RichieP
03-03-2006, 06:32 PM
I did NOT bet this race today. Busy cleaning up my yard after the ice storm that hit.
Program - Validator 3
Guidelines from Howard- Beaten lenghts finish 7.5 or less - to consider an xtracted line the horse should show high speed to the 2c of the route and be on the lead or less than a lenght off it.
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My mind can NOT process the large speed ratings at many tracks that are showing up in MANY races. I am sorry a horse in a 7k claiming race does NOT run 100 speed ratings. I don't give a **** what the software shows ok?
The above lack of pattern recognition was the biggest single factor in me losing almost a thousand dollars of real money in the 3 weeks that followed Feb 1st and Equibase's changed Sr scale and variant change.
In talking with Bill and Eric last weekend I realized the both of them were suggesting kind of the same things to me but in different "language".
Bill suggested that I scroll thru races looking for races where the ratings seemed normal at least as far as from what I remembered Val 3 to " look" like
before 2/1.
Eric told me that he was amazed that I could look at a few cards of races and pick out a couple of value races after QUICKLY selecting pacelines with NO reference to models,profiles etc.
What does all the above mean? I have found something that sort of combines what both gentlemen were telling me. It pertains to the speed ratings. I have NO reasonable explanation for this PATTERN yet it IS there in spades man. Here it is:
THERE ARE CERTAIN TRACKS AND SPECIFIC DISTANCES AND CLASSES WHERE THE SPEED RATINGS MAKE TOTAL SENSE. THEY MIMIC THE LOOK OF THE SOFTWARE BEFORE THE CHANGES HAPPENED ON 2/1.
LOOK at the Santa Anita race I posted yesterday. Maiden claimer- 7f- speed ratings- 60's and low 70's. PERFECT. Open a followup and you see Howard beckoning us to work these maiden races as " all the horse's have speed ratings in the 70's". Same EXACT look and feel of yesterday's "post 2/1" race at SA.
Using the "multi-screening" process I worked thru in that race brings back all the sensory "feels" needed by an instinctual wagerer like myself yo make good wager decisions.
Fast forward to today at Aqueduct.
Race 9 - 30k claimers - 6f - # 5 is scratched
As you are about to see the HIGH speed rating following paceline selection guidelines is 91. Certainly very much in line with what I remembera much better claimer to run at a top flight circuit like NY.
Feeling a bit more comfortable already and I just scrolled thru the field once ;)
Horse 1 paceline
Program - Validator 3
Guidelines from Howard- Beaten lenghts finish 7.5 or less - to consider an xtracted line the horse should show high speed to the 2c of the route and be on the lead or less than a lenght off it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
My mind can NOT process the large speed ratings at many tracks that are showing up in MANY races. I am sorry a horse in a 7k claiming race does NOT run 100 speed ratings. I don't give a **** what the software shows ok?
The above lack of pattern recognition was the biggest single factor in me losing almost a thousand dollars of real money in the 3 weeks that followed Feb 1st and Equibase's changed Sr scale and variant change.
In talking with Bill and Eric last weekend I realized the both of them were suggesting kind of the same things to me but in different "language".
Bill suggested that I scroll thru races looking for races where the ratings seemed normal at least as far as from what I remembered Val 3 to " look" like
before 2/1.
Eric told me that he was amazed that I could look at a few cards of races and pick out a couple of value races after QUICKLY selecting pacelines with NO reference to models,profiles etc.
What does all the above mean? I have found something that sort of combines what both gentlemen were telling me. It pertains to the speed ratings. I have NO reasonable explanation for this PATTERN yet it IS there in spades man. Here it is:
THERE ARE CERTAIN TRACKS AND SPECIFIC DISTANCES AND CLASSES WHERE THE SPEED RATINGS MAKE TOTAL SENSE. THEY MIMIC THE LOOK OF THE SOFTWARE BEFORE THE CHANGES HAPPENED ON 2/1.
LOOK at the Santa Anita race I posted yesterday. Maiden claimer- 7f- speed ratings- 60's and low 70's. PERFECT. Open a followup and you see Howard beckoning us to work these maiden races as " all the horse's have speed ratings in the 70's". Same EXACT look and feel of yesterday's "post 2/1" race at SA.
Using the "multi-screening" process I worked thru in that race brings back all the sensory "feels" needed by an instinctual wagerer like myself yo make good wager decisions.
Fast forward to today at Aqueduct.
Race 9 - 30k claimers - 6f - # 5 is scratched
As you are about to see the HIGH speed rating following paceline selection guidelines is 91. Certainly very much in line with what I remembera much better claimer to run at a top flight circuit like NY.
Feeling a bit more comfortable already and I just scrolled thru the field once ;)
Horse 1 paceline