Barb Craven - My Practice Selections

[barb craven]

This is from yesterday just after I found out about the practice week.
I keep my configuration on the defaults except for using DVT range of+/-15. I then put in the automatic PSS best of the last 3 perceptor, then I checked each horse to be sure I had the right line selected using the adjusted screen and checked the workouts if it is a lightly raced horse although in this race at Parx the horses are racing continuously. I then eliminated down to the the top 5 BL/BL using the primary screen. Then, as this is a sprint I started looking at the POH screen for the horses with the best 2nd fraction and second call, which was the #2 and as this is a longer sprint I looked for the horse with the best deceleration which was the #5. Then I moved to the energy screen looking for the best E/EP, again the #2, with the #5 having the best Hidden and TPP. then on to the BL/BL. For me tier 3 wins more times than not. As #5 was #1 BL/BL with lots of red and a good price, he was of course my first bet, with the #2 as my second.
If this was the contest I would have put $50 on the #5 and #2.
26971
Today I will post a route in advance, but I wanted to show how I pick a sprint.

[barb craven]

Sorry, should have posted the outcome.

26974
#2 wins for $15.60
Bet $100, return $390
$2000-$100+$390 = $2290
I actually bet this yesterday, with both the 2 and 5 in an exacta which paid $107

[Bill V.]

Thank You Barb

You did a fantastic job, with the screen shots, the workup and the reporting of the results. and cashing the winning tickets

good skill to you

Bill

PS
I miss Parx :)

[barb craven]

It's there for the taking Bill. It's been paying well lately. I also won the 9th, a 7.5 T that was taken off the turf and lengthened to a mile. I can post that too if you want me to.

[barb craven]

Fields are smaller at Prx today and so are some prices. Race 3. Same parameters as before.
Horse 2, I changed the line from 2 to 1 because I don't like using 5.5 lines for a route.
Horse 3 - I don't like using a line 222 days ago, but the horse had been working out, the last 3 being at 5f.
Horse 7 - I try to keep the line picked to 90 days, but this one had worked out 6 days ago, so I used line 2.
26975
All screens clearly show #5 and #4 as the horses to beat, but I don't like the odds. BL/BL shows #7 as #2 Hid and LPR and DCL and he is a closer.
I'll bet $25 to win on #5,$50 to win on #7 and $25 to place on #7.

[barb craven]

Sorry about that. I was playing this morning with both the 25th and the 26 and posted Race 3 for yesterday instead of today (which I lost). :o I will now do race 5 for today.

[barb craven]

$25 w,p 6
$25 w 4
425 w 2

[Ted Craven]

$25 w,p 6
$25 w 4
425 w 2

This is a good example to use as a reminder of some of the contest rules:

- only 2 horses permitted (you bet on 3 horses - the 2,4,6)

- the Contest Manager would have changed your bet to:

$25 WP 6 = $50
$50 W 4 = $50

Total = $100

The final bet on the #2 would have been dropped. Of course, if you had spotted that before the Off Time, you could simply re-post for that race.

Ted

[barb craven]

This isn't my day today. Not only did I post the wrong days races this morning, but put in too many horses this afternoon. To top off that, I put in the wrong line for horse #6 in Prx race 5.
26982
The second line which I put in this morning is suspiciously high and put him on top. On going over the race after it ran I put in line 3, a more representative line which put him on the bottom and then I would have had the winners, with my favourite tier 3, horse #1, coming in first.:o:o

[Ted Craven]

No worries Mum! That's why we're having this practice week! To get familiar with the rules, to get comfortable with how much attention needs to be paid, to work out the logistics, etc. I understand Bill V is having a think about your question elsewhere re conditional wagering, and will respond soon.

An observation from your Result Chart posts above: if you make them less wide (e.g. less than 1100 pixels wide) we won't have to horizontally scroll the screen to see the entire width of it. For web pages, you can make the browser window less than full screen and the chart web page will resize itself so it is not so wide - then you can still take a screenshot of the whole width of it. Like this, perhaps (1035 pixels wide):

26984

Ted

[barb craven]

$25 w,p 1,8
27008

[barb craven]

$25 w,p 6,4
27009

[barb craven]

I neglected to say that my parameters are the same for all routes at the moment, then choose to bet when I see the odds at 2 MTP. I understand Bill is still considering whether you can change your bets if you post early and by race time the odds fall below a certain limit. My real bets would not be on my first choices if they drop below 2.5. I would probably put more on place of second choice.

