e/l relativity

[tompkins]

one doesn't often see such a "clear cut" image of relatively earlier e/l's to total energy, but in the Fountain of Youth, check the e/'ls to finish here.
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
6 First Samurai Edgar S. Prado 3.40 2.60 2.20
10 Flashy Bull Rafael Bejarano 6.20 3.80
7 Corinthian Javier Castellano 4.00

[admin]

Mr Tompkins
I have been helping a friend
He is from Columbia and has been to the race track 4 times in his life 3 of those times sitting with me working with Val 3
He wants to learn what I'm doing
I came across a horse like this at Tampa on Saturday
I told him when you get a horse like this that will pay
$3.40

Your really just playing Red or Black like in Roulette

Either you win or lose and you have to bet a lot to win a little

I have no idea what your showing
all I see is the winner paid $3.40 and its Early Late was - 4.4
in a 9.0 race for what I guess is for young horses

all these facts I see says the 6 looks like a strong horse
what else are you trying to say

Thanks Bill

[tompkins]

I was so confident that this HANDICAPPING PROCESS, which is very obvious (top three most positive e/l numbers) would be denegrated that I wrote the response ahead of time and kept it handy.

A HANDICAPPING PROCESS is mutually exclusive from a WAGERING PROCESS and since we are discussing here HANDICAPPING PROCESSES, that is what this is presented as without cherry picking a race for "slapping on the back" bravado and recognition of the mutuels. If one looked hard enough I could have done that as well.

HANDICAPPING PROCESSES allow one to see "order within chaos" above and beyond what the crowd sees. IF that HANDICAPPING PROCESS is just as obvious to the crowd then the WAGERING PROCESS is modified or passed altogether, but that does not change the HANDICAPPING PROCESS: the principles are extant no matter the WAGERING OPPORTUNITIES.

[tompkins]

A quote from the original post: "check the e/'ls to finish here."


right there for all to see

[admin]

Mr Tompkins
I did not denigrate I'm very troubled by your answer
Lets look at it from the readers of this forums point of view
Which forgive me but I am concerned about what gets posted here only in that I want people to get something out of post
especially when screen shots are attached

all I was wondering was, What was your reason to post a screen shot of
the late/early graph
in which there was as you say a relatively small gap in the readouts
and total energy that comes from a race that was won by a $3.40 horse?
I see the top 4 (as you call it) - I call it the 4 nearest to the center /or the 4 that used there energy most evenly throughout the race .
I see these 4 horses separated by a very small 3.2
from the low 3.0 for horse 10 to a high 6.2 for the winner # 6
I see a graph with no wild extreme early's that I agree are most of the time dead give away's to bet against and I see no wild late or counter energy horses to overtake a early duel and in this case lead to a big mutual and plentiful exacta possibility

All that said you posted this

HANDICAPPING PROCESSES allow one to see "order within chaos" above and beyond what the crowd sees. IF that HANDICAPPING PROCESS is just as obvious to the crowd then the WAGERING PROCESS is modified or passed altogether, but that does not change the HANDICAPPING PROCESS: the principles are extant no matter the WAGERING OPPORTUNITIES.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

I have a idea what your trying to say But here
is my question what are you showing ?
why did you feel showing a very nondescript (to the more advance users )
and also a the same time give no explanation to the newbies o
I don't feel I have denigrated your post

all I'm doing is discussing your post as I have no idea what your showing

Thanks
Bill

[tompkins]

top three e/l's, finish One Two Three....classic "thin slicing" a race..Just happened in the 8th at Aqueuduct where the top two e/l's ran first and third: order within chaos.....Pattern repeats and repeats

[admin]

Sir
Anytime you want to be curtious and answer a direct question I will listen

Thank You

[tompkins]

top three e/l's, finish One Two Three....
I don't know how many OTHER ways I can state it, curteously or otherwise VERY OFTEN the answer to the ENTIRE race is found on this single screen

[admin]

But not on BL/BL? How is that possible?

[kiltman]

Tompkins you got me really confused as to why you post a winner at 3.40 cents. The methodology says you dont even bet a horse at this price. Maybe Im messed up but I wouldnt have bet that horse (if I even bet the race).
That is my take on it anyway.

[tompkins]

go back and read that this is just an example of HANDICAPPING, not wagering. It is a HOLISTIC look at the race, not JUST a look for a winner. It was handy way to show the principle of HANDICAPPING...I will find others like the SWALE (best e/l is the winner)


PPgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
11 Sharp Humor 29.60 10.80 6.80
2 Noonmark 3.60 2.80
7 Court Folly 4.60

best e/l's run one and two in the Stymie on Saturday by simply looking at the early /late balances that are the most positive realtive to the field. allows a quick window in how the race will be run.
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 Manchurian 15.20 5.20 2.50
2 Liquor Cabinet (IRE) 2.90 2.10
1 Evening Attire 2.10

[tompkins]

The bottom line here is to show a repeatable, logical and simple alternative waye of using a screen to review a race. Getting into the habit of working out every race the same structured methodical way makes cappers stale.

THREE SIMPLE options occur with new variations can occur.
1) you say, "It will never work and I am not going to every try it. The anal retentive answer.
2) you say, "It could work." You try it and it does not work for you.
3)you say "It could work." You try it and find it adds to the alternative one has in working out a race.

After one uses it, the wagering is up to the indivudual

[tompkins]

But not on BL/BL? How is that possible?

Do not use that screen

[tompkins]

here is that summary using the same lines, so you see that this "order within chaos" is from a different source, so it always behooves the handicapper to be aware that there are OTHER sources that diagnose the running of a contest.

[tompkins]

Richie reported on this one.
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Bourbon Lane 33.80 18.00 10.20
2 Inda Caton 10.00 7.60
8 Wicksy Daniel 15.00

2nd e/l winner wins the race

[admin]

My question was

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by admin
But not on BL/BL? How is that possible?

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


your reply

Do not use that screen
????
Does this mean ....

Your saying "Don't not use the Bottom Lin Betting line "

or

Are you saying I don't use the Bottom Line Betting Line

Once again you give no regard for the reader of you
post

[admin]

My view of this whole post is talked about by Doc

and this was before it was so easy to multi track wager and pick your spots PASS

http://www.bindfold.com/images/DOC__hide.wav

[jms62]

It is also easy with multi track wagering to find a result that matches any theory you want to present and present it as a defacto standard. Give us some statistics as to the winning pct of the Top 2 E/L horses in routes.
Top E/L horses do very well in sprints but it is my opinion that they do not fair as well in routes. I'd look to the combination of LPR and TS.

[admin]

Tompkins

I have gotten to know some of the best handicappers in the world
They don't post here because of these type of idiotic ideas and the subsequent banter
However I do get e mails
I'd rather listen to them
There are three ways To beat races with very low odds horses

#1 Pass
#2 Bet in multi race or exotics using them
# 3 Bet against them if YOUR record indicate they are beatable

Bottom line is Your post and all readouts you have provided say
nothing as they were presented
Why don't you go back and read my reply?

