BillV

[Bill V.]

This is my July Contest Thread

[Bill V.]

7/4 Parx race 4

20$ Place # 5 $40 W/P # 7

Screens to follow

[Bill V.]

The 5 wins and Pays $36.00

Here are my screens I used the best of last three -
I hid the 4 but should of had something on the win end for the 5

27742

27743

27744

[Bill V.]

WO 7/6 Race 7


$40 win 3 and 4
$10 place 3 and 4

Screens to follow

[Bill V.]

The 4 placed but the 2 at 7/2 was possible


27781

27782

27783

[Bill V.]

7/7/12

$40 win # 2 $ 60 win # 7

Turf

Screens to follow

[Bill V.]

. The 2 was off over 1 year but with excellent works and multible wins against many maiden only winners gets it done at 5/2

I mistyped my bet, as per Doc's guidelines I wanted to bet 60/40
low odds and best value
I should have bet $60 on the 2 and $40 on the 7

here are my readouts
27793
27794
27795

27796

[Bill V.]

BHP race 9
$70 win # 6
$ 30 place #2

Tough race for me I'm betting # 2 Richards Kid this comes from my heart more than any readout He is one of my all time favorites

A real "KGEN" money maker for me years ago

Good Skill

Bill

27812

[Bill V.]

Game On Dude wins


27813

[Bill V.]

BHP Race 4 7/8/12

I will hide the 4 and go with the 1 and 2

$50 Win # 1 $20 win $30 place # 2

GS
Bill

[Bill V.]

Very tough race to wagercap as the 1 and 2 went up and down in odds
between 2/1 and 4/1

The 4 split my bets But it worked out

My four contenders
The BLBL
Dream Race Segs

27824
27825
27826
27827

[Bill V.]

BHP race 8 7/8

$40 win 3 and 8 $20 Place 8

[Bill V.]

The 8 come in and pays $14

27834
I used a turf line for this cusion track sprint race
Here is the winner . I noticed it had 4 PLUS races sprinting at Betfair/Hollywood
27835

I noticed on the first run through there was a lot of early speed
here are the entries I saw a E8 a E7 and a EP7
27837
I wanted to bet the two best LP and DEC horses since I only had 4 contenders This was the reason I went to the 4th ranked :8: and 2nd ranked :3:
27836

[Bill V.]

Suff race 2 7/9/12

$40 win # 3
$25 win # 5 and $35 Place 5

[Bill V.]

Don't think I got it in on time will wait for the official off time

[Bill V.]

Suff race 2 7/9/12

$40 win # 3
$25 win # 5 and $35 Place 5

Don't think I got it in on time will wait for the official off time


No I just missed. As Doc said there really are no excuses for getting shut out
The # 1 reason for getting shut out is INDISION at that was my problem here

27850

[pktruckdriver]

The 8 come in and pays $14

27834
I used a turf line for this cusion track sprint race
Here is the winner . I noticed it had 4 PLUS races sprinting at Betfair/Hollywood
27835

I noticed on the first run through there was a lot of early speed
here are the entries I saw a E8 a E7 and a EP7
27837
I wanted to bet the two best LP and DEC horses since I only had 4 contenders This was the reason I went to the 4th ranked :8: and 2nd ranked :3:
27836

Bill I am curious where those Red +'s came from, did you put them into your screen shot, or do they come from RDSS, if so I been missing them.
attachment 27835
thanks
Patrick

[Bill V.]

Bill I am curious where those Red +'s came from, did you put them into your screen shot, or do they come from RDSS, if so I been missing them.
attachment 27835
thanks
Patrick

Hi Patrick

I added it after the race but This is how I mark the + (+) and 0 horses on RDSS
using sticky pad

Here is a video

27860

[Bill V.]

DEL 7/9 Race 8

Big short price horse #4 I will try to beat/ hide

$40 win # 2
$25 win # 3 $35 Place # 3

[Bill V.]

The 3 wins
27868

I bet the top rated 3 and I thought the 2 being a 3 time winner
against a group of only maiden race winners and being a fast sprinter
could go wire to wire
27869
27867

The 1/2 favorite number 4 was ranked 4th
I bypassed the 5 off 500 days

27865

[Bill V.]

Lone early E8

# 5 30 win 5 and 6
$40 Place 5

[Bill V.]

Didn't even finish typing as they broke GeZZZ

The 5 won but I was too late I will post the results official off time but I know its to no avail

Here are the readouts any way
The 5 was a lone early first time for a claim Wins easy wire to wire $3.40 $3.20

27888

27889

[Bill V.]

$40 Win # 2
$25 Win # 4
$35 Place # 4

Screens to follow

GS
Bill

[Bill V.]

The 2 wins

I just went with the top 2 BLBL
both were last line same distance (5.5) at FP

Winner # 2 had the fastest pace/TPR last race, Same distance surface
All of its PLUS races were at 5.5 or 5.0 furlongs

27890

27891

[Bill V.]

$40 Win # 2
$25 Win # 8
$35 Place # 8

Screens to follow The entry looks tough here

[Bill V.]

The 1A was much the best a MISS

I went with the 2 and the 8 the hide horse won @ $ 3.20

27929

The winner
27927

[Bill V.]

$40 Win # 5
$ $25 Win # 6 $35 Place 6

Screens to follow

GS
Bill

[Bill V.]

The 7 wins at a good price

27948

27947

[Bill V.]

$40 WIN # 7
$25 WIN $35 Place # 1-1a

[Bill V.]

The 1 1A entry runs 1-2

I bet the 7 at 5/2 but it got bet down to 1.6

I was worried about the 4 sitting there in rank #3
but thought the early pace would mirror the segments screen
I hid the 6 horse also at 1.6

28084

28083

28085

28086

[For The Lead]

Good example of Situation #1 mentioned in the post where the following link will take you.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8473&page=3

[Bill V.]

$40 Win # 4
$35 Win #6
$25 Place# 6

Screens to follow
The 2 is the hide horse

[Bill V.]

Results race 8

The 2 was the hide horse but the 1 got in there ahead of the 4 and 6

Some thoughts: I did not have enough support to go to the 1
its sitting there in rank 5

I saw the 3 as a possible lone early but the dream race /segments screen
and 6th ranked blbl took care of those concerns

Here are the readouts and the PP's for the winner lots of plus races
and 16 wins

28092

28093

28094

28095

[Bill V.]

$35 win # 1
$35 Win 2
$30 Place 2

[Bill V.]

Commentary

I went into this race because I have been doing well at 5.5 distance races
so my confidence level is up.

I saw 2 EP7 horses the 5 and the 3 The 3 looked like it was a beatable
favorite having been eased in its last race
28098
I picked my lines using plus or plus within a zero lines in the last 3 races

I only had lines for these horses on the BLBL I saw the 3 was ranked below
the 1 so Horse 1 was my first bet
28099
The 3 was a hide horse

The 5 was too early I have no records for MNR but 21.0 on the early /late
graph looked shakey

I landed on the 2 for my second bet It was just tad below on the primary
line score but had very good Supplemental readouts

In these 5.5 heavy pressure races I look for good LPR FX and HE readouts

28100

[Bill V.]

Here is the winner

28101

28102

[Bill V.]

$50 win # 8
$30 win # 6 $20 Place # 6

The 1 and 6 are very early
The 1 is a hide

Bill

[Bill V.]

The 6 tried but could not get past the 1
The 1 wins a 1/2
The 8 was there but faded

28202
28203
28205

[Old Arkie Gal]

I like your examples and explanations.

Pat

[buffaloxp]

thank bill
the best explanations in here, i leans alot form you, i have 1 question, some time i see you past you top BLBL pick and bet 2 and 3 pick, form what point you past, for me ,if i bet , i only bet my top pick,for w/p, that why i cannot make any money in my real betting,
thankagain
raymond

[Bill V.]

I look at the top 3 on the TPR, BLBL, and Segments/Dream race screens
I consider these equal and bet the two I feel are the best bets based on odds
I go to the 4th ranked horse if its a good vdc and it fits the match up
I also try to get 1 horse that is between 5/2 and 4/1 as my first bet
and a horse above 4/1 as my second bet and bet w/p on the high odds horse

Bill

[Bill V.]

The bonus race is too tough for me and in my daily handicapping I would PASS
I picked this race for the Bonus race , I wanted to give layoff and trainer specialist a race to show thier skills

I will take the safe root
$40 win on the multible winner # 2
$60 Place on the 5

Good Skill
Bill V

[Bill V.]

The 2 wins and the 5 places

Here are my readouts I bet the 2 over the 7 because the 2 was a 3 time winner and the 7 was like all the other horses, They each had just thier
maiden wins. I used the 5 as a place bet only
It was a binder improver and counter energy horse ( the only horse on the
late side) of the early / late graph So I thought it had a good chance to get second .

28321

28322

28323

[Bill V.]

7/23 Race 4

$40 win # 7
$60 place# 6

Hide The 1A

Bill

[Bill V.]

The 7 wins at a short price but the 6 places at a good price

Here are my thoughts on the race and the wager decision

I saw on the entry screen 3 E's with High Speed Points

28399

When I saw the 1A would be a hide I looked to see if the
TPR numbers supported a chance for a hot pace and who had a good FFR
I thought I would get 5/2 on the top rated 7
The reason I by passed the 2 and 5 was that I didn't think they showed
a good early or late pace advantage The 6 had a poor VDC rank
but I forgave the first race. It was after a long layoff last line from MTH and used its last good race from DEL last summer.
I figured it would be able to
improve enough off that race and this match up to maybe get 2nd.
Without a better VDC rank I didn't think it was a win bet.

28398


28400

[Bill V.]

$40 Win # 1
$60 Place # 6

[Bill V.]

The 6 holds off the 1 at the wire
I get a small profit on my place bet but I fall victim to the odds board

My feelings and betting decision was that the 6 7 and 8 had good EP ratings.
But I agreed with the segments screen that the 6 would prevail
I did think ( hope ) that the 1 would take advantage with its good BLBL
ranking and over take the 6, But I felt the 6 would be good enough
to hang on for place.
At the time of my bet the 6 was 9/2 and the 1 was 5/1
Another factor to why I made only a place bet on the 6 was the #7
The 7 had very good odds I think near 20/1 My feelings were In this match up
If the 7 did overtake the 6 and win I would feel very foolish That said
with my a back up place bet on the 6 even if the 7 were to out preform the readouts
I would be alright so I made the final call and agreed with the segments screen
and I had my real win bet on the 1
If the 7 did win I had a chance that the six could have stayed
close enough to still place.

These are factors of the match up that show the value of place that stats for thousands of races
do not take into account

anyway here are some screens and notations and screens of the actual race

28425
**
28426
**
28427

[Diane M]

This really helps me. I've only been on this system for 3 days so I really appreciate this visual. Under the segments tab; The incremental match up TS + F3 are the numbers to the right a "ranking order"? #7 & #8 were both ranked 3rd?
Under the BL/BL tab; the RS column are the numbers also a "ranking order"?
Thank you for your help..
Diane

[Bill V.]

Hi Diane
I was just getting back to you on your PM
The little ranking to the right of the TS+F3 are the same ratings as the
TS+F3 rating on BLBL
I really don't understand how the little horse icons are positioned
Every time I get an explanation I get more confused
I just look for horses that improve position from the second panel
and its been working great ( sometimes not knowing things is better )
28430

As to your second question Do you mean these numbers ?
28431

[Diane M]

Yes. Not sure what Val4 means... just learning the varable names. Thanks for your help..

[Bill V.]

Hi Diane

There are 2 settings on RDSS speculator and Val4

Val4 or Validator settings are how Doc Sartin left us his last program
Validator II

Speculator uses slightly different formulas on some readouts

This link will help you

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=52414&postcount=6

The setting you use is a option on the conf tab on RDSS
***
28432

Why Val 4 setting for me ? Its just a Coke/Pepsi taste thing

and the old saying If it ain't broke ....

[Ted Craven]

Bill, Diane,

The little numbers to the right of the TS+F3 and F2 (and most factors, whether displayed as a little horse icon or as a raw number) and usually rankings. OIn this screen, you will see that they match the relative position of the horses. TS+F3 means the average of True Speed (average velocity from beginning to end of the race) + Fraction 3 velocity. F3 velocity is shown on the Velocity screen (Horse), as is TS. If you sum the 2 velolcities for a given horse and divide by 2 - voilà, you have the underlying number (not shown) that we use to relatively position those horse icons. Then rank them. 2 horses are indeed tied for rank 3.

On the Segments screen, right side, the F1 icons are from F1 velocities and ranks, F2 icons from the F2 velocities and ranks. Etc.

RS = Running Style. The small superscript is not a rank in this case, but the Quirin Speed Points measuring likelihood to take the lead at the 1st call (a long standing, universal measurement - lots of Google resources for that calculation). RDSS calculates the Running Style (oten correct, though not always). You can change it by clicking on the little squares in teh horse's Original screen labelled F E EP, P SP S.

Diane - hope that helps. Welcome to the neighbourhood! (See you on our Skype/Teamviewer walk-through tomorrow morning).

Ted

[partsnut]

Hi Diane,

Welcome to the board. As you may already know, Bill V.
is the consummate expert on the Sartin Methodology.
He strictly adheres Dr. Sartins Teachings. He a very knowledgeable and a very nice guy.
You can learn a lot from him, Ted and many other members about the various software applications and there prescribed usage.
This is a close knit and very friendly group.

Validator 4 was a very nice piece of software that was popular a few years ago that had been used and is still being used by some.
It in fact it is incorporated in RDSS if you choose to use it.

The best way for you to learn is to ask questions.
I hope you enjoy your experiences on PaceandCap.

[Diane M]

Bill,
Thanks for this information it is very helpful..

Hi Diane

There are 2 settings on RDSS speculator and Val4

Val4 or Validator settings are how Doc Sartin left us his last program
Validator II

Speculator uses slightly different formulas on some readouts

This link will help you

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=52414&postcount=6

The setting you use is a option on the conf tab on RDSS
***
28432

Why Val 4 setting for me ? Its just a Coke/Pepsi taste thing

and the old saying If it ain't broke ....

[Bill V.]

Thanks for the nice words

Diane In response to your question on the PM about the race results

I use these for recent races
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inr
and for older races like the ones in the RDSS database
I use

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpVchartSearch.cfm?SAP=TN

As to readouts and I hope Ted hits this point home in your teamveiwer
meeting
#1 The biggest factor/ thing thats going to make or break you is contender and pace line selection
It will do you little good if you know what a readout means if the horse
is rated on a non comparable pace line

Good Skill
Bill V

[Diane M]

Bill V, I will bring that up in the skype/teamviewer meeting tomorrow. Once again thank you for all your help..

[Bill V.]

$40 win # 5
$60 Place #2

[Bill V.]

I may have wasted a win bet on the 5 :o
But the 2 did place

Today I would like to focus on my pace lines
I will show 3 horses

The 4 who was the favorite and the hide horse
The 5 and my reason to use the zero paceline
The 2 who did come through and once again ran a good race

Here is the favorite It ranked on to of The BLBL but not the segments screen
I thought ( hoped) that the horse had peaked as it went up the ladder
and would not win 3 races in a row.
28446

This is the 5 The last line is a zero race but its the first off a layoff. The
horse is back at Del were it has won before I have marked lines 6 and 8
This one won almost 1 year ago today at 6.0 at Delaware Park at 6.0
I saw the slight gain in the stretch I noticed its late running pattern on the
TPR screen and that it has won at Delaware late

28447

The 2 ranked well on BLBL and Segments and has been running well in
its last 5 races ( 4 Plus races ) and so at its odds I bet it to place
hoping I would have a double win if the 5 did pull off the win at 15/1
28448

now the readouts

[Bill V.]

The 4 is tops on BLBL but I will hide it for a 3rd consecutive win

The 7 is next but It ranks poor on the segments screen and has never
done anything in its Delaware sprints

The 2 is my first bet
The 5 is next and at 15/1
Being that it was a Binder Improver I swung for the big hit
With so many 1 and 2 rankings in Total Energy LP HE and DEC
as well as excellent rankings on the supplemental readouts
I took a shot.
and all these good readouts were from a zero paceline
but I had confirmation of the horses ability at the track
and distance

28449

28450

28451

[Diane M]

Bill V,
I almost understand what your saying. I had a great training session with Ted this morning so much information Day 4... Thank you for your visual information this really helps me..

[Bill V.]

Hi Diane
I guess "almost" understanding me is a tribute to your skill :)
My spelling and grammer skills are very poor.

Btw The 5 and Budman's 3 horse are what I call Binder Improvers
Both my 5 and Budmans 3 have excellent VDC readouts but
rank 4th on BLBL these types often pay well.
I only use BI's when all the contenders pace line distances are
from the same distance sprint or route
When there is a mix of sprinters and routers I ignore Binder improvers

GS
Bill

[Bill V.]

Race 9 7/29

$60 Win #6
$40 win 4

[Bill V.]

But I don't think I made it on time
I can only hope I will need to wait for the official off time
but here are the results

28586

28584

28586

[Bill V.]

No good off time was 8:09 not a full minute since post was at 8:07

anyway here are some looks

The 6 gets a good position at the first call
28587
**
The 6 moves up at the 1/2

**
28588
In the stretch can the 6 get up in time ?

28589

**
The 6 wins by a nose
28590

[Midland333]

Bill
Tough loss because of the off time but it does say a lot about who you are and what your all about making the honest call.
YOU GET IT
WINNING IS PEANUTS COMPARED TO WHAT WE CAN LEARN WITH THIS HANDICAPPING EXERCISE EACH MONTH.

Thanks everyone for participating---its the cheapest entertainment I've had in years.

[Diane M]

Bill V,
Once again thanks for your visuals that really helps me.

[Bill V.]

Bill
Tough loss because of the off time but it does say a lot about who you are and what your all about making the honest call.
YOU GET IT
WINNING IS PEANUTS COMPARED TO WHAT WE CAN LEARN WITH THIS HANDICAPPING EXERCISE EACH MONTH.

Bill V,
Once again thanks for your visuals that really helps me. hanks everyone for participating---its the cheapest entertainment I've had in years


Thank you Diane and Midland

[Bill V.]

I will wait till as close to post time as I can
But I have to be careful not to wait too long as what happened at Praire Meadows
last night in race 8.

Anyway my top 3 contenders in the race are 6 2 and 8

I will just wagercap these 3, I will bet the horse closes to 5/2 as my first bet
for my second bet I will take the one of these two with the higher odds

28611

[Bill V.]

$40 Win # 8
$25 Win # 2
$35 Place # 2

I am alive to the hide horse #6 in the pick 3

screens to follow

Good Skill

Bill V.

[Bill V.]

The 6 puts the 2 and 8 away at the top of the stretch

28612

28613

[Diane M]

Congratulations I see the 6 won..

[Bill V.]

Looks like Gfnut gandalph380 and BuffaloXP all hit the bonus race :)

I singled the 6 in a $.50 pick 3
I'm alive to the 1 9 6 in the Molly Pitcher


28616

[Bill V.]

$40 win #2
$60 Place #5

Good Skill
Its been a great month lets go out with a plus

Bill