Possible Error In RDSS Adjusted Times

[partsnut]

I was studying a race that Jeff had posted on July 28th and looked at the equalized and adjusted times from RDSS.
It was brought to my attention that the adjusted times represented at the
2nd call were unrealistic and way too fast.
I have to agree.

I believe that Ted should look at the adjusted RDSS screens and numbers and possibly correct the obvious error.

[Bill V.]

Hi Bill H.

I at one time worried about the adjusted numbers too.
But I found that by trying to re adjust the numbers myself
caused me to loose confidence and races.

The numbers for some tracks and distances are unexplainable
The trick is to accept that they are all adjusted to "Sartin Downs"
so even though they might not show reality, all tracks, distances and surfaces get
adjusted the same way, In this procedure, of course some tracks or distances will
be more accurate then others.

Outside of a electronic method like Trackus,that could be hand entered into a
program what else can we do ? Even accurate would be accurate but then the track variant issue still would be subject to somebody opinion
Any data sorce, Beyer number "sheets" or any track/race data is still heavily influenced by somebodys opinion
Trackmaster does need to evaluate some issues but Its not RDSS's fault
This type of issue goes back to the very beginning of downloaded data in to Sartin programs
Doc used to say " If it is flawed Its still better than whats second best"

Hope to see you do well as always

Bill

[partsnut]

Bill V.
Trackmaster does need to evaluate some issues but Its not RDSS's fault
This type of issue goes back to the very beginning of downloaded data in to Sartin programs
Doc used to say " If it is flawed Its still better than whats second best"
Bill,

I agree with you. The RDSS software is excellent and it's not the fault of Ted or the software.
Possibly, Ted should re-address this long standing issue with Trackmaster and have them correct their data files.
I don't think this problem would occur with BRIS, HSW or Post Time Daily data files.

It is hard for me to believe that in a game of precision and accuracy and where the data is our primary tool that one should accept or be content with flawed or inaccurate numbers.

Bill V.
Doc used to say " If it is flawed Its still better than whats second best"

I think what Doc meant at the time he made the statement above was that something is better then nothing. At that time, this may have been true and the only alternative.
However, in todays world of high technology I feel that does not hold true anymore and is not a valid statement. The problem should be addressed and corrected by Trackmaster.

[Bill V.]

Hi Bill

No I am certian Doc's quote is in responce to this very issue
As I recall the track in question was Gulfstream Park
The Issue of times being this much or that much off
disturbed some clients but only in regard to how the Sartin Normalized
Adjusted and Equalized numbers were calculated
Remember this The adjusted numbers RDSS shows are unique to trackmaster clients These numbers are not the equibase numbers that all other data
files mirror
This all is written about in a follow up I will research this further
The point I was bringing up is not who has a beter product,

I am confident the powers that be at Trackmaste/eqiubase and
with Ted's input
problems will be addressed and repaired

[partsnut]

Hi Bill,

I have no doubt that Ted will address this because he wants his clients to win.
Ted is a very bright fellow and wants his product to be efficient.

I have the utmost confidence that he will get the problem corrected.

I did 3 WOX races this evening and I used the speed numbers from the BRIS PP Generator. These numbers are very similar to the Beyer numbers.
I used them with Synergism 4 which allows the user to set up for Beyer numbers.
The outcome should be interesting and this may yet give Ted another option.

If you are so inclined, you may want to run these races.
Here's what I used:
I purposely included mixed distances.
Syn 4 equalizes them.

Race-6
1-L3
3-L2
4-L2
7-L1

Race-7
1-L1
3-L1
4-L1
8-L3

Race-8
1-L3
2-L2
3-L3
4-L3
9-L2

[Bill V.]

Hello Bill
I can't be much help to you today as I am out of my office
I only have my netbook to work with and I don't have synerg 2 3 or 4
on it

Best I can do is show you the TPR numbers from the lines '
you selected and I must caution
your lines are non coparable to say the least
This is a 6.0 poly sprint
you have given me
1 5.5 poly
1 8.5 route
1 6.5 dirt
1 7.0 poly

Here is what i have using your lines

28771

[shoeless]

Parts,

Funny you posted this ,I did early this morning and deleted it as I
figured what's the point. Pino bought it to my attention about horses
going that fast at CT.

[Ted Craven]

I do want to respond to the originally stated query, about CT 07/28 R9. But I'm afraid I don't understand specifically what the question is. Could someone please restate it here, with as many specifics as possible. Horses Adjusted times too fast? Which lines again, and what is the number that is too fast?

