Breeders Saturday picks

[Bill Lyster]

Race 2: 4 and 9 to win; box 3-4-9. 4 reverses tandem with 3.

Race 3: Marathon 14 furlongs: 10 and 1 to win; box 1-5-10

Race 4: 8 and 13 have raced against fastest paces and 3 is nearest - box these three and consider win or place bets if odds permit. Off all past performances this race is very close, so some prospecting of higher odds may prove fruitful.

Race 5: 5 and 6 might pick up the pieces; box 1-5-6 and win bets on best odds.


good luck to all of you -

[Ted Craven]

Will update my bets (if any) as post time approaches for each race.

24653

24654

Worked as if 12f (actually 14f)
24655

[raceman5]

Race 2.

8-3-6

Bob

[raceman5]

Race 3.

11-1-10-9


bob

[Mr.Pagine]

Ted - I hope you bet the 8 in the Marathon.
Great picking.
One day you have to show me how to change distances.

[raceman5]

Race 4. 13-9-8-12

Great!!!! hit ted in race 3 41-1 shot!!!

[Mr.Pagine]

I LOVE THE 3-10 here, and have no clue about the EUROS.
:D

[Ted Craven]

Marathon, nice outcome :)

24664

Euros :confused:

[raceman5]

Race 5

2-5-6-8

[Ted Craven]

race 5

24665

[alydar_ David]

CD 5th: Exacta key 6 w/5-8-2

[alydar_ David]

Geez, Ted, hope you had a couple of bucks on that monster of yours!

[alydar_ David]

Looks like we missed this one:

CD
Race: 5 Win Place Show
1st 7 Amazombie 17.80 7.40 5.00
2nd 6 Force Freeze 7.00 5.00
3rd 5 Jackson Bend 3.20
4th 3 Aikenite
$2 D/Double 5/7 211.80
$2 Exacta 7-6 145.20
$2 Trifecta 7-6-5 610.40
$2 Superfecta 7-6-5-3 5554.60
Refunds: None
$2 Pick 3 8/5/7 3 of 3 27266.40

[raceman5]

race 6.

8-11-4-9

[Mr.Pagine]

8-6-7

Happy Punting

[Ted Craven]

race 6

24666

[Seven Furlongs]

In no particular order, I like the 4, 8 and 10.

[alydar_ David]

CD 6th: Exacta key 4 w/8-10-13

[alydar_ David]

Holy cow! Raceman hits a cold trifecta!

CD
Race: 6 Win Place Show
1st 8 Regally Ready 6.60 4.60 3.00
2nd 11 Country Day 24.00 14.20
3rd 4 Perfect Officer 6.00
4th 5 Great Attack
5th 13 Caracortado
$2 D/Double 7/8 83.20
$2 Exacta 8-11 188.20
$2 Trifecta 8-11-4 1542.00
$2 Superfecta 8-11-4-5 21196.80
Refunds: None
$2 Pick 3 5/7/8 3 of 3 999.40

[raceman5]

Steak and lobster tonite lol lol


Race 7.

9-1-5-7

[Seven Furlongs]

The 1 horse looks imposing, but I kind of like the long shot capabilities of the 3 and 6.

[Mr.Pagine]

Tough one - 1 - 2 - 8 - 3

[alydar_ David]

CD 7th: Exacta key 5 w/9-2-8

[alydar_ David]

Mr. Pagine hits a nice exacta.

CD
Race: 7 Win Place Show
1st 8 Caleb's Posse 15.60 7.00 4.80
2nd 2 Shackleford 6.40 4.80
3rd 4 Tres Borrachos 10.80
4th 9 Trappe Shot
$2 D/Double 8/8 65.40
$2 Exacta 8-2 112.80
$2 Trifecta 8-2-4 2220.80
$2 Superfecta 8-2-4-9 10170.20
Refunds: None
$2 Pick 3 7/8/8 3 of 3 630.00
$2 Pick 4 5/7/8/8 4 of 4 7141.00

[raceman5]

Race 8. 7-6-9-1

Race 9. 10-4-5-7

Race 10. 1-5-12-10

Race 11. 10-9-2-12

Race 12. 3-6-1-5

[Mr.Pagine]

Maybe a couple of Scallops and Bacon before dinner to-nite :)

[Seven Furlongs]

Race 8 is too tough for me, 5 of the 9 entrants are foreign invaders.

[Mr.Pagine]

Too long and too many Euros in the 8th

[alydar_ David]

CD 8th:

3/ 2-7-9-6

8/2-7-3

[Mr.Pagine]

7-10-4

[alydar_ David]

CD
Race: 8 Win Place Show
1st 1 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) 15.60 7.20 5.40
2nd 7 Sea Moon (GB) 5.00 4.20
3rd 8 Brilliant Speed 7.00
4th 2 Sarafina (FR)
$2 D/Double 8/1 109.20
$2 Exacta 1-7 76.20
$2 Trifecta 1-7-8 1221.80
$2 Superfecta 1-7-8-2 4536.80
Refunds: None
$2 Pick 3 8/8/1 3 of 3 528.60

[Ted Craven]

Race 9 It will be really interesting to see how long that monster Early Hansen can hang on! I can't see nearly enough Late energy versus these other Graded Stakes winners, but he could hang around for some money. Watch his past race replays if you get a chance - fascinating.

