A Decision Model that is Overwhelming / Tampa Bay 6f / Tool - "Vector"

[RichieP]

I totally believe in short term data. Not into this long term stuff. Means nothing to me.

I have found best results and "feel" using 3 days as my "short term" look at a distance.

Going into tomorrow's Tampa card here are 2 screen shots courtesy of the Vector software's modeling module.

Distance - 6f dirt

what you see graphed is the e/l numbers. CONSISTENT big sticks are the winning corrolary for sure.

Notice the extreme predictive power of the following corrolaries:

1) Early - EPR
2) FW

Here is page 1 of the 2 page report for each distance

[RichieP]

Here is page 2 which shows among other things:

primary line score
v/dc readout
fractional velocities
scbl readouts
median energy
morning line of the winner
Win price

if u check that big 50 dollar bomb against the corrolaries on page 1 he is very very gettable if one is in tune with this thing.

The last race 10 dollar winner is the 8 horse that I posted the race under " Esp Early / counterenergy exacta gift.

page 2

hey anyone wagering Tampa tomorrow here you go. Bit of a heads up on the rest of your competitors.

best to all:)
Richie

[tompkins]

you hit it E.P.R.

[RichieP]

Anyone using Val 3 today at Tampa in race 5 ? the PERFECT fit to EVERYTHING in opening post.

Horse 3 - $ 33.00

line 2:
13.7 e/l
Epr- R1
Fw- R2

Hope someone was paying attention and grabbed him.

The ONLY way you miss this horse is if you are ME and get ****ed up looking at the high speed ratings. I worked the race, saw the horse, PERFECT fit, saw the 92 speed rating, saw 5k claimer and PASSED the ****ing race.

Sometimes the depths of my insanity amaze even me :confused:

take care
luv
Richie

[sdahl]

Richie. In vector do you enter the line that won the race to create your model or is it from the past performance line that was entered before the race.
Stan

[tompkins]

The ONLY way you miss this horse is if you are ME and get ****ed up looking at the high speed ratings. I worked the race, saw the horse, PERFECT fit, saw the 92 speed rating, saw 5k claimer and PASSED the ****ing race.



Horses simply run: they can't read conditions....saw that one....Just hook best total energy with best e/l

[tompkins]

Richie. In vector do you enter the line that won the race to create your model or is it from the past performance line that was entered before the race.
Stan
I think eveyone PROJECTS from the pp line chosen going into the contest...that is what the early/late above is from

[RichieP]

Richie. In vector do you enter the line that won the race to create your model or is it from the past performance line that was entered before the race.
Stan

The past performance line that was entered before the race Stan. you can do the SAME thing on a little notepad or worksheet ok?

hope this helps
Richie

[shoeless]

Trust Your Readouts Sound Familiar

[admin]

Anyone using Val 3 today at Tampa in race 5 ? the PERFECT fit to EVERYTHING in opening post.

Horse 3 - $ 33.00

line 2:
13.7 e/l
Epr- R1
Fw- R2

Hope someone was paying attention and grabbed him.

The ONLY way you miss this horse is if you are ME and get ****ed up looking at the high speed ratings. I worked the race, saw the horse, PERFECT fit, saw the 92 speed rating, saw 5k claimer and PASSED the ****ing race.

Sometimes the depths of my insanity amaze even me :confused:

take care
luv
Richie

Rich . I set up a few more tabs in your members only area

Listen I got your E Mail I'm very sorry your tied up with these readouts
I think what you might want to do is good
I have added a link to an page from follow Up 83
I think this is a good one for you to start with
sorry Rich ,Thats a big hit

http://www.bindfold.com/images/bill_pdf.pdf

[traynor]

RichieP wrote: <I totally believe in short term data. Not into this long term stuff. Means nothing to me.>

A suggestion: Do a search on Google or Google Scholar for Tversky and Law of Small Numbers. You may find it helpful. You may also find a book called "Decision Traps," by Russo and Schoemaker even more useful.
Good Luck

[RichieP]

RichieP wrote: <I totally believe in short term data. Not into this long term stuff. Means nothing to me.>

A suggestion: Do a search on Google or Google Scholar for Tversky and Law of Small Numbers. You may find it helpful. You may also find a book called "Decision Traps," by Russo and Schoemaker even more useful.
Good Luck

To be honest with you I am NOT very well educated.I am a street guy who depends on common sense and intuition to survive.

These works are probably going to steer me in YOUR direction of long term forecasting and detailed data analysis which is FINE if it works for you. Most of it is going to be over my head "read-wise anyway though I appreciate the feedback.

I don't believe in this long term stuff. Today's race is a unique event never run before including the horse's and their form cycles.

I also have the benefit of seeing BIG success at this game FIRST HAND so I KNOW there is more than ONE way to skin the cat.


Richie

[traynor]

My suggestions are both easy reads--"Decision Traps" is a small paperback written like a pop "self-help" book. Tversky's varous writings are only important for the first few pages (typical of academic writing), in which the ideas are clearly explained. The rest of academic papers can be (and ususally are, except by someone trying to poke holes in the theories) ignored.

The biggest jump in my handicapping skills came not as a result of college or university instruction, but as a result of meeting a team of Argentinean professional bettors who used a completely different approach to handicapping than anything I had ever seen before. All the statistics, research methods, research design, and data modeling classes taught me how to analyze information and keep records. The Argentineans taught me how to analyze horses and horse races.

The person who taught me the most about "picking winners" was an Argentine who could barely read and write, and considered both a waste of time. What he COULD do was watch races and describe in astounding detail what was actually taking place.
Good Luck

[traynor]

After posting a comment about expertise, I ran across this on PA:

<My favorite is one that I am currently involved in initial testing on.

It is called Racing Decision Support System or R.D.S.S. for short. It's creator is Ted Craven.

1) Fully Automated downloading of multiple data sources and results

2) "Intelligence" built into the software allowing it to think for you pointing to a "virtual" race card of favorable races based on your performance history

3) Direct Live odds going directly to factor analysis screen allowing user to determine if there is enough actual value to support factor being considered.

4) Complete database capabilities.

Many other tools I don't want to get into right now as the software is appx 4-6 months away from being ready for display.

Will be debuted with minimum 60 day no cost trial for interested users.



Richie Pizzicara>

That sounds like a pretty sophisticated app for a "street guy." No insult intended, but it strikes me that the "street guy" linguistic constructs imply an an innate rhetorical strategy (and marketing plan) that may be a bit more sophisticated than the language choices might indicate. Or is this someone else?

If you are the same person who is developing "RDSS" let me know; my specialty is very sophisticated DSS apps for very professional bettors intent on getting the best possible information. If you are using short-term, "Brohamer"-type models you are going to have a very large problem in the profitability department.
Good Luck

[RichieP]

That sounds like a pretty sophisticated app for a "street guy." No insult intended, but it strikes me that the "street guy" linguistic constructs imply an an innate rhetorical strategy (and marketing plan) that may be a bit more sophisticated than the language choices might indicate. Or is this someone else?

If you are the same person who is developing "RDSS" let me know; my specialty is very sophisticated DSS apps for very professional bettors intent on getting the best possible information. If you are using short-term, "Brohamer"-type models you are going to have a very large problem in the profitability department.
Good Luck


I am Shanta on PA website.

No I am not the developer of RDSS. Read the post carefully.

Richie

[traynor]

RichieP wrote: No I am not the developer of RDSS. Read the post carefully.

I assume that when someone is privy to details of an upcoming app, they are involved in some way, directly or indirectly. That causes me to consider the comments in a different light. Not necessarily good or bad--just different.
Good Luck