Please remember that in RDSS, the Adjusted times, AND all the velocities and subsequent factors which derive from them ARE NOT BEING RUN AT THE HOST TRACK (e.g. CT here) - THEY ARE BEING RUN AT A NORMALIZED, HYPOTHETICAL TRACK (call it Sartin Downs). CT (and each different distance at CT) has an inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, DMR has a different inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, so does Hastings and Evangeline and Boise, etc. We could adjust all the different tracks and distances to TODAY'S track instead of to the HYPOTHETICAL norm track - but we don't. Same difference, except when people look at an Adjusted Call times and say horses don't typically run that fast (or that slow, whichever) at that track. True - they don't, but they're not running (in the program readouts) at that track.

It's understandable, but don't worry about it. I believe you could get similarly 'unrealistic' velocities showing up in Synergism depending on whatever Setup times you chose to adjust by.

To the extent that the adjustment system may be part of the original query raised by Jeff, the foregoing is my orientation, and it is similar (if not redundant) to the explanation given by Bill V.

Not to sidetrack a potentially valuable explanatory discussion, but the RDSS result (even using the auto paceline selector with Config defaults), worked out pretty well and, at least in this case, is a validation of the adjustment system:

28796

28797

Anyway, if I can still answer specific questions about the adjustments used in that race, I will try to help.

cheers,

Ted

[partsnut]

I do want to respond to the originally stated query, about CT 07/28 R9. But I'm afraid I don't understand specifically what the question is. Could someone please restate it here, with as many specifics as possible. Horses Adjusted times too fast? Which lines again, and what is the number that is too fast?

Please remember that in RDSS, the Adjusted times, AND all the velocities and subsequent factors which derive from them ARE NOT BEING RUN AT THE HOST TRACK (e.g. CT here) - THEY ARE BEING RUN AT A NORMALIZED, HYPOTHETICAL TRACK (call it Sartin Downs). CT (and each different distance at CT) has an inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, DMR has a different inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, so does Hastings and Evangeline and Boise, etc. We could adjust all the different tracks and distances to TODAY'S track instead of to the HYPOTHETICAL norm track - but we don't. Same difference, except when people look at an Adjusted Call times and say horses don't typically run that fast (or that slow, whichever) at that track. True - they don't, but they're not running (in the program readouts) at that track.

It's understandable, but don't worry about it. I believe you could get similarly 'unrealistic' velocities showing up in Synergism depending on whatever Setup times you chose to adjust by.

To the extent that the adjustment system may be part of the original query raised by Jeff, the foregoing is my orientation, and it is similar (if not redundant) to the explanation given by Bill V.

Not to sidetrack a potentially valuable explanatory discussion, but the RDSS result (even using the auto paceline selector with Config defaults), worked out pretty well and, at least in this case, is a validation of the adjustment system:

28796

28797

Anyway, if I can still answer specific questions about the adjustments used in that race, I will try to help.

cheers,

Ted
----------------------------------------------------------
Ted,

I have no fault with the adjusted lines other then the fact that they projected abnormal 2nd call times and for those that try and project how the pace will run, could have disastrous results because the readings do not relate to the actual track you are trying to handicap. For me, "Sartin Downs" does not come into play when projecting how the pace should run at a given track.

You analysis screen did a great job.

As I see it, the original lines would be good enough for conversion as opposed to the adjusted lines because Synergism is self compensating and will equalize the lines.
I have also concluded that Synergism 4 might be a better option then Synergism 3.
Synergism 4 gives one the option to use Beyer type numbers.

[partsnut]

Ted Craven:
I do want to respond to the originally stated query, about CT 07/28 R9. But I'm afraid I don't understand specifically what the question is. Could someone please restate it here, with as many specifics as possible. Horses Adjusted times too fast? Which lines again, and what is the number that is too fast?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Here is a screen shot of a screen Bill V. submitted for the CT Race.

Please also let me know which speed rating is representative for the actual track I would be playing.
In this instance I am talking about CT

[Ted Craven]

Bill H,

There is NO speed rating showing in RDSS which relates specifically to the current track (e.g. CT). ALL the numbers, except the raw ones on the Original screen, relate to the matchup of horses running against each other today, and are equalized, normalized and adjusted to do just that. My understanding is that this has been Dr Sartin's approach since about the days of Energy! in the late 1980s, though perhaps not the specific approach of Purdy or Brohamer.

I'm pretty sure you might mean something different by 'projected pace' than RDSS uses the term, but I would NOT use the Adjusted numbers to project a pace. In RDSS we have a Projected Pace tool based on the raw original data which you can read about in the Release Notes. I take the likely Early horses (Early's and possibly Early Pressers's) and use the Projected Pace tool to select the 1st call and 2nd call times likely to be set by an E Running Style horse. This colour-codes the call times for all horses and helps you to see which other Earlies are close to the proposed pace and which cannot keep up (and thus eliminate them for Win); also how the Other-than-Early Running Style horses have been able to close against such a pace. You can edit the initially selected pace if the pace-setter will not have to run as fast as its chosen paceline, and again the call times of all horses and in the Analysis section re colour-coded to show time proximity to that pace.