Bill
P.S Excellent Post Jim and Kiltman I appreciate it

[tompkins]

folks caught in the same old reguratation and never want to look a different ideas....that's fine


There is no right nor wrong, only different...challenges to the status always meet with this response,
I see this same thing all the time. PARTICULARLY in government "keep yes men around you all the time, NEVER challenge the status quo" "never even give it a fair shake"


THIS WHOLE THING has NOTHING to do with WAGERING but everything to do with handicapping
THIS WHOLE THING has NOTHING to do with WAGERING but everything to do with handicapping
THIS WHOLE THING has NOTHING to do with WAGERING but everything to do with handicapping
THIS WHOLE THING has NOTHING to do with WAGERING but everything to do with handicapping

[tompkins]

I never use the bottom line readouts. Same info is redundent on other screens

[jms62]

Your early late theory certainly has merit for sprints but I think your are off base in promoting it as the soemething that works as a high probability for routes.. Take a single track and model it for Routes by distance (1 mi, 1'16 1'8) over 20 races and I don't think you will see it as a big factor... As a matter of fact I don't see you turning a flat profit choosing the top 2 E/L in routes over a 20 race period.. When we don't model we tend to just remember the successes. You provided 2 examples but 1 was a sprint (7fr) and the other a route so it really isn't even 2 examples of it working on the same track same day for routes... I'm more of an EPR/TS guy for sprints and LPR/TS guy for routes... Rank both for your contenders and average them and rank the average..

[tompkins]

I'm more of an EPR/TS guy for sprints and LPR/TS guy for routes... Rank both for your contenders and average them and rank the average..
that is very logical

[tompkins]

Aqueduct's third top two e/l's are first and third. This time the winner 2 was 6/1

[tompkins]

Your early late theory certainly has merit for sprints but I think your are off base in promoting it as the soemething that works as a high probability for routes...
Depends on the tracks...works for the ones I follow and admit that I look for tracks that have this profile and stay away from ones that don't

[tompkins]

Tampa's 5th A ROUTE e/l relativity again


that is a bad image...I will do it again

[jms62]

Show me 20 races over a weeks time where it works in routes and I'll buy it.. Otherwise you are just showing us successes without any acknowledgement of when it doesn't work... Presenting the exception as the rule.. Thats how Amway recruits... Hit the 3rd at AQU but wasn't so fortunate on the early horses in the 5th and 7th.. Got the 2 and 7 in the 8th. Top 2 EPR/TS

Update 7 beaten late... 3 Consecutive races where late gets up

[tompkins]

Ideas are presented. Folks try them at the venues they follow. If they work okay, and if they don't okay. I don't have to the time to drag all those screens up for you. Do it yourself...remember all those times the teacher told the class "The proof is left to the student?" Same here

[tompkins]

Update 7 beaten late... 3 Consecutive races where late gets up
maybe on the lines YOU picked. People rarely pick the same lines. I NEVER pick a single line for a race and did not bet the 5th or the 7th so can't comment on that.
You are assuming we are looking at the same pace lines and I doubt that seriously as I use an idea called an "early filter" even after several lines are chosen

[tompkins]

Show me 20 races over a weeks time where it works in routes and I'll buy it.. Otherwise you are just showing us successes without any acknowledgement of when it doesn't work...

I would have to be a rank rookie to suggest admit that ANY angle works all the time. Of course it does not work all the time.

You, and most others are missing the essence of this angle so I will leave it at that.

[jms62]

But you are not and have not been presenting this as an idea to try. You come across like it is the holy grail always showing us results that work yet you refuse to put it through the acid test. I guess I misunderstood your delivery.... As I stated over and over , in sprints your idea is a proven winner. For instance at AQU Inner meet there have been 165 races of 6 fr (non madien) 55% have gone to the 1-2 EPR (not necessarily 1-2 E/L have those numbers but not handy.)

Good luck tomorrow.

[tompkins]

But you are not and have not been presenting this as an idea to try. You come across like it is the holy grail always showing us results that work yet you refuse to put it through the acid test.
This idea is in it's THIRD year of acid test and is still working: NUMBER ONE EPR does not mean number ONE e/l

Got an idea: forget you ever read this and DON'T use it. I don't mind

[tompkins]

over and over even in ROUTES as in the first today at Aqueduct.....Most positive e/l wins an awful lot

[tompkins]

right here http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5639#post5639

[jms62]

This idea is in it's THIRD year of acid test and is still working: NUMBER ONE EPR does not mean number ONE e/l

Got an idea: forget you ever read this and DON'T use it. I don't mind

Don't go getting all hostile there buddy... IF it has been working for 3 years show us your spreadsheet of the last 20 routes at AQU. I would think that if you truly had enough confidence in the idea you would have no problem doing a scientific study on E/L horses in Route races and revel in the victory of your findings... If you are wrong No Big Deal because we all try things that don't pan out and move on... I don't mind you presenting ideas but I take exception that you don't provide any evidence other than "Look it worked in the 5th race at Tampa Bay". There are people on here that are just learning and jump at all these "Great Ideas" and become disillusioned with the software and the methodolgy. I promise if I present an idea I will most certainly provide the statistics to back it up. My old man rest his soul had a saying... "If you can't walk the walk, don't talk the talk".

Once again... Knock em dead tomorrow.

[tompkins]

I don't use spread sheets never have. Discovered this on hand written records that I am certainally NOT going to scan for your pleasure.

LOOK leave it alone. NEVER TRY IT. IT MUST BE WRONG....That's fine

The folks who HAVE tried it write me back all the time and the comments are usually very similar to "It was right there all the time and don't see how I missed it."

There is more than meets the eye hidden in these readouts as this "order within chaos."

HOSTILE no just serious about a point here. Don't care one way or the other whether you accept it, belive it, or pooh pooh it

[tompkins]

D I promise if I present an idea I will most certainly provide the statistics to back it up.
I am pleased to know that, but some of the best ideas I have HEARD from others and then re-discovered by working out races with THAT idea in mind so that I DISCOVER it myself, rather than just view THEIR data


QUOTE:"There are people on here that are just learning and jump at all these "Great Ideas" and become disillusioned with the software and the methodolgy"

This idea is FOR SURE not for newbies and if people get disillusioned so be it. I am not responsible to them

[tompkins]

I wondered for a long time, why speedballs were regularing beating me
at a price. Stopping cold, I reviewd about 700 races at over 15
courses and found THE SAME THING: "Order within chaos" (my name for
the e/l dominance screen over all the others) over and over again.
Still it was so simple that I regularly abandoned it (particularly in
the Summer months when it is LESS a certainty) but it got to the point
where I actually took post-it notes and placed them all over the TV
and the computer with the simple leters "E/L" to remind me how
DOMINANT and how simple this concept remains.

It sounds too easy doesn't it? It has taken me a very long time to
understand how pervasive this idea is at almost every track. It is
more of a thing at the speedy ovals, but, to some degree, at every
track it is there day in and day out.

I was thinking that whatever "insider number" I would EVER find would
be a tough one to understand. Was I wrong!

It has just taken me a long time to accept it.

[tompkins]

In an outlandish example of e/l's, the 6th at Philly today showed an
order that repeats alot: the top two RELATIVELY often hit in the
splitzacta. EVERY horse here was really early.
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Ronnigan Carlos M. Cruz 16.20 7.00 4.60
2 Blue's Nugget Joanne McDaid 6.00 4.00
1 Little Fever Felix L. Ortiz 7.40

e/ls (line chosen) were
1(line1) 33.1
2(1) 22.8
5(1) 18.7
5(2) 23.8
8(1) 27.5
10(2) 6.0 these were maiden and the track was off, but the RELATIVITY of these STILL HELD UP...can send anyone the card if they want it.....a pattern that is there all the time with the HIGHER e/l usually coming in third

[tompkins]

A simple yes or no without the personality digs would have been more constructive BILL...It's simply an idea to take or leave NOT a popularity contest. this idea, if coming out of the "inner group" would not have been made with such biased evaluation choices.