[Bill V.]

I have made a decision on allowing conditional wagering
I just need to word it correctly

I will have something soon
Good Skill

[Bill V.]

Hi Barb


Lets say you post The following ....

: I then choose to bet when I see the odds at 2 MTP. I understand Bill is still considering whether you can change your bets if you post early and by race time the odds fall below a certain limit. My real bets would not be on my first choices if they drop below 2.5. I would probably put more on place of second choice.

Here are my issues

1. If in each and every one of your post it
is clearly comminicated as exactly what you want to happen, I can make changes
HOWEVER: Any adjustments that need to be made will based on FINAL ODSS There is no
way I can know what the odds on a horse were at 2 minutes to post

2. This contest does not decide for you to bet on a pre picked race.
Each poster could be able to edit picks right up to post time
provided it is within the allowed edit time available on pace and cap

3. I do not recommend changing selections based on going off odds, for the following reason

Lets say you instruct me to change a bet if if falls below 5/2
Your selections are horse AAA and BBB, you bet $50 to win on each horse,
at 2 minutes to post AAA is 3/1
at 1 minute to post AAA is at 5/2
some late money comes in on AAA
AAA wins the race !
When I see the official tote final odds
AAA ended up going off at 2.40 to 1 it payed 6.80
You posted that if my horse falls below 5/2 - no bet

lets look
You bet $50 - $6.80 x 25 = $170

if AAA went off at 5/2 and pays 7.00
You bet $50 = $7.00 x 25 = $175

You just cost your bankroll $120 profit because of a .20 cent "tick" drop
of the tote board



My suggestions
Post races were you have the chance to watch the board live
or since you know the danger involved
Bet horses with morning line odd at tracks with little or no scratches
that assure the chances they will not get bet down below your desired amount

Again if you go the conditional bet route remember I will score based on FINAL
ODSS only


comments and help on this subject welcome
Nothing is final till June 1

Bill

[barb craven]

Hi Bill, thanks for your reply.

1. Agreed. I only put 2 MPT as a supposition. 0 MPT is of course the only sane way to go.

Instructions as to what a person would want to happen if a horse was scratched, falls below acceptable odds or if a Turf race was taken off the turf would have to be absolutely explicit.

2. I know this; but I have certain tracks I like to play. I don't think I'm alone in saying that when I'm working a race, if I stop to do something else, like change a post because conditions change, I lose my concentration, and a lot of times the race. I know there are a lot out there who can do both, but I can't and I recognize it. That's why I asked about question 1.

3. Maybe my thinking is different, but if horse A falls below acceptable odds and horse B has higher odds, I would rather take the money from horse A and put it on a Place on horse B, which would be in my explicit instructions as per issue #1. This my current style of betting and if we are to put up the way we do things, shouldn't it reflect how each of us that enters the contest works and bets a race?

A good example was today's Prx 7. (not in my pick for today, but one I played). The winner, #1, paid $5.40, the place, #4, paid $11.60. If I had posted the #1 and #4 to win with no instructions to change to a place on #4 if the odds on #1 fell below what is acceptable to me, my bankroll would not have risen as much.

Just my thoughts Bill. You are running the contest and have the most work to do.:)

[Bill V.]

Barb You make great ponts

If clear easy instructions for conditional wagers are included in every post such as you describe I can score the post using FINAL ODDS

I will not be able to remember everybodys betting methods and instructions
Some issues could come up if EACH post is not clearly posted exactly how you want to bet your money.

I understand what you say about betting and moving on to other issues
But there is no way with my own limitations of time I can possibly make changes for you at 2 minutes to post
If your ok with me using final odds and you clearly post on each selection what you want done, I will be able to work with that

Bill

[barb craven]

Of course Bill, explicit instructions must be made with each and every bet as to what you want done should a change become necessary.
You misread me about the 2 MPT thing. 0 MPT is the only sane way to go.
If there is a dispute I would suggest you can re-post the disputer's original instructions with regards to what he/she wanted done if the need for change arose.