24669

[Bill Lyster]

If the pace is in the mid 111's for 6 furlongs, this looks like a jumble at the top of the stretch; several horses project to be on or near the lead at that pace;

I like the 2, Dullahan and the 3 Crusade to win; the 13 can wait to pass a lot of horses late, so that is my box exacta, but for the trifecta I have to include the 4 and 7 as well as the favored 10.

So top 3 on top with the rest on the ticket for trifecta and superfecta;

moving on....

[Seven Furlongs]

Race 9 It will be really interesting to see how long that monster Early Hansen can hang on! I can't see nearly enough Late energy versus these other Graded Stakes winners, but he could hang around for some money. Watch his past race replays if you get a chance - fascinating.


I took your advice and after watching his two races, Hansen is surely a beast. So, I decided to bet him to win, though he was part of my original short list of 5 horses that needed to be paired down.

Thanks for the help Ted.

[Ted Craven]

I took your advice and after watching his two races, Hansen is surely a beast. So, I decided to bet him to win, though he was part of my original short list of 5 horses that needed to be paired down.

Thanks for the help Ted.

I never cheered so loudly for a horse I didn't bet to win! Exacta saved my butt.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Race 10. It would not surprise me if Goldi were a step slower this year, and this is no game for sentimentality. Reminds me a bit of Zenyatta last year. Her last race, a chance for glory - 4 consecutive BC wins, etc

I'll go for Gio Ponti and Courageous Cat, and root for Goldi all the way. (Byward bothers me ...)

24670

[Bill Lyster]

Goldikova and Jeranimo to win; with Mr. Commons to complete my exacta box. My 4th is Courageous Cat, so trifecta box 1x3x4x7

Goldikova's last race was at 7 furlongs where the winning time was 118.1 and she lost by a HEAD. Even if this was an "about" distance that was absolutely HUGE.

[Mr.Pagine]

1-7-5

THE 7 will be flying late

[Bill V.]

1 3 5 for me

[Ted Craven]

Classic. Havre de Grace, Ruler on Ice.

24671

[Mr.Pagine]

love the 13 ..............:D
13 - 4 - and Uncle Mo

Thanks guys - this was fun.

Have a great night.

[Bill Lyster]

Two closest to mile lead are the 8 and 13; closer is the 2 who ran 541

The 13 ran 2-2-1 and must go by the 8; The 2 should close nicely.

I used 6-fifths and 8 fifths adjustment for Uncle Mo and when you look at his non-one turn races it fits pretty well. I think Uncle Mo is no better than 3rd or 4th.

Also from off the lead is Headache, the 11, who will run close to 8-7-3

Win bets on 2 and 8; exacta boxes with 13 and add the 11 for a price. Place money on any of these with odds above 8/1 or thereabouts.

Bill

[Ted Craven]

Well, there's always Tampa Bay Downs ... :o

Despite a few good picks this weekend, it was not a profitable BC for me. Had a great time trying, though!

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Ted

Thanks again for the great program and all your support, it is time for me to melt back into the background for awhile, leanring and lurking and loving every minute of it.


My picks were real close and with better time and more practice , I think more money woulda been won, but up I am a few minor exacta's, enough to be happy with.

Now after reading all the fun here today I kinda wish I stayed in the truck and played instead of going Presque Isle Downs, which was not horse friendly at all, Slots and table games thou, not a place to go again on BC day, but met up with a good friend and had fun anyway.

As always great work Ted, great program, and it was spot on for so many of us and on so many different races, thanks for your never ending pursuit of perfection, I am very happy with it, and look forward to helping test anythng when ever you want.

Patrick

[Ted Craven]

Thank you Patrick. May your truck stay in the right lane, as you roll on down the road.

Ted

[Mr.Pagine]

I could handicap for 50 yrs and I would never get to Drosselmeyer.

For the first time in 3 years, I am on the negative side of the ledger. Fun couple of days - but more work is needed.

Happy Punting

[rmath]

Just a quick word on the Breeders Cup races. I was lucky this year as I hit 4winners out of 12 plays. The payoffs were 42.40, 57.60 85.20 and 131.60. The last one was by the narrowest of margins. I have found that in my play of these races only I restrict my wagers to my top 4 or 5 horses that rank in the top 4 vdc and at 1minute to post the odds are at least 15/1. I only bet 2.00 to win and 3.00 to place. This has allowed me to make a small profit in each of the last 5 years. This is the only way I have been able to win on the Breeders Cup races. I avoid all the gimmicks because I have almost always made some sort of profit from win & place bets but was giving most if not all of it back trying for the Big payoff.
rmath