"Ok so maybe it's just me"

[trotman]

I think most are aware that I am not a big fan of par charts based around $10 claimers, but do you not think tracking how a track is playing % early, % late is more relevant and usefull for those who handicap in velocity. If a horses preferred style is between this % early and this preferred % late would this not fit with how said track for this distance might be playing and if so would this not be the horses we should be playing. Hey I'm just putting this out there because this forum has many sharp minds and I'm not trying to jerk a chain, to me anyway this is a valid question.

[For The Lead]

I think most are aware that I am not a big fan of par charts based around $10 claimers,...neither am I

but do you not think tracking how a track is playing % early, % late is more relevant and usefull for those who handicap in velocity. Yes

If a horses preferred style is between this % early and this preferred % late would this not fit with how said track for this distance might be playing and if so would this not be the horses we should be playing. Yes, but it opens a can of worms!

Hey I'm just putting this out there because this forum has many sharp minds and I'm not trying to jerk a chain, to me anyway this is a valid question.

What is the basis for establishing a "base line" for how the track is playing?
1 - using the times and running line for the winner of each race directly from the chart, or
2 - using the numbers created by line selection from the PP's

IF #1 is "true", then everybody gets the same read on the track UNLESS they break the races down by more than just distance/surface

IF #2 is "true", then everybody has a different take on how the track is playing because their line selection method is so diverse

[trotman]

For The Lead would #2 not be better for setting a base line, as you said if it was #1 we all would be equal and equal hurts value.

I think if based on your line selection and what the % early and what is the % late of the pace lines selected for all the horses would give us enough to predict the % early or late.

Then from the chart the variance between our projected early or late + or - would be our base for each distance or our range between this and that.