Reminds me a lot of when my late wife and I tried out for The Newlywed Game in 1969. You had to give one of 4 answers to questions and they would stack the deck against you : i.e.. "My mother in law is MOST like" 1) a pig 2) a snake 3) a cow 4) a cockroach....We lost out becasue we refused to answer ANY of the choices when posed like that. Your survey is set up EXACTLY THE SAME WAY: to insure it makes this look bad, with few choices there positive.

[tompkins]

this is not new, but this is just a new WAY to find it via OUR readouts that others don't have.

Quirin wrote about it and now with have Quirin Points.

Steve Klein wrote about it as in this review:" What Klein provides is not the Rosetta Stone of racing, but rather an affirmation of what critics will say we already knew--early speed is the universal bias in racing.But Klein goes further.He doesn't just prove up early speed's influence, he provides a solid (if in-artful) way of determining how a race will shape up by the first call.His surprisingly simple formula makes the Quirin Speed Point obsolete. I highly recommend this book to horseplayers, especially those advanced enough to understand the significance of the scale of Klein's study.Any expert horseplayer that can put aside the arrogance of his close-minded commitment to his own hunches, rules, and opinions can undoubtedly benefit from this treatise and avoid the inevitable award of stubborn inflexibility--a slow, grinding loss at the track. The statistics in this book overwhelmingly establish what should have been known by any horseplayer worth a two dollar bet--find the speed in a race and you are a length away from the winner."

[jms62]

maybe on the lines YOU picked. People rarely pick the same lines. I NEVER pick a single line for a race and did not bet the 5th or the 7th so can't comment on that.
You are assuming we are looking at the same pace lines and I doubt that seriously as I use an idea called an "early filter" even after several lines are chosen

I pick best of the last 3 at a comparable distance within the horses normal E/L profile Doc... Am I wrong ?

[admin]

I pick best of the last 3 at a comparable distance within the horses normal E/L profile Doc... Am I wrong ?

Yes and also adding a bit of
comperable compitition factor

GS
Bill

[admin]

A simple yes or no without the personality digs would have been more constructive BILL...It's simply an idea to take or leave NOT a popularity contest. this idea, if coming out of the "inner group" would not have been made with such biased evaluation choices.

Reminds me a lot of when my late wife and I tried out for The Newlywed Game in 1969. You had to give one of 4 answers to questions and they would stack the deck against you : i.e.. "My mother in law is MOST like" 1) a pig 2) a snake 3) a cow 4) a cockroach....We lost out becasue we refused to answer ANY of the choices when posed like that. Your survey is set up EXACTLY THE SAME WAY: to insure it makes this look bad, with few choices there positive.

Tim I set up the poll with Yes and No to a degree

You should be happy with the results so far
I added the expanded questions to generate discussion
I am hoping that the expanded questions will show those who are interested in this topic which is one of the most viewed ever
the full benifit of your method
If it was a popularity contest then yes and no would be fine

I also select not to show names of posters who voted
I have no idea either ... I don't want to know
I will tell you I voted for # 2 Its not presented properly
I don't see what is being described ..

Thats it for now Im not saying anything good or bad
since I still don't seee what your showing because your description is
not helping me The screen shots and results are not giving me a feel
for what your saying

my suggestion is a full step by step of how you do a race
after the fact is fine The follow up is full of after the fact
races
I don't need the philly file .I will do the race you just showed
however you posted that it was from Today?
I checked and can't find any race 6 winners for the last 8 cards from race 6 named Ronnigan
This is why I voted for # 2

Which day/race are you showing
Thanks
Bill

[Ted Craven]

Which day/race are you showing
Thanks
Bill I believe Tim's original post (the title) said it was PHA Jan 18, 2006, race #6. (ran 8-2-1)

Ted

[tompkins]

I pick best of the last 3 at a comparable distance within the horses normal E/L profile Doc... Am I wrong ?
There is NO right NO wrong ONLY DIFFERENT WAYS TO USE THE SAME TOOL

ONE of OUR many differences: I use a choice of best ot last three comparable and then a SECOND qualifier. It is TWO lines, often MORE, that gives me these horses. I look for the TREND of the lines NOT basing conclusions on the possilbe SAMPLE error of a single line no matter how good that ONE looks.

I sincerely believe that this shows a horse's "improving early speed" or something akin to that or possibly the ABILITY to have run to an earlier energy distirbution that OTHERS in the race do not have.. That is a classic handicapping factor.


This has been a corollary to that other idea I published of using the top five EPR's in exotics once the outrageous ones have been dismissed. It is all in the same vein.

[tompkins]

8-7-1 e/l relativity to all three finishers

gm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Ruling Star Norberto Arroyo, Jr. 10.40 4.80 2.70
7 Atfirst Blush Ramon A. Dominguez 5.40 2.80
1 One Tough Dude Alan Garcia 2.10
Also ran: 3 - Luke's Flash , 6 - August Song , 2 - Allisons Smile , 5 - Cat's a Rockin

TOP FOUR FINISHERS

[tompkins]

can't make this up in the Aqueduct 7th

6-4-9 although THIS one was not the greatest BETTING race.
6 Backchat Jose A. Santos 3.00 2.20 2.10
4 Interline Ramon A. Dominguez 3.50 2.50
9 Bredwinner Richard Migliore 4.10
Also ran: 1 - Upthecreekwithali , 3 - Pleasant Fiction , 8 - Elements , 7 - Colonial Silver , 5 - Tech Valley

[tompkins]

The Toboggon today at Aqueduct the 4 got mugged and was steadied then checked hard but the "second string" e/l's came through as the top two finshers.

8th race - Aqueduct - March 11, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Kazoo 13.00 6.40 4.70
2 Bishop Court Hill 4.20 3.20
6 Wild Jam 3.50

$2 Exacta 1-2 43.80
$2 Trifecta 1-2-6 132.50

[tompkins]

I want to reiterate someting I stated earlier in that I tend to LOOK FOR TRACKS that support this internal "order within chaos," and NOT having TRIED to DIS-PROVE it, I have not looked at tracks too long where it did not work as well. So far it has worked at about 15.

No angles are universal. One looks to find what the crowd does not see at a venue they are comfortable with.

[tompkins]

putting this up at 8 minutes to post. Let's see if this same "order" shows up again. ODDS say no wager.

[tompkins]

in another ROUTE the top three e/l's run in the top three spots, but no bet.."order within chaos" still there.

10th race - Oaklawn Park - March 11, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Round Pond 3.20 2.20 2.20
2 Happy Ticket 2.40 2.20
6 Platinum Ballet 2.80

[tompkins]

1th race - Oaklawn Park - March 11, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Sayhellotolarry 5.20 3.60 3.20
1 R's Star 11.00 5.60
3 Instant Messenger 6.00

a route again so THINGS just don't repeat this often without there being something to it.

[tompkins]

Yes and also adding a bit of
comperable compitition factor


EYES wide open: you JUST consider what the HORSE did, not the trainer, not the rider, not the track (unless this one is 0 for 10 and it is off today) not the horses next to him, JUST THE HORSE. As I understand it the HORSE's energy and energy distribution are what we look at.