[pktruckdriver]

May I say what wonderful post's , reading you 2 is so imformative, so enjoyable, as well as sometimes lucrative, a litlle bit anyway, let me say thank you.


Patrick

[barb craven]

Why thank you Patrick. And many thanks for helping to make this contest possible.:)

[barb craven]

I have gone into detail here so you could see my thought processes for routes, which I prefer (my process is somewhat different for sprints). I have some time today, but don't usually. When I post the BL/BL screen , this is what I do to arrive at it. Is the BL/BL screen enough to post when the contest begins Bill?
I changed my mind on putting a win bet (as shown in my screen shot) on the 7 and just put a place.
$50 to win on the 3 and $25 to place on the 3. $25 to place on the 7. If either horse falls below my criteria of 2.5 odds, I would like that horse withdrawn and the monies attached to that horse put on a place wager of the remaining horse.
I hope these are the instructions you are looking for Bill.

27023

[barb craven]

Where did the winning race go and where did it take place?
27024

[Bill V.]

Hi Barb

Horse # 7 Kudu won The March 3 race on a DQ The horse One Shot finished first but bumped Kudu in the stretch and was placed 3rd

You can see the chart for past races by just right clicking on the race date

Barb is there anyway you can mke you screens a bit bigger
If not non't worry thank you and good skill
and your instructions were good about your conditional bets

Bill

[barb craven]

Sure I can Bill. I just reduced them down because Ted said they were too big. How is this
27029

[Bill V.]

Thats good Barb


Yes I need to make mine smaller too
Yours is a good size now

Bill

[Bill V.]

I'm so sorry

Your 3 won the race. If went off at 3/1 and as far as I could tell
never fell below 5/2 at 2 minutes to post
Your bet as I read it was $50 win $25 place on the 3
and $25 place on the 7

The 3 with apprentice jockey Luis Villanueva could not keep
#3 ZOSOGOOD from interfering with the 6 horse who finised third
Since the 5 Weggie finished ahead of the 6 the 5 was given the win
and the 3 was placed behind the 6 so you don't get your $25 place bet

Good Work with the race even if you didn't get the break

Thanks for the lesson
Bill

[Segwin]

I came upon this thread after a search for DVT. My question though, Barb or Ted, what software do you use to edit pictures? I like way it edits and uses shadows to help out the lines and arrows. Is it GIMP by chance?

[Hoof 11]

I came upon this thread after a search for DVT. My question though, Barb or Ted, what software do you use to edit pictures? I like way it edits and uses shadows to help out the lines and arrows. Is it GIMP by chance?

If you are using Windows, open the screenshot with "Paint", which can be found in Accessories in the Start menu.

Right click on the screenshot, select "open with" and choose "paint" and you're good to go. ;)

[dirty moose]

Hit the "print screen" key on your key board. (Located next to F12)
Open "paint"
Hit Ctrl and V together (paste)
Crop it down to your liking and then "save As..." In order to post you will need to save as a ,jpg file.

Lemme know if you need anymore help.

[Ted Craven]

The screen captures made earlier by Barb used Snagit - lots of markup tools (cheap, but not free). Another good free tool is ScreenHunter Free.

Every Windows version from Vista onwards includes a screen capture tool named 'snippingtool'. It allows you to capture the precise limited rectangle of the screen you want from the start. You don't have to capture everything (i.e. as with Print-Screen key) then edit it down using Paint.

I made a link on the RDSS Desktop to 'snippingtool' with the Screen Capture tool. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. In ALL cases, you can get that utility by simply typing in its name in the Windows Start Menu Search box. I recommend saving images in PNG format - they're a little smaller, no less clear.

Not many markup tools in 'snippingtool', but you can drop the captured image into Paint and use that.

When posting RDSS or other software output images, I strongly recommend you capture the smallest screen rectangle which shows what you want to show - omit the unnecessary bits. A maximum image width should be about 1100 pixels or less.

Good luck!

Ted