Arlington Park Handicappers Graveyard

[trotman]

Anyone who spends anytime handicapping Arlington Park I would guess you are on the short end of the stick. The place is truly a trainers shell game. At the end of the season the same 15 trainers will have 85% of all the money and the top 15 jockeys will be all comparable in wins. Yes the little guy will get the odd win but that's expected. A good handicapper brought to my attention the break and grab hold that the jockey's do from the gate. He said in sprints in routes they all do it and you will never see riders ride so high. So I have spent time watching and it is pretty apparent that this is not normal. I never liked Arlington so this is not sour grapes but for me it was a real eye opener race after race I watched. Take a look before you invest.

[alydar_ David]

Interesting observation.

A friend has had many of his horses run up there over the years. I copy & pasted and sent him your post, trotman.

I'm curious to see what he says.

I'll post his response.

[alydar_ David]

My friend wrote back. I guess I should mention he's got about 30 thoroughbreds he races throughout the country. So, he's familiar with quite a few tracks.

Here are his words,

"Chicago is a hard city for an outsider to fit in.......just not AP but also Hawthrone and the old Sportsman Park.One pretty much better use a local trainer.
Some play more games than others................FairGroundsand La. tracks same way.........."

[wilbur porter]

I am a novice handicapper but I have always been somewhat suspicious of anything that came out of Chicago...Sports, politics, politicians, etc. I've spent some time handicapping Arlington and it does seem particularly bland, even and difficult to get a hold on...too many early horses and wire to wires for me. Last year I thought that Nakatani could have dominated early on but after a while the quality of his mounts diminished - and his winning percentage decreased and seemed to blend in with the others. Boring races.

[trotman]

alydar_David the next big black eye for racing will come out of Chicago, and Wilbur if you like to eat Chicago is one of the best unless your a ship in trainer then you and your horse go without. Big Frank runs the show.

[wilbur porter]

I don't know Trotman, I've seen a few trainers in Hollywood and Santa Anita wearing large sunglasses every year to hide those black eyes during some of those big stakes...must be a little camera shy in those barns. The black eyes keep coming but the powers that be don't care as long as they get theirs - I take that back...Chicago does have great museums.

[albatross]

Wilbur don't know exactly what your saying.But wayne catalano been at or near top for twety over least 15yr.The old detroit race course gerald bennett samething seems pretty much same no matter where you go jocky are at or near top at any track they ride in state regularly pretty much same harness tracks to maybe wrong

[wilbur porter]

Didn't mean much. Sorry, there are probably many excellent. honest trainers out there. But there are perhaps others who take the shortcuts - C02, etc. Perhaps I am a little too suspicious about the value of money. Maybe it's an issue of control. One owner recently was found to have beibed a trainer to throw a race - but the trainer was honest and turned him in.

[trotman]

And who is leading the way at Arlington none other than Mid-West with local Roger Brueggemann training. They are winning up to yesterday at 20% and 57.94% overall in North America. William Stiritz a long time Chicago owner, his horses are winning at a 21% clip and 44.11% overall in North America. Big Frank Calabrese is flying under the radar at Arlington right now but his horses are winning at a 45.94% clip in North America and I don't have to mention the tracks you can pretty well figure that out. The fellow that brought all of this to my attention also said you want to see a race beyond belief look at any race that former owner and Twin Spires board member Richard Duchossis has in an Arlington race. it's like he has a black book on everyone. The whole race will be a joke with everyone trying to let his horse win. He said it's a wonder 60 Minutes hasn't picked up on the cheating that goes on there.

[pktruckdriver]

What about Ness, and the guy who was claiming all those horses a year or so ago, and was real close to the all-time win total?


I will going to AP this weekend, should I just not wager there, or do you suggest a strategy for me to use that might work for me there. Which Trainer and Jock's should I flat bet on, as I use RDSS there and do so so, not a good as I do at NYRA tracks, because I know NY better than Chicago.

Honesty in horse racing is part of the handicapping process, knowing your track and trainers, and jockey's, Jonny V at NYRA , Deshawn and Oswald at Mountaineer, and so on...

But seriously , I plan to attend the gathering at AP this weekend and could use and info you would be willing to share with me, please


Thanks

Patrick

[trotman]

Patrick, there is no rhyme nor reason to what wins at Arlington. If you read my first post I do not play Arlington, so my friend I have nothing to offer. What
I can say is that using RDSS is the right way to go but chances are you will perish not because of the software but because of the games. Stick to what you know and play that way.
To me just because you are there this weekend is pretty weak to jump into that cess pool of games. With intertrack wagering bet your tracks and enjoy a beer and burger.

[pktruckdriver]

Good advice, thank you , I think I will listen to you, and just have fun, without the beer, I do not drink, but root beer (float) taste's great, sometimes, especially with a BBQ Burger.

Sad to see this , but may I ask what tracks, or track do you see as the most honest, if any? Most playable? NYRA? GP? Woodbine?


Just curious, no answer is really necessary, thou.


Patrick

[wilbur porter]

Actually the latest black eye for the industry is something called "Dermorphin", a pain suppressant that blocks pain and helps the horse run much faster than it ordinarily could. So far it's been found in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas. Evidently cobra venom is even a more effective drug. Though I am a neophyte in handicapping, I am well versed in the ways of this world ( a little background in medicine). When I repeatedly watch good horses suddenly become "great", when I repeatedly watch these same horses have sudden "career ending" injuries just as they suddenly "become great", when I watch what goes on at Parx, The New York Circuit, Kentucky (I believe the above mentioned owner in the bribery case in Kentucky, a very successful one at that, received about a 30 day suspension), the California circuit, etc, I would be stupid to believe that I'm playing on an even field. But alas, I love the game. There are honest politicians, but they probably never will be great.

[trotman]

Patrick this is only my opinion. Woodbine runs a tight program and they enforce the law. There are many trainers we all talk about that will not ship in to Woodbine because they are on top of the game and have no idea what they test for. I play New York, Keeneland, California, Gulfstream and the odd time Fairgrounds. I laugh at trainers such as D.Wayne that says Woodbine is a mud patch, granted that was before the polytrack. But in my opinion again if you had anything to race there the money is certainly there so there must be another reason. Don't get me wrong if I find value and the pool is big enough at any track I'll make the bet but in many cases a $200 win bet I can't get up because of pool size which makes Woodbine a good venue because of field size. Enjoy Chicago this weekend, outside of their racing it's a great city.

[alydar_ David]

Actually the latest black eye for the industry is something called "Dermorphin", a pain suppressant that blocks pain and helps the horse run much faster than it ordinarily could. So far it's been found in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas. Evidently cobra venom is even a more effective drug. Though I am a neophyte in handicapping, I am well versed in the ways of this world ( a little background in medicine). When I repeatedly watch good horses suddenly become "great", when I repeatedly watch these same horses have sudden "career ending" injuries just as they suddenly "become great", when I watch what goes on at Parx, The New York Circuit, Kentucky (I believe the above mentioned owner in the bribery case in Kentucky, a very successful one at that, received about a 30 day suspension), the California circuit, etc, I would be stupid to believe that I'm playing on an even field. But alas, I love the game. There are honest politicians, but they probably never will be great.

There's an article about Dermorphin, also known as "The Tree Frog Drug", in today's Paulick Report:

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http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/the-tree-frog-drug-combating-the-latest-racetrack-cocktail/

[lsosa54]

One of the guys on PA was talking about something called ITPP (hopefully I spelled it right) which I guess really enhances performance but there's no test for it yet. Maybe we should try some of that snake venom, frog juice, or ITPP and see if we can turn back the clock on our old bones!

[trotman]

From what I understand Japan developed a test and the Ontario Racing Commission in partnership with Woodbine and the Pennsylvania Racing Commission were going to split the costs of development with Japan but then Pennsylvania had reservations and backed out so the bill was Japan's and Ontario's. So the 2 juristictions that have a test is Japan and Ontario.

[atkinsrr]

THANK YOU GUYS for posting these comments...I rarely hndcp or wager AP unless it's
Arlington Million day...when I have hcp AP in the past my numbers never seemed to make any sense as to what was winning..so I started concentrating on other tracks. you can get winners there if you can figure who's going to the front first......everything that you guys are saying is one of the reasons that most of my wagers involve stakes races where there is too much money involved to "mess around" with a race......best of luck to all