[tompkins]

that last post missed the mark: I mean we are looking at HORSES, NOT performances

[admin]

Hi Mr Tompkins
This is race 5 from Sat.0311
I think you can use this. By doing this step by step- I can more clearly
get a better idea of what your showing
I know you will like these results

Here are my pace lines I'm using Val 3
maybe you can show what happens on Spec

Lines
Horse 1 Line 2 SR = 74 I see the 87 for line 1 in the mud
This horse can't run over a 74 on a fast track
Horse 1a Scr
Horse 2 Line 1 SR = 84
Horse 3 No Line
Horse 4 Line 1 SR = 83
Horse 5 No Line
Horse 6 Line 2 SR = 86
Horse 7 Line 4 SR =78
Horse 8 Line 2 SR = 83

Total Energy/PLS Eliminations

Take out Horse # 1

Top 5 contenders

BL/BL - VDC
6 6
2 2 - 4
4 8
8 7
7

and now the late/ early graph

The 6 and 8 are the top 2 most early and also Ranked 1 and 2 Total Energy


The results
8 $21.20 $8.00 $5.40
6 $5.60 $5.00
7 $3.80

[jms62]

As stated previously... It has merit for sprints... It'll catch a few winners for Routes... Mr. Tompkins won't share or doesn't have statistics on its long term performance in routes so I <B>CAUTION<B> anyone on applying it without running a 20 race test....

[admin]

It does seem like it would not work so well
on routes
I also believe its the Total Energy readout thats
the key, In my example the 8 closed !

[jms62]

I break my Handicapping into "Sessions" at a paticular track.. I define a session as a period between breaks. For instance AQU is dark Mon-Tues so my "Session" is Wed-Sun. This Session so far March 8-11 in the 6 fr races I track (no madien) finds that horses ranked 1-2 E/L have won 7 out of 11 races... Many times I've seen biases not carry over to the first race day of a new "session". Often times I've wondered if the maintence of the track that goes on in the dark days is done to intentially eliminate such biases...

[tompkins]

It does seem like it would not work so well
on routes
I also believe its the Total Energy readout thats
the key, In my example the 8 closed !

You totally missed the point so of course it won't come out that way. I has EVERYTHING to do with seeing a SECOND, earlier line for the same horse CLOSE to the time the OTHER line is there. It is the combination of the TWO lines one looks for and you didn't do antying like that (going back to a single line) so of course it won't come close to working.

[tompkins]

As stated previously... It has merit for sprints... It'll catch a few winners for Routes... Mr. Tompkins won't share or doesn't have statistics on its long term performance in routes so I <B>CAUTION<B> anyone on applying it without running a 20 race test....
I worked TWO tracks yesterday and look at the ones put up SEVERAL....SOMETHING THAT PERVASIVE IS NOT AN ACCIDENT. again the proof is left to the student

[tompkins]

Change, even the IDEA of change, is such a foreign concept to people that given the opportunity to try something different or stay EXACTLY the same, the vast majority would not even attempt to consider ANTHING other than what they have done all along. THis is just simple human nature that I have contended with it for years in my practice. it is such a pervasive thing that the same idea (resistance to change) is even in the Declaration of Independence: "all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed."

Human nature does not change so why should individuals? You have to look at the single screen and multiple lines for this to work, NOT stay in the same mindset you were before selecting SINGLE lines....of course it won't work then. I had a long resistance to this as well, so I am not suprised.

To see if an angle works one must do the same things one did in finding that angle, not bias it by NOT even following the same protocols.

Like I said: if it doesn't work for you (or even TRY it) don't tell me it doesn't work akin to Judge Judy's great book title "Don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining."

[tompkins]

1st race - Aqueduct - March 12, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Whoa 5.80 4.60 3.80
2 Finnegans in Again 5.40 4.20
8 Blaise Pascale 7.30

another ROUTE where 2 out of the top three e/'s ran one/two

[tompkins]

3rd at the big A: top three=top three finishers and, like in many a sprint, the TOP e/l ran third
3rd race - Aqueduct - March 12, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Grand Idea 7.90 2.90 2.40
2 Jodif 2.30 2.10
3 Miz Yah Beaux 5.10

$2 Exacta 5-2 18.40
$2 Trifecta 5-2-3 86.50

[tompkins]

Another route and this one keeps rolling along. Winner is one of the top TWO e/l positives. I KNOW it is hard to believe as it took me a long time to accept it, but there it is AGAIN.
4th race - Aqueduct - March 12, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 C Senor 23.60 7.80 5.40
8 Big Boo Boo 3.70 2.70
2 He's Up to Snuff 2.90

$2 Exacta 6-8 81.50
$2 Quinella 6-8 43.40
$2 Trifecta 6-8-2 278.00

[tompkins]

amazing.....and this track has produced a smilar SUB STRUCTURE now for over three years

h race - Aqueduct - March 12, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Majestic Karakorum 61.00 18.80 9.20
2 Top Secret Speed 4.50 3.00
4 Western Accent 3.10

$2 Exacta 3-2 247.50
$2 Superfecta 3-2-4-6 10,211.00 TOP FOUR E/L's right here
$2 Trifecta 3-2-4 658.00

[tompkins]

another route
Winning Time: 1:43.62
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 Count On Me Harry Vega 6.60 3.60 2.60
6 Devil's Mark Anthony S. Black 3.20 2.80
3 Go North Na Somsanith 4.00

[tompkins]

Winning Time: 1:42.82
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Most Bossest Harry Vega 8.20 3.80 2.40
5 Exit Four Frankie Pennington 3.20 2.40
4 In Depth Look Joanne McDaid 2.20
Also ran: 6 - Afleet Deputy , 7 - Unbridled Will , 2 - Longfamilycalling , 8 - Rustlite

[tompkins]

gm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
7 Another Way Eriluis Vaz 3.20 2.20 2.20
2 Before Today Jose Luis Flores 7.00 4.60
9 Bajer M Yamil Rosario 2.40
Also ran: 1 - Bernie's Crypt , 4 - Goodlooking Guy , 3 - Crypto's Dream , 5 - My Boy Anthony

[admin]

This one was easier for me to grasp

from RichieP's thread demo race
Top 3 Early with Total Energy dominate this time
in the trifecta

10 New Opportunity Deshawn L. Parker 17.20 7.80 3.80
6 Jersey Monster Oswald M. Pereira 3.60 3.00
3 May Boy Benjamin Marcial 3.80

[jms62]

Tompkins.. No MAS with the sprints eh... They never were questioned... I'm sure you'll join us this week for our Derby Prep picks using your E/L methodolgy.. I'd be interested in seeing it in Action in REALTIME.

[tompkins]

again and again with the same junk: handicapping factors DO NOT CHANGE no matter the TIME they occur. The relationships of these numbers are no different 4 hours before or 4 hours after a race. route upon route is presented. I do not NOW, nor will ever participate in handicapping contests unless it is me versus the parimutuel which is my ONLY adversary.

[jms62]

The relationships of these numbers are no different 4 hours before or 4 hours after a race. route upon route is presented. I do not NOW, nor will ever participate in handicapping contests unless it is me versus the parimutuel which is my ONLY adversary.

I think I made my point Doc... You are an Expert at choosing lines after the race is won to justify the position you are trying to present... I was born at Night Doc, but not last night....

[tompkins]

I think I made my point Doc... You are an Expert at choosing lines after the race is won to justify the position you are trying to present... I was born at Night Doc, but not last night....
A common compalint to those OBSESSED with the temperal aspects of this game....Like I said, simply don't use it and HINT: they were ALL chosen before not retro-engineered. The actual discovery was made after going back to complete cards over the years:JUST LIKE MOST DISCOVERIES, you find them through REVEIW.

[tompkins]

3rd race - Tampa Bay Downs - March 14, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Payback 35.00 9.80 7.00
10 Sage's Dream 4.00 4.00
8 Nana's Secret 6.00

$2 Exacta 7-10 181.20

[tompkins]

th race - Philadelphia Park - March 14, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 High Rise Pro 11.20 4.00 2.80
2 Evening Kathy 3.40 2.20
5 Our Celeste 2.40

$2 Exacta 6-2 33.20 two of the top three e/ls for the exacta....relative. I can't even TRY to make them up this fast

[tompkins]

th race - Philadelphia Park - March 14, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 High Rise Pro 11.20 4.00 2.80
2 Evening Kathy 3.40 2.20
5 Our Celeste 2.40

$2 Exacta 6-2 33.20 two of the top three e/ls for the exacta....relative. I can't even TRY to make them up this fast if you check the clock relative the race

[jms62]

Ok Doc... First race at AQU 8.5 Fl, I have 1 and 4 as top 2 E/L... Agree ? I bet them in your honor... Wish me luck...

[RichieP]

Ok Doc... First race at AQU 8.5 Fl, I have 1 and 4 as top 2 E/L... Agree ? I bet them in your honor... Wish me luck...

The way I select lines I get the 5 and 7 on the e/l screen JM.Only using lines that the horse has run the style at previously. Amazing. 4 different horses.

Tim who do you see??

Richie

[RichieP]

here are the rest of the screen shots

[RichieP]

This outlined method is kicking ass at Mnr at the 8.3f distance. 4 for 4 in top 2 e/l including a 34 dollar winner. The top ranked Epr horse is the winner in every one of the 4 races over 3 nights.

At the 8f distance it is getting it's ass kicked going 1 for 8 in the top 2 e/l with the 1 winner paying 6 bucks. Same track. Different distance. At this 8f distance the top 2 FX horses have won EVERY race. EVERY race.

One size does NOT fit all guys. Let's be REAL.

I have spreadsheets, paceline selections marked, track condition etc etc available. While my application of the software is not the best my recordkeeping IS the best.

safe day
Richie

[RichieP]

Tim,
Do you know why it is important to either explain YOUR method or demonstrate with screenshots BEFORE the race? Honestly do you know why?

It's the LITTLE things man. The "what-if's" and the "but whatabout this" stuff. You can post all u want right after the race. It is NOT the same.

Show YOUR thought processes before the race.These most important thoughts will be reflected in screen shots. After the race is all just tap dancing around the issues that hit ALL of us BEFORE the race. Take a look at the differences in mine and JMS screen shots. I am SURE yours will be different also. But seeing it after the race means **** cause any possible ISSUES that come in almost EVERY race have sorted themselves out by the race running. Does this make sense? Honestly.

You have put up numerous races from:
Aqu
Tam
Gp
Pha

if you are so quick to put up these races right after they run and then make a POINT to say that in a post what is the problem demonstrating the shots BEFORE the race?

The ONLY problem I can see is when one of those damn " BUT WHAT ABOUT THIS" issues hits and we lose a race cause of it. It happens to me almost every day I wager. No SHAME in it unless you are trying to be perfect.

Regards
Richie

[MIKE]

Exactly Rich!!!

The thing with the methodology, is that everyone uses different pace lines, so everyone's readouts are going to be different!!!
It is a "personalized" handicapping tool!!!

[jms62]

The way I select lines I get the 5 and 7 on the e/l screen JM.Only using lines that the horse has run the style at previously. Amazing. 4 different horses.

Tim who do you see??

Richie
Rich.. I didn't really understand how Doc picked his lines but I noticed that he used more than 1 so I picked best 2 competitive SR's out of the last 3 at Comp distance structure...

[tompkins]

First, the second line DOES NOT, repeat DOES NOT have to be the same distance. What this appears to catch is improving early speed.

Second the 7 in the first race AQU 3/15 has that pesky "going off form" angle: last three total going down and %median going up as this shows so I might think twice about that one.

[tompkins]

to find out if improving early is REALLY there to consider, do things like this for, let's say the rail horse #1.

[socantra]

Tim,

I've been through this thread five times, and I still can not see exactly what it is you have discovered, except that if you look for something hard enough, you will find it.

I will grant you the fact that early speed wins the majority of races. The evidence is overwhelming, more predominant in sprints than in routes, but its there in both.

Your examples though, are all over the place. At one point you say that you have to use multiple lines, that it won't work with single lines, but at several other points you have used only one line as supposedly representative examples of your discovery.

At another point I noticed you had a horse ranked high in total energy that ran late, yet to find your example early race, you went back to a line where the horse ran poorly and its total energy ranked "X" to find your early line.

In short, I can't for the life of me find any sort of coherrent methodology in your "discovery". From my perspective it appears that you are so firmly committed to your idea that early speed wins everything, that you will search until you find the picture that fits your frame.

Luckily, early speed wins enough that you will find it fairly often. That's great for you. You will however, totally miss the races that early speed doesn't win, which often pay quite healthy mutuels. There are many ways to approach the handicapping process. I'm glad yours works for you, but I think a more balanced perspective might be more productive for others

I expect your response will be your traditional response to those who disagree with you, that they are stuck in the past and can't see the future and the brilliance of your methods because of their hidebound ways. That's always possible, but I spend an awful lot of time looking for new ways to view the races and the readouts and though I am fond of the things that have been profitable for me in the past, I have been known to abandon a number of things that ceased to produce a profit and move in new directions.

I just can't see any consistancy of judgement in your supposed evidence. Call it thin slicing or whatever you want; it looks too much to me like you've reached your conclusion already and are carefully evaluating your evidence in a way that fits that conclusion.

Good Skill,
Dick...

[tompkins]

quote:"I expect your response will be your traditional response to those who disagree with you, that they are stuck in the past and can't see the future and the brilliance of your methods because of their hidebound ways. That's always possible, but I spend an awful lot of time looking for new ways to view the races and the readouts and though I am fond of the things that have been profitable for me in the past, I have been known to abandon a number of things that ceased to produce a profit and move in new directions." :okay then don't use it and stay with what works for you. I am not trying to change anything just point out something I found. There are no rules in the way ANY of us use these. I would really like a Quote as to my saying brilliance however.

here is the 7's last three and it shows decreasing velocity and decreasing deceleration although the wide trip could be PART of it.

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=tompkins]okay then don't use it and stay with what works for you. I am not trying to change anythign just point out something I found. There are no rules in the way ANY of us use these.

Tim,

See this is what I am trying to say to you. Use WHAT????

WHAT are you showing? Will you PLEASE consider posting FIVE races showing YOUR screen BEFORE they run ALONG with reasons WHY you made decisions YOU did.

Please take the time to give something here. This site is exploding in growth whether anyone likes it or not ok?

Take the time to share part of YOU with everyone. That includes thought processes which can only be REAL before the race is run. I dont give a **** about selections ok? I really dont. I DO want to see screen shots of YOUR work to get an idea of what you are attempting to show.

PLEASE.

I will stay out of your thread now ok?

regards
Richie

[socantra]

See this is what I am trying to say to you. Use WHAT????

WHAT are you showing? Will you PLEASE consider posting FIVE races showing YOUR screen BEFORE they run ALONG with reasons WHY you made decisions YOU did.

Take the time to share part of YOU with everyone. That includes thought processes which can only be REAL before the race is run. I dont give a **** about selections ok? I really dont. I DO want to see screen shots of YOUR work to get an idea of what you are attempting to show.

PLEASE.

Richie

Tim,

That's also what I'm saying. I wouldn't have gone over the thread five times if I wasn't interested in what you had to say. I was hoping to learn something, but all you do is rapid fire snippets of contradictory information.

The process is the important thing. I'm not intersted in your picks either and this is not a test. Nobody expects you to be right all the time. I certainly lose more than I win.

Please share the process of how you reached these choices rather than some vague idea of finding another line that fits what you are looking for.

Dick..,

PS: I supposse brilliance is not the right word. I deon't remember the rap word for word, but I guess that 'dexterity' is the impression I always get.(G)

[Ted Craven]

Tim,

Some of us are working a few races at EVD tonight (3/15) as an educational exercise for some new Speculator users (Jon Lee, BobbyB, Bill, me, others?) Perhaps you could post some pre-race selection methodology and analysis on a few races so we can absorb your particular take on the process.

See the threads under Beginner/Basics section.

Cheers,

Ted

[tompkins]

I have NO experience with that track and am working tonight.

[tompkins]

ANYONE can work this out since there are SO FEW PACELINES one cannot miss when putting recently close ones in. another route, but a maiden where there is a premium on early speed 4-6-1A

[tompkins]

then here is how I looked BACK AT IT: there is the relativity again......5th total energy too
th race - Aqueduct - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Regally 9.10 4.60 2.90
6 The Flying Wasp 28.40 8.30
1A Shining Wood 2.80

$2 Exacta 4-6 224.00
$2 Quinella 4-6 101.50

I have NO idea, other than improving early, what is at the heart of this, but it just repeats and repeats

[tompkins]

with 5 until post am just throwing it up here to see what happens as the 8 (ON PAPER) looks to overwhelm this by velocity. Let's see

[jms62]

I'm absolutely flabbergasted that you continue to post after the fact results after all the postings made today requesting otherwise... You are the worlds best retro-capper ;)... Lots of luck.. Maybe something good came out of this... I usually bet a big Super Ticket for the Derby/Preakness and Belmont (actually hit the Preakness 2 years in a row)... Maybe your method can help me find some underneath horses...

[admin]

then here is how I looked BACK AT IT: there is the relativity again......5th total energy too
th race - Aqueduct - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Regally 9.10 4.60 2.90
6 The Flying Wasp 28.40 8.30
1A Shining Wood 2.80

$2 Exacta 4-6 224.00
$2 Quinella 4-6 101.50

I have NO idea, other than improving early, what is at the heart of this, but it just repeats and repeats

Hi Tompkins

My mistake I think your talking about the Place horse #6 who paid $28.00??
Hate to be a pest, Once again I ask you to be a little bit more careful
The winner is number 4 ? correct I see two lines for the winner #4
line 2 is 4th Total Energy
line 1 is 8th Total Energy

I also see you used two lines for the Horse 2 and 6
1 line for each of the entry 1 and 1a
1 line for the 7 and 5 and no lines for the 3

With no explanation of which lines you a re using and
no mention why some horses have multible lines and others
have single lines and not hiding
how can you sat the winner was Total Energy 5

Please clarify this
Thanks Bill

[tompkins]

Don't look at total energy. THIS IDEA IS NOT ABOUT FINDING A SINGLE HORSE but more an idea of how the FIELD will run relative to ne another.

[admin]

Don't look at total energy. THIS IDEA IS NOT ABOUT FINDING A SINGLE HORSE but more an idea of how the FIELD will run relative to ne another.

Are you saying YOU don't look at Total Energy
or are you telling people not to look at Total Energy...
Strange if you are ...
Reasons why The way you present you method
has no legs You only show races cherry picked.. Pacelines used
are not discussed ...You provide no other data except the E/L
screen and you post the results
My thinking is you are looking for races that fit your method
not a way to teach your method

Please don't shout and Please dont tell me not to look at Total Energy
You posted the horse was 5th total energy
a fact that you dance around once again

You tell him Doc.. Go ahead
http://www.bindfold.com/cmps_index.php =
Doc talks about Total Energy video with sound

[tompkins]

I did not tell anyone, you, Madonna or Dubyah to do anything. I do not give a hoot about rules or what it might say in some ancient journal of STATIC ideas. Those works only present a STARTING point to one's progression in the use of ideas.

Actually the kernal of this idea goes back to Thoromation where you were instructed to EQUATE the total energy of horses (usually in allowance and stakes races) just to see their relative energy distribution differences.

Funny, I've introduced this idea in three separate places and been called a LIAR at pricesly ONE, but then what else is new here? Most responses were akin to this: "interesting idea and I will see if it works at the tracks I play."

[jms62]

."Funny, I've introduced this idea in three separate places and been called a LIAR at pricesly ONE, but then what else is new here? Most responses were akin to this: "interesting idea and I will see if it works at the tracks I play."

First off no one is calling you a "liar".. Secondly one of the places you post is SartinAlums and we all know "Fredom of Speech" is not alive and well on that board especially when one is critical of the chosen ones. Thirdly drop the "Then Don't do it" crap because quite frankly it is juvenile...

You have an idea.. We are all looking for ideas that make us more profitable. You are not presenting it in a scientific way where it can be reproduced and verified. You refuse to do it realtime. You refuse to show us your models of its success rate..... In sprints I think you'll hit in the high 40%'s. Will this show a profit , considering all the chalk involved ? I don't know but I certainly have an opinion.. In routes it defies basic logic. A horse just has so much energy to burn in a race and burning it Early in a route will deplete the tank... All horses are not Ruffian.... You are presenting the exception as the rule just like Amway with benefit of the RESULT to allow for proper paceline selection...

[socantra]

Funny, I've introduced this idea in three separate places and been called a LIAR at pricesly ONE, but then what else is new here? Most responses were akin to this: "interesting idea and I will see if it works at the tracks I play."

I also haven't seen anyone call you a LIAR. I believe you have been inconsistent, disengenuous, at times incoherent, evasive and prone to attack when pressed for details, but I haven't seen anyone call you a liar.

Where was the third place you introduced these ideas? Maybe I can make more sense of them there.

Dick...

[admin]

Tompkins
I am very offended by your remark
And it also says a lot

I, and the two or three or four other gentleman who have replied to this thread, Have also been very patiently waiting for you to offer any more documentation of this method.

Everyone has been courteous and given you plenty of chances
By asking you either direct questions or
As is my case pointing out possible errors in your presentation
that could cause confusion
For you to accuse us of calling you a liar is just another fact that you can not show
any evidence of

What is said elsewhere I have no control over ..
If you read some where somebody say we are calling you a liar
That is your yes men loving up to you ....
either that or maybe its in your head

You take a very original road when you post your ideas That's fine..
However by taking the road you do run the risk of looking and acting like you are now

No body is calling you a liar
you are only giving some of us that impression
be presenting your argument in this way

GS
Bill

[tompkins]

FROM PACEADVANTAGE:
I have used what i call "a 2 race improvement" for quite a while (actually it's measured over the last 3 races not just 2), and it does point to many winners. Basicly I use the Bris E1, E2, LP figures. I look at the 2nd race back and if the E1 and E2 figures were higher than the 3rd race back but the LP was lower, he starts to get my attention. Then I look at his last race, if, in his last race, he declined in E1 and E2 but improved in LP, then I say he has improved at all 3 pace calls over his last 3 races and often he will run his best today. It works pretty often, although you have to look at those 3 races and factor in the time between races, trainer philosophy, race distances, etc. Works can verify the improvement, too.

Often, when a horse's E1 and E2 figures decline in his last race, the public will not support him because they have been drilled with the early speed thing so much that they don't notice that he has already improved that part of his game and now has finished strong, thus projecting signs of being ready for a very good, complete, performance now, especially if the pace today is a mild one. Because of the lack of support by the public he can go off as an overlay, sometimes a substantial one.

[socantra]

That's a nice concise description from Raybo. I understand what he's talking about. I also found this on PA from 46zilzal.

"I have been experimenting in what I call an "early filter" and it has done marvelously. I think, but cannot prove, that it finds improving early speed in horses a race or two before they show the balance of that improvement. Using TWO lines, I simply hide the "later" one (better move to the second call between them) and then only compare those that rank in the top 3-5 earlies.........
Usually use a second line that was CLOSE (usually last three) but does NOT limit to the same distance..............
I think it is hidden "improving early speed"

Another nice explanation, though it did take several messages. Is this what you are taliking about?

If so, you might have saved us all a whole lot of trouble by just laying it out, without all extraneous nonsense; the rapid fire cryptic phrases, tons of examples with no explanation and interminable lectures about our resistance to change. It sounds like something worth looking at to me.

Dick...

[tompkins]

yup

[tompkins]

this is an angle about looking for TRENDS and you need to look at several lines to PROJECT where a horse most likely will move today. Without looking a SEVERAL lines this angle is impossible.

[tompkins]

night cap today at Aqueduct had a good example of this angle at a good price too.
9th race - Aqueduct - March 24, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Voryias 34.00 14.60 8.50
8 Shots 9.70 7.00
5 Netcong 8.20

adn BILL will be happy to know it was a PHILLY shipper as well

[admin]

Spec150
Led me to a $27.40 winner


4 Diamond Fury $27.40 8.60 $5.60
3 Wing Kai $3.00 $2.60
2 Savonarola $6.80

[tompkins]

7th race - Santa Anita Park - March 24, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Whata Soldier 15.60 8.20 5.00
5 Lock And Key (IRE) 7.60 4.80
3 Ulistnintome 2.40

[tompkins]

its still all relative
5th race - Aqueduct - March 31, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Last Empress 56.00 15.20 5.40
1 Shining Wood 3.10 2.20
6 Angel's Melodee 2.50

the relatively EARLY of the e/l's do well as these top three did here

[admin]

Winner # 3

[admin]

Horses 1 4 5 6 and 7
from example race

[admin]

horse 6

[admin]

Horse 5

[admin]

horse 4

[admin]

horse 1

[admin]

here is the full shot of the MUG

[tompkins]

looking at those other screens will only make this confusing. It is, and I hate to admit this, POSITIONAL over velocity a la Brohamer

[tompkins]

8th race - Aqueduct - April 01, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 West Virginia 17.40 8.30 4.70
4 Funny Cide 6.50 3.60
2 Colita 3.10

[tompkins]

then there is the FLIP side of the coin which I missed

8th race - Woodbine - April 01, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Nohoch 60.60 21.50 9.30
3 Bold as Ice 5.60 3.60
1 Pink Brocade 6.

you will RARELY see one this dominant late and TUNNEL vision kept me from seeing it as well.

[tompkins]

1th race - Oaklawn Park - April 01, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Akanti (IRE) 17.40 8.80 5.20
6 Grandstanding 4.80 3.80
4 Lucky Bid 3.60

$2 Daily Double 1-1 37.20
$1 Superfecta 1-6-4-5 2,203.00
$1 Trifecta 1-6-4 167.20

Another SPLITZACTA - projected best run 1st and 3rd and I am giggling to myself at how often I knocked those POSITIONAL guys (they define runnings styles based upon position not velocity) and there is a lot to be said to consider it.

[tompkins]

look at this, same data as above but CUT OFF at the 2nd call and the top three are right there. Lot to be said for the 2nd call in routes as well.

[tompkins]

9th race - Aqueduct - April 06, 2006

Off at: 4:50 Race Type: Claiming
Age Restriction: Four Year Old and Upward
Value of Race: $16,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:54.43
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Breeze On Jean-Luc Samyn 43.40 17.80 8.50
1 Easy Spur Michael J. Luzzi 5.60 4.70
4 Unruly Saint Felix L. Ortiz 4.90

[tompkins]

8th race - Tampa Bay Downs - April 10, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
10 Blazing Heatrix 7.00 5.00 3.60
5 Ci Joe Go 11.00 6.40
4 Sherrillsfordposse 3.80

$2 Exacta 10-5 87.80
$2 Superfecta 10-5-4-2 3,714.40
$2 Trifecta 10-5-4 433.80

[admin]

Horse 2

[admin]

Paceline Horse 3

[admin]

Horse 4

[admin]

Here is the 5
I'm sure you had questions about this one

[admin]

shoot to horse 8

[admin]

and here is the winner Horse 10

[tompkins]

Here is the 5
I'm sure you had questions about this one

only question concerning this was the speed shown at Fort Erie a fluke...NO showed same thing at Woodbine.

ALSO of course ANYONE might have questions since THESE WERE NOT THE SCREENS I USED IN SELECTING THESE LINES.

used the F4 option

[admin]

The winner # 10 was the race favorite
What bothers me abot these examples is the paceline section and omitance
and that low price horses are being shown with poor total energy readouts

Rather than repost all the pace lines again
Im just going to post my selected lines

Horse 1 No line
Horse 2 Line 1 No problem
Horse 3 Last line -Declining speed ratings last 3 = 2 place finish
Horse 4 Because of the bad effort last I will go to line 2 the 66
seems more comperable than the 71 3 back the 66 was
2nd place finish as was the 71
Horse 5 Line 3 Closes to the distance of the last 3
Off a long layoff but with very good workouts
and the 76 SR is the same as the first ever race for
Ci Jo who won as a FTS
Horse 6 No line
Horse 7 No line
Horse 8 Last line SR 65 line 2 is better but that one is from
Hawthorne 342 days ago
Horse 9 No line off 1077 days
Horse 10 Last line no question

Here is the BL/BL top 2 gets the Exacta
and a more likely top 2 rated Total energy
winner for $ 7.00

[admin]

for me a little more klikely position for 7.0 furlongs

[admin]

only question concerning this was the speed shown at Fort Erie a fluke...NO showed same thing at Woodbine.

ALSO of course ANYONE might have questions since THESE WERE NOT THE SCREENS I USED IN SELECTING THESE LINES.

used the F4 option

Were ever you got the lines from
They are the ones you're showing

again my examples are just my veiw of a race with a $7.00 winner
nothing more really to say

[tompkins]

this screen shows the same old thing: Top several epr's just another way to show it. RANK them and there is the tri

[tompkins]

Were ever you got the lines from
They are the ones you're showing

again my examples are just my veiw of a race with a $7.00 winner
nothing more really to say
yes there is a lot more to explain this: it is HOLISITIC and RELATIVE, not dedicated to a SINGLE entity. That is what this entire idea is about and it seems to really slip by SOME FOLKS repeatedly.


ah yes for those who aspire to the same old thing looking at the performance and not the performer

[admin]

Have seen the fears and the slow parade of tears ...
all I see for the winner in 5's - 6's and worse

8th race - Tampa Bay Downs - April 10, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
10 Blazing Heatrix 7.00 5.00 3.60
5 Ci Joe Go 11.00 6.40
4 Sherrillsfordposse 3.80

$2 Exacta 10-5 87.80
$2 Superfecta 10-5-4-2 3,714.40
$2 Trifecta 10-5-4 433.80
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[tompkins]

Quick, go to your DICTIONARY and look up the word RELATIVE, then find someone to explain it to you OVER and OVER until you understand it. HINT: you INTERPRET these readings, one does not take the rankings literally. You review it RELATIVELY......Merriam Webster has a good site for definitions.

Look at the RELATIVE 2nd call positions (this is a sprint): Rank them by performer, NOT performance and the trifecta is right there. Just like I have been saying the top 5 EPR now for years. Once you HIDE the later of the 2nd call lines (using the EARLY filter), you get this screen.

[admin]

Just needed some explaination
From This

http://bindfold.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3105&stc=1&d=1144699641

To This

Nice win Tompkins

[tom]

What is the ealry/late number?
I have gathered it might some relationship of EP (second call) and F3?
What do the numbers signify, ie, is 4.4 to 2.5 a lot, a little?
Does this number relate to balance at all?

Thanks

[admin]

Tom
The lines show you how early or late the horse ran the paceline you enter
It shows a sort of balance but its not related to the Balance number
that is the sum of the Early and Late potential readouts on the
energy generator

Here is a little demo on how the lines are effected by the amount of how a horse runs more or less early

a center line or a stick that is on the center line means the horse ran a balanced or better word Even race

Here is a horse from MNR tonight
Race 6 horse #8

I enetered lines 2 and 3 they are very close in time
Donnella ran both races on or near the lead
in race 2 it faded and finished 1.4 Bl (adjusted ) behind

the next post will show the early late lines for these pace lines

[admin]

Here are the Early late line The readout is telling us that donnela
uses more of its total energy later in the race
in a win line (line 3 ) it ran a -13.0 This most likely a good measure for this horse
Look at line 2 because Donne faded a bit at the end its early late line is a little more towards the middle
the next screen I will show is the original paceline data
On speculator you can edit the lines I will soften up
Donnes race and change is fade to only 1.0 Beaten Lengths

[admin]

I'm going to EDIt line 2 and soften the BL to 1.0
then in the next screen you will see how this slight change effects the
L/E

Here are the lines as is

[admin]

Now I have edited the bl on Donne line 2 i change the BL to
1.0

[admin]

Now you see a slightly different line for Donne 2
Donne 3 stays the same
each readout on this graph is the way the horse ran the paceline you enter

[tom]

Thanks - good answers.
So I profile my track to see what knind of numbers are winning, say a winners needs to be -4.0 to -7.5, or something along those lines?

[admin]

Yes and Doc had me do this for him
make 20 race cycles

I was asked to make 3 headings
Distance
E/L readout
Winner Piad

Doc wanted me to be aware of sprinters who and routers who paid the Higher prices would be slightly later than maybe my model said
He was so sharp, Doing this I eleiminated some false favorites
and it was simply another tool to make decisions when Validator would rate horse very closely



GS
Bill

[tompkins]

1st race - Fort Erie - July 16, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 One Meck of a Lady 11.00 4.60 3.20
8 Claire the Deputy 3.60 3.30
7 Lipstick Cherry 4.50

$2 Triactor 4-8-7 199.40
$2 Exactor 4-8 31.90

[gl45]

Mr. Tompkins,
Have you ever posted one of your selection, win or lose. I have not seen one yet, and you are keeping talking about E/L.
Handicapp a race, explain how did you come up with the final contenders and post your selections, with or without E/L.
Pino

[tompkins]

I put in lots of lines and let the program sort it out. Then I go back and "fidget" with them adding several lines from EACH one to see if this is not an aberration.

[tompkins]

.
Handicap a race, explain how did you come up with the final contenders and post your selections, with or without E/L.


PASS

a lot of people have a "script" that they follow each race. I don't.

[tompkins]

A good freind who is a basketball coach and high school physics teacher in Minnesota discoverd the value of the e/l independently of myself and wrote me this note Monday:

"had a basketball tournament yesterday, our last of the summer, but worked the Woodbine card when I got home last night (my wife is in San Francisco, so I spent lots of time working races). I wish I were home yesterday - just using E/L ranking alone - NOTHING else- you get the 22.70, 25.80, 41.40, 6.40,and $$$84.80 winners!!! 5 of 9 at those prices with zero handicapping. I hope today holds true to the same characteristics."

[admin]

Yes there were many good paying winners at Woodbine
on the 15th

Just a note In case anyone might not know
There really is no E/L ranking

The lines you see are a measure of Energy used either early or late
Each horse's line is a rating of that horses paceline NOT
against any other horse The four digit number and its following ranking
is the horses Total Energy for that same paceline

So there really is no best ranking on E/L graph
except for your own interpitation of the readouts and the match up each race

[tompkins]

no rankings? The more positive ones win more than their fair share. I would call that a ranking just like t.k noted earlier as I quoted.

[tompkins]

it stirkes me as ODD that no one would devote an entire screen to something without it having value. It does, the more relatively positve (within reason), often the better.

[admin]

It amazes me that you can type 30 words in a post and I have no idea what your talking about
who the heck is T.K ? The basketball coach ?
Good for him he cleaned up or so he says
How do we know what lines he used? Contenders ect.

cause thats what this is just a redboard
so knock your self out

[jms62]

Bill you know the drill by now...

1. View Results of every track in the country
2. Select Pacelines for all horses until one is found that shows top E/L Rank
3. Come on board and tell us what a great theory it is and that it continues to work "time after time" without any statistics as to ROI or PCT winners.

I'm glad to see you protecting the newbies from this nonsense.

[RichieP]

My opinions:

1) There IS a ranking that can be looked at on the screen. At some tracks and distances when records are kept it can be VERY powerful. It can also show where speed is NOT what you want to have.

One will not know unless detailed records are kept.

2)There IS a universal bias toward early in dirt racing in North America. So this screen might be another way of seeing it.

3) The poster does have Woodbine as his home track.

4) Late speed and not early speed is being OVERBET.

I respectfully disagree with Doc when he said " the future is in late pace as early has been oportuned so much it's value is gone".

Working races using the Matchup I see over and over again the "sustained" horses not winning anywhere as much as they appear they should. Jim has told me I was emphasizing the chances of sustained horses too much very early on when I started learning from him. Does that mean they don't win? Of course not.

What I don't get is WHY keep posting over and over ( allowing months to go by in the interim) on the same topic ??? Talk about overkill. ok ok we get it.

pay attention to the e/l graph and look for the best early ranked.

now anyone wanting to can do all the "looking" at their own readouts to see what they see. I really think we get the point here man.

Richie

[tompkins]

Before Guy Wadsworth passed away, he thought the early late numbers were important enough
to have discussed a modification to Speculator which would
allow each user the option of entering their MEAN e/l number ( for each distance gleaned as
an average of all the e/l winners at that track and distance) at the outset of each session.
When the calculations came up, rather than the MIDLINE of the e/l being that irrelevant zero
midline, a red line would appear vertically reminding the user of what the establised norm
was for that distance, that track. With this reminder the user then could decide which were
too far out of range. After using a clear ruler over the screen as a test, it was a revelation to
anticipate having a "programmed in" reminder of what was the NORM for each track and
distance (i.e mean for 6 furlongs at Hawthorne 10, Tampa 10.5, Phlly 12, and inner
Aqueudct 14). The user then could update that average with the most recent findings as the
track's season continued as cold weather really made the averages rise positively.

[Houndog]

I like that. Modeling E/L by track and distance. This kind of reminds me of Modeling MUV in Energy by track and distance.