to him, on other web sites as well, and the story goes on.....
Warm salutation to you, my friend.
G.

[Ted Craven]

Time to move on - we have sufficiently covered the sub-topic of advice given/received, heeded/ignored, etc.

Thank you all.

Ted