I'm not sure how that relates to what you do with a projected pace, but I use it in every race to evaluate the pressure an E or EP will face, along with confirmation by other energy based readouts (e.g. CBL on Segments screen).

If you want more info on RDSS' Projected Pace tool (after the Release Notes), perhaps you could start a discussion in an RDSS Forum (so not to detract from the Synergism focus in this forum). Also, in the Hat Check/Matchup area, you will find numerous discussions and screenshots from Richie showing how he evaluates Running Styles using the RDSS Projected Pace tool.

I would not use those numbers you circled above, from the RDSS Adjusted Screen, as a guide for what times will be run at CT (or any track) today. In my view, the Adjusted screen numbers are there to provide a continuity of flow showing how raw info (the Original screen) gets adjusted by your chosen adjustment settings, then becomes a source of input running times to derive velocity, then turns into all the various individual compounded factors, then line scores and odds line. In other words, a part of the progression from least adjusted (raw, Original Screen) to most adjusted (BL/BL Screen including V/DC).

FWIW, in my RDSS layout, I don't bother showing the Adjusted screen - I never consult it. I use Original, then the various compound factor readout screens (mostly BL/BL, E/L Diff, and Segments). Of course, others (like Bill V and many others) do use it and some mostly ignore the Original screen. To each their own :)

I hope that helps.

yours,

Ted

[partsnut]

Bill H,

There is NO speed rating showing in RDSS which relates specifically to the current track (e.g. CT). ALL the numbers, except the raw ones on the Original screen, relate to the matchup of horses running against each other today, and are equalized, normalized and adjusted to do just that. My understanding is that this has been Dr Sartin's approach since about the days of Energy! in the late 1980s, though perhaps not the specific approach of Purdy or Brohamer.

I'm pretty sure you might mean something different by 'projected pace' than RDSS uses the term, but I would NOT use the Adjusted numbers to project a pace. In RDSS we have a Projected Pace tool based on the raw original data which you can read about in the Release Notes. I take the likely Early horses (Early's and possibly Early Pressers's) and use the Projected Pace tool to select the 1st call and 2nd call times likely to be set by an E Running Style horse. This colour-codes the call times for all horses and helps you to see which other Earlies are close to the proposed pace and which cannot keep up (and thus eliminate them for Win); also how the Other-than-Early Running Style horses have been able to close against such a pace. You can edit the initially selected pace if the pace-setter will not have to run as fast as its chosen paceline, and again the call times of all horses and in the Analysis section re colour-coded to show time proximity to that pace.

I'm not sure how that relates to what you do with a projected pace, but I use it in every race to evaluate the pressure an E or EP will face, along with confirmation by other energy based readouts (e.g. CBL on Segments screen).

If you want more info on RDSS' Projected Pace tool (after the Release Notes), perhaps you could start a discussion in an RDSS Forum (so not to detract from the Synergism focus in this forum). Also, in the Hat Check/Matchup area, you will find numerous discussions and screenshots from Richie showing how he evaluates Running Styles using the RDSS Projected Pace tool.

I would not use those numbers you circled above, from the RDSS Adjusted Screen, as a guide for what times will be run at CT (or any track) today. In my view, the Adjusted screen numbers are there to provide a continuity of flow showing how raw info (the Original screen) gets adjusted by your chosen adjustment settings, then becomes a source of input running times to derive velocity, then turns into all the various individual compounded factors, then line scores and odds line. In other words, a part of the progression from least adjusted (raw, Original Screen) to most adjusted (BL/BL Screen including V/DC).

FWIW, in my RDSS layout, I don't bother showing the Adjusted screen - I never consult it. I use Original, then the various compound factor readout screens (mostly BL/BL, E/L Diff, and Segments). Of course, others (like Bill V and many others) do use it and some mostly ignore the Original screen. To each their own :)

I hope that helps.

yours,

Ted
-----------------------------------------------------------
Ted,
Thanks for the response. The original screen seems to be the possible export screen that I would use for export and conversion. Your information was very helpful and has clarified a number of issues for me.

I also am pleased to see that you have made progess on the setup screen
for synergism 2 and a testing release is forthcoming. I am confident that your efforts will yield excellent results.

[shoeless]

Parts,

Hope you and Bill V will be included in testing process,I think it would make
for a good barometer to see how good it works.

Jeff

[Ted Craven]

Parts,

Hope you and Bill V will be included in testing process,I think it would make
for a good barometer to see how good it works.

Jeff

My thoughts exactly ;)

Ted

[shoeless]

I dont know how active he is lately but you should have Richie test it, he
taught Pino and I how to use it.

[partsnut]

Ted Craven:

Please remember that in RDSS, the Adjusted times, AND all the velocities and subsequent factors which derive from them ARE NOT BEING RUN AT THE HOST TRACK (e.g. CT here) - THEY ARE BEING RUN AT A NORMALIZED, HYPOTHETICAL TRACK (call it Sartin Downs). CT (and each different distance at CT) has an inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, DMR has a different inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, so does Hastings and Evangeline and Boise, etc. We could adjust all the different tracks and distances to TODAY'S track instead of to the HYPOTHETICAL norm track - but we don't. Same difference, except when people look at an Adjusted Call times and say horses don't typically run that fast (or that slow, whichever) at that track. True - they don't, but they're not running (in the program readouts) at that track.

ALL the numbers, except the raw ones on the Original screen, relate to the matchup of horses running against each other today, and are equalized, normalized and adjusted to do just that. My understanding is that this has been Dr Sartin's approach since about the days of Energy! in the late 1980s, though perhaps not the specific approach of Purdy or Brohamer.

In my view, the Adjusted screen numbers are there to provide a continuity of flow showing how raw info (the Original screen) gets adjusted by your chosen adjustment settings, then becomes a source of input running times to derive velocity, then turns into all the various individual compounded factors, then line scores and odds line. In other words, a part of the progression from least adjusted (raw, Original Screen) to most adjusted (BL/BL Screen including V/DC).-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From what it seems your saying is : The adjustments are used primarily in the process of equalizing the various RDSS screens.
However, the equalization screen by itself should not be used.
I'm assuming that the equalization factor is controlled by however the configuration setting is set up by the individual user.
If I so desired, I could completely eliminate the equalization factor in the configuration depending on how I set it up?
If that be the case, what would be the recommended configuration to do so? Would I have the option to completely eliminate the equalization screen?

[Bill V.]

Hello Bill H.

I found this for you.

I hope this adds to you interest in what the Sartin Methodology programs
are doing with the raw data from Trackmaster/Equibase
This is from follow up # 85

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=68876&highlight=sliding+adjustments#post68876



I heard from Ted and he really is close to
getting the RDSS export ready very soon

[Bill V.]

I believe just from hand entering lines for the last few days
into Syn 2 that the adjusted numbers are going to do fine
overall The trick will be to use comparable pacelines
same distance track and surface and competition level
No matter how much you adjust the adjustment
all Sartin programs are 100% driven by the users pace lines

29051

[partsnut]

I believe just from hand entering lines for the last few days
into Syn 2 that the adjusted numbers are going to do fine
overall The trick will be to use comparable pacelines
same distance track and surface and competition level
No matter how much you adjust the adjustment
all Sartin programs are 100% driven by the users pace lines

29051

Bill, Thanks for the input. I guess I will have to see what works best through trial and error. When I find what I feel is the best set-up, I will advise you and the group.
As of now, I will be looking at the original data. I do not know enough about the adjusted data but from what I can see it seems to be spurious in some instances.
Synergism as well has an auto adjust that has worked for me.
It is a self compensating program.
Conversion of the original data will be my first test.

I would still need to have some answers to my original questions.
Possibly Ted can address them.

I have heard from Ted as well and Synergism is very close.

[Ted Craven]

Ted Craven:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From what it seems your saying is : The adjustments are used primarily in the process of equalizing the various RDSS screens.
However, the equalization screen by itself should not be used.
I'm assuming that the equalization factor is controlled by however the configuration setting is set up by the individual user.
If I so desired, I could completely eliminate the equalization factor in the configuration depending on how I set it up?
If that be the case, what would be the recommended configuration to do so? Would I have the option to completely eliminate the equalization screen?

Bill, the adjustment of running times (and sometimes beaten lengths in the case of projecting/extracting to/from sprints/routes) by variants and distance and surface equalizations is shown on the Adjusted screen - analogous to the way Setup Times and other adjustments are provided in Synergism itself (the resulting adjusted times are simply not shown - only the velocities, compound factors and rankings).

Whether you use the adjusted running times for anything in your own handicapping is up to you - Doc Sartin made extensive use of these adjusted times, including them for reference in many race workups. Except for when her (or contributing members) showed original DRF or Bris PPs, he was often uninterested in what the raw data looked like. The key to decision making lay almost entirely in the adjusted, compounded readouts.

As I wrote earlier - I never look at the running times in that Adjusted Screen. I consult the raw Original times and the various markups to help me analyse Form, then ALL the other velocity and compound screens.

Adjustments are governed by settings on the Configuration screen. You can tinker with them to your hearts content, switching off the Inter-track variant, the Daily Track Variant, the range of DTV included, etc. Note: you cannot disable the distance or surface equalization adjustments.

However: I do not recommend making any changes to those settings at all.

If you want to use pure Synergism adjustments (Setup Times), then simply export Original (unadjusted) data from RDSS.

Ted