Using the workbook to pound the **** out of this race

[RichieP]

3/13
Track- Mnr
Track condition - muddy
Race 1 - 6f

First here is my Mnr workbook opened to the 6f tab. HERE is your early bias baby. Take a look at Epr, the e/l ranks, e/l numbers especially the last 2 races showing from last night in the mud. SAME track condition tonight.

[RichieP]

here is MY quirky way of using the software. I need to show 2 screens for each horse.

here is the f4 tab on the paceline screen for the 1 horse. I focus on the e/l "styles" to the right. not as much the number but rather the style.

I do not use a one race style for a horse regardless of the power of the line.

horse 1- 2 of 3 lines show pre for style 1 shows early and he has others showing the same. I am comfortable using the best ranked line of the last 3 as my paceline

[RichieP]

ok here is the f3 tab showing the perceptor rank under "tot-r" over on the right.

MY way of choosing pacelines is the best ranked line here assuming the e/l style is valid for the horse. PERIOD.

here that is line 3 as you see.

[RichieP]

next horse is the 2 who is 2 for 96 lifetime. are u serious man?

line 3 is only sprint in last 3 races.

[RichieP]

horse 3

his only sprint in last 3 races is showing him as pre style. NO other line in his pp's shows this. NO way I ever bet this horse to win . Thats just me ok?

here is the screen shot

notice my comment up on top. Let's leave him in to be removed later when finding win bets.

[RichieP]

horse 4 is straightforward

the f4 tab shows all 3 races as ear style

great

[RichieP]

f3 tab for the 4 shows line 3 as best ranked of the 3 races

[RichieP]

all 3 lines for the 5 show ear style

cake

[RichieP]

f3 tab shows line 2 as the best

[RichieP]

horse 6 all 3 races ear style

[RichieP]

f3 tab shows line 2 as best plus it is on the same track condition as tonite

cake

[RichieP]

horse 7 shows 1 sprint in 3 races that race is 14-20 points lower than the contenders

line 2

[RichieP]

the 8 shows 3 sprints in 4 races all with a style of sus

ok

[RichieP]

f3 tab shows last line best

cake

[RichieP]

horse 9 shows ear and e/p style more than once. NOT too keen on pre style

[RichieP]

f3 tab picks the last line as best that is preferred style so all is good with the world
cake

[RichieP]

Here is the winning 10 horse

both sprints are ear style so thats fine

[RichieP]

f3 tab shows line 3 as best. matter of fact best of his 10 races showing.

2 reasons I used this line please:
1) the track that night was off as u see by the "good" track condition. there was definitely moisture in that track and tonight is muddy. GOOD

2) the race immediately following that big number the horse ran a terrific 2nd. That tells ME he is sharp NOW. Throw that last race route out totally. The trainer probably entered him to stretch his legs and maybe darken his look a bit to get a price.

guess what it worked! ;)

f3 tab

[RichieP]

Here is MY way of hiding using Speculator.

1) I keep the top 5 total energy horses
2) I keep the top 5 Perceptor 1 horses.

PERIOD.

in this race

top 5 tot energy - 3-6-8-9-10

screen shot of energy generator

[sdahl]

I like it when you break down a race and share your thought process. I have learned a lot from watching you do this. Thanks Rich.
Stan

[RichieP]

top 5 per-1 horses - 1-3-6-9-10

perceptor screen

[RichieP]

so in THIS race I have 6 contenders left standing.

here is the e/l graph.

model points to the 10-6-9 as far as ranking it ear based on sticks

[RichieP]

here is the corrolary screen

we are looking for EPR here based on model correct?

10-6 are it baby

[RichieP]

the 10 wins the race paying $ 17.20

the 6 runs second

exacta - 70 dollars

CAKE

just like a kid in a candy store. are u serious

[RichieP]

ok this race has taken me over one full HOUR to lay out and post.

This step by step is the EXACT procedure I use to work EVERY race with Speculator. EXACT.

I am working TWO tracks and 2 tracks only:
EVD
MNR

I will add Woodbine when it opens April 1st as that track is tremendous in my opinion.

If you can take something useful from this thread great. If not kick it to the curb.

I am NOT going to do anymore of these as it takes too darn much time and I am at a crossroad in my life.

as far as "what-if's" and "but -what about " stuff?

I run into them EVERY card. I have to answer my own questions. Otherwise I am living someone else's reality and that NEVER works.

much love,
Richie
" I came to the fork in the road and took it" - Yogi

[RichieP]

I like it when you break down a race and share your thought process. I have learned a lot from watching you do this. Thanks Rich.
Stan


Hi Stan,
Thank you so much for the good thought. I swear I hope you can take something good from this and have it work for YOU. I mean that.

Here is to hard work, detailed records and good friends like you!

Tu Salute Stan:)

luv
Richie

[sdahl]

Thank you Rich. You have a big heart. With my work schedule, i will probably be playing night tracks like Evd,Sam Houston and Mnt. With your post and also your workbook for tracking trends i think i am going to do well this year.
Stan

[tompkins]

I will add Woodbine when it opens April 1st as that track is tremendous in my opinion.

Don't get TOO excited:POLYTRACK by July

[tompkins]

so in THIS race I have 6 contenders left standing.

here is the e/l graph.

model points to the 10-6-9 as far as ranking it ear based on sticks
interesting the way that different approaches OFT yield the same results. E/L relativity is alive and well here. as a bet of the top 4 gest the tri.
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
10 New Opportunity Deshawn L. Parker 17.20 7.80 3.80
6 Jersey Monster Oswald M. Pereira 3.60 3.00
3 May Boy Benjamin Marcial 3.80
Also ran: 8 - American Miner , 9 - Judge Louie , 5 - Mellow Cielo , 2 - Gina's Eyes , 1 - Cart Surgin' , 7 - Oro Grand , 4 - Bad Case

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Perfecta 10-6 70.60
$2 Trifecta 10-6-3 452.40

[admin]

Rich
Thank you for the demo
I realize the work that was involved
I am glad you took the time for us

Bill


To the Pace and Cap group....

The facts are there
Please everyone rather than sit back and wait for Rich
"To do me something" as Doc would Say

The thread is here. Just like a bit from the follow Ups
Maybe just crack open these instructions and then use the forum like the
Follow Up

Ask..... but some effort will do you much more good
This is not a contest The work that Rich does is to teach and Help

If your having trouble
ask Us and please try to learn how to post screen shots

But please also remember that this is all free
and so we need to work and Bet Personal emails might be
taking Rich away from his livelyhood

The instructions are there throughout this forum
some effert from each of us can make this work

again Thank you Rich

[RichieP]

In reading my last post just now I hope it doesnt come across as anything vicious man.

Here was my INTENT when writing it. This is the way I use the software. I have only been using it since last Tuesday when I had the nightmare race at Tampa with Val when I didnt bet. I had to give Val it's last rights once and for all. ok.

I spent 18 hours over 2 days ALONE with Spec and 2 race cards. I worked races in various ways looking for BOTH a comfort level and a profitable method. I found the above laid out plan outperformed anything I had tried by quite a bit to be honest.

Is it the best way? Hell NO
Can I improve it with some more experience with the software? YES

What I MEANT was that until I find something SIGNIFICANTLY better I am not going to post any more step by step threads cause THIS thread is EXACTLY what I am doing and WILL be doing until I find better. Then you can bet that I will post it up for you to scrutinize and apply for yourselves to see if it has merit at the track(s) YOU are wagering at.

I got 4 personal emails this morning regarding this thread. What you guys wrote has made my day. I mean that totally man!

Being a long time "loner" it really affected me deeply. That's the God's honest truth.

let's go racing!
Richie

[bobbyb]

A BIG Thank You Richie for providing a "newbie" insight into the inner workings of Spec.
Difficult without a manual, for some, for sure, but your race breakdown was a blessing for me. I am very happy to be a part of a group who care's about it's members, and their willingness to share.

bobbyb:)

[RichieP]

A BIG Thank You Richie for providing a "newbie" insight into the inner workings of Spec.
Difficult without a manual, for some, for sure, but your race breakdown was a blessing for me. I am very happy to be a part of a group who care's about it's members, and their willingness to share.

bobbyb:)

Welcome Bobby!
Listen mill around the site here. Take it all in. Check the e/l relativity thread in the handicapping section. Look at other stuff here. Pre analysis screen on Spec.

Then you can get a real good feel for things that both feel comfortable for YOU and also show some signs of being able to make you PROFIT at the tracks YOU wager at ok? One size really does NOT fit all man.

Consider getting a screen capture thing like the screenhunter software I posted about in the Pace & Cap area. This way you can shoot a picture up of what you are looking at and get virtually INSTANT feedback ok?

Once again welcome Bobby

Richie

[ghostwriter]

Ritchie:

recently joined the speculator group through
Ted C. been real helpful...question...your e/l model,how far back to you go to determine e/l style: 3 races, 6 etc

[RichieP]

Ritchie:

recently joined the speculator group through
Ted C. been real helpful...question...your e/l model,how far back to you go to determine e/l style: 3 races, 6 etc

Hey Ghost,
First welcome!

Good question.

My honest reply would be that right now it's kind of a "feel" thing. I have got burned a couple of times in the past week getting a bit to cute with myself and eliminating horses that really are only fractions apart from a "usual" style if u will. One of these the horse paid over 40 dollars and I was not a happy camper. So I am just milling over the pp's of the horse in front of me and making a decision based on instinct if that makes any sense.

Have you had a chance to work the software a bit? anything that YOU are seeing that might bring some clarity to this? I have only been using the software a bit over 5 weeks now I guess so I am definitely learning **** too.

Lemme know if you see something please ok?

Once again welcome Ghost

Richie:)

[ghostwriter]

Ritchie:

thanks for the reply. your contender selection bases on running styles makes all sorts of sense to me. Not productive to include early horse when late is winning, except if you want to play exacta. One item that guy explained to me and he had spent a lot of time working on, and that is earnings per horse per start. Interesting point....85% of all winners rank within the top 5 of earnings. My problem is I don't know if he meant past,current or at the distance. I tried it at Mnr for a while....worked well but one does miss some good prices with the other 15 percent. Also one does get good prices with the otherwise unreachable using best speed rating. I have been using the software in earnest the last 6 weeks....both of us can more than likely learn from each other.

I like your meticulous approach.

thanks, ghost

[RichieP]

Ritchie:

One item that guy explained to me and he had spent a lot of time working on, and that is earnings per horse per start. Interesting point....85% of all winners rank within the top 5 of earnings.

both of us can more than likely learn from each other.

I like your meticulous approach.

thanks, ghost

Hey Ghost

first off FORGET the 85% earnings thing. it's BS regardless of whatever form u use over an EXTENDED period of races ok? ask me how I know?

I am all for learning so lemme know what u see ok?

Stay cool
Richie

[RichieP]

in NO way was my last post meant to be disrespectful to anyone ok? It is simply NOT true no matter WHICH earnings box u look at. PERIOD.

yes maybe for a short period of time at a specific class level it might click around 80 BUT well

like everything else it's up to us to find the truths and myths in everything

Remember Doc's writing in the followup that the top 5 total energy horses produced 96% winners top 5?? Yea ok?

Maybe with ALL 6 horse fields.

then again there is a bridge over in Brooklyn here that is for sale

[tompkins]

Remember Doc's writing in the followup that the top 5 total energy horses produced 96% winners top 5

I doubt that would hold up to critical evaluation today, PARTICULARLY